The day after

A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per cent in the rest of Queensland; 1.4 per cent in Perth, 4.1 per cent in the rest of WA; 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, 9.2 per cent in the rest of SA (Mayo, Barker and Grey); 2.5 per cent in Tasmania; 1.7 per cent in ACT; 2.8 per cent in NT.

I think I can also manage an overview for the Senate, which has produced a surprisingly strong result for the Coalition and a number of disappointments for the Greens. Kerry Nettle is gone in NSW, with three seats each for Labor and the Coalition. It’s looking like the same result in Victoria, although Greens candidate Richard di Natale might yet take the final seat from the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan. The Greens also seem to be falling short in Queensland, their candidate 2.4 per cent behind Labor’s third for the final seat. Better news for the Greens from Western Australia, which turned in its expected result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, and South Australia, where their candidate looks likely to just keep ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion and win the final seat on their preferences. Tasmania is a clear three for Labor, two for Coalition and one for Greens, and Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory split one Labor and one (Country) Liberal as normal.

Assuming the Greens don’t get up in Victoria, and unless my late night/early morning arithmetic leads me astray, that points to 18 seats out of 40 for both Labor and the Coalition, three for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. Combined with ongoing Senators, that means 37 for the Coalition (one short of a blocking majority) and 32 for Labor, with the balance consisting of five for the Greens, one Family First and one Nick Xenophon. The Greens will thus not hold the balance of power in their own right, with the Coalition being able to stitch together a blocking majority with Fielding or Xenophon or an absolute majority with them both. Interesting times ahead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,248 comments on “The day after”

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  1. Hi William,

    Do you mean ACT and NT splitting one ALP and one LP (CLP) as normal?

    Have to say I am really disappointed that Humphries got his quota in ACT. Real shame, I think Tucker would have been an infinite improvement on that cretin.

    I would also like to say that the wonders of modern communication meant I was able to watch the entire ABC election coverage, and part of rage, live from Wimbledon. Marvellous stuff. Made me really homesick!

  2. How did others make out with the bookies? We found out in this house how futile betting really is. We bet on 5 individual seats, won in only two of those and made a grand total of $1 compared to our initial layout. Have Mal Brough to thank for that, otherwise we would have lost $50 compared to the inital layout.

    How did others do?

  3. This thread does not come up with the initial load of the PB page. You have to go to the end of the old thread and get it through your link, William. Is that a problem with my computer or if not, will you load it to the main page? The first thread I see is one of the special threads for monitoring the seats that are too close to call.

  4. Well done William. Which seats did you bet on? Corangimite?

    I made money only on Bennelong, and that was with a free bet. I was counting on North Sydney.

  5. Petrie, Richmond, Macquarie, Deakin, Braddon, Moreton, Bonner and Greenway. $2500 payout on $1300 outlay. Only bet that didn’t come in was a speculative $20 flutter on Wentworth at 6-1.

  6. William, first thanks for the great work.
    Congrats on nailing the Labor seat total.

    This is an excellent Senate update which the silly tv networks totally ignore.

    My only comment at this stage is that thankfully the Family First Senator promised to abolish WorkChoices in his electoral advert on television, which is the most important legislation for Rudd Labor to get through.

    Presumably it can’t be until after 1 July, or will it be allowed to go through earlier? Minchin on ABC didn’t sound inclined to give Labor a mandate free pass, saying that Labor previously held up the GST and other legislation for which Howard had won a mandate in an election.

    Then again, it will be Opp. Leader Costello calling the shots, and he might be more than happy to see the Workchoices albatross cut down sooner rather than later, and being obstructionist for the sake of a few months is not a good look. It will be an indicator whether he’s going to show a different style of leadership than never give an inch Howard.

  7. QUEENSLANDER. YES we hand cricket bats in both hands. Interesting the guy who made the baseball quote Goss Now works for his former employees wife and his former employee is now PM

  8. (10) Impressive. I wish I’d bet on Dickson. Dutton was a cretin, and really had to go. I am really pleased to see the parliament rid of a few first class idiots. None more so that Dutton, and maybe Dave Tollner. Gee whizz, how did these guys ever get in there?

  9. On Gary Humphries winnng in ACT. Can we take it that Rudd’s threat to drastically slash the Public Service might have hurt Labor there?

  10. Julie,
    I lost a bunch of lettuce betting on Howard to win, way back when the odds were almost even at 2 to 1 because I so desperately wanted Howard to lose.

    Obviously doesn’t matter compared to the Homeric Ruddslide (biggest swing since Fraser’s over Whitlam?).

