| 2007 | 2004 | ||||
| ALP | LIB | ALP | LIB | Swing | |
| Booths | 34,067 50.16 |
33,851 49.84 |
26,919 41.21 |
38,402 58.79 |
8.95 |
| Pre-Poll | 2,802 46.03 |
3,285 53.97 |
1,635 36.21 |
2,880 63.79 |
9.82 |
| Absent | 1,681 52.43 |
1525 47.57 |
1,456 44.16 |
1,841 55.84 |
8.27 |
| Postal | 2363 50.05 |
2358 49.95 |
1,769 41.30 |
2,514 58.70 |
8.75 |
| Provisional | 58 51.79 |
54 48.21 |
180 45.80 |
213 54.20 |
5.98 |
| Total | 40,971 49.94 |
41,073 50.06 |
31,805 40.88 |
46,004 59.12 |
9.06 |
| ALP | 50.0 | ||||
| LIB | 50.0 | ||||
Saturday evening. This post will be used to follow the final stages of the count in Bowman, where at the close of election night counting the ABC computer has Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming and Labor candidate Jason Young locked together on 50.0-50.0. On raw figures Labor is 0.3 per cent ahead, but the Liberals had a relatively stronger performance on absent, pre-poll and postal votes in 2004.
Sunday evening. About a quarter of the pre-poll votes have been counted, and they have so far been swinging to Labor 8.1 per cent compared with 9.3 per cent from the booths. If that 8.1 per cent remains constant through the pre-poll and postal votes, the result will go right down to the wire with a Labor win of 200 votes.
Monday 6pm. I was in error in the previous entry: pre-polls are not in fact swinging differently to booth votes, although Laming is still closing the gap in absolute terms. Today they have added 609 for Laming and 539 for Young, after yesterday’s 590 and 466. Together they have narrowed the gap from 159 votes to 55. Pre-polls are thus following their pattern from 2004 when they favoured the Liberals. Postals and absentee votes however were a lot stronger for Labor, which is why my adjusted figures in red and blue above have Labor in the lead.
Tuesday 3pm. Laming has taken a 27-vote lead after the addition of another 1366 pre-polls, which split 724-642 in his favour. However, the swing to Labor on pre-polls is in fact tracking slightly upwards. Everything depends on whether absents and postals follow the same pattern of relative favourability to Labor from 2004.
Wednesday 5pm. Young has recovered the lead after a strong performance from 1664 postal votes, about a third of the likely total. These have split 856-808 in his favour for a double-digit swing compared with 2004, putting him 21 votes in front. His adjusted lead has increased from 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent.
Thursday 4pm. Postal votes continue to trickle Young’s way, a further 1955 breaking 997-958 and increasing his lead to 60 votes.
Friday 3pm. The addition of 1672 absent votes, probably half of the total, has increased Young’s lead by 56 votes.
Monday 3pm. A further 1105 absent votes have increased Young’s lead by 47, while adjustments to booth figures have cost Young seven votes and Laming three. Young currently leads by 159.
Monday 11pm. A curious development: the results from the Capalaba booth have been shifted to Capalaba School, and Capalaba is now listed as having 81 fewer votes for Laming and 121 fewer for Young than Capalaba School did previously (uncanny how every single thing seems to be running against Labor in every single seat). On top of that, a further 903 postal votes have gone 465-438 in Laming’s favour. Combined with minor adjustments in other booths, Young is now just 90 votes ahead. There are still 762 postal and about 400 provisional votes to be counted.
Wednesday 7pm. Truly are the election gods smiling upon the Coalition. A further 2043 pre-poll votes have split 1129-914 in Laming’s favour, giving him 55.3 per cent compared with his previous 53.9 per cent from this source. After a few more booth result adjustments, Laming has now gained a 119-vote lead. Still to come are 1003 absent votes, which might be expected to boost Young by around 40 votes, 627 pre-polls which should boost Laming by about 50, and a handful of postals which should split evenly. Nor can Young expect to gain around 40 votes from provisionals.
