Florida primaries thread

Voting has begun in today’s Florida primaries, the last to be held before Super Tuesday apart from Republican caucuses in Maine on Saturday. For refusing to play by the rules of the parties’ national committees, Florida has been stripped of the 210 delegates it would normally send to the Democratic national convention, along with half of its 114 Republican delegates. All 57 of the Republican delegates will be pledged to the winning candidate, whereas the Democratic primary amounts to nothing more than an opinion poll. Polls show John McCain and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the Republican race, with Rudy Giuliani looking very unlikely to pull off his Florida-first strategy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,099 comments on “Florida primaries thread”

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  2. Read the health care policy of Obama & Edwards……similar to ours
    not sure thats a recommendation but their employer based system is a disaster.

    Obama’s economic stimulus package….
    Such an economic policy would lead to a drop in the US dollar & ultimately inflation breakout when their economy is most vunerable.
    Definitively not a Wayne Swan calibre.

    Foreign Affairs…
    Not a strong point overall for any recent US President

  4. 96 Erytnicam, [a greater ability for attracting bipartisan support for his proposals as demonstrated in Illinois.]

    Just what is this Illinois bipartisan support you speak of?

  5. I think all the pundits are missing a very important point here about the significance of Hillary’s win in Florida. Everyone seems to have dismissed it. I think it is very significant win.

    This was a primary vote that is devoid of the candidates’ campaign, spins, lies, half-truths, pressure etc etc. The people were left alone in peace and quiet to make up their own mind. They decided it is to be Hillary 51% Obama 33%. I would have this type of election anytime.

    All I can say is Go, Girl, Go.

  7. Finnigans, the problem is that as it was a dead rubber many voters who would otherwise have headed for the polls didn’t bother. Whether this would have benefitted Hill-Billy or BHO (or neither) we’ll never know.

  9. 100
    davidoff , thanks had been over that site.

    The pity is neither Candidate is really satisfactory.
    But Hiliary’s errors are highlighted by the media plus there’s a strong anti Hiliary factor both here & in the US resulting in less policy scrutiny of Obama then there should be.

    Whereas on the Republican side they’ve all had the blow torch applied to them

  10. Finnigans- Wash your mouth out with soap! Or cut your typing fingers off. What is left for politicians if the campaign, spin, lies, half-truths, pressure etc don’t happen? It would be the end of civilisation as we know it. Imagine if the voters were allowed to make their mind up in peace. I shudder to think what would happen. We might even vote for the best candidate for the job. You are a very dangerous individual!!

  11. point of clarity re the ‘kennedy thing”

    … Senator Edward Kennedy, Congressman Patrick Kennedy, and Caroline Kennedy have endorsed Obama.
    However, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Kerry Kennedy, and Robert Kennedy Jr. (all children of the late Robert Kennedy) all endorse Hilary Clinton.

  12. Ferny , a non ‘Finnigans’ Florida campaign would result in a Hillary victory.

    The difference of 18% is too large to reasonably argue Obama would have won…..but it may have been alot closer

  14. Ron @ 112: What you say is the most likely interpretation I agree.

    It’s possible that Hillary’s last minute electioneering in FL brought out her supporters; it’s possible that more of BHO’s supporters stayed home than Hillary’s. It’s probable that the dead rubber skewed the results but we don’t know by how much (or in favour of who). In my view, Hillary would still have won by at least 10%, and probably close to the 18% recorded.

  17. Convincing win for Hillary – and as others have mentioned this proves she’s the ‘natural choice’ for Democratic voter. Obama will need to campaign to win. He’s only got a few days left to next week’s super Tuesday.

    It’s ironic, but Obama is also in grave danger of being a party establishment candidate if his endorsements continue. This will run counter to his messages of ‘change’ and ‘Washington is toxic and only I can fix it’.

    McCain won, but again only with just 36% (ie. 64% wanted someone else).
    He’s actually going to be easy to beat for the Democrats and not just because of his age. Why? Just in the last few days he’s admitted what most in Washington already knew – he’s “not really an expert on the economy”… Obama or Hillary will be able to beat him with this quote all through the General Election campaign when the economy will be even more at the forefront. The only way McCain has a chance of winning in November is if national security is on the radar again – ie. he needs an Iran or a terror attack.

