Photo finish: Bowman

2007 2004
ALP LIB ALP LIB Swing
Booths 34,067
50.16 		33,851
49.84 		26,919
41.21 		38,402
58.79 		8.95
Pre-Poll 2,802
46.03 		3,285
53.97 		1,635
36.21 		2,880
63.79 		9.82
Absent 1,681
52.43 		1525
47.57 		1,456
44.16 		1,841
55.84 		8.27
Postal 2363
50.05 		2358
49.95 		1,769
41.30 		2,514
58.70 		8.75
Provisional 58
51.79 		54
48.21 		180
45.80 		213
54.20 		5.98
Total 40,971
49.94 		41,073
50.06 		31,805
40.88 		46,004
59.12 		9.06
ALP 50.0
LIB 50.0


Saturday evening. This post will be used to follow the final stages of the count in Bowman, where at the close of election night counting the ABC computer has Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming and Labor candidate Jason Young locked together on 50.0-50.0. On raw figures Labor is 0.3 per cent ahead, but the Liberals had a relatively stronger performance on absent, pre-poll and postal votes in 2004.

Sunday evening. About a quarter of the pre-poll votes have been counted, and they have so far been swinging to Labor 8.1 per cent compared with 9.3 per cent from the booths. If that 8.1 per cent remains constant through the pre-poll and postal votes, the result will go right down to the wire with a Labor win of 200 votes.

Monday 6pm. I was in error in the previous entry: pre-polls are not in fact swinging differently to booth votes, although Laming is still closing the gap in absolute terms. Today they have added 609 for Laming and 539 for Young, after yesterday’s 590 and 466. Together they have narrowed the gap from 159 votes to 55. Pre-polls are thus following their pattern from 2004 when they favoured the Liberals. Postals and absentee votes however were a lot stronger for Labor, which is why my adjusted figures in red and blue above have Labor in the lead.

Tuesday 3pm. Laming has taken a 27-vote lead after the addition of another 1366 pre-polls, which split 724-642 in his favour. However, the swing to Labor on pre-polls is in fact tracking slightly upwards. Everything depends on whether absents and postals follow the same pattern of relative favourability to Labor from 2004.

Wednesday 5pm. Young has recovered the lead after a strong performance from 1664 postal votes, about a third of the likely total. These have split 856-808 in his favour for a double-digit swing compared with 2004, putting him 21 votes in front. His adjusted lead has increased from 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

Thursday 4pm. Postal votes continue to trickle Young’s way, a further 1955 breaking 997-958 and increasing his lead to 60 votes.

Friday 3pm. The addition of 1672 absent votes, probably half of the total, has increased Young’s lead by 56 votes.

Monday 3pm. A further 1105 absent votes have increased Young’s lead by 47, while adjustments to booth figures have cost Young seven votes and Laming three. Young currently leads by 159.

Monday 11pm. A curious development: the results from the Capalaba booth have been shifted to Capalaba School, and Capalaba is now listed as having 81 fewer votes for Laming and 121 fewer for Young than Capalaba School did previously (uncanny how every single thing seems to be running against Labor in every single seat). On top of that, a further 903 postal votes have gone 465-438 in Laming’s favour. Combined with minor adjustments in other booths, Young is now just 90 votes ahead. There are still 762 postal and about 400 provisional votes to be counted.

Wednesday 7pm. Truly are the election gods smiling upon the Coalition. A further 2043 pre-poll votes have split 1129-914 in Laming’s favour, giving him 55.3 per cent compared with his previous 53.9 per cent from this source. After a few more booth result adjustments, Laming has now gained a 119-vote lead. Still to come are 1003 absent votes, which might be expected to boost Young by around 40 votes, 627 pre-polls which should boost Laming by about 50, and a handful of postals which should split evenly. Nor can Young expect to gain around 40 votes from provisionals.

