Morgan: 62.5-37.5

Roy Morgan’s fourth published poll of the Rudd era has produced a result similar to the first two, after a slight improvement for the Coalition at the third. Labor’s two-party lead has increased to 62.5-37.5 from 60-40 at the previous face-to-face poll; their primary vote is up from 49 per cent to 54 per cent, with the Coalition down from 36 per cent to 33 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

681 comments on “Morgan: 62.5-37.5”

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  1. 4 Corners and the 6 amigo’s …..each straddled on a barbed fence struggling to distance from the Rodents odour but simultaneously saying I’m loyal …but its not my fault we lost

    all soon to become a an invisible footnote in history

  2. Abbott – refusal to see writing on wall = lack of judgment/understanding of electorate (good leaders know when to run away very very fast from lost causes)
    Hockey – obviously wasn’t taken seriously (if JWH had trusted his judgment, he might have made a different decision; he didn’t, therefore is Hockey’s judgment to be trusted?); dreadful WC quote.

  3. Marktwain, have been guilty (have been?? am) of the journalist smooge myself, always a very funny relationship built on overt friendship coupled with constant distrust.
    I suppose some fall into the trap of believing the friendship is real and forget the distrust bit.
    Journos I have found are a sucker for the feigned indiscretion – you are indiscreet about something minor, so when you look like you’re being indiscreet about something major, they don’t question your motives.
    Great way of planting not-absolutely-100%-true information.

  4. Night all, It’s back to the other folk tomorrow. They’re actually doing reasonably with us. Mostly. We have a terrible problem getting critical people from the disciplines of medicine, social work, nursing and occupational therapy into psychiatry. If anyone out there can help, please let me know.

  5. Pretty spot on, zoom. The better ones amongst us can usually smell the shit from the shiraz, but like politicians we are normal people too. And we all play games. Glenn Milne was – is – one of your suckers, and I think that was borne out this evening on 4 Corners, reading between the Costello lines.

  6. It has been obvious for some time that the Australian people have felt the obvious benefit of having had the pus squeezed out of their boil, ie that Howard has been removed and society has regained a measure of civility.

    It seems to me that the Liberal Party is showing some signs of obtaining the same benefits from Howards removal. I find it hard to believe that the party could have brought itself to come so clean on any topic as it did tonight on Four Corners if Howard still infected them.

    This strikes me as being ominous for the ALP. A Liberal Party that can step on the mad rightists and religious nutters within could present an attractive face to an electorate in three years if the economy follows the US down the toilet. A party fronted by amiable types such as Turnbull and Hockey could readily project itself as “caring conservatives” who will take away all our pain. The electorate will probably not give the ALP any credits for the state of the economy they inherited nor for the nations lack of control over world events.

    The problem of course is what to do with the Alex Hawkes, Sophie Mirrabellas, Wilson Tuckeys and the rest of the lunatic fringe that is coalescing around Minchin, Abbott and Abetz. It would be sad if having had their boils lanced, they find they have a tumour on their right extremity.

  7. Zoom, just before I go and put my slightly addled head to bed, what are you saying about how pollies and others in the public spotlight should manage things. I might add, I’ve been skewered a number of times.

  8. 652 zoom
    Abbott still can’t read the writing even though the executioner has been bashing his head against it solidly since November 24 – JWH is still his confidant!
    I’ve a slightly different view of Hockey – I reckon the public could forgive his failings in a Hawke kind of way – but it’s several years off at best.
    I had a quiet yell as dolly dropped names over APEC and complained that he didn’t have enough time to sort the politics out, and it really brought home how little work those idiots were doing. Keeping their noses in the trough was a full time occupation and running Australia was just a hobby they indulged in on weekends…
    Hockey (and a large chunk of the current party) has been brought up in that culture. That’s not going to be good enough in a Rudd or post Rudd era.

  9. On Four Corners

    Bears out my assessment ( and Arthur Sinodinos’) which was among the earliest signals. Sinodinos resigned after the early post-Rudd and Julia polls. First signal that someone within the Libs knew they were about to go down the gurgler.

    And the program, admittedly old news, does stand as a stark contrast to the public face of the Liberal Party as they took on each of the dismal, for them, polls.

    Pretending, as they did, that all was well.

    Not, must I angrily say, that this stopped, in fact reinforced their need to rape and pillage for themselves and their mates. I mean superannuation. Put in your million bucks for a tax free bonus. Before we lose office.

    Well, I just hope they borrowed freely, and are now paying the price vis a vis interest rates and stock market returns on super investments.

  10. There can be no comparison between “Howard’s End” and the Labor version 10 years ago, “Labor in Power”. LIP was far more interesting and gave an in-depth historical account of the Hawke Keating years. What we had tonight was a u-tube version for people with short attention spans. I really hope that the ABC will do a Coalition in Power series.

  11. Thanks Mr Growler #667. I particularly liked the “Not very pleasant” comment. How succinct can you get? Seems to be an inordinate amount of equine enthusiasts in the list, however …

  12. 676 Steve – But Turnbull gets to ask all the good questions in Parliament! Surely he must be the Opposition leader!?! And he said “Sorry” before any other Liberal! Surely these are the defining characteristics of the leader of the party!

  13. 675 Blindoptimist, we were warned that a major event was happening by the increased chatter of the Opposition fan club on this blog in the past week.

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