Saturday evening. This post will be used to follow the final stages of the count in Bowman, where at the close of election night counting the ABC computer has Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming and Labor candidate Jason Young locked together on 50.0-50.0. On raw figures Labor is 0.3 per cent ahead, but the Liberals had a relatively stronger performance on absent, pre-poll and postal votes in 2004.
Sunday evening. About a quarter of the pre-poll votes have been counted, and they have so far been swinging to Labor 8.1 per cent compared with 9.3 per cent from the booths. If that 8.1 per cent remains constant through the pre-poll and postal votes, the result will go right down to the wire with a Labor win of 200 votes.
Monday 6pm. I was in error in the previous entry: pre-polls are not in fact swinging differently to booth votes, although Laming is still closing the gap in absolute terms. Today they have added 609 for Laming and 539 for Young, after yesterday’s 590 and 466. Together they have narrowed the gap from 159 votes to 55. Pre-polls are thus following their pattern from 2004 when they favoured the Liberals. Postals and absentee votes however were a lot stronger for Labor, which is why my adjusted figures in red and blue above have Labor in the lead.
Tuesday 3pm. Laming has taken a 27-vote lead after the addition of another 1366 pre-polls, which split 724-642 in his favour. However, the swing to Labor on pre-polls is in fact tracking slightly upwards. Everything depends on whether absents and postals follow the same pattern of relative favourability to Labor from 2004.
Wednesday 5pm. Young has recovered the lead after a strong performance from 1664 postal votes, about a third of the likely total. These have split 856-808 in his favour for a double-digit swing compared with 2004, putting him 21 votes in front. His adjusted lead has increased from 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent.
Thursday 4pm. Postal votes continue to trickle Young’s way, a further 1955 breaking 997-958 and increasing his lead to 60 votes.
Friday 3pm. The addition of 1672 absent votes, probably half of the total, has increased Young’s lead by 56 votes.
Monday 3pm. A further 1105 absent votes have increased Young’s lead by 47, while adjustments to booth figures have cost Young seven votes and Laming three. Young currently leads by 159.
Monday 11pm. A curious development: the results from the Capalaba booth have been shifted to Capalaba School, and Capalaba is now listed as having 81 fewer votes for Laming and 121 fewer for Young than Capalaba School did previously (uncanny how every single thing seems to be running against Labor in every single seat). On top of that, a further 903 postal votes have gone 465-438 in Laming’s favour. Combined with minor adjustments in other booths, Young is now just 90 votes ahead. There are still 762 postal and about 400 provisional votes to be counted.
Wednesday 7pm. Truly are the election gods smiling upon the Coalition. A further 2043 pre-poll votes have split 1129-914 in Laming’s favour, giving him 55.3 per cent compared with his previous 53.9 per cent from this source. After a few more booth result adjustments, Laming has now gained a 119-vote lead. Still to come are 1003 absent votes, which might be expected to boost Young by around 40 votes, 627 pre-polls which should boost Laming by about 50, and a handful of postals which should split evenly. Nor can Young expect to gain around 40 votes from provisionals.
Thursday 7pm. Postals: another 425 gives Young a surprise 57-vote break. Pre-polls: a further 429 provide another pleasant surprise for Young, going 217-212 his way. Provisionals: 112 of these, going 58-54 to Young. Re-checking: Laming gains nine votes and Young gains two. That leaves Laming with a lead of just 46 votes. Reportedly still to come: 226 postals and 70 pre-polls. Young needs 58 per cent of them.
Friday 8pm. With 199 postal votes breaking 127-72 to Laming, the prospect of a Young comeback is diminishing. Other than that, only a small number of pre-poll and absent votes added. Booth votes are unchanged.