Morgan: 62.5-37.5

Roy Morgan’s fourth published poll of the Rudd era has produced a result similar to the first two, after a slight improvement for the Coalition at the third. Labor’s two-party lead has increased to 62.5-37.5 from 60-40 at the previous face-to-face poll; their primary vote is up from 49 per cent to 54 per cent, with the Coalition down from 36 per cent to 33 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

681 comments on “Morgan: 62.5-37.5”

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  3. This might be as good as it gets for the Libs for a long time now they have locked themselves into the IR issue after previously doing the politically smart thing and declaring their IR policy dead. A backwardslooking opposition makes good poll figures hard to obtain.

  4. If these numbers keep up Horatio Hornet really will be sorry: sorry he joined the Liberal Party.

    Unsheathe thy 24ct gold dagger Lord Moneybags of Wentworth, the Poisoned Chalice of Howard’s Legacy is yours for the taking.

  5. 4
    Fagin

    Indeed, Rainmaker lurks, but the Mad Monk swirls around like Howard’s Ghost, praising all things Howard and signalling to the assembled throng of nongs that he is really the reincarnation of all that the dear Great (Departed) Leader stood for.

    Rainmaker should beware the ghost of Howard, for it means to do him ill.

  6. This is the best set of poll numbers Rudd has ever had!

    This would be a 10% swing to the Government, the irony is when it gets out into voterland that the Liberals are blocking the changes to I.R then the poll dust will hit the fan.

    I think the only saving grace for the Liberals is what programs will the ALP cut in its budget and where will Interest rates go.

  7. I know this is slightly off topic but I have spotted a problem with Rudd’s I.R laws regarding his changes to Sickies no longer needing a medical certificate, this is plainly silly

  9. This week Rudd appoligised for actions past and buried in one hour, Howard’s legacy, quite an amazing effort really.

    Did anyone notice how many people said they where proud to be Australian again, those that continue to look for the worst in a people should think about that.

    Brenden Nelson was a little slow and didn’t pick it up before making his now irrelevant speech; who can blame him; it was suitable for the same old, same old.

    The Liberal party has had two days go work it out, there now is now no excuse.

  10. Did anyone else on the way to work have to walk around those big chunks of sky that fell yesterday? (Although maybe that is what happened in Mackay).

  14. Gus

    God has spoken to Abbott to tell him of his destiny:

    To lead the chosen Liberals through the wilderness for 40 years and 40 nights.

  18. Does anyone know if this poll was taken before or after the apology?]

    Before the actual event, but during the argy-bargy over the wording.

  19. yes, please.
    Abbott as leader.
    And then, when the polls plummett and the Libs descend further into darkness he can’t hide behind all the others as if none of it was to do with him.

  20. From the previous thread:

    [GP
    imagine that the concept of terra nullus,official gvt policy and various social/historical sources are wrong

    Do the children stolen from their parents deserve an apology on purely humanistic grounds

    what is your opininin of the ‘barnardo boys’]

    1. The concept of terra nullius is false, at least in the context of its application to Australia by English settlers. However, I would no go as far as some have gone and label English settlement “an invasion” for which we should be guilty.

    2. “Stolen” is a misleading term unless it is defined. If by stolen, you mean child welfare workers removing children from abusive and neglectful environments, then I would wholeheartedly disagree that any apology should be forthcoming. If they were removed under some notion of racial cleansing, well the Government has already apologised.

    3. Despite occasional stories of mistreatment, it would appear that Barnardo boys/girls were given opportunities they otherwise would not have had.

  26. Rx @ 14
    “God has spoken to Abbott to tell him of his destiny:”

    Wasn’t it just yesterday that Abbott admitted he continues to have ears only for JWH’s counsel? Given the Monk’s fulsome praise for everything Howard’s ever done, I can see that the Monk might believe him to be He, but please tell me that it ain’t so?!

  28. Not much speculation GP. It is all very ‘logical’ in a rodentine way…

    WorkChoices to legislatively sideline unions.

    Union membership dries up.

    Labor’s primary talent genepool – the union movement – shallows.

    Money contributed by unions to Labor dries up.

    Labor unable to effectively campaign and promote its policies.

    Entrenchment of Liberal power.

    You think a cunning political rodent like Howard the IR Coward did not foresee, in fact, plan all that?

  30. No 28

    Of course it is seemingly logical in the eyes of Howard Haters.

    But the reality is that despite dwindling membership (and subsequent fees) of unions, the ALP accrued a sizeable swing in its favour to take government.

  33. Well then, GP, it is a very good thing for our two-party system that Labor won the election.

    Because if they hadn’t ..

    WorkChoices would have been cemented into perpetuity (the IR Coward admitted this),

    Unions would have become slowly extinct,

    And with them, Labor’s viability as an opposition to the hard-right Liberals.