Thursday 7pm. Postals: another 425 gives Young a surprise 57-vote break. Pre-polls: a further 429 provide another pleasant surprise for Young, going 217-212 his way. Provisionals: 112 of these, going 58-54 to Young. Re-checking: Laming gains nine votes and Young gains two. That leaves Laming with a lead of just 46 votes. Reportedly still to come: 226 postals and 70 pre-polls. Young needs 58 per cent of them.

Friday 8pm. With 199 postal votes breaking 127-72 to Laming, the prospect of a Young comeback is diminishing. Other than that, only a small number of pre-poll and absent votes added. Booth votes are unchanged.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

220 comments on “Photo finish: Bowman”

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  2. (Spreadsheet updated.)

    Yes, that was a very good update for Young.

    A batch of 192 absent votes counted with 114 going to Young, 70 to Laming and 8 informal.

    It’s a battle now between the remaining absent votes (favouring Young) and pre-polls (favouring Laming). Also how many provisionals are accepted and how they split is going to be crucial.

  3. Word from the mountain is that there are actually significantly fewer absentees left to count (around 200). Not sure how this is the case but my guess would be that a significant number have been ruled out.

    Further, I have learnt that there will be approximately 110 provisionals to count with the remainder having been ruled out.

  7. That last update was again absent votes. Not quite as stunning as the last batch but still narrowed the gap. Of the 249, 127 went to Young, 114 to Laming and 8 informal.

  9. 4:03pm update was a batch of 229 pre-polls votes that split, against the trend, to Young. Good news indeed for Labor.

    Split was 120 Young, 106 Laming and 3 informals.

  10. I just wish we’d get the same regular updates for McEwen! Nothing new on the AEC board since 12.21.

    Given the ups and downs in some categories of votes in McEwen at different times , I can see a recount coming on there.

    Anything similar in Bowman?

  12. This is freaking me out. Has anyone [particularly William] seen a poll that is so swinging at this late stage.

    Poor Callum will need a holiday after all of his good hard work updating for us.

    To me there is only one Rod and that is Redlands Rod. No pretenders allowed.

  19. Sorry about the name, Redlands and Noodles, but I’m Rod just about everywhere else from Crikey to Possum and beyond. I’d get confused if I became Jim or somesuch after more than half a century! 😉

    Looking at Bowman from my Mexican McEwen perspective I reckon those provisionals are going to come into serious play in Bowman as well as at my end of the continent .

    Shane , I reckon projections based on vote flow in particular categories become almost meaningless by the time you get down to this sort of margin, because such minor variations can have such big implications.

    Cheers

    Rod (Not the Redlands variety)

  20. I agree with that last comment by Rod that projections on such a small number of remaining votes become almost meaningless. I’ve kept them in my spreadsheet but only for past consistency.

    This has been an instructive count to watch

  21. Word from the AEC in Cleveland is that there are approximately…

    226 postals left
    110 provisionals and
    70 pre-polls

    If this is correct, one has to ask why the AEC website is so out of whack???

  22. New AEC update at 5:21.

    Pre-poll tallies have changed.

    Another 106 to Laming, 97 to Young and 7 informal.

    Pre-poll total vote has also increased 6413 from 6352.

    End result: Laming now ahead by 50.

  24. Still no sign of the provisionals in the latest AEC posted figures, and a few hundred absents left too.

    If Shane-o’s word of mouth on votes left is correct it would be interesting to know what the actual lead was (and to whom) at that point.

    Cheers

    Rod (not the Redlands one)

  25. this is excrutiating – and i dont mean there being 2 rods! no offence meant rod I’m happy to share – keep us informed about Mceen.

    earlier comments about flows being meaningless when we get to these tiny margins are spot on

    What were all your predictions straight after polling day??

    I called it on Sunday at Young by 58
    others???