Thursday 7pm. Postals: another 425 gives Young a surprise 57-vote break. Pre-polls: a further 429 provide another pleasant surprise for Young, going 217-212 his way. Provisionals: 112 of these, going 58-54 to Young. Re-checking: Laming gains nine votes and Young gains two. That leaves Laming with a lead of just 46 votes. Reportedly still to come: 226 postals and 70 pre-polls. Young needs 58 per cent of them.
Friday 8pm. With 199 postal votes breaking 127-72 to Laming, the prospect of a Young comeback is diminishing. Other than that, only a small number of pre-poll and absent votes added. Booth votes are unchanged.
And today’s postals have thrown it wide open again!
My projections now have Laming winning by 27!
I had so much fun this time a by-election looks good! i dont believe the Workplace health and Safety Act requires that anyone (including WHSQ) update their websites Shane-o but I appreciate your research. that is where turnbulls rubbish statements about 12 labor candidates came unstuck.
Also, does “entitled” mean you actually get paid anything and does this have relevance to an office for profit etc etc? I’m not sure but I think you’ll let me know.
If by some long bow your research about it has validity some Liberal hack should be getting a pasting for not raising it earlier.
I think its the pre-polls that have brought it back (Ordinary, Postal and Absent votes have all favoured Young) but i don’t disagree it is going to be extremely close – my original call of Young by 58 looks good!
Yes, and if I’d been working for Laming I’d be pretty fed up with his lack lustre performance. There is no way this bloke?> would ever get pre selected again. A sitting member should have been able to improve his position. Instead he’s been done like a turkey and the swing against him is far greater than the national average.
Yes Doodles, a guy who understands and cares about people and their problems, add to that a true sincerity and you have Jason Young. Give me a practical person any day, not someone who changes their job every week and sticks at nothing, who however many times he meets you never seems to remember that he has.
i am interested in callums numbers (comment 44) from the AEC site – 1049 Provisionals?? I don’t see anywhere that the AEC says how many votes are left in any particular category to count. Last time there were less than 400 Provisional – where are these votes from and why such a big increase?? any thoughts??
Update at 6.51 Tuesday by AEC- Young ahead by 90
can we get a definitive number of how many left to count??
Rod,
here’s the link to the page detailing votes yet to count:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-155.htm
And also Poodle, Laming tried to claim credit for work that in fact belonged to State Labor anyway and noticeably he dropped all association with Liberals and John Howard in the first week of the campaign. Young did not have to drop the leader of the Labor party as he was proud to be part of a winning team and pleased to talk about Labor party policy. With strong leadership he did not have to make up local issues and policies of his own.
I WENT TO TWO FORUMS THAT LAMING WAS INVITED TO PARICIPATE IN, ONE ABOUT WORK CHOICES AND THE OTHER AT INDIGISCAPES ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE.
ANDREW LAMING DID NOT COME. HE DID NOT TURN UP. ALL THE OTHER CANDIDATES WERE THERE.
HE DID NOT RESPOND TO A QUESTIONNAIRE ABOUT CLIMATE OR ONE FROM THE GET UP ORGANISATION?
WHO KNOWS WHAT HE THINKS BUT I SUPPOSE HE HOPES WE’RE ALL IDIOTS. WELL WE’RE NOT.
thanks callum
they are massive increases on last time for each of those categories – any thoughts why??
I’ve prepared a results to date spreadsheet with projected totals based on the current splits.
Link below should take you there:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pohWYDTarjPB0KDGQkQStDQ&gridlines=false
Certainly a big increase in pre-poll and provisional votes since 2004 Rod. No, I don’t know why. I too would welcome explanations, especially with the pre-polls favouring the Liberal candidate so much.
