Florida primaries thread

Voting has begun in today’s Florida primaries, the last to be held before Super Tuesday apart from Republican caucuses in Maine on Saturday. For refusing to play by the rules of the parties’ national committees, Florida has been stripped of the 210 delegates it would normally send to the Democratic national convention, along with half of its 114 Republican delegates. All 57 of the Republican delegates will be pledged to the winning candidate, whereas the Democratic primary amounts to nothing more than an opinion poll. Polls show John McCain and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the Republican race, with Rudy Giuliani looking very unlikely to pull off his Florida-first strategy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,099 comments on “Florida primaries thread”

Comments Page 1 of 22
1 2 … 22

  2. Oh well, after today we’ll no longer have to read about what a great president Rudy would make!

    What a godawful nasty bit of work he is! I looked over some his personal vindictiveness and vicious backstabbing and came to the same realisation as the folks in FLorida who’ve been polled recently ie he’s a creepy crazed mother, and he’d make GW Bush look like a Sunday School teacher.

    So, here’s to Rudy 911, the mayor of nowhere.

  4. Good call, Kirribilli Removals – you’re on the money. It seems so long ago now, but just before 9/11 Mayor Giuliani was on the nose with New York voters. 9/11 resurrected his career, and he’s been milking it ever since.

  5. The question is what precisely did Rudy do on 9/11 day or is it a media myth to show how reslient the US leaders were under stess

    I would have thought the numerous Fire Brigade COMMANDERS etc were the ral leaders that day (plus George reading kinder books being the standout)

  7. Not directly related to Florida, except in the fact that this state is one where acres and acres and acres of realestate is either being foreclosed or houses are left partially built and the rotting air of severe financial collapse wafts over the bright lagoons and canals of housing estates.

    Now that the horse has truly bolted:

    WASHINGTON, Jan. 29 (Reuters) — The F.B.I. has opened investigations into 14 corporations as part of a crackdown on improper subprime lending, agency officials said on Tuesday.

    Skip to next paragraph F.B.I. officials told reporters that the inquiry involved potential violations including accounting fraud and insider trading.

    They did not identify the companies, but said the investigation reached across the industry to include developers, subprime lenders, companies that securitized loans and investment banks that held them.

    The cases could lead to potential civil or criminal charges, the officials said.

    The F.B.I. said it was investigating the cases with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has opened about three dozen investigations into the subprime market collapse.

    Targets of the S.E.C. probe include the Swiss bank UBS and the American investment banks Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns, as well as the bond insurer MBIA. It was not clear whether any of those companies were involved in the F.B.I. investigation.

    The S.E.C., which has formed an internal subprime-mortgage task force, is looking at how financial firms priced mortgage-based securities and whether they should have told investors earlier about the declining value of those securities.

    …like Das said: “regulatory debauchery”

    Free enterprise: free to exercise humungous malfeasance and beggar the nation.

  10. Diogenes, that exit polling is very interesting, and shows just how much political affiliation tempers perceptions (or actually distorts facts, depending on how you read it!):

    AND HOW’S THE ECONOMY DOING?

    Republicans were more likely than Democrats to rate the national economy positively, though few in either party rated it excellent. A third of Republicans but fewer than one in 10 Democrats rated the economy good. Half of Democrats called it poor, compared to only about one in seven Republican primary voters.

    …so 1 in 3 Repubs can say the economy is GOOD! Whoa, the Fed’s just slammed interest rates towards the floor (more coming soon, BTW), George is out there telling them not to panic ‘coz he’s going to throw some spending money at them, and they actually think it’s “GOOD”?

    Maybe the word ‘good’ has a different meaning in Florida! LOL

    Or perhaps all those self-funded retirees are living in gated communities and just don’t get outside very much!

  11. KR: Those are the same “special” voters that think the Iraq war was positive and Dubya was a good president.

    No wonder democracy has flaws.

  12. If they’re not as concerned by the economy as one would normally expect (ie more like the Democrats), then the Romney “I can lead you through the economc wilderness to the promised land” stuff may not resonate so loudly. That will surely help McCain, even though the economy is the top issue.

    Romney: The Mormon Moses, lots of bullrushes, plus he’s got updated Commandments.

  13. Gotta go, just when the party is about to get interesting!

    Catch youse all later, bludgers!

    (And commiserations in advance to Glen. But hey, think of the upside, you can now pick another loser to flog senseless, and amuse us!)

  14. Although it won’t happen, how amusing would it be if Obama won Florida.

    It would be especially ironic for Hillary given she has now sought that the Floridan delegates be seated, and would make her look like a bigger hypocrite then she already is.

    The question would be: would Obama then ask for those delegates to be seated?

  15. “The question is what precisely did Rudy do on 9/11 day or is it a media myth to show how reslient the US leaders were under stess”

    Yes and no. Yes for Rudy, no for Dubya. Rudy got his hands dirty (literally and figuratively) in the WTC rubble. His conduct was contrasted with the complete impotence of Dubya. Substantively, Rudy didn’t do all that much; but in a time of crisis, his behaviour took on a lot of symbolism.

  16. agree , howeverRudy would have been told to do that anyway by his spin doctors. We’ll never know if he would have done it irrespective since so many pollies are ‘plastic’

  18. FOX NEWS EXIT POLL RESULTS
    Senior Citizens– McCain 40, Romney 31, Giuliani 18, Huckabee 7
    Veterans– McCain 37, Romney 36, Giuliani 14, Huckabee 8
    Hispanics– McCain 50, Giuliani 26, Romney 16, Huckabee 5

    WARNING-With 1/3 of votes pre-polled the exit polls will be less reliable than usual. Still its Goodbye Rudy!!

