Newspoll: 57-43

Lateline has reported that tomorrow’s Newspoll will show Labor leading 57-43 on two-party preferred. However, the big news from the survey comes from the preferred prime minister ratings: Rudd 70 per cent, Nelson 9 per cent.

UPDATE: The Australian’s graphic here. Note the question on the stolen generations apology, which puts overall support at 64 per cent. It would be interesting to see a state-by-state breakdown, because Westpoll’s survey of WA voters (published in The West Australian on February 11) showed 44 per cent in favour against 46 per cent opposed. Elsewhere in The Australian, that shameless Labor booster Dennis Shanahan reports that Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating has “overtaken the previous highs of Mr Hawke, on 60 per cent, and Mr Howard, on 67 per cent” – but with respect to Hawke, it must be remembered that the peak of his popularity was in 1983 and 1984, and that Newspoll did not commence operations until 1985.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

627 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. Just when the opposition Fan Club were trying to convince us that Swan would be the first parliamentary casualty, it turns out to be their own fearless leader. Isn’t politics a wonderful leveler.

  2. I reckon the question needs to be asked: How low can Nelson go? Is there any historical record that shows the relative PPM ratings? Has any Opposition leader ever scored in the single digits?

    And how long can that go on before a real Liberal leadership spill? The way Abbot’s been shooting his mouth off, it’s clear he regards himself as the Conscience of the Liberals…

  3. After 4 Corners tonight, they should do another poll, and see if there’s anyone left in Australia that would vote for such a pack of spineless mealy-mouthed dills.

    What a laugh, it only took Costello 13 years to realise that the Rodent was not a man of his word! Furthermore, he NEVER had the numbers to roll him, but ponced about all that time as if it would somehow miraculously be handed to him.

    Great show, great ending.

    Thanks Australia, it only took a decade, but you got it right eventually.

  4. GODddd. This is tricky, even mean.

    I received the Topfield recorder, purchased over the scary ebay.

    It arrived without a power cord, a loop cable, whatever that meant, etc.

    Sweating it out, in the present heat, I managed to assemble the bits. Took a power cord from my old trannie. Kept plugging cables in to the loop thing until I found a fit.

    Rang Topfield today. Reckoned I was on the right track. Did what one should do with the TV settings.

    And it worked!

    And now, I only want to instantly record Lateline, for posterity.

    Something I wanted to do, for a whole year!

  5. Re 4 Corners: Did you note, hidden among the finger pointing, angst and dashed hopes, Dolly Downer’s pithy assesment of why they lost? Here it is…


    That’s it. Nothing to do with b*ggering the economy, Workchoices, AWB, children overboard, interest rates or a thousand other sins. Nup! They were done in by –


    They’ve obviously done some serious soul searching and have clearly learned their lessons.

  6. 7 Ferny Grover – Perhaps this Newspoll will provide them some moments’ pause. Or, perhaps, the Libs will just keep walking right off that cliff stretched before them.

    Turnbull must be shitting bricks. Seeing all his grand dreams for a 2nd-term rescue of the Liberals going up in smoke…

  7. and what reputation would Glen Milne had as of yesterday

    Zero one would have thought.

    But on 4 Corners , Costello made him out to be a ‘sucker’

  8. Do you reckon the Libs will introduce a version of speed leadership similar to the fashion of speed dating. After a very short time (maybe six months) you move on to the next leader. Electorate can exchange details with anyone they really like.

    We can then get through the backlog of potential leaders so the Libs can start afresh.

    Unlikely though, these fads are full of sleazy types.

  9. The helicopters are just one of a number of defence procurement projects that are running behind schedule, over budget or don’t work as intended.

    On ABC TV, Mr Fitzgibbon said he was horrified by the procurement mess left behind by the previous government.

    “What I see horrifies me, I’ve inherited an absolute nightmare,” he said.

    expect loads more of these absolute nightmares

  10. On Four Corners
    And just gonna, repost thanks William. Cringe.

    On Four Corners

    Bears out my assessment ( and Arthur Sinodinos’) which was among the earliest signals. Sinodinos resigned after the early post-Rudd and Julia polls. First signal that someone within the Libs knew they were about to go down the gurgler.