The spreadsheet is worrying, here’s to hoping the second half of the pre-polls split more favourably at more like 48.5/51.5 or that the provisionals swing by more than the electorate average
Only a small number of the provisional votes are actually going to be counted. You cast a provisional vote if your name has been crossed off already and you swear you haven’t voted, or when you raise a stink at the polling booth about not being on the roll. In either case you lodge a “provisional” vote which doesn’t get counted unless you establish your bona fides. Most of them turn out to be people who simply weren’t on the roll and are thus ineligible. Look at the results from Swan: 1469 envelopes received, 1099 rejected, 134 counted, 236 presumably to be adjudicated.
And following the overnight correction, my projections have
Laming by 80
Following this morning’s counting, I direct you to comment 13 😉
I’ve updated my spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pohWYDTarjPB0KDGQkQStDQ&gridlines=false
With Laming’s improved split on the last batch of pre-polls the projected margin is now Laming by 126 votes. Still close.
To The Speaker and Redlands Rod.
Dont try to claim on those betting tickets just yet. Interesting figures coming in.
This is extremely close.
SoSo it is Noodles with an N.
How on earth is Lamming now 60 in front?
To SoSo re comment #58.
I am so sorry, I was under the misapprehension that we went to the Polls to vote for a LOCAL representative who would give us a voice at Federal level for any issues that we may have.
Under your understanding we should have merely voted Nationwide on a two party basis. I am happy to have a representative who can actually think for themselves instead of merely following party directives. I am sorry but I think local issues should be important at all levels of Government. Maybe if we had a television sports commentator to call upon that would give us some much needed political credibility at a State level as well.
Laming stretches further ahead – now 125 votes in front.
Projections (excluding provisionals) now say a Laming victory by 140
Dear Spoodles
If Laming had been so excited about what he was going to do for us at a local level why didn’t he bother to turn up to two forums to tell us. No, this bloke is only concerned with “me, me, me” and is not interested in helping people with problems. I’ll say it again , he has done nothing for this electorate and he will do even less if he wins in opposition. If he wins there will be a by-election within 18 months.
*smirks*
My spreadsheet linked to in #67 now updated with results from AEC at 2:17 pm.
Another batch of pre-polls counted with the split to Laming being slighty less, percentage wise, than last time.
Laming now leads by 125 with a projected final margin of 140 votes.
Did anyone put money on Bowman being the most marginal seat after the election?
What about Solomon…?
My predictions are that Labor will win Solomon by 9 votes!
Whichever way the result goes I thank William,Callum, Redlands Rod and Shane-O for interesting and intelligent input and analysis on this matter. As an OLDER voter it is indeed refreshing and encouraging for all of our futures that we have a generation of clear thinkers coming through the ranks[whichever political persuasion you may hold]. Please all keep up your interest after this election is forgotten as all of our futures depend on it.
My poor SoSo,
Perhaps your good man Jason could direct you to the local dyslexic support group as you seem to have trouble with your spelling.
By the way you didn’t happen to attend the open forum at the Donald Simpson center at Cleveland when both candidates were asked unannounced questions from the floor, Jasons stumbling responses were priceless. It almost seemed as if he needed to know the questions before he attended.But that would be cynical.
As for a by-election where did that come from.
Noodles,
Thanks for the kind message but those is glass houses….
Your grammar is atrocious!
Isn’t that atroshus.
(Cough) … not over yet …
Correction to my comment at #74: last batch of pre-polls actually split slightly *better* for Laming which is why his projected margin has increased slightly.
Hardly an open forum old Doodles when you had to register and rsvp to attend. In fact so closed that even a senator was not allowed to speak and so obviously rigged even some paticipants were embarrassed and changed their vote. Why else was there a 9% swing to the Labor Party and Bowman has become the least safe seat in the country for the Liberals (if Laming is still a member of the Liberals?).
*giggles*
I think a few early mornings on Old Cleveland Road has sent Soso a little stir crazy!
🙂
Who would want to hear (demoted) Senator McLucas’ dribble anyway?