  20. Surely Rudi would wait on the Super Tuesday results before quitting

    One wounders whether the media support for the alleged success of the Iraq ‘surge’ has made McCain’s campaign

  24. Rudi is something like 40,000 votes behind, yes its early and I would imagine that the larger booths are not in yet and they may help him, but he looks beaten, I also thing Edwards looks set to finish third again, considering he is the only major southern on the Democrat side he has not done very well in the south.

    I think there is something weird abut the way Americans do elections, how can a state like Florida not be counted or in the case opf the Repubicans only half the normal number will be accepted, I’m starting to think America should cean up its own act before telling anyone else what to do.

  25. “how can a state like Florida not be counted or in the case of the Republicans only half the normal number will be accepted”

    It’s because Florida (and Michigan too), for self-interested reasons altered the timing of its primary in defiance of the central Democratic and Republican organisations (National Committees). So the central organisations are (threatening to, may not happen) punishing the state.

    It’s like an Australian state branch of a party doing something out of step with the Federal party’s interests (which happens all the time, think Qld Council amalgamations, Joh for PM etc).

  30. Max – Yes, but Edwards’ vote seems top be holding up, and Obama is close enough to stay alive for now, when you combine the two.

  31. Obama has won more delegates than Hillary, and is getting the insiders vote in the Dems. Hillary was the only one to campaign in Florida, in spite of a pledge not to. She was always going to win there, patricularly with the aging vote, when you looked at the demographics of what happend in SC – about 10% of over 65s voted for Obama. Obama is alive aside Edwards vote/s.

  32. Certainly looks like Clinton has brought out the female vote in Florida – 59/41. Virtually the opposite of the Repug proportion of females – 44/56

  33. Huckabee is gaining on Guliani – 20,000 votes in it.

    jv, I agree, considering this is a dud state where nobody but those who have time on their hands would bother voting, the results isn’t too bad.

    Open Question: Would Edwards, if offered, accept the role of VP to Obama in exchange for pulling out and openly endorsing? He’s only 54, and you would think that his only chance now of the presidency would be to run as the ‘virtual incumbent’ eight years from now…

    It would do no ends of damage to the Clinton campaign as well – very few people seem to actively dislike Edwards.

  34. Max @ 31- “Open Question: Would Edwards, if offered, accept the role of VP to Obama in exchange for pulling out and openly endorsing?”

    That would be great team, but the hard-heads in the party would probably say it could be attacked as 2 inexperienced blow-ins together. The way they think, they’d rather an experienced steady-as-she-goes VP candidate who would help balance the perceived inexperience of Obama.
    Not saying they’re right in principle though, because it would objectively be the best option for the US if Obama & Edwards got the top jobs.

  35. Open Question: Would Edwards, if offered, accept the role of VP to Obama in exchange for pulling out and openly endorsing?

    The open rumour of course is that Edwards is being lined up as an Obama A-G. I don’t know how reliable that is.

    But anyway, I doubt it. Edwards retains whatever ability he has to leverage a deal as long as he stays in, and he wouldn’t want to completely burn his bridges with the most likely nominee.

  36. Hey Pancho…the US system is so confusing to follow.

    You say that Obama has won more delegates than Clinton but the last time I looked (pre FL) she had won something in the 200’s while Obama was in the 100’s.

    Am I missing something?

  37. If Obama gets the nod, he will want a more moderate counterbalance in his running mate. I doubt he would choose Edwards.

    It’s certainly a thumping win for Hillary, but in the circumstances it can’t be considered a thumping endorsement. It’s a win in a meaningless primary, but a win nonetheless. It could, of course, be a harbinger of things to come on Super Tuesday as the large states rally to Hill-Billy. We’ll soon see.

    On the other side, I don’t see how it could be interpreted as anything but a humuliating rejection of Rudy. Florida has heard his well financed and loudly trumpeted message and responded with the Floridian Finger.

  38. Well the US is the land of law suits so IF Obama is in front of Hilary at the convention by the difference in the florida delegates each ‘notionally’ won,
    the lawyers eyes would be gleaming

  44. MSNBC is reporting that Times is implying that Giuliani is going to drop out to endorse McCain because a senior aide refused to deny the story.

    Gah. Hearsay at its finest. But it wouldn’t surprise me, Giuliani has stuffed this campaign up from the get go.

  45. Stark – some of the estimates at this stage, like CNN’s, include superdelegates who are nominated by the party and are generally members of the National Committee or something similar.

    Most of the estimates assume that Hillary will win the majority of these superdelegates. At this stage that is probably a fair guess, but it is only a guess. Continued good showings by Obama, as well as support from the Kennedys and others could sway these numbers.

    In any case, as far as delegates who have been voted for by the people count, Obama is ahead of Hillary.

  47. IF Obama is in front of Hilary at the convention by the difference in the florida delegates each ‘notionally’ won, the lawyers eyes would be gleaming

    The Democrats can’t afford months of infighting and uncertainty over their nominee against a settled Republican ticket. In the extremely unlikely event that the race is still open by the end of June I am sure that all concerned will disappear into a room and hammer out a deal.

  48. 41 It was always an amazing strategy for a candidate to come into the race this far into the primaries and deprive himself of months of media coverage. Last I heard he was out of money to pay his campaign workers too. In typical Rudy fashion their wages were converted to TV ads and all to no avail.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 22
1 2 … 22