Photo finish: Bowman

2007 2004
ALP LIB ALP LIB Swing
Booths 34,067
50.16 		33,851
49.84 		26,919
41.21 		38,402
58.79 		8.95
Pre-Poll 2,802
46.03 		3,285
53.97 		1,635
36.21 		2,880
63.79 		9.82
Absent 1,681
52.43 		1525
47.57 		1,456
44.16 		1,841
55.84 		8.27
Postal 2363
50.05 		2358
49.95 		1,769
41.30 		2,514
58.70 		8.75
Provisional 58
51.79 		54
48.21 		180
45.80 		213
54.20 		5.98
Total 40,971
49.94 		41,073
50.06 		31,805
40.88 		46,004
59.12 		9.06
ALP 50.0
LIB 50.0


Saturday evening. This post will be used to follow the final stages of the count in Bowman, where at the close of election night counting the ABC computer has Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming and Labor candidate Jason Young locked together on 50.0-50.0. On raw figures Labor is 0.3 per cent ahead, but the Liberals had a relatively stronger performance on absent, pre-poll and postal votes in 2004.

Sunday evening. About a quarter of the pre-poll votes have been counted, and they have so far been swinging to Labor 8.1 per cent compared with 9.3 per cent from the booths. If that 8.1 per cent remains constant through the pre-poll and postal votes, the result will go right down to the wire with a Labor win of 200 votes.

Monday 6pm. I was in error in the previous entry: pre-polls are not in fact swinging differently to booth votes, although Laming is still closing the gap in absolute terms. Today they have added 609 for Laming and 539 for Young, after yesterday’s 590 and 466. Together they have narrowed the gap from 159 votes to 55. Pre-polls are thus following their pattern from 2004 when they favoured the Liberals. Postals and absentee votes however were a lot stronger for Labor, which is why my adjusted figures in red and blue above have Labor in the lead.

Tuesday 3pm. Laming has taken a 27-vote lead after the addition of another 1366 pre-polls, which split 724-642 in his favour. However, the swing to Labor on pre-polls is in fact tracking slightly upwards. Everything depends on whether absents and postals follow the same pattern of relative favourability to Labor from 2004.

Wednesday 5pm. Young has recovered the lead after a strong performance from 1664 postal votes, about a third of the likely total. These have split 856-808 in his favour for a double-digit swing compared with 2004, putting him 21 votes in front. His adjusted lead has increased from 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

Thursday 4pm. Postal votes continue to trickle Young’s way, a further 1955 breaking 997-958 and increasing his lead to 60 votes.

Friday 3pm. The addition of 1672 absent votes, probably half of the total, has increased Young’s lead by 56 votes.

Monday 3pm. A further 1105 absent votes have increased Young’s lead by 47, while adjustments to booth figures have cost Young seven votes and Laming three. Young currently leads by 159.

Monday 11pm. A curious development: the results from the Capalaba booth have been shifted to Capalaba School, and Capalaba is now listed as having 81 fewer votes for Laming and 121 fewer for Young than Capalaba School did previously (uncanny how every single thing seems to be running against Labor in every single seat). On top of that, a further 903 postal votes have gone 465-438 in Laming’s favour. Combined with minor adjustments in other booths, Young is now just 90 votes ahead. There are still 762 postal and about 400 provisional votes to be counted.

Wednesday 7pm. Truly are the election gods smiling upon the Coalition. A further 2043 pre-poll votes have split 1129-914 in Laming’s favour, giving him 55.3 per cent compared with his previous 53.9 per cent from this source. After a few more booth result adjustments, Laming has now gained a 119-vote lead. Still to come are 1003 absent votes, which might be expected to boost Young by around 40 votes, 627 pre-polls which should boost Laming by about 50, and a handful of postals which should split evenly. Nor can Young expect to gain around 40 votes from provisionals.

Thursday 7pm. Postals: another 425 gives Young a surprise 57-vote break. Pre-polls: a further 429 provide another pleasant surprise for Young, going 217-212 his way. Provisionals: 112 of these, going 58-54 to Young. Re-checking: Laming gains nine votes and Young gains two. That leaves Laming with a lead of just 46 votes. Reportedly still to come: 226 postals and 70 pre-polls. Young needs 58 per cent of them.