  11. “Oh,happy days, oh happy day……” -haven’t felt so good in years!!!!
    Just a small niggle-there should have been some official acknowledgement by Labor of the contribution that the Greens made in their win they would not have won it without them. And good to see John Faulkner receive a public thanks for all the work he has done….such good value. Lastly,relieved that Petro Georgiou has retained his seat as he had the courage to speak up re asylum issues.
    May the phoenix that rises from the Lib ashes be truly liberal and humanitarian.
    Thanks,William ….a priceless site. And thanks to all of you who provided this ‘L’ plater with so much insight and humour.

  12. I also did ok on betting. Had 2k on Labor @ 1.22, 40 on McKew @ 2.85 and the free $10 on Wentworth. Shame about Wentworth, but so happy that the direction of the ation will change for the better.

  13. Happy happy day.
    Yesterday I dared not hope, but today I feel like a big weight has dropped from my shoulders. Look forward to all the post-analysis here. What will Dennis, Milne, Bolt, Akerman etc have to say???

  14. feeling abit hazey today…but I suppose you also mean that it will be interesting to see how far the Libs go with trying to block the IR rollback that KR will no doubt claim a big mandate for – then interesting to see if they can stitch that opposition together.

  15. Ding dong the witch is dead!

    QLD’ers were waiting. We’re a harsh bunch when we want to be.

    Good morning all. How good was that night????

  16. Nick Minchin on the ABC last night was already saying that the Labor didnt necessarily have a mandate to roll back Workchoices… and that he couldn’t guarantee that the Libs would pass it. If that’s any sign of what’s to come, things could get interesting. Nick X and the Greens could be in a powerful position. But then again what does Fielding have to gain by helping the Lib’s to block?

  17. My prediction of a 53.4% 2PP is looking good at the moment as this is the exact figure quoted on the ABC News special this morning at 8am.

    My seat prediction was 83. Haven’t got a clue how that’s going.

    I lost my $10 on Mike Bailey, and my $20 on Peter Tilney.

    However, I won with my $100 on Maxine at $2.85. So I guess that’s $155 nett winnings, which is nice as yesterday I paid a $145 fine for not voting in a local government council election 8 months ago.

    Ka-ching…

    Therefore, I’m ten bucks ahead on electoral matters this weekend.

    At least I broke even, which is happily more than I can say for the Rodent.

  18. I had $500 on Maxine @ $2.85, and some smaller bets on Page, and the only loser was a wild one, Cowper (ok, Sportingbet’s money, so no harm done)

    But frankly, the sheer joy of seeing that lot depart was worth more than money!

    Senate sounds like a bit of a worry though, and why such a strong showing for the coalition? The senate voting always seems like the dark arts are involved, and dark deals done, and is all rather opaque. On the one hand, a nice clean sweep in the House, but all that murky stuff ‘upstairs’.

  19. Would the remaining rump have the hubris to block when there is a clear mandate?
    YES
    And if they do, then we can get rid of the rest of them!

  20. ‘morning all.

    It was raining last nite, and this morning it’s sunny.

    I got $700 on Maxine @ $3.65 months ago.

    Und Glen ist noch nicht aufgestanden.

    There is a God.

  21. I cleaned up in Forde and Petrie, optimistic in Bennelong and Dickson, lost in McPherson because that is my local electorate, more of a patriotic bet than reality.

  22. Ave it 07 #25,

    Don’t think that we’ll forget your trolling. We won’t – neither side likes trolls.

    Overall –

    Pity about the Senate figures – I’d hoped for a big swing there, but it didn’t happen.

  23. Posted on the other thread, however wanted to share my ranting with everyone on this new one ๐Ÿ˜‰

    I would just like to apologise for my rather intemperate and vindictive post at 1.21am this morning (#787). I rather think it was the copious amounts of Scotch and half dozen beers I had consumed.

    I dont believe the Unions are coming back, and I haven’t been a Unionist for decades (although I do work for a membership organisation with 115,000 members, where my co-workers dont find it very funny when I DO refer to us as a Union ;)). Prime Minister Rudd (oh that sounds good), will keep his promise to work with Australians of all persuasion ad the Unions are only a small part of the overall picture.

    One thing I will not apologise for is my attack on the insidious, hatefilled, ideological attack on Australians through the Tories unauthorised and unheralded Workchoices crime. This legistlation, this vindictive, arrogant, extremist legistlation attacked not only current and future generations, but the memory of working Australians who fought and suffered for our basic working conditions.

    Bob Hawke is deadset correct that every man and woman in the workforce owes the Union movement a debt for Annual Leave, Sick Leave, LSL, a five day working week, redundancy pay, and other. The basic rights of a decent country that respects and honours its citizens. These right wing extremists and ideologues wanted to strip us of our basic rights and our history.