    And the program, admittedly old news, does stand as a stark contrast to the public face of the Liberal Party as they took on each of the dismal, for them, polls.

    Pretending, as they did, that all was well.

    Not, must I angrily say, that this stopped, in fact reinforced their need to rape and pillage for themselves and their mates. I mean superannuation. Put in your million bucks for a tax free bonus. Before we lose office.

    Well, I just hope they borrowed freely, and are now paying the price vis a vis interest rates and stock market returns on super investments.

  11. 12 Greensborough Growler – LOL!

    Leader of the week, who will it be?
    Newspoll holds the key!
    It’s up to you (and Glen Milne too)
    Pick the Leader of the week!

  12. Well the two lessons the Liberals need to learn is that public displays of disunity as revealed in the parliament last Wednesday morning during the apology to the stolen generations and dragging out their version of workchoices through the senate committee process spell political trouble.

  13. As a few others have remarked, there wasn’t a lot new in Four Corners, but it was interesting to see the various ex-ministers having their say, particularly Costello.

    I think the buck should really stop with the Liberal backbench. While there is an argument that Costello was gutless for not challenging, there clearly was no mood to give him the numbers. Some of the ministers could see that change was needed, but it really required the backbenchers to apply some pressure for change. They preferred to go down with the ship.

    Keating had a lot more guts than Costello, but he also had some backbench supporters who worked hard on his behalf, and it was always foreseeable that a couple of leadership ballots could get Hawke deposed.

    Really, Costello should have accepted the leadership when Downer was on the way out. But Howard conned him. And Howard conned the lot of them with his line that he’d only stay leader as long as his party wanted him. Once again, where were the backbenchers calling for Howard to go?

    As for the latest poll, it’s no surprise and means little, except that the public like what Rudd’s doing. Particularly keeping his promises, I suspect.

  14. I could have missed it on 4 Corners but I did not hear policy interest in the future , only individual selfish self justification of themselves ????

    The references to workchoices clinically poll driven reponses rather than understanding the philisophical flaw inherrent in w/c

  15. 18 Ron – They still think they’re in the right on Work Choices. Hence the desire to tie up the repeal in the Senate. That’s winning them votes, I’m sure.

  16. 21 Geoffrey Keed – You can get 10% of a sample to agree to anything, however bizarre. The fact that Nelson has fallen below this threshold is just a sign that at least 1% of that sample watched the Sorry Day debacle.

  17. Geoffrey….the 9% would be the current coalition members….their mothers, kids, wives, a couple of budgies and an old dog that hangs around Hockey hoping for some leftovers.

  18. Denis Shanahan reports.

    In an ominous sign for the new Labor Government, they now lead comprehensively on the PP ratings. As everyone knows leadership on this and who is best able to manage the economy were a poisoned chalice for the Liberals under Herculean stalwart John Howard. If such a successful PM as Howard could not withstand this curse, then what hope the unknown and under qualified Rudd.

  19. The percent nominated include those who have yet to make up their minds, on which way they will vote, as concerns the 2007 Election.

    This percent of undecided cut quite a figure, not necessarily glamorous, in the first polls post election.

  20. Enjoying the party of Nelson’s 95 but in 3 years 45% of 2PP voters will vote ALP or LCP anyway.

    Can the LCP clone ALP with Malcolm & Julie
    How difficult to convert the LCP from the extreme conservatives dominance to
    ‘wet’ liberal philosophy policys or are these been driven out ?

  21. I’m told it would have been worse for Nelson but the pollster made a policy decision to accept maniacal laughter as a positive response.

  22. Mind you, no one but I seem to have noticed that Julia is wearing her old clothes and Julie has new and even very white attire.

    Of course, the lack of any paperwork means that one’s clothes will not be dirtied, with paperwork and so.

    But white does show the blood stains.