  27. my squirrels tell me a vote has gone back to laming – lead now 57

    checking of booth results is still going on tonight – might be some small changes later

  28. Bowman looked gone for Labor last night, now it looks like it’ll come down to the swing on provisionals – if it can get up to the overall swing for the seat, Young might just squeak in by 10 or 20 votes. If not, Laming might hold on by a similar margin.

    Young needs to win the provisionals by a couple percent and get just one good batch of absentees above the swing or a better than average set of prepolls that break even.

    Come on, one more Labor seat in Brisbane! This is getting exciting

  30. spot on Oliver – squirrels tell me the booth checking is favouring Young by a couple per booth – i know that sounds odd but thats what i hear. that times the 15 booths left to check we are at square one and your call comes well into play, more so on young’s side than the other bloke

    exciting indeed

  32. I suspect the provisionals counted early are all the ones that have been allowed.

    That would mean it’s down to the 549 absents, 246 pre-polls and 241 postals left to count (on current AEC figures).

  36. Probably all depressed about it still hanging in the air when they thought they had it in the bag, Redlands R.!

    McEwen was sitting on 77 last time I checked. Seems to be a fair bit of “housekeeping” going on in McEwen with minor changes in several categories of votes but a fair batch of absentees (which have been favouring Labor) outstanding. 90% of the provisionals there seem to have been given the boot, at least provisionally.

    I get the feeling that we may have quite a while (I’m thinking recounts and disputed returns) before we get the real answer on these two.

    Cheers

    Rod (the McEwen one)

  37. Glad to see you missed me guys.

    Reconfirming that Absentees and now provisionals are exhausted.
    There are about 60 or so pre-polls left
    and about 220 postals plus whatever arrives in tomorrow’s mail.

    So Young needs about 68% of the remaining votes to break even.
    A tough ask…

  40. I know you guys all stay up very late at night but some of us start work very early. Any chance of morning updates as to the state of the Nation. Anything interesting to report from your end as well Rod[McEwen]

  41. From what i hear it could be all over. Now who is going to claim and who is going to concede. Maybe a recount to prolong everybody’s agony. What say your numbers Callum.

  44. AEC update 11:37 am.

    Ordinaries unchanged.
    Absents: Laming +4, Young +0.
    Provisionals unchanged.
    Pre-polls: Laming +20, Young +27, Informals +6.
    Postals: Laming +127, Young +72, Informals +1.

    Result: Laming ahead by 102.

    The change in postals confirms the ABC story. However, the AEC website still shows a significant number of Absent votes (545) and Pre-poll votes (194) to be counted.

    I’m not a member of any political party and don’t have any inside information. All along I’ve only been reporting on the AEC updates. Not having any other reliable source I will wait until I see figures on the AEC website that show either one of the candidates can not now win.

  46. very drustrating it hasnt changed since this morning – i assume its done and dusted. waiting to hear from my squirrels

  47. Been celebrating for most of the day guys so apologies for not updating.

    All fresh votes are exhausted with only a dribble of postals maybe arriving this afternoon (less than ten).

    Laming is 102 in front with only a few booths left to be re-counted.

    Labor may call for a full recount.
    I always say “Never Give Up”
    But in this case, Jason Young definitely should….

    You beauty!

  48. with so few votes in it why would jason give up?? would you ifit was the other way around? I doubt it.

    Enjoy – while you can…..

  49. Ah, Shane-O, I’ve been following elections for too long to imagine that a situation as close as the one in Bowman is worth celebrating by the Libs just yet. Lemmings have a shocking habit of falling off the cliff at the last moment, you know! Just by the way, isn’t Laming one of the Qld guys who was having serious trouble with rushing “into print” a while back?

    If elected , I’m sure he’ll make the most of three years in opposition, but if this is the best he can manage this time around he won’t be there next time. Probably time he made yet another career change, don’t you think? 😉

    Cheers

    Rod

  50. 2007 represent a high water mark for Labor in Bowman
    This is the best you’ve got, you threw everything you had at us and still couldn’t get over the line.

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