Photo finish: Bowman

2007 2004
Booths 34,067
Pre-Poll 2,802
Absent 1,681
Postal 2363
Provisional 58
Total 40,971
ALP 50.0
LIB 50.0

Saturday evening. This post will be used to follow the final stages of the count in Bowman, where at the close of election night counting the ABC computer has Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming and Labor candidate Jason Young locked together on 50.0-50.0. On raw figures Labor is 0.3 per cent ahead, but the Liberals had a relatively stronger performance on absent, pre-poll and postal votes in 2004.

Sunday evening. About a quarter of the pre-poll votes have been counted, and they have so far been swinging to Labor 8.1 per cent compared with 9.3 per cent from the booths. If that 8.1 per cent remains constant through the pre-poll and postal votes, the result will go right down to the wire with a Labor win of 200 votes.

Monday 6pm. I was in error in the previous entry: pre-polls are not in fact swinging differently to booth votes, although Laming is still closing the gap in absolute terms. Today they have added 609 for Laming and 539 for Young, after yesterday’s 590 and 466. Together they have narrowed the gap from 159 votes to 55. Pre-polls are thus following their pattern from 2004 when they favoured the Liberals. Postals and absentee votes however were a lot stronger for Labor, which is why my adjusted figures in red and blue above have Labor in the lead.

Tuesday 3pm. Laming has taken a 27-vote lead after the addition of another 1366 pre-polls, which split 724-642 in his favour. However, the swing to Labor on pre-polls is in fact tracking slightly upwards. Everything depends on whether absents and postals follow the same pattern of relative favourability to Labor from 2004.

Wednesday 5pm. Young has recovered the lead after a strong performance from 1664 postal votes, about a third of the likely total. These have split 856-808 in his favour for a double-digit swing compared with 2004, putting him 21 votes in front. His adjusted lead has increased from 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

Thursday 4pm. Postal votes continue to trickle Young’s way, a further 1955 breaking 997-958 and increasing his lead to 60 votes.

Friday 3pm. The addition of 1672 absent votes, probably half of the total, has increased Young’s lead by 56 votes.

Monday 3pm. A further 1105 absent votes have increased Young’s lead by 47, while adjustments to booth figures have cost Young seven votes and Laming three. Young currently leads by 159.

Monday 11pm. A curious development: the results from the Capalaba booth have been shifted to Capalaba School, and Capalaba is now listed as having 81 fewer votes for Laming and 121 fewer for Young than Capalaba School did previously (uncanny how every single thing seems to be running against Labor in every single seat). On top of that, a further 903 postal votes have gone 465-438 in Laming’s favour. Combined with minor adjustments in other booths, Young is now just 90 votes ahead. There are still 762 postal and about 400 provisional votes to be counted.

Wednesday 7pm. Truly are the election gods smiling upon the Coalition. A further 2043 pre-poll votes have split 1129-914 in Laming’s favour, giving him 55.3 per cent compared with his previous 53.9 per cent from this source. After a few more booth result adjustments, Laming has now gained a 119-vote lead. Still to come are 1003 absent votes, which might be expected to boost Young by around 40 votes, 627 pre-polls which should boost Laming by about 50, and a handful of postals which should split evenly. Nor can Young expect to gain around 40 votes from provisionals.

Thursday 7pm. Postals: another 425 gives Young a surprise 57-vote break. Pre-polls: a further 429 provide another pleasant surprise for Young, going 217-212 his way. Provisionals: 112 of these, going 58-54 to Young. Re-checking: Laming gains nine votes and Young gains two. That leaves Laming with a lead of just 46 votes. Reportedly still to come: 226 postals and 70 pre-polls. Young needs 58 per cent of them.

Friday 8pm. With 199 postal votes breaking 127-72 to Laming, the prospect of a Young comeback is diminishing. Other than that, only a small number of pre-poll and absent votes added. Booth votes are unchanged.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

220 comments on “Photo finish: Bowman”

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  1. Nice one Redlands Rod, perhaps you should try basing your postings in fact rather than fantasy.
    Declaration’s at 2pm today! See you there!

  2. based on a lunch at Sirromet – fact pal.

    on the analysis you mention – the much larger number of pre-poll votes and the donkey vote are what did it!!! and some extreme margins in mobile booths….

    cant make the declaration unfortunately – enjoy

  3. I love how you blame a variety of factors on the ALP’s loss in Bowman.

    Quite simply, this is the only seat Labor couldn’t win out of the target seats of Bonner, Moreton, Bowman, Petrie, Longman etc..

    This was despite Laming being targetted by a dodgy police investigation and a $1 million + ETU funded campaign machine.

    No wonder they’re upset, money down the drain!

  4. Shane-o glad to see you rally around your failed mates so readily.
    The Liberals have been decimated and have no hope anywhere, and Laming is going to take on the QLD Government! Why not the Council too?? oops I forgot, of course they are on the same side so never any meddling there from our local member. don’t local roads maintained by the council warrant any of his time?? Local Development approvals not important enough??

    A margin of 8.9% (a difference of over 14,000 votes) that is reduced to just 64 votes is some a major victory?

    you know he won by the skin of his teeth and it could have easily gone the other way – stop the righteous claptrap.

    Of course the Your Rights at Work Campaign and Lamings ignorance and denial of the impacts of Work Choices on working families played a big part – good thing too. Maybe he might listen in future but on past experience i doubt it.

    i am sure that more detailed evaluation of the results here in Bowman will inform us all much better of the whys and wherefores of this outcome!

    I suspect this blog will be closed down soon so see you next time around – or in court maybe.

  5. I also want to say a very big thank you to the other contributors to this little blog in the big picture of election 2007, I mean Kevin O7! of course.

    AND a gigantic thank to William Bowe for making this accessible and providing great stats , information and analysis all the way through. I’ve been a fan of this site for a long time and talk it up to others to engage a bit of political debate

    thanks William

  6. Sounds like Shane-O struck a raw nerve Redlands Rob. The liberals have won in Bowman, get over it. The majority of the electorate voted for Andrew Laming and in the end that is all that counts. Savour Labor’s federal victory and quit lamenting about opportunites lost and what might have been at the local level.

  7. you guys and/or gals are unbelievable – you cant recognise what has happened to you?

    I acknowledged ages ago the likelihood of a Laming win here – you lot seem incapable of acknowledging how badly you have performed all over the country and in every state – thats the point I’m making.

    Mr Laming is in for some interesting times…… I can assure you

  8. Sure, we acknowledge how badly the election went.

    We just love how much it upsets you that the Libs held Bowman despite the big $$$ investment.

  9. the money isn’t what bothers me, we are very satisfied with the turnaround we achieved – its that we have to put with an incompetent fool for another three years. such is life

  10. The Bottom line in the Bowman Debate is to have a recount then we shall see just how much lamings 64 vote lead means, but of course if there is no recount it just means that laming has one of, if not the most marginal seats in the country. That’s thanks to his overwhelming support of Workchoices which has now been dumped by Brendan(Show me the Money) Nelson as Dead!!!!!!!!!!! If only Dr Laming had the common sense to see that Workchoices was as popular as tying a bag of xmas prawnheads around your neck for a week, but of course he is overambitious, to a fault, anyway it might not be 3 years till we’ll get rid of him i hear the federal dpp are still sniffing around there might be a nasty new year present for him!!!!!
    Ps The American Political term for laming is a lame duck like bush!!!!!

  11. I thought this blog would be shut down by now but thankfully not. thorny mick adds some reasonable insights.

    I am happy to leave the last comments to Shane-o as above –
    “incompetent fool” – says it all.

    redlands rod

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