    Well Australians have spoken. Most Australians dont “hate” Unions like Jackie Kelly’s stupid husband. Australians see a Bernie Banton and what the Union movement and Bill Shorten did for him and his cause. That is decency, and that is right.

    A couple of thank you’s.

    1) Mark Latham.- Just over three years ago I sat watching Howard making his customary gloating victory speech after Latham had gone off the rails. I was mortified. The Labor party was going to be out of power for at least 6 years. What was worse was that the Tories had control of the senate. An unmittigated disaster.
    Well hows that for irony. Through Mark Latham and his performance we got the conditions where the arrogant, born to rule, hubris laden government could finally drop their sheeps clothing and inflict on Australian working men and woman the hated Workchoices.

    2) John Howard – Mr Howard, you have always been at the forefront of the NSW right uglies. You hounded the wets out of your party in the late 80’s and early 90’s, you attacked the weak in our society, you dog whistled and appealed to the basest of the electorates fears and prejudices and used these prejudices to wedge and divide the nation, you made our country bigoted, xenophobic, insular, and inward looking. And you did all this with the smug reassurance of a man who thinks he is so clever that the people will be fooled forever.
    You allowed hubris and your insane extremist right wing views to allow you to believe that you had a mandate to attack the very people that elected you in the first place, the so called “Howard Battlers”. How a politician could be so arrogant to believe that they could get away with this is astounding.

    Well Mr Howard your enduring legacy will not be the destructiion of the labour movement. Your legacy will be swept away by the new Labor Govt. Your legacy is now your epithaph.
    You will have no victory lap, you will not be known in history as Menzies lite, you will be remembered for plunging our country into fear and for that crime being thrown out of not just office, but parliment alltogether.

    I will not thank K-Rudd, Julia Gillard or my local member Nicola Roxon. Your work is in front of you. Time to walk the walk.

    A final thank you to William Bowe for this tremendous site, and to all the other bludgers (especially the Keating lovers :)) who has made me feel I am in a room full of fellow true believers.

    The sun is up – its a new dawn, a new day, and Australia is once again back on an even keel.

    End of rant

  24. Want a good laugh? Here’s a snippet of Miranda Devine’s comments from the Wentworth Hotel last night:

    Baume’s theory is that Howard has worked himself out of a job. The aspirationals who voted for him in 1996 and remained loyal through four elections “have achieved the great bulk of what they aspired to,” he said.

    But then they wanted more, And “if you don’t get three cars in your garage rather than two, you’re p…ed off with someone”.

    Dame Leonie Kramer agreed. “Once you start aspiring you never stop,” she said.

    Constitutional Monarchist David Flint, another True Believer in the Wentworth ballroom, blamed internal Liberal fighting and media bias for the poor Coalition showing and giving Kevin Rudd “a dream run”.

    He also blamed “a member of cabinet” who he would not name who he suspected of having leaked information detrimental to the Liberal cause, first that the Prime Minister had lost the confidence of Cabinet later APEC, and then that Malcolm Turnbull had tried to get him to ratify Kyoto. The Liberal party will be “shaken” for some time,” he said.

    ….don’t ya just love Dame Leonie’s comment? Oh, they really don’t get it, do they?

    And oh yes, all that ‘media’ bias to Rudd!!!!!

    The born to rule set always love to blame their inferiors, don’t they? God, it’s so hilarious watching them fall over themselves to bleat how wronged they are!

  25. 39 lol – never forget ave it!

    but you probably wont hear too much from me going forward……

    But for regular insight on uk politics try politicalbetting.com …….

  26. Wonderful day for Australia.
    Just don’t get the Senate though – it seems to be bucking the trend of the entire election.
    Anyway, I am still hopeful for Richard DN in Victoria, and won’t feel that the election is really decided until the senate vote is finalised.
    In the meantime, thanks for making this entire campaign (the one that actually started in Januuary), so much more enjoyable. I have had some great laughs, and the odd moment of irritation (you know who you are Glen), all of which has spiced up an otherwise contrived and boring campaign – apart from Tony Abbott and Jackie Kelly ,who win the for Most Entertaing and Gobsmackingly Stupid Behaviour Award.
    William , you are a gem.

  27. The booth I was handing out ‘How to vote’ did not have a Green’s and only had FF for the 1st 4 hours. Same at the Booth I scrutineered. So the Green’s did not help our cause at Hinkler, which was closer than I thought.

  28. I was delighted to see Lord Downer’s margin sliced dramatically. He is going to have to work hard next time (if he doesn’t defect to state politics instead).

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