    A hard-right party without viable opposition trends to FASCISM.

    NOT TO MENTION what would have happened to the workplace rights and conditions of Aussies, now and for generations into the future.

  34. No 31

    Thankyou for reinforcing my earlier point, jen. Again, labels are your only strength it seems.

    I gather a proper “argumentee” (such disgusting vandalism of the English language) is one which subscribes to your world view.

  36. No 33

    I always enjoy your frivolous disregard of reality Rx.

    For all the nonsense about fascist hard right parties, John Howard was a profligate spender in terms of social welfare and health, for example. Indeed, Mr Howard was hardly an exhibitor of conservative economic thinking – i.e. rationalising government services and spending.

  37. No GP-
    an ‘argumentee’ is the opponent.
    And I think that while you are a hoot and all, you are not for one minute serious. (It was the line about discrimination against the rich that finally nailed you- even JWH would not be so silly.)
    So, out with it: William, Adam ..who are you??

  38. Howard famously self-admitted to being “the most conservative leader the Liberals ever had”.

    I say, “closest to fascist” in intent, especially given the ulterior agenda of WorkChoices FascistChoices.

  39. No 37

    Jennifer, I urge you to consult the dictionary with respect to the definition of discrimination.

    There is nothing silly about highlighting material facts.

  40. No 38

    Your continuing references to fascism are both unwarranted and inappropriate. The world’s most notorious fascist, Adolf Hitler, wilfully exterminated millions of people. No leader or party can scarcely be compared with such an obscenity of nature.

  41. GP@30
    “But the reality is that despite dwindling membership (and subsequent fees) of unions, the ALP accrued a sizeable swing in its favour to take government.”

    because most people had had enough of the lies and deceit,also worth noting is that the right wing drift of the liberal party just opens the centre up more and more for the labor party

    so the challenge now for the libs is somehow become relevant,representative and realtime

    adopting worst/serfchoices proved that the menzian ethos had benn thrown on the bbq of vanity and egotism

    some intellectual rigour and and clearly identified standarads would also help

    oh by the way would sorry day have happened if howard was pm

  42. There have been plenty of fascists in history besides Hitler. I find it inappropriate that you have drawn that monster’s name into this.

  43. Generic Person, again I have to say to you, on the seeming basis of your own superior economic management, see the recent article by Stephen Mayne, in Crikey, on how good these guys are ( rhe LNP, that is), I haven’t got the link, but if you go to Crikey and track back, you will find it. If you want to. Frankly, I think you’re just a troll and and unable or unwilling to engage in real debate

  44. GP and Rx,

    Please, if you want to engage in a slangfest, do so elsewhere.

    On topic:

    Two points of bad news for Rudd –

    1. This poll is irrelevant at present (unless a DD happens, which it may yet)

    2. Backlash over the apology may strike. Many support it, but many also oppose it.

  46. No 41

    [because most people had had enough of the lies and deceit,also worth noting is that the right wing drift of the liberal party just opens the centre up more and more for the labor party]

    Everyone here is using “right wing” quite liberally, but illegitimately in this case.

    If your main point of reference is WorkChoices, then I would suggest it hardly is a demonstration of “extreme right wing” economic philosophy given that it imposed more regulation on businesses. The legislation was complex and difficult to manoeuvre and did not espouse free market ideals at all.

    [oh by the way would sorry day have happened if howard was pm]

    I suspect not. Though the results of his proposed referendum might have changed his mind.

  47. GP #38,

    Other fascists much less overtly vile:

    Juan Peron (Argentina)
    Benito Mussolini (Italy; founder of Fascism)
    Francisco Franco (Spain)
    Agusto Pinochet (Chile)

    etc, etc.

    Hitler was the worst face of Fascism. Don’t dog-whistle your opponent by stating that Fascist=Hitler. It doesn’t, although all fascists are vile.

    FACT:

    Today’s Liberal Party is far to the right of Robert Menzies.

    FACT:

    Today’s ALP is about where Menzies was.

    FACT:

    The hard-Right of the Liberal Party is irrelevant and noxious to the electorate, as evidenced by the fact that the only hard-Right MHRs have gotten into Parliament by stabbing sitting members in the back in ultra-safe Liberal seats (Alex Hawke, anyone?)

    CONCLUSION:

    If the Liberal Party wishes to regain electoral support, it must rid itself of this drift to the Right.

  48. No 42

    [I find it inappropriate that you have drawn that monster’s name into this.]

    How absurd. It is disingenuous to suggest the notion of fascism is completely separable to Adolf Hitler.

  50. 7 BMWofVictoria – you’ve been reading the Herald Sun again haven’t you? You must learn to take that rag with a grain of salt. You will be given ONE day without a medical certificate.

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