I would have thought that an R.S.V.P. would ensure that the forum wouldn’t be may i say stacked as it was a day-time week day occasion where only people with a genuine interest would attend. As for safe seats …..after the last week and a half one thing should be blatently obvious to both sides of the political fence….THERE ARE NO SAFE SEATS IF YOU DONT’T LISTEN TO PEOPLE!!!!
By the way you forgot to say if you attended the said event.
P.S. keep working on the spelling.
Must be wonderful for Andy to have such a sopportive mummy like Noodles. I notice you agree it was not an open forum. A working day in working time, if you understand the meaning of the word, is hardly a time many people can attend.
Well,another useless Liberal joke survives.Poor Bowman!!!
He wasn’t much chop whilst Howard ruled the Tory roost,he’ll be even less value now that Rudd runs the show.
Roll on the next poll,and Bowman will shift back into the Labor fold,where it has been in past times.
Work hard Laming,you’ll need to.LOL!!!!
sorry I’ve been working all day and missed all the interesting discussion -hmmm
Pre-polls have certainly slammed young all the way through – worth looking at after the election I think.
at 119 the difference is certainly do-able but always a hard ask for the one who is behind as laming has known until yesterday. still think my bet is live though!!
Callum – if there were 5618 postals issued and they have until Friday to be returned shouldn’t the “number to be counted” be higher? there is a difference of about 700 and I wouldn’t expect anywhere near that many, but I would think some would come in. what do you think?
Noodles – I suspect SoSo doesn’t think Laming will stick it out for a full term , dilettante that he is, and that will cause a by election.
This evening’s AEC update at 6:27 pm just some adjustment to ordinary vote tallies. Laming down by 4, Young up by 2 and informals up by 5.
I’ve updated my spreadsheet with these figures.
Rod, for my Votes figures for the non-ordinaries I’m using ‘Envelopes Received’ minus ‘Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny’. Yes, in the case of postals there might still be some received before Friday but I don’t know how many so I’m just using the figure we have now. BTW, I’m just a rank amateur at this.
I am repeatedly having to delete or edit comments relating to the “printgate” affair which are plainly defamatory. Suave was the most recent offender.
Asking for an inquiry into the actions of the federal police is defamatory? How and why?
“Printgate ” has become like Basil in Fawlty Towers “don’t mention the war.” This is biased journalism on your part William.
thanks callum – you are doing great. i do my figures on the back of an envelope while i sit here. the large number of pre-polls (and the consistent support for laming in them) is what affected my earlier predictions. still going to be close i think!
As for noodles, and other liberal supporters – seeing Laming is such a fantastic local representative and outstanding politician I hear he will be parachuted into one of the very few safe state seats and be made Liberal leader in QLD!!! what a great outcome that would be for Queensland and Bowman.
Suave, your comment included a statement that any reasonable person would interpret as meaning that a certain person who has not been charged and isn’t going to be did in fact commit a criminal offence. Since you obviously can’t be trusted to behave sensibly, I don’t see I have any choice but to ban you.
Hear hear!
One thing that is a constant in politics across the country….
The more your opposition hates you, the better you’re doing.
Laming has withstood a dodgy investigation, a $1.5 million local Labor campaign funded by the ETU (No Ticket No Start Pty Ltd) and an active YR@W campaign with paid local organisers.
Despite these setbacks, he looks set to claim victory.
Pretty impressive if you ask me
Methinks Shane-o is really Andrew Laming 😉
I don’t have the energy!
Latest AEC update at 12:38 pm today.
Simply more finessing of the ordinary votes tallies.
Laming up by 2, Young up by 9, Informals down by 7. Total ordinary vote count up by 4.
My updated spreadsheet showing Laming ahead by 112, with a projected final margin of 117.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pohWYDTarjPB0KDGQkQStDQ&gridlines=false
This projection does not factor in the provisionals as we do not know how many will be accepted and how they will split.
Sorry, projected margin of 127 not 117.
They’ve also received (found?) some more pre-polls which I’ve added in, but no more postals.