  23. 24 [an old dog that hangs around Hockey hoping for some leftovers]

    Wash your mouth out Ferny Grover, we all know via a hard hitting expose from Brisbane ABC radio’s Kelly Higgins Divine that Joe is a cat -person. He even pulls up his car in heavy peak hour traffic to rescue stray kittens.

    Hope you haven’t fallen for the propaganda on his website put their by people who don’t understand what a warm cuddly man he is. The story he told Kelly Higgins Divine was so sad I cried myself to sleep for a week. It also turned me from an avid ABC listener to a very occasional listener.

  24. 7
    Ferny Grover

    Astounding self-analysis, isn’t it?

    What an appalling bunch of suck-holes to ever do the conga!

    Chuck Admiral Horatio Hornet to the fishes, and bring on the Mad Monk for god’s sake! Even god would find that amusing, no doubt.

    And then when we’ve dry-retched our way through his unctious and sanctimonious bile for while, we can have Malcolm for a bit of fun and then when everyone’s bored senseless and thoroughly confused, they’ll chuck it to the chick: “Here ya go Julie, you’re the leader now. Who said we don’t believe in equal opportunity?”

  25. Rudd 70% – Nelson 9%
    Labor 57% – Coalition 43%

    2 losers here.

    Horatio Nelson

    Rooster Swan.

    wonder whether Turnbull,Abbott,Tanner and Emerson smiled.

  26. The bit I liked abou the rehash of Burke was Abbott saying Rudd was “Macchiavellian”, and clearly had a sneaky streak.

    Nearly choked on my glass of chardonnay I did.

  27. Dr Nelson and his 9 !!

    57-43, such a predictable set of numbers, I believe the Liberal Party are going into the Toilet paper business

  28. Tanner, probably, HarryH.

    A far better analyst, policy developer. But time will tell.

    Turnbull may well have a good grasp of the words to say, as Opposition Treasurer.

    Guess Kev will deal with, if it becomes a problem.

  29. Nonsense, Beemer, I heard him say on Lateline the other night that he suceeds at everything he does.
    So BOTH his marriages are obviously outrageous successes.

  30. Equally astounded, Bushfire Bill.

    Abbott apparently does not understand that he regularly deals with the Machiavelli types.

    I think he aspires too learn, but hell, if you can’t cut it as a Jesuit aspirant, hope, none.

  31. Rock Paper Scissors for the Opposition leadership anyone?

    to be judged by Bruce Flegg or any available member of the Qld Lib leadership.

  32. when Laurie Okes 7 Michelle attend the press Club , they must shake their heads realising both Shanahan & Milne are part of their professional ‘family’

  33. Now maybe I’m reading too much into this but I smell a double dissolution in the offing. The ingredients are there:

    1. A popular PM and government.
    2. An unpopular opposition and opposition leader.
    3. A hostile Senate
    4. Legislation that is delayed that the public wants passed ASAP (ie. abolition of Workchoices and AWA’s).
    5. A fractured and divided opposition.
    6. Spiralling interest rates that show no sign of reversing and the government having a ministerial weakness in Wayne Swan as Treasurer.

    Now will the coalition hold their nerve and delay the passing of Gillard’s legislation? If the government steams ahead and decides to force a Senate vote it will be blocked the first time. But a second time? Possibly, especially if the ALP does not negotiate or amend the bill. It all depends on the timing of the first vote and the 3 month wait for a second vote. If the second vote is before June 30 the government will have a trigger. If after June 30 then Fielding and Xenophon might save the day. Might!

    The opposition face a choice between public humiliation or an unwanted snap election. One foot each side of the barbed wire fence. Gillard in particular is applying the blow torch mercilessly with the intention of crashing through. She is one hard case who takes no prisoners. An election appears irresistable to me.

    November 2008 is a distinct possibility, announced on the Monday after the AFL Grand Final. The governement is itching for a vote, especially in a honeymoon period with the benefits of incumbency. Joint sitting in December. Juicy odds!

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