ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 16
 54 46 47 43
Nov 2
 55 45 48 41
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  2. Thursday November 15, 07:44 PM

    Rudd takes fight to safe coalition seats:

    Labor leader Kevin Rudd put his trench warfare theory of campaigning into action on Thursday, launching raids on two safe coalition seats.

    With just nine days left before the November 24 election, Mr Rudd hit the Brisbane seat of Bowman, held by the Liberals by 8.9 per cent, and the Nationals stronghold of Dawson, in north Queensland, held by former minister De-Anne Kelly by almost 10 per cent.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/071014/2/14o65.html

  3. The papers and Lateline remind me of an old western where the buzzards are circling above the staked-out cowboy. Bleached bones seem to be the Government’s destiny.

  5. [288 Tory Crimes-Not half as sick as some of the slobbering over Julia Gillard. That’s sadomasochistic!]

    Gillard is better than Bishop – Bishop’s eyes are too close together. It would be like being with, well, Peter Costello.

  6. Proof finally proof. Abbott stuffs up again. I think this is the final nail in the coffin
    RIP John Howard
    The media should have a field day with this one.

  7. Channel 10 just ripped Howard a fresh one over the *c0rrupt* regional grants scheme.

    Nice to see the MSM making govt accountable for a change.

  10. This Abbott stuff is amazing! How will they BS their way out of this one?
    Today has been a complete and utter disaster for the coalition!

  11. ShowsOn, there have been some great bargains lately on the ASX – try IMP at .013 and AIM at 21.5 or better. GRK at 12 or less is a steal. CRK under 2.00 is extremely cheap. They’re actually worth around 15.00. KAR is another great buy at 3.50 or less. You need nerves of steel.

  12. We’ll all be buggered said Shanahan

    “We’ll all be buggered,” said Shanahan,
    In accents most forlorn,
    Outside the pub, ere votin’ began,
    One sunny Saturday morn.

    The Liberal hacks stood about,
    mobiles to the ears,
    And talked of unions, and surpluses, and drought,
    As they had done for years.

    “It’s looking crook,” said Piers on coke;
    “Bedad, it’s cruke, me lad,
    For never since the polls went broke
    Has Howard looked so bad.”

    “It’s stuffed, all right,” said Janet A,
    With which astute remark
    She squatted down upon her heels
    And howled a doglike bark.

    And so around the chorus ran
    “It’s unions everywhere, no doubt.”
    “We’ll all be buggered,” said Shanahan,
    “Before the year is out.”

  13. [I’m in WA. You guys watching Late Line over east have just convinced me to watch, tape, burn to DVD and letterbox my suburb with the episode- setting up for it now, thanks for the warning]

    I hope for legal purposes you put an Authorised by tag on t label/sleeve so as not get in the shit with Electoral laws.

    Copyright – I’d go for the fair use provisions 🙂

  14. OK worst performers of the campaign:

    Abbott
    Garrett
    Turnbull
    Newhouse
    Cornes (though never given a chance – I’m a softie)
    Vaile (that skateboarding…)

    any other noms?

  17. 307 Tory Crimes- So was Natasha SD which I can understand. Still, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I still think drooling over Julia is just plain wrong!

  21. Where is ACME Fightback when you need it? 😉

    Maybe Howie can break into Keating’s house and steal it out of his draw where he keeps it?

    May i just point out that despite the fact that some people have had their conditions reduced, if they it is done with the fairness test it is illegal.

    Well from 10’s news report tonight we all know that Paul B. will be voting for Rudd this election.

  22. Adam, if you remove all the link code, then highlight the text you want linked and insert the link via the pop up window that happens when you press the little chain button, it will come up all nice and neat. Just make sure your in the “visual” rather than the “code” tab when your in the edit mode in the dashboard. When you put in the link, you only want to put in the actual address like http://www.lookatthis.com/this_page.html rather than than any html code like href or whatnot.

  26. 312 Frank

    Thanks for the warning, just gonna lend it to my neighbours incase they missed it. All 500 of them.

    I’ll remember to get it back later i am sure.

    Also since it is the Libs message, I dont think they will authorise it somehow.

