The day after

A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per cent in the rest of Queensland; 1.4 per cent in Perth, 4.1 per cent in the rest of WA; 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, 9.2 per cent in the rest of SA (Mayo, Barker and Grey); 2.5 per cent in Tasmania; 1.7 per cent in ACT; 2.8 per cent in NT.

I think I can also manage an overview for the Senate, which has produced a surprisingly strong result for the Coalition and a number of disappointments for the Greens. Kerry Nettle is gone in NSW, with three seats each for Labor and the Coalition. It’s looking like the same result in Victoria, although Greens candidate Richard di Natale might yet take the final seat from the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan. The Greens also seem to be falling short in Queensland, their candidate 2.4 per cent behind Labor’s third for the final seat. Better news for the Greens from Western Australia, which turned in its expected result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, and South Australia, where their candidate looks likely to just keep ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion and win the final seat on their preferences. Tasmania is a clear three for Labor, two for Coalition and one for Greens, and Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory split one Labor and one (Country) Liberal as normal.

Assuming the Greens don’t get up in Victoria, and unless my late night/early morning arithmetic leads me astray, that points to 18 seats out of 40 for both Labor and the Coalition, three for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. Combined with ongoing Senators, that means 37 for the Coalition (one short of a blocking majority) and 32 for Labor, with the balance consisting of five for the Greens, one Family First and one Nick Xenophon. The Greens will thus not hold the balance of power in their own right, with the Coalition being able to stitch together a blocking majority with Fielding or Xenophon or an absolute majority with them both. Interesting times ahead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,248 comments on “The day after”

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  1. Sarah,

    Milne wasn’t as negative as Bolt about the long term Coalition prospects. But he did say now it is time for the Liberals to assess whether they need Costello atm, as he may be perceived as being too connected to the Howard era.

    I guess we’re going to have to wait a few days before we get any hard hitting insights of the future directions of the Liberal party. At this stage, though, it still looks likely that Costello will be elected leader.

  2. Electing Costello leader will be the worst thing they can do. He’s associated with the past, with Howard, with WorkChoices. They would be far smarter to look to Turnball for a completely new direction.

  5. Who in the coalition could we award the “Comical Ali” award too, as in “what american tanks, I cant see any american tanks here”.

  7. Swing – elected leader to an imploding party I think. If Turnbull is smart, he will let Costello shovel the shit for a while and contest after Costello looses at the next election. Hard for the libs with the amazing fresh talent elected into the ALP and so, so exciting for us!

    I woke this morning, so excited about the future, opportunities and the possibility that I could be proud of the country I was born in…

  11. I wonder if now the media in this country will start weaning themselves off the pollsters, none of whom covered themselves with glory this year. Remember all those polls that got you Lefties all orgasmic, the ones with Labor’s primary vote in the high 40s or low 50s? So what did it turn out to be?

    43.5%.

    Pretty paltry, actually, for an allegedly fresh new leader allegedly sweeping aside an allegedly tired old regime. I’d advise Labor not to get too carried away.

    Meanwhile, John Howard was up and about today on his usual morning walk. And he can leave politics with his held high, as the second-longest serving and best PM, and having left Australia in immeasurably better shape than in 1996. He can now enjoy retired life as a new grandfather, soothed of course by the millions his political career has earned him.

    Lets just hope this puke-inducing moral and intellectual slug Krudd and his band of retards and criminals don’t stuff things up too badly.

  12. Bennelong in the bag for Maxine. About 5,000 postal votes to count. Howard needs 2,700 more votes than Maxine or about 75-80% of all postal votes which looks to be impossible.

  14. I want to thank Jackie Kelly and friends for acting true to type. What happened in Lindsay gives future historians a hook to analyse the divisive thrust of Howard’s tenure. His dog whistle politics will not be forgotten

  15. Chino – Downer was starting to split at the seams a little this morning and I am sure it hasn’t even started to sink in. Someone who is talented enough to fit two feet in their mouths (Abbot?) might even give us some pearls of soundbites before the weeks end (methinks)

  16. Wooohooooo! Last night was fun. Can’t remember how many times I said “f#*k off Howard” to my TV screen.

    Now who were the doubting Thomases who warned against reading too much in to the exit poll yesterday?

  17. Another disappointing night for the greens, again they have spent the entire election campaign predicting great things, only to fall dramatically short, if they didn’t talk themselves up so much (or rather if Bob Brown didnt) this could be considered a good night for them!

  18. Steven Kaye, The Liberal Party recorded their lowest 2PP in history.

    Mr Howard lost his seat, the second sitting PM in history to do so.

    This election loss is worse than the loss in ’04 for Mr Latham.

    In that respect Australia has rejected Howard moreso than they did Latham.

  19. Swing Lowe, Milne doesn’t ‘get it’ either. Costello is not popular, was not popular, and never will be popular, even more so now that the ship has hit the iceberg and all but a few were saved.

    To try and claim captain’s rights after standing on the bridge through that disaster is not going to be seen as ‘new leadership’ (hmm, that’s a nice sounding slogan, maybe they should try it).

    Maybe for the immediate period while they’re still in shell shock, but as they recover what senses they have left, Costello will be seen as political baggage. All this huff and puff about his great experience, blah blah, will count for nothing when they realise he is also a corpse, and the stinking remains will be unceremoniously dumped.

  20. Thought Tony Jones on the ABC was quite boorish to all the losing candidates. He seemed to be equally rude to both sides, but surpassed himself when speaking to Cornes attempting “gotcha” questions ad nauseum.

    The main ABC panel of Green, O’Brien, Gillard and Minchin were excellent. Minchin’s professionalism and grace under fire was remarkable.

