The day after

A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per cent in the rest of Queensland; 1.4 per cent in Perth, 4.1 per cent in the rest of WA; 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, 9.2 per cent in the rest of SA (Mayo, Barker and Grey); 2.5 per cent in Tasmania; 1.7 per cent in ACT; 2.8 per cent in NT.

I think I can also manage an overview for the Senate, which has produced a surprisingly strong result for the Coalition and a number of disappointments for the Greens. Kerry Nettle is gone in NSW, with three seats each for Labor and the Coalition. It’s looking like the same result in Victoria, although Greens candidate Richard di Natale might yet take the final seat from the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan. The Greens also seem to be falling short in Queensland, their candidate 2.4 per cent behind Labor’s third for the final seat. Better news for the Greens from Western Australia, which turned in its expected result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, and South Australia, where their candidate looks likely to just keep ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion and win the final seat on their preferences. Tasmania is a clear three for Labor, two for Coalition and one for Greens, and Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory split one Labor and one (Country) Liberal as normal.

Assuming the Greens don’t get up in Victoria, and unless my late night/early morning arithmetic leads me astray, that points to 18 seats out of 40 for both Labor and the Coalition, three for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. Combined with ongoing Senators, that means 37 for the Coalition (one short of a blocking majority) and 32 for Labor, with the balance consisting of five for the Greens, one Family First and one Nick Xenophon. The Greens will thus not hold the balance of power in their own right, with the Coalition being able to stitch together a blocking majority with Fielding or Xenophon or an absolute majority with them both. Interesting times ahead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,248 comments on “The day after”

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  1. Surely, there must be a chance that Bronwyn Bishop will retire in Mackellar.

    There also must be a chance of Slipper retiring in Fisher. However, he may hold off for fear of delivering another seat to the ALP…

  4. [Julie Bishop is a lock for the Deputy Leadership against Pyne now that Cossie is gone.]

    I hope Pyne becomes deputy. It would be great for the Liberal deputy to lose his seat at the next election.

  7. “i bought packets of iced vovos today, had some with my strong tea this afternoon.”

    We just bought a packet of iced vovos too! I don’t think I have ever had one and didn’t think much of them, but hey, it’s all for the celebration. Made some nice tea though.

  9. Sinic

    My last post on the topic – if alternative treatments work for cancer they would not be alternative.

    I helped raise $200,000 US for a trial of ECGC (the anti-oxidant in green tea) it was conducted by the Mayo Clinic – result – liver damage.

    🙁

  10. adam @ 1121

    thanks for your commentary over the election. Take a bow, it was very insightful. I’m sure you’re happy to have found your guess for Victorian seats looks like being on the low side.

  12. [That’s why Julie will get it plus she’s a senior Minister, Pyne is a newby.]

    And Pyne is a light weight. He was becoming visibly pissed off when I stood next to him yesterday, encouraging people to vote against WorkChoices as I handed people How to Vote cards.

  15. I’m very sadden by the news of Matt Price’s passing his was one of my favorite Journos.

    My Condolences to Matt’s Family and Friends.

  16. I suspect there will be a purge at The Australian soon and it will need a new name. It might even become a real newspaper again rather than a Liberal Party shit-sheet. (No Chris, we weren’t fooled by the pro-Rudd editorial. You can’t undo a year of shameless Liberal toe-sucking with one editorial at the end.)

  17. Speaking of deadbeat Tory MPs that should retire, how about Somlyay in Fairfax – although, he may hold off considering he only won 52.45% of the TPP vote in Fairfax this time around.

    There’s also Bruce Scott in Maranoa, Hawker in Wannon, Moylan in Pearce, Truss in Wide Bay and McGauran in Gippsland. Obviously not all of them will go, but surely some of them will call time on their parliamentary careers…

  19. I agree with you Swing Lowe, get rid of him Somlyay in Fairfax and if Dutton loses put him in there.

    Time for new tory blood Swing Lowe.

  20. Albert, I am happy about just about everything at present, except the possibility of Kim Wilkie losing. I was genuinely surprised by Deakin, I didn’t think an ETU official was a good look in a middle-class seat – I am delighted to be proved wrong.

  21. 1208 [Slipper should quit then Mal Brough could get back in!]

    Brough has just been voted out Glen, why do you want to cling to failures?