Friday 8pm. With 199 postal votes breaking 127-72 to Laming, the prospect of a Young comeback is diminishing. Other than that, only a small number of pre-poll and absent votes added. Booth votes are unchanged.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

220 comments on “Photo finish: Bowman”

Comments Page 4 of 5
1 … 3 4 5

  1. I don’t know anything about printing but if you’re referring to a Federal Police investigation,,,
    It’s a matter of public record that the Labor party instigated that investigation.
    An ALP Member led the investigation, an ALP member magistrate signed the warrants and it wouldn’t surprise me if the genesis of it all was members of the local ALP and in the view of hurting Laming beforew the election.

    Still didn’t work!

  2. Noodles asks: Anything interesting to report from your end as well Rod[McEwen]

    Bailey is in front by 32 votes with about 500 (mainly absentees) outstanding, Noodles. Should know the result of the count some time today. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a recount here.

    Cheers

    Rod

  3. Enjoyed the coverage and nail biting finish thanks a lot to all who participated on here. Small clue to Labor guys as an undecided seeing union sponsored demonstations on streets of Cleveland “Before” Lamming was cleared of “charges” got him my vote something smelled in the “utopian state” .
    Bill

  4. Dream on Shane-O
    you aint seen nothing yet and as for printgate I can see history being rewritten already, just like someone else’s CV!

    bill – the protests were always about Work Choices and lamings support for that legislation. Apart from his famous “Pizza” speech he never once engaged in the debate despite numerous invites and opportunities.

  6. Following Noodles request, and just in case anyone hasn’t heard, Labor have pulled the rug out from under Howard minister, Fran Bailey’s feet with a 7 vote win in McEwen.

    Rob Mitchell returned from the dead by picking up enough to win from a 90 vote plus deficit over the last couple of days of counting, all from the last few hundred absentee, Pre Poll and Postals.

    Good luck in Bowman, RR!

    Cheers

    Rod (from McEwen)

  9. I note the seat hasn’t been declared yet.

    I think you’ll find it isn’t bye bye – just au revoir shane-o and andrew

    ps: go mcewen!!

  11. Bye Bye Howard government, WorkChoices, GWB über alles, John Howard, Peter Costello, “Freaky” Downer , Fran Bailey, that bigot in Menzies, and the perks of office, Shane-O.

    Hello, a return to some semblance of sanity on most of the things that actually matter to most of us and a front bench with some real competence and ability! 😉

    Cheers

    Rod

  12. Mmm. I see there are still several hundred absentees, and a couple of hundred pre-polls to go in Bowman according to AEC. Gee that reminds me of McEwen when the Libs thought they were home and hosed!

    Cheers

    Rod

  13. All fresh votes are exhaustedthere is no further counting other than booth recounts.
    Don’t hold your breath.
    Though on second thoughts…..do

  14. Don’t worry Shane-E, I’m sure the official figures must be wrong as you say.

    Those recounts must be worrying though. Fran is going for a full recount in McEwen of course. The various booth recounts there cost her dearly.

    Cheers

    Rod

  15. As the Libs aren’t prepared to accept the result in McEwen, I guess Labor won’t in Bowman either.

    Heck, they might both take them to the CDR! I know which side I’d be backing for both seats if it comes to a re-election! 😉

    Cheers

    Rod

  16. good to see shane-o is taking such a mature approach.

    of course we wont concede until it is final as you know you wouldn’t. stop this high and mighty rubbish – it just reinforces peoples opinions of your lot as arrogant a-holes.

    you are going to get flogged again in Cleveland, Redlands and Capalaba and many other seats around Queensland- do you seriously think the vote so far represents a resurgence of the Liberals in the Redlands?? when you have nearly a 9% swing against you???

    dream on shane-o and andrew, dream on

  17. As Ferny suggested about Glen in another thread, RR. I think Shane-eieio is also suffering from stage one Kübler-Ross

    Yes, I feel some (mmm, though , if I’m honest, not a whole lot of ) sympathy for the poor lad , having gone through something similar in 1975 and 1996. I suspect some may well feel the same again some time around 2020 or so when the Greens cream the Labor Party for their first stint in Government!

