Florida primaries thread

Voting has begun in today’s Florida primaries, the last to be held before Super Tuesday apart from Republican caucuses in Maine on Saturday. For refusing to play by the rules of the parties’ national committees, Florida has been stripped of the 210 delegates it would normally send to the Democratic national convention, along with half of its 114 Republican delegates. All 57 of the Republican delegates will be pledged to the winning candidate, whereas the Democratic primary amounts to nothing more than an opinion poll. Polls show John McCain and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the Republican race, with Rudy Giuliani looking very unlikely to pull off his Florida-first strategy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,099 comments on “Florida primaries thread”

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  1. HarryH @ 1046 – Note that Obama’s promise to “withdraw ALL combat troops within 16 months” is not the same as withdrawing ALL troops. It still means that the 10 mega bases will remain under US military control, as will the giant embassy to provide effective American rule.

    Unfortunately, the only candidate who was for completely getting out of Iraq and letting the Iraqis run their country is out of the race.

  2. 1032

    And JV asks if there any endorsements from beyond the grave, well let me tell you all, (to use a Southern vernacular!), that Obama can raise the Dead!

    Yep, in Obama’s honour, in LA, the Gratefull Dead will be doing a concert, (although it’s not yet confirmed if Gerry will actually make it!)

    So, Obama raises the Dead!

    Beat that Hillary!

    (Apparently you can’t get tickets for love or money!)

  3. 1052

    That used to be Blackwater’s job, but regardless of who does it, in the long run occupying armies do not ‘win hearts and minds’.

  4. 1048

    Oh, sorry David, you beat me to it! (So much for answering posts before catching up on all of them in sequence! LOL)

  5. talking of the ‘dead’ ,

    if bill thought he saw the worst of Hilliary’s “love” after finding out about Monica ,
    wait till she reacts to him when Super Tuesday isn’t a landslide

    oh Bill, if you had just stood looking pretty without opening that ‘Monica’ mouth

  6. Gotta love that Bill Kristol (US necon who’s record on getting anything right about US foreign policy is utterly lamentable), he likes to write history first and then judge the players:

    One might add a special reason that conservatives — and the nation — owe John McCain at least a respectful hearing. Only a year ago, we were headed toward defeat in Iraq. Without McCain’s public advocacy and private lobbying, President Bush might not have reversed strategy and announced the surge of troops in January 2007. Without McCain’s vigorous leadership, support for the surge in Congress would not have been sustained in the first few months of 2007. So: No McCain, no surge. No surge, failure in Iraq, a terrible setback for America — and, as it happens, no chance for a G.O.P. victory in 2008.

    …so America owes McCain for ‘winning’ Iraq! Has everyone taken note of that!

    Of course, it might have actually been lost well before that, but of course Mr Kristol will not find out for some years yet.

  7. 1060

    hahaha! You’re doing OK for an old guy, and wow, for 102yrs old you sure handle the internet well, and not a trace of a Russian accent!


  8. 1024 Kirribilli Removals No I wasn’t saying Obama would be out of the race either. The longer it goes the more people get to know the candidates, especially with the money they are spending.

  9. steve @ 1052 – Yes, Oops. But the failures of the Baghdadsewage, water and electricity plants is likely to kill far more Iraqis.

    The greatest scandal of the last 4 years is that the American’s have failed to repair or replace the plants they deliberately attacked both in 1991 and 2003 in violation of the Geneva Conventions. BTW-isn’t it interesting that they used explosive bombs to destroy Iraqi power plants, but when they wanted to cut power to the European/Christian Serbs during the Kosovo business they used air burst bombs to deploy short-circuiting carbon fibres which caused only relatively easy to repair damage.

  10. A week ago Obama had momentum & endorsements & I predicted here Obama 49% & a 50 delegate shortfall but then some Polls turned abit on him

    But Super Tuesday endgame from Pollster (via Steve) by State shows Obama’s overall trend significantly narrowing the gap in many States , so the 50 delegate shortfall is possible

  11. 1065

    What’s been left in Iraq is pretty much a destroyed hulk of a country, and any talk about ‘success’ is sickening Imperial arrogance. But since the average American has no clue, they can proudly pump their military misadventure for gross political gain.

    By contrast, Obama’s Superbowl ad had some graphic shots of Iraqi carnage, with the clear message that they goofed. It’s amazing how long it takes, but at least now 60% of the US population want to get out of Iraq, and so McCain’s only really got a minority on that issue.

