The day after

A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per cent in the rest of Queensland; 1.4 per cent in Perth, 4.1 per cent in the rest of WA; 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, 9.2 per cent in the rest of SA (Mayo, Barker and Grey); 2.5 per cent in Tasmania; 1.7 per cent in ACT; 2.8 per cent in NT.

I think I can also manage an overview for the Senate, which has produced a surprisingly strong result for the Coalition and a number of disappointments for the Greens. Kerry Nettle is gone in NSW, with three seats each for Labor and the Coalition. It’s looking like the same result in Victoria, although Greens candidate Richard di Natale might yet take the final seat from the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan. The Greens also seem to be falling short in Queensland, their candidate 2.4 per cent behind Labor’s third for the final seat. Better news for the Greens from Western Australia, which turned in its expected result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, and South Australia, where their candidate looks likely to just keep ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion and win the final seat on their preferences. Tasmania is a clear three for Labor, two for Coalition and one for Greens, and Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory split one Labor and one (Country) Liberal as normal.

Assuming the Greens don’t get up in Victoria, and unless my late night/early morning arithmetic leads me astray, that points to 18 seats out of 40 for both Labor and the Coalition, three for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. Combined with ongoing Senators, that means 37 for the Coalition (one short of a blocking majority) and 32 for Labor, with the balance consisting of five for the Greens, one Family First and one Nick Xenophon. The Greens will thus not hold the balance of power in their own right, with the Coalition being able to stitch together a blocking majority with Fielding or Xenophon or an absolute majority with them both. Interesting times ahead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,248 comments on “The day after”

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  3. Swan has also pulled back for Labor and they are now leading.

    It’s quite possible WA may break even for the ALP (on seats).

  4. best insiders for a long time today – Bolt looking objectively and having a real debate of ideas with Mega and Lenore. Talking Pictures great as well – the accuracy of the cartoonists is in no doubt!

  13. I generally can’t stand talking pictures, but this morning’s had one particularly hilarious moment:

    Mike Bowers: Bill, what will you miss about drawing John Howard?
    Bill Leak: (pauses) Nothing

  14. 113
    Dan Says:
    November 25th, 2007 at 10:23 am
    I generally can’t stand talking pictures, but this morning’s had one particularly hilarious moment:

    Mike Bowers: Bill, what will you miss about drawing John Howard?
    Bill Leak: (pauses) Nothing

    I was ROFL!!!

  16. middle man 93

    when he asked Nicole Cornes and asked her whether she was relieved that she didn’t win.

    Sub text: “admit you’re a bimbo who would have been out your depth as a member of parliament”.

  17. 73
    Kevin Bonham Says:

    Thanks, I’ll keep checking the ACT count. But I am travelling at the mo’.
    I don’t think the vote is that disappointing for The Greens, theres been a enough elections now, where pollsters Upperhouse figures have overstated the Greens vote. (I remember a time when they understated them or ignored them, but hey) Its still growing steadily. Still might get 4 Senators this round.

    Who knows when the button gets pressed, possible that they get none. I hope they get Parliamentary Party status.

    I hope there is no DD.

  19. William can we have a why is it so speculation thread.

    Just to throw the jas amoungst the wolves I am going to suggest that the ‘Mad Mark’ theorem, including the handshake from hell, so popular with fans of the former Govt is almost worthless and cannot explain the result in 2004.

    Which leaves us with interest rates.

    And I’ll be more troublesome by suggesting Workchoices should, in hindsight, be put significantly behind ‘cost of living’ factors.

  23. Yes Gerr, on current count Morgan was extremely close on the 2PP. It appears that they were also closest on the primaries of both parties.

    ACN was furthest on all counts.

  25. Yeah spiros, I like Tony Jones but I thought he was pretty annoying during that Nicole interview, patronising in extremis. However, I thought she handled it very well, quite dignified.

  26. I have to agree with Spiros at 89 re Tony Jones. Thought his interview with Nicole Cornes was utterly patronising rubbish. The way she handled it was, in my opinion fantastic though, and if she’d given a performance like that at the start of the campaign I doubt we would have heard so much crap spouted about her (such as the blind commuter story).

  27. Agree about Tony Jones’ questioning of Cornes. My wife almost jumped through the TV and ripped his head off. I got screamed at just for being male. The phrase “sexist and patronising” was mentioned at very high volume!!

  28. Oh how I enjoyed seeing the faces of the born to rule mob at the Rodent sendoff at the Wentworth, priceless. And never again will i have to listen to his annoying voice, or see the hideous ratwalks.

  33. Calloo Callay, o frabjous day!

    Maxine and Kevin have delivered. The nasty small-minded amoral twerp is gone! Now we can get on with being a proper country, of generous, understanding and just plain pleasant people, again. The relief is palpable, the world looks bright and new.

    The Libs have lost Mal Brough and gained Alex Hawke; nothing could illustrate the depths of their ongoing problem more starkly.

    Thankyou William for allowing me to be part of the adventure for the past several months.

    Cheers to all, even poor sad Glen, and pompous deluded EStJ.

    Alan H

  35. I actually thought Mr Bolt made some very good points this morning. Made a whole lot of sense… and was glad to see George raise the heckling at the NPC earlier this week which was disgraceful.

    I haven’t had as much pleasure watching Insiders in ages.

  38. Alan, we have to admire Glen, he at least had the bottle to cop the abuse levelled at him, and ESJ for that matter. more bottle than some of the so called leaders anyway.

  39. I had an insurance bet of $100 at 3.05 on the Liberals placed about three months ago. Decided two weeks ago that I Labor was home and hosed so I covered it (and some more) with $400 on Labor at $1.35.

    Also had/have $300 (including Sportingbet free $100) on Maxine at $2.85.

  40. Milne was on Sky News Agenda this morning – he pretty much said that the Libs made a fatal mistake by not handing over to Costello earlier. Not particularly surprising…

  42. I also gather that Matt Price may be on the mend, does anyone here have any information, really miss Matt, and of course George Mega has emerged from this whole saga standing even higher in my estimation.

  46. Swing – did Milne have msgs of the long term opposition prospects for Costello along the same lines as the bolter or was he just playing the blame game?

  48. Well. A shock. Not the result, per se, but the magnitude of the swing and the influence in Queensland. Not a lot of polling was indicating this level of swing and outside Brisbane too.

    Senate

    Well, I am quietly chomping on an old straw hat here as Jeff Buchanan is shell-shocked about not securing a senate seat for FFP. However, the fact that we have a two-party split in NSW, QLD and VIC just shows that this election was a two horse race, very presidential, and that the minor parties suffered:

    Dems: Gorn. No surprises.

    FFP: Some minor gains in 2 states but drops elsewhere. About .3% down Nationally

    Greens: up .6% on last count. However, this should be construed as a poor result. Climate Change has rated the third most important issue in this campaign and the Greens harvested a sizeable chunk of the Dems. If this is subtracted from the Greens total, then there is a slight net loss to the Greens as the majors have some CC platforms now.

    ONP: Dead.

    Pauline: Alive and squirming but off her 2004 total.

    The big factor, however, is Xenophon and Steve Fielding with the Senate balance of power. This will be a powerful filter and, if as Gillard claims, the ALP won’t negotiate on IR, then could trigger a DD. This would then entirely be a minor party election. No one would want Labor with such an overwhelming HOR majority and a senate majority and no one wants to see a coalition dominated senate blocking supply.

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