  21. Senate overall votes for major condenders..

    Australian Labor Party 3,993,501 40.74% +5.72%

    Liberal/Nationals 2,954,642 30.14% -4.09%
    Liberal 867,252 8.85% -1.55% (the AEC have these seperated for some reason)

    The Greens 884,252 9.02% +1.35%

    Democrats 124,175 1.27% -0.82%

    Family First 162,773 1.66% -0.10%

    CDP Christian Party 92,198 0.94% -0.24%

    DLP – Democratic Labor Party 86,732 0.88% +0.39%

    Pauline 107,217 1.09% +1.09%

    Independants (mostly to Nick Xenaphon) 152,789 1.56% +0.05%

  23. SK. So gracious. Mate more concerning for the Libs is the joint primary vote of Labor and the Greens. Thats not a shift to the centre or the right.

    Suffer in your jocks cry baby.

  25. [Lets just hope this puke-inducing moral and intellectual slug Krudd and his band of retards and criminals don’t stuff things up too badly.]

    Ladies and gentlemen, let me present Steven Kaye, the sore loser!

    Steven, you’re exactly the kind of reason why the Liberals lost. I hope the new Liberal party moulds itself around people like you, because it will ensure they remain in opposition for years to come.

  26. Turnball-Minchin team would be the only chance for the Libs to rebuild. Costello has become a liability to the party and will never be PM.

  28. After volunteering for Darren Cheeseman in Corangamite over the last 3 months, I have to say that I am extremely happy, and still a little incredulous, that we managed to achieve a 7.23% swing to Labor (with the help of Green’s preferences).

    This result in Corangamite, and also in Deakin in fantastic in terms of outdoing the state-wide swing. I am so proud of all of the people who have worked to achieve such a fantastic result here in Victoria, and I look forward to hearing our new MP’s maiden speeches on News Radio.

    I say union, you say…

  32. Aaah. Dolly admits that he has been lying to the public all year about the coalition’s reelection prospects and doesn’t know if he’ll serve out his full term. Add one more to the ALP majority when that happens.

  33. I don’t usually make comments to the various trolls that appear here, as their cretinous remarks speak for themselves, but Steven Kaye, for you I will make one exception.

    The overwhelming majority of Australians have voted out John Howard and his government with an historic victory to Labor and Kevin Rudd.

    You, on the other hand, have been nothing but wrong on all counts, and as a personal observation, a nasty little toe-rag as well.

  37. would it comfort Steven to know that they not only lost government they lost a refferendum on the role of unions in the workplace and in politics PLUS a referendum on wall-to-wall Labor.

    In case any libs want to suggest otherwise I have 10km of bunting that says that was what the vote was about and it has Lib/Nat authorisation all over it.

  38. I may have to say this more than once. I eat my own words. I was wrong and I accept that. I didn’t expect QLD to swing, the other yes but not QLD. So how many people are still going to be around now that the election is over?

  39. I’m a Sydneysider, and know nothing about Nick Xenophon. Can someone tell me how likely he is to vote with the Libs in the Senate? Does anyone have a sense of whether he’s pro or anti-Workchoices? Is he is a rightwing religious wingnut, or what?

  40. The bloodletting that will inevitably occur in the next few weeks is going to be particularly engrossing. I might not even be too disappointed to see the rodent win in Bennelong just so he can hang around for three years to watch the party he led implode. Watching Downer on Insiders this morning was VERY FUNNY. Bolt was right when he said Downer just didn’t get it. The way the Libs allowed standards of public administration to lapse over the last 11 years just proves they had no idea how to govern. The Australian people trusted Howard with the economy but they have spoken loudly and clearly that the economy is not everything. They expect much more integrity from their politicians. We are all winners out of this process whether we appreciate it or not.

  41. I’ve got some brickbats and bouquets for the campaign.
    Brickbats-
    Overington complete disgrace to her profession. Might have to feel sorry for her as I suspect she is not well though.
    Shamaham-Senator Ray said it all last night when he asked viewers to compose a 500 word Shama article on the Great Howard Victory
    Sol Lebovic- Contorted himself up his own a*sehole trying to explain how the “preferred economic manager” could lose the poll. Unable to understand that there is more to life than greed.

    Bouquets-
    The people labelled “so-called experts” by the MSM, ie Possum, Lambert, William, Jackman etc. In the face of vitriol from the MSM and sometimes from Labor pessimists they proved that reason will always beat emotion and spin.
    All the bludgers who kept putting their money on Maxine.

  46. Betamax Says:
    November 25th, 2007 at 11:04 am
    I’m a Sydneysider, and know nothing about Nick Xenophon. Can someone tell me how likely he is to vote with the Libs in the Senate? Does anyone have a sense of whether he’s pro or anti-Workchoices? Is he is a rightwing religious wingnut, or what?

    Hes a more labor guy. He’ll go with labor on workchoices etc.

  47. Betamax, he will be moderate on industrial relations and will likely fall somewhere between Labor and the Coalition.

    However he will most likely support the ALP, with some sort of token amendments for ‘small business’ that he can do media releases on.

  49. Having been involved as a volunteer with the Sturt campaign, its hard not to get caught up thinking about what might have been with a few more votes.

    So close …..

    I could well be wrong here, but I suspect if Pyne keeps on pushing for leadership opportunities, details of his personal indescretions may well be leaked by the Right. Now that they have lost government, I’d have thought all discipline within the party will be put aside for a time, & those who are not liked or are a threat will be eliminated.

  50. [I’m a Sydneysider, and know nothing about Nick Xenophon. Can someone tell me how likely he is to vote with the Libs in the Senate? Does anyone have a sense of whether he’s pro or anti-Workchoices? Is he is a rightwing religious wingnut, or what?]

    Xenophon is anti-WorkChoices. He is pretty centrist over all, he deals with each issue as it comes.

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