  12. A bit of locker room swagger from the underdog team who felled the ‘giant’:

    Said quarterback Eli Manning, “Everyone doubted us. We were the underdogs. No one gave us a chance. All we heard was ‘you can’t beat the Patriots,’ but the guys in this locker room pulled together and said – YES WE CAN!”

    Defensive end Michael Strahan added, “We were 13 point underdogs – that’s about how far Obama was behind Hillary in California two weeks ago. Obama, man, he’s our man. He gave us our rallying cry – YES WE CAN! Now we got his back.”

  13. And so, it came to pass, Joe Lieberman endorses McCain, and concludes his sickening ‘we are a nation at war’ stuff with this:

    After all, the Islamist extremists we are fighting in this war don’t distinguish between Democrats and Republicans. They want to kill all of us, because we are all Americans.

    …and shows us, if ever we forgot, that Joe is just another Neocon nutter who has to conflate a miniscule bunch of crazies with Islam (firstly), and as the greatest evil force on the planet (secondly).

    Let’s remember where this grotesque over-reaction and miscalculation has gotten us: a failed state in Afghanistan (it would have been infinitely better to have left the Russians to impose some sort of order on the place…now look at it!) and an even bigger failed state in the heart of the Middle East, with a festering resentment towards the US from many Muslims who would have at least been sympathetic or neutral prior to this clumsy monstrosity of a war.

    And so, in his best Zionist Zombie Uber-Rightwing impersonation, Joe finally endorses that other war mongered crazy, John McCain.

    Well, however would have guessed?

  14. 1078

    Ah, that would have to be a certain person who we ‘kill’ on a regular basis, and whose speech is all but incomprehensible.

    (HINT: starts with “G”)

  15. Guys, (in the plural gendered sense, I assure you), this should go on another thread, but it’s sure to amuse. From Crikey today:

    Those looking for signs of the new Australia itching to emerge from the now fly-blown carcass of the Howard incumbency will have been heartened by news that The Australian’s opinion page editor, Tom Switzer, is leaving the national daily for the short term peril of work in the office of temporary federal Opposition leader Brendan Nelson.

    …Hahaha!!!!!! The GG, now the OG, and now the Opposition Leader’s bum-wiper!

    Talk about a fall from grace, right down the S-bend!

    Sorry, but that tickled my funny bone a treat.

  16. 1087

    hey, thanks for that link, it’s worth remembering that Obama fingered the crazed neocons and that vile bit of calumny, Karl Rove BEFORE the war actually even started. The date was:

    October 2, 2002

    …and how many US politicians were so astute, so sure of what a mess this thing could turn out to be, and how unnecessary it all really was?

    Nup, the rest were mealy mouthed yes men (and women), who split hairs while waving patriotic flags but never once put it that straight.

  17. badmouth Cartman ?

    not sure that who could be but the Ann Coulyer of PB called me
    ‘ a cowardly dog’ the other night

    brought a tear to my eye

  18. @ 1087 davidoff

    thanx..impressive speech for the times(2002 yanks were frothing for revenge).

    make no mistake…i have stated that Obama offers SOME hope.

    the Clinton/McCain ticket is enough to scare the shit out of the world.

    my point about Obama though is, he doesn’t always back up his occasional anti war rhetoric where it counts. His speeches to AIPAC, the AEI and other bodies have given less reason for hope.

    i sure hope we get to test his mettle. America and the world need him.

  19. also it should be noted that in about mid last year all but 4 members of both sides of congress voted for the first legislative step toward a war on Iran, in exactly the same way they did with Iraq in 02/03. Obama wasn’t one of the 4 dissenters.

    Thankfully things have changed a touch and this next war MAY not eventuate, but………

  20. Well why are not one the 4 running for Pres.

    any incursion against Iran would be a disaster on many grounds
    are the 4 the only rational ones in Congress

  21. Krugman in the NYTimes parses the economic grammar of the Obama and Clinton health plans respectively.


    …and Clinton is the deal if it’s ever to be achieved (ie universal coverage).

    I don’t know how many people will be into the details, but the issue is HUGE in the US, and listening to them talk, from all walks of life, it’s one of the big issues in their lives.

  22. sorry my post at 1095 is mis-leading.

    the Iran vote was carried 76-22 with Hilary being the only one of the 4 Dem candidates to vote for it. It was sponsored by Jon Kyle(R), Joe Lieberman and John McCain.
    Obama skipped the vote as he said he had campaigning to do, and then criticized the vote.

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