  18. Finnigans- You must be male. This is what Osma says a female suicide bomber gets. Warning-Political incorrectness alert.

    In a new tape played by Al Jazeera today, Osama bin Laden reiterated that only male suicide bombers will be the recipients of the promised 72 virgins. “In the name of Allah, I say to you: No! Only men will inherit the virgins. It is the woman’s place to please her man; to enjoy the company of the other 71 women; and to care for the resulting 789 children. However, every woman bomber will receive a vacuum cleaner as a generous parting gift.”

  19. John Ryan , McCain in fact will be hard to beat

    Vietnam POW who on all opinion polls easily beats all Democrat & Republican candidates for credibility.

    Defence is always the no 1 issue ….he wins this issue even with those who oppose the Iraq involvement.

    Economy…he co sponsored with the Democtats a limit on Washington expenditure .He has an experience advantage

    McCain is getting ‘independent’ votes & left Republican votes

    Both Hillary & Obama have weakness’s & in my view not great candidates

  20. Sorry Ron 119, I disagree. When has being a Vietnam vet ever helped in being a candidate for US President?? You can ask Presidents Kerry and Kerrey and McCain himself about that one!

    Defence is NOT always the no 1 issue. 1992? 1996? 1976? 2000?
    There is nothing to suggest this year it will be. All polling has Iraq (which is a McCain/Repub negative anyway) behind the economy in importance for both Republicans and Democrats. Terrorism is also far behind the Economy as an issue.

    As I said the only way defence gets back on the radar is if there is a terror attack or Iran acts up or some other unforeseen event occurs.

  21. Phew!

    The Zimmer frames of Florida have spoken! Well, not exactly marched their respective candidates to victory, but don’t stand between a phalanx of zimmer frames and a safe bet!

    Mackers squeaked it in past Romnoidy, and Hill-Billy herded those Zimmers like gauchos (what’s Cuban for gaucho? LOL). It’ll be interesting to see the age/race breakdowns, but essentially the Clintons took a Pyrrhic victory with no delegates. (Not to say they won’t get lots Feb 5 of course!).

    Still, Obama only needs to poll more than 30% consistently to get enough delegates to stay in the race, and the more he stays in the race…

    But hey bludgers, so many posts and so many links, I don’t know which one to read first. It’s a bloody smorgasboard!

    But alas, where is Glen? I thought he’d be here to give a concession speech about what a great POTUS Rudy would have made, if only the voters of Florida weren’t so damned contrary!

    Oh, well, at least Obama got double the votes of Rudy, so they can’t really all be that stupid!

    Howard-Loser
    Rudy -Loser

    I can’t wait for the next endorsement! It’s the Glen “Kiss of Death”!

  22. The CNN polls showed McCain had the best chance of beating Hillary or Obama ,
    so to suggest he will be an easy candidate to beat defies the polls.

    The reasons are listed in my blog

    Romney , Huckle are real conservatives and much easier to beat

  24. McCain can beat Hillary. Probably can beat Obama too. But that races would be a closer call. Also the age factor is easier to bring up if you are running a 47 year old man against a 72 year old compared to a 60 year woman.

    If McCain is elected president, you could hardly see him running for another term. Therefore, his VP is going to have a head start for 2012.

  25. There is a rumour that McCain is a Manchurian candidate for North Vietnam and Obama is the Manchurian candidate for Indonesia. So where is “Hanoi Jane” fits in all of these?

    Another interesting link about Indonesia is that Lippo, one of the largest company in Indonesia, via the Riady family, was a contributor and on very good terms with the Clintons. Lippo used to own a bank in Little Rock Arkansas. The plot gets thicken.

  27. Can somebody please explain to me…

    If, for example, Mr Edwards dropped out tomorrow, what would happen to his 26 committed delegates? Would they ‘vote’ for whoever he endorses, or be free to vote for who they wanted… in which case do they publicly state their intentions?

    (obviously I’m wondering what happens if he gets out with a few hundred delegates after Super Tuesday, should the head to head race be tight).

    Is the Republican system the same?

  29. Well it looks like the pollsters were right about Rudi’s bad tactics. McCain has got the republican nomination sewn up now IMO. If Guiliani steps down its all over.

    As for Clinton winning, looks like the pollsters got it right again. Seems now we are coming to the bigger states teh polls are getting more reliable, or is it just coincidence?

