Sky News and Seven exit polls: 53-47

Sky News exit poll has Labor leading 53-47. That’s in 31 selected marginal seats. Apparently it suggests 54-46 overall. Howard trails 53-47 in Bennelong. Labor 58-42 ahead in Eden-Monaro.

UPDATE: Channel Seven exit poll says 53-47 nationally, 53.5-46.5 in Bennelong, 8 per cent swing to Labor in Bass, 6 per cent swing in Braddon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

287 comments on “Sky News and Seven exit polls: 53-47”

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  4. I heard a whisper that Labor is confident – based on their pollling last night – that they will pick up 28 seats. The whisper could be spin – but I think it matches these exit polls.

  9. The Kerry exit polls were biased because they were conducted at precincts (not by phone) by college students who mostly interviewed other college students.

  11. OMG… Just flicked over to 7 for a second and they have Mark Arbib and Barnaby Joyce on their panel… Usual Chanel 7 balance going on…

  15. FORGET EXIT POLLS
    DO NOT GET EXCITED AT ALL

    TV channels do not cover the following

    1/ Exit Polls declare only those people who own up to how they voted
    and do NOT give you a % tally of ‘refused to answer’
    so they are not a true sample

    2/ Exit polls over a particular BOOTH are useless as booths vary in voting patterns over a seat. My booth is in a 80% liberal vote area against a 55% actual vote

  20. Dont worry Flash 10 , most people in Queensland and Western Australia , who havent yet voted are out and about enjoying themselves, not political crazies like us, sitting forever in front of the computer, waiting for the polls to close! Those voters will just go and vote for who they planned to anyway. There are always voters who who leave it to the last thing.

  21. Mad Cow: we’re going to get Paterson? I want Jim Arneman to win, I read his bio on the Labor website, and I think he’d make a terrific member of parliament.
    Seems like a great bloke!

  24. I thought this was a blog for political junkies and amateur psephologists.. but it’s looking like a partisan lefty love-in tonight. shame.

  26. [FORGET EXIT POLLS
    DO NOT GET EXCITED AT ALL]

    LOL. The exit poll is saying exactly what the polls have been telling us (except yesterday).

    People, get excited. It is all over. Enjoy……..!

  28. ron brown

    if the refuseniks vote in the same proportion as those polled then it makes no diff. Of course they arguably would be more secretive/ embarrased by their voting intention and hence likely to be a greater proportion of coalition voters

  29. Brenton – what? You mean not everyone is hitting refresh every few seconds? My god this is so much fun after being worried for so long. 8 more minutes and then fun can really begin!

  30. Even Bennalong

    I used to live in Gladesville suburb in Bennalong
    working class
    strong Labor

    Go to Eastwood or Putney suburbs also in Bennalong
    posh homes
    strong Liberal

    where are the booths doing the exit polls on !!!

    ie I take no notice

  33. Here’s my xmas wish list..

    1. Rudd wins (finally some hope for this country)
    2. Rudd wins so convincingly noone ever tries to duplicate Howard/Costello/Abbot/etc
    3. Bennelong falls.
    4. Wentworth falls (as a reminder that money can’t buy votes and dirty tricks aren’t liked)
    4. Paterson falls (same thing Baldwin has spent 1.5 million bucks)
    5. Liberals lose outright control in the senate.
    6. Several prominent ministers dissapear in enormous swing (oh the symbolism)

    🙂

  36. sydgal is spot on

    i havent had this much fun standing up in ages….come to think of it i havent had this much fun lying down either…

    🙂

  37. Jusr heard on Sky that Overthetop ‘assaulted Newhouse at a polling booth. She apparently punched him in the face-later reduced to pushed with a open hand. what a goose.

  38. Put a sock in it everyone and wait for thr real results. The ones the scrutineers start counting at 6pm. Exit polls are not the real poll.

    🙂

  39. HH Big swing here. Don’t know if it’s 6.8% just yet. You know what Labor ought to have done is point out that Baldwin will be useless as an *opposition* back bencher. A lot of people only voted for him for the pork, or the perception of pork.

  43. Ron

    They would obviously have sampled a range of booths within bennelong, given the wide demographic. They want to get it right. Polling just one or two booths would be absolutely stupid.

  44. The exit polls are a fantastic sign and I feel that we are in for a great result. Not all done and counted yet but looking pretty damn good so far.

  46. nostradoofus, you’re quite right exit polls aren’t the real one, but everything converges — pre-poll, exit poll. very little contradiction anywhere. alp almost certain to win, just a matter of how much.

  48. Marko Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
    Steven Lloyd – Howard in Bunker, asking around for a pistol…
    Yes he has asked Tony abbott to bring around the wife and kids to

  50. Mad Cow: it’d be hilarious if Baldwin gets beaten after spending all that money, and an under resourced Labor candidate wins.
    Paterson isn’t too far from where I live, so I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for Jim.

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