    Heck, the poor lad may even be a Qld Liberal Party member! If so, we should, of course, be extending our heart felt condolences (heh, heh, heh!)

  18. Yes indeed Mcewen Rod- I am led to believe there are still 5 or 6 active members of the Qld Liberals, and 2 or 3 of them active in our part of the world.

    I am saving my analysis of the apparently major benefit afforded by the donkey vote to Eeyore Laming for a not to distant date…..

    stay tuned

  23. Happy to provide some enlightenment here noodles…

    No Ticket No Start Pty Ltd is the name of the trading arm of the Electrical Trades Union.
    During the campaign, it was exposed that they were providing significant funds to Jason Young’s campaign in Bowman.
    One hates to think what kind of national agenda an organisation with a name like “No Ticket No Start” might push upon those MPs it “owns”.
    Estimates suggest that the Young campaign in Bowman cost well over $1 million, the majority of which came from this “No Ticket No Start Pty Ltd.”

  24. Shane-O,

    With regards to your comments suggesting that Phil Weightman will lose his seat of Cleveland, you must be kidding yourself. I am a swinging voter who lives in Mr Weightman’s seat and I must say after watching his performance since his election in 2006, I find it very hard to accept that anyone would be foolish enough to vote him out (and that isn’t taking the state of the QLD Liberal Party).

    I think that it is very clear that the QLD Liberals are out for at least two more elections after their recent performance. Especially with the game of Lucky Dip that was played to elect Mr McArdle. How do you expect people to take you and your party seriously when you can’t even act sensibly to elect a leader?

    If you and your mates are looking to play more games in the coming weeks, I have a 4 year old son and he reccomends that you play the following two games: Duck, Duck, Goose and Pin The Tail On The Donkey. (Pin The Tail On The Donkey, can be altered to: Pin The Election Defeat On The Liberal Leader, so that will last for after the election as well)

    I was honestly considering to vote for you people last State Election, but after watching your leader’s performance throughout the campaign, I was happy to vote Labor.

    Get a life

    Sandra

  28. Ignore him Sandra and hopefully he will go away. ps: I think your suggestion of “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” is a great idea considering the value the donkey vote has given the liberal candidate in this election – and the last election too for that matter.

  30. Shane-o writes:

    We’re coming for him Sandra

    Somehow, Shane, I don’t think the sight of 8 pairs of white sand shoes, all on the wrong feet, and marching in sixteen different directions, is going to strike a great amount of fear into the Labor Party in Queensland come the next election! 😉

    Cheers

    Rod (the McEwen one)

  31. I’m serious about the impact of the donkey vote – particularly, I saw stacks of pre-poll votes that went straight down the ballot paper delivery to laming. Interesting Shane-o hasn’t commented on any of my earlier posts about this.

    i am going to have a real good look at this aspect but there is no doubt in my mid that the donkey vote contributed a lot more than the current (as at 6.25 tonight) difference of 81 votes or 0.05%.

    I’m not sure whether to call Andrew Eeyore or Francis the Talking Mule – any other thoughts out there?

  32. Shane-o is one of those sad,sad Liberals now twiddling their thumbs not knowing what to do.He’ll eventually get over it,and move on.But until then we have to put up with the tosser.Some losers never know how to move on,he’s one of them,just tragic!!!!

  33. Somehow, when I think of Shane-O and the Qld Libs these days , the following are the other parties that come to mind:

    Australia Party
    Australian Labor Party (Anti-Communist)
    Australian Party
    Australian Progressive Alliance
    Centre-Line Party
    City Country Alliance
    Commonwealth Liberal Party
    Communist Party of Australia (1920 – 1991)
    Country and Progressive National Party
    Curtin Labor Alliance
    Deadly Serious Party
    Democratic Labor Party (1955-78)
    Free Trade Party
    Illawarra Workers Party
    Lang Labor Also known as Non-Communist Labor Party
    Liberal and Country League
    Liberal Movement
    Liberal Reform Group
    Liberal Reform Party
    National Alliance (WA)
    Natural Law Party
    No Aircraft Noise
    New LM
    National Action
    National Socialist Party of Australia
    Nationalist Party of Australia
    Party! Party! Party!
    Progressive Party
    Protectionist Party
    Reform the Legal System
    SA First
    Single Tax League
    State Labor Party (NSW non-Lang)
    Sun Ripened Warm Tomato Party
    Surprise Party
    Unite Australia Party
    United Australia Party
    United Tasmania Group