  27. Seven little words that should be repeated over and over by the ALP and The Greens:

    “Performance Audit of the Regional Partnerships Programme”

    “Third world standard corruption” one commentator said – on Sky I think.

  29. And Abbott was a Rhodes Scholar!! My God!! We know who’s going to be locked in a wardrobe for a week.

    But again this just shows the arrogance of the Libs. “Your best defence is to get a new job”. Yeh, right. I’m sure all those unskilled workers out there will be able to pick and choose their jobs with Costello’s tsunami coming.

    Work Choices got Labor back into the game in 2006. Rudd’s rise to the leadership got Labor in front, and now Abbott has just provided the death knell to his political idol.

  30. Margo Kingston has put some useful material about the ANAO report on the ‘regional partnerships’ plus links on Webdiary at http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/837

    A preliminary scan of the MSM websites suggests that it will be pretty prominent tomorrow. At the moment, Howard’s in denial, saying he hasn’t read the report, but that excuse will only last so long.

  33. Does anyone think that Labor will uses phrases from the auditor-general report in their TV ads?

    The theme would be something like “Look how economically irresponsible these guys are – and they claim to be fiscal conservatives? Sorry Mr Howard, but you’ve lost me…”

  34. Jen (286), thanks, just needed a reality check after my pulse raced in the airport, i was tempted to shout aimless abuse at her but i kept my tongue. Perhaps that was my problem; sublimation. Anyway, now back to safe and normal Julia dreaming.

    I thought Abbott looked good on Lateline, no tiny baby fragments in teeth.

  35. I just got an invite to a nearby street corner meeting with Nicole Cornes this coming Saturday. I think I’ll go along and see what she’s made of for myself.

  38. seajay @ 333,

    [I thought Abbott looked good on Lateline, no tiny baby fragments in teeth.]

    Actually, the shots that they had of Abbott had him having a rather unappealing brown-coloured front tooth – which contrasted rather well with his other white ones. Not the greatest look – but perfect footage for a Labor ad!

  41. Viewers vote on Sky
    “Will the auditor Generals report change your vote”
    Yes 50% No 50%

    Finally Labour nearly wins a poll on Sky News. About bloody time.

    Times must be serious for Howard. I hope he sleeps well tonight. I wouldn’t want to be in the same room as him when he wakes up.

  42. Ms Twain at 297 – up here, khaki is the new black I’ll have you know!

    It was Stevey Irwin day today. And white shoes are just so passe – pointy snakeskin clodhoppers are shoes de jour for any respectable property developer north of the Rio Tweed

  43. Grog @ 313,
    Abbott’s clearly the worst. I know I nominated Cornes a while back for “most hapless” but TA needs to be held to a higher standard with his experience, and he’s just lost it altogether since his day from hell a couple of weeks back.
    Newhouse putting in a solid late run this week. May well finish just out of the places.
    I think you’re hard on Turnbull to put him on the short-list. I’d say his performance has been pretty close to the best in a well-beaten team. Definitely so if he ends up holding Wentworth.
    On the Labor side no-one senior has been really bad. Garrett just made one stuff-up really.

  44. Jeez, it;s a long list.

    Ok, easier – best performers.

    Rudd (obviously)
    Julia
    errrr….

    btw Andrews would have to be life memeber of the other list

  45. Best performer this campaign – clearly Julia Gillard. I mean, how come she has to debate three Ministers (I think it was three in the end)? Calm, steady,supersmart, funny. I am hoping she is next PM (after Rudd, of course).

    At some stage, I am thinking I will need to change my pseudonym….

  48. The Mad Monk: LMFAO! Did anyone predict Abbott would be the first minister to completely implode with a week to go? The Labor Party better get this into a new ad and get it on air tomorrow night and over the weekend.
    Let me guess: Abbott and Hockey will claim he was misquoted?

  49. [Actually, the shots that they had of Abbott had him having a rather unappealing brown-coloured front tooth – which contrasted rather well with his other white ones. Not the greatest look – but perfect footage for a Labor ad!]

    A good Labor ad would have the voice over say “Tell Mr Howard and Mr Abbot what you think of WorkChoices…” Then cut to Abbott at the health debate “That’s bullshit”.

    😛

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