    Anyway, I have been saying for a while now that it will be Clinton vs McCain and that seems correct. The worse the US economy gets the better her chances of wining POTUS will become. And its going to get worse.

    Interestingly, I saw the first few minutes of Letterman on TV the othernight and he started with a joke about Bush’s state of the union address being his last. He got a BIG cheer as soon as he finished those words (Bush’s last speech…) before he had even got to the punch line. If that is indicative of the position of the Republicans, and the MSM attitude to Bush now, then McCain has no chance of turning sentiment around IMO. He just won’t get a chance to get his message across. The airwaves will be full of jokes about the end of the Bush era. Its a pity to me, as I respect McCain far more than Bush, Cheney and Rove, but to me this contest is already decided (President will be Hillary Clinton for sure) even this far out.

    my 2 cents

  30. Mr “Unconscionable” is incontinent again!

    You can slag me as much as you wish in your snide and utterly creepy way, but we’ve all seen you for what you really are.

    I forgot to thank William for that word, it’s more than apposite it this case.

  32. Wouldn’t you just like to waterboard Ann Coulter?

    (Just joking!)

    What a twisted little thing she is:

    Of course, I might lie constantly too, if I were seeking the Republican presidential nomination after enthusiastically promoting amnesty for illegal aliens, Social Security credit for illegal aliens, criminal trials for terrorists, stem-cell research on human embryos, crackpot global warming legislation and free speech-crushing campaign-finance laws.

    I might lie too, if I had opposed the Bush tax cuts, a marriage amendment to the Constitution, waterboarding terrorists and drilling in Alaska.

    …ah McCain, you’ve done it again! And thereby upset the self-annointed custodians of all things ugly and deranged in the lunar right.

    This is going to be one hell of a show!

  33. Ron, we’re under a big tent here, but the pompous clowns that throw the elephant dung are less than sanitary.

    I don’t mind a bit of healthy argument, but low, creepy stuff deserves what it gets!

  34. KR 132

    Exactly right. McCain has so many weaknesses that the Clintons will exploit. And with the media tiring of the Republicans and the economy on the nose, there will be little sympathy for the “other side”. Again, I have nothing against McCain, but I just don’t see how he is going to win the big race, given that he will now win the Republican nomination.

    As for Coulter, yes well if water-boarding is not torture, then she shouldn’t object to its use on herself. But I would, even on her.

  35. Edwards can’t force his delegates to support anyone, but as they are handpicked for loyalty, he can say ‘If you supported me, I want you to support x’ and they will inevitably do so.

  36. 134
    Socrates

    And they reckon Democrats eat their own! She’s sulphuric acid, pure, concentrated hate.

    I know the NY chapter of NOW got toey with Uncle Ted, but at least they didn’t offer to boil him in oil and hoist his corpse to half mast! Sheesh, there’s not a skerrick of decency in her diatribe, and if you took her name off it, and changed a few words, it would sit comfortably on any loopy left blog!

    The irony!

    So, yes, McCain for the Republicans.

    As George used to say, (well, before they actually did!): “Bring it on”!

  38. I was able to catch a bit of Fox News this afternoon and saw the republicans give their speeches towards the end of counting. Glen would be disappointed now that Giuliani is history. Although I will say this, if it was a beauty contest, Rudy would have won the ugliest looker candidate with no contest. Man, this bloke could crack mirrors I reckon lol.

    Speaking of looks, Romney looks pretty good for a president, until he opens his mouth that is. Maybe he should shut up for the rest of the campaign, it could improve his chances.

    On a more serious note McCain’s victory was of significance, he has firmed a full point for the presidency in from 4.3 to 3.3, wheras Romney, todays other big loser, has eased from 9.00 to 18.00.

  45. 137
    Robert Bollard

    yeah, I can never figure how the cogs can get so out of whack that they can equate torturing a ‘suspect’ (and their ‘error’ rate is abnormally high!) with moral certainty of their holding the high ground.

    Yep, just torture any towel head with the name Mohammad and you’re sure to get it right, well, occasionally!

    It’s so creepy, twisted and utterly sicko, it’s beyond me. That McCain at least paid lip service to some ideal of human decency (let alone the ‘quaint’ Geneva Convention) against a barrage of these moral zombies is a huge mark of character in my opinion.

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