    (from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Australia ) 😉

    Cheers

    Rod

  35. Hey Rod,
    LOL!!!!
    The Tosser thinks we care.
    Who won the election,and who now gets to see what the drill was with Laming et al over that other business to see if anything else comes to mind

  36. Now,now boys and girls,this is all getting a bit too personal.
    I agree with Sandra about the State Libs playing childhood games but it is not much more depressing than Pete and Pete in a skirt[Anna] playing King in the castle. Let’s face it we don’t have any current competent politicians in this State on either side. We now even have the awful thought that “Honest” Mike Kaiser may well raise his ugly head again.
    By the way Shane-O this “No Ticket no Start Pty.Ltd.” all sounds a bit behind closed doors type of a concern and indeed quite worrying.

  37. By the way Redlands Rod, Equinely speaking Phar Lap may be more appropriate as i see it. I think you may be overvaluing the so called Donkey influence when you take in to account the massive influence that the Unions and the Greens had on Jason’s final tally.

  38. I note that checking is continuing – where there is an electoral office process there is hope.
    A couple of points noodles and shane-o:

    1. the funding of the campaign is public knowledge and is subject to the electoral laws on disclosure. as your candidates funding is. no news there.
    2. the unions and the greens campaigned in full accordance with the law as any organisation can. the greens are a legitimately constituted political party who preferenced the ALP. I could similarly suggest that real estate agents, family first , one nation and donkeys had an impact on the liberal vote. is there some sinister conspiracy you are alluding to?
    3. lastly i notice that the liberal candidate for bowman is making no apologies for (if elected) spending as much time holding the state labor government to account as on his federal duties – don’t you people ever learn? you are on the nose big time could be construed as misuse of commonwealth funds in that he is planning to use tax payer funded time to campaign for the state liberal party!!!

  40. Redlands Rod– no conspiracy was alluded to i was merely suggesting that it was a long bow to draw suggesting that “Donkeys” was what got Laming over the line when you take into account the extremely robust campaigning by the Unions and also the [ legitimate] support of the Greens.

    Re your third comment. That is a bit rich when you look at the input to the campaign not only of our local State member in the Bowman campaign but the State Labor party and all State members as a whole.

    I actually found it quite intriguing that when Rudd won he was introduced to the public and the media by Anna Bligh.

  41. Good point Noodles
    Written and authorised by Phil Weightman was seen on everything J.Young distributed.
    I wonder if Redlands Rod would construe this as a misuse of taxpayer funds?

  42. Not at all – he was the campaign director

    what percentage is generally assigned to the donkey vote- half a percent?? 400 votes. quarter of a percent 200 votes.
    seems pretty clear to me

  43. Down to 55 , now, I see. The margin seems to be closing at a similar rate to McEwen, with a couple of hundred Pre-Polls outstanding.

    Probably get closer, too, the way the late Pre-Poll counts have been going! And with Fran Bailey setting the precedent for recounts in this election it may get even more interesting still! I guess if it lingers much longer there won’t be time for a recount before the break. May well still be a few overly nervous tummies when the Christmas Pud arrives, I reckon!

    Cheers

    Rod

  46. Young’s just called for a recount.
    I wonder if he’ll get the same criticism from those who got stuck in to Fran Bailey for requesting a recount.

  47. not at all – its a voluntary position. not like Lamings declaration of how he is going to spend his time as our elected representative.

    who’s complained about bailey on this forum??
    I am sure Laming would ask for a recount if it was the other way around.

  48. Noodles Re: Comment 190 regarding Anna Bligh

    I think that this shows just how good the relationship between the Federal and State Governments will be. Nothing to be looked down on at all.

  50. a touch premature don’t you think Shane-o? – look what happened in Mcewen

    as i said earlier -wherever there is an AEC process there is hope!!

    certainly is interesting…. and excruciating

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 5
1 … 3 4 5