Sky News and Seven exit polls: 53-47

Sky News exit poll has Labor leading 53-47. That’s in 31 selected marginal seats. Apparently it suggests 54-46 overall. Howard trails 53-47 in Bennelong. Labor 58-42 ahead in Eden-Monaro.

UPDATE: Channel Seven exit poll says 53-47 nationally, 53.5-46.5 in Bennelong, 8 per cent swing to Labor in Bass, 6 per cent swing in Braddon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

287 comments on “Sky News and Seven exit polls: 53-47”

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  3. God you’ve been a wet blanket Ron Brown (65) Nevertheless, you have a point. I’m keeping the lid on at the moment. I’ll believe it when I see it.

  9. Amazingly you can still get Labor at 1.20 at canbet. They are giving money away. Needless to say I have helped myself. Sportingbet closed their book seconds after the exit poll came out… they are obviously not in the mood to hand out profits to punters.

  10. I like the look of ’em exit polls though 🙂

    Innacurate yes, but they seems to be consistently so\ in one directilon. again.

    I gather there’s an MOE of 2% on the Sky news one (2700 sample) – so we’re ahead any way you slice it 🙂

    Lets wait an see….

  11. Make of it what you will.
    An affable self-proclaimed senior liberal told me (bear in mind I was handing out YR@W HTVs in an orange t-shirt) he had seen the last round of Liberal polling and they were going to win by 2 seats but they were still going to be hammered in Qld.

    Re exit polls: a lot more people declined YR@W and ALP HTVs as the day wore on.

  17. Captain jack — exactly right. the more independent bits of information pointing in the same direction, the more likely the direction they’re pointing in is the one things are going.

  18. polls still not closed up here guys… let’s take a deep breath before getting to oexcited.. there is plenty of time tonight to enjoy this if it all works out… don’t get too worked up …

    have to say I did plenty of travel around bris vegas today and there was a real rudd rules brisbane feel… my parents both voted labor for the first time in 4 elections and that was the general feel from my family as a whole… I think it is fair to say qld is swinging large (in my little micro experiment!!)

  19. Why, Spiros?
    There’s nothing particularly special here. Few of us really like Baldwin. The 6.8% margin is inflated by a bunch of factors including the collapse of the Labor vote in some tradtional Labor booths last time thanks to the Lathan factor.

    I’m still calling it very close.

  20. I don’t want to build my hopes up to fall Snap. The AEC virtual tally room has no votes counted thus nothing to get excited about yet. I love the enthusiasm, but we have to see Howard concede and the final official result.

    Love Youse All. Don’t wanna be a party pooper.

  27. reports that Howard went back out this afternoon to Bennelong and campaigned right to 4.30.

    Will there be tears? Can’t wait to see Hyacinth.

  30. Understand totally nostradoofous, but i think it was all over at week 2. you never know for sure till it’s confirmed though, so fair enough. but i don’t see much cause for concern right now.

  33. 23
    Phil Robins Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 5:38 pm
    Morgan the most accurate tipster!

    All the polls did well except Galaxy and the weird last Newspoll – prior to that they were pretty close.

  41. I hope all goes well for the labor supporters.

    But I cant be as happy as I woud like after reading the News.com.au article about little shellay ward’s funeral.Only 6 people including police meda person. No burial- just transported anonymously to the cremn a few days.

    Unfortunately it links in as she died in Hawks Nest -Howards holiday town. ays it all.

  44. I handed out how to vote card at two booths in Forrest today, both in Busselton. There is swing to labor, the Independent Noel Brunning was a no show and had no representatives at any booths. Libs showed up very late to all booths in the area and were surprisingly disappointing in their showing.

    If Johnnie looses Bennelong I will be so happy..

  47. mrs gusface here

    just on my second glass of white, gusface has resurface. Had a very exciting day at local school, fundraising for them (god is great to have the community spirit back again)and meeting Mr C Thompson and ignoring Mr Ticehurst, what a great day!!

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