  22. Somlyay in Fairfax will go next election – the demographic change is killing him. He won this election on the retirement home vote in Buderim.

    The Liberal base is getting less and less with time. 🙂

  23. [I suspect there will be a purge at The Australian soon and it will need a new name. It might even become a real newspaper again rather than a Liberal Party shit-sheet.]

    They should start by getting rid of Overington. Even Murdoch thought it was wrong for her to campaign for Turnbull while at work. Her confrontation with Newhouse yesterday should end her journalistic career.

  25. Adam Says:

    “I suspect there will be a purge at The Australian soon and it will need a new name. It might even become a real newspaper again rather than a Liberal Party shit-sheet. (No Chris, we weren’t fooled by the pro-Rudd editorial. You can’t undo a year of shameless Liberal toe-sucking with one editorial at the end.)”

    Amen. Staff at The Australian, print Adam’s post above and stick it on every desk throughout the office.

  26. Adam,

    Just saw an interesting booth result in Hughes. There has been a 14% swing TOWARDS Dana Vale in the Prince Edward Park booth. I remember the result in that booth last time confusing you – maybe this result makes it more normal…

  27. [I agree with you Swing Lowe, get rid of him Somlyay in Fairfax and if Dutton loses put him in there.]

    Dutton is a moron Glen, your side is better of without him.

  28. Mind you there are plenty of deadbeats in the now inflated ALP cacaus, Swing Lowe. Political deadbeats are just on the Tory side of politics.

    We didn’t get celebrity candidates like your mob did and maybe we should pursue that in 2010.

  29. 1223 [They should start by getting rid of Overington. Even Murdoch thought it was wrong for her to campaign for Turnbull while at work. Her confrontation with Newhouse yesterday should end her journalistic career.]

    It should disqualify her as an ABC board member too. The public deserves better than that sort of behaviour.

  30. #1172 –

    “Oh dear, biggest ALP 2PP EVER!”

    Really? This was your highest 2PP ever? Pathetic! And it’s all downhill from here. Especially with that measly primary vote.

  32. Hi Glen – good thought we could start the rumour that Pyne is Downers illegitimate love child
    I think that Nelson easily has the numbers, and yes slipper should make way for brough the libs need him

  35. Just looked at the booth results in Fairfax – 19% swing to Labor in Nambour. I guess it shows how good it is to have 2 local boys running to head the economy…

    Glen, I can think of a few bits of deadwood in the parliamentary Labor caucus as well. Laurie Ferguson in Reid, Jenkins in Scullin, Macklin in Jagajaga – the list goes on. Of course, none of them will retire, as they want to enjoy the taste of being in government…

  41. “It should disqualify her as an ABC board member too. The public deserves better than that sort of behaviour.”

    It would be nice if Albrechtsen left the board too. She was only ever there to fight the culture wars.

    I remember Rudd saying earlier in the year that he planned to make the ABC much more independent of the government, but I don’t recall him putting much detail on this, so not sure what it would involve. Get rid of Mark Scott first is my recommendation and the proceed from there…

  42. [ShowsOn @ 1227,

    I agree. Dutton is a moron. Wasn’t he the guy who said that Therese Rein shouldn’t work at all?]

    Yes. And that Kevin Rudd’s popularity was like the TV show Big Brother!?

  44. I’m going to be in Rudd’s face big time next year!

    He ain’t on easy street by a long way and he has yet to prove he can fill the shoes of a great leader.

    Great leader?……not really… but with assistance?…who knows.?

  46. The protocol is that Howard remains PM until his successor is ready to take office. Caucus meets on Thursday, Rudd will be formally elected Leader and the new ministry announced after the Caucus meeting. Probably on Friday Howard will go to Yarralumla and tender his resignation to the Gov-Gen. Rudd and the crew will then go to Yarrayumla and be sworn in.

  47. Evans from Centrebet on the Lib stoush:

    But Mr Evans said the only other person in the picture was Mr Downer, whom he said “wants the job but still doesn’t know that he hasn’t got the numbers.”

    “Malcolm Turnbull was not mentioned,” he said.

    Mr Evans quoted the source as saying the feeling from inside the party before the election was that “Costello has the biggest ego in the world, and Turnbull may have shot himself in the head”.

    Hmm, that sound sinteresting, I wonder which of Supersize Ego Mal’s acts he was referring to?

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