ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

Nov 16
54 46 47 43
Nov 2
55 45 48 41
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  1. I wonder if the Labor primary vote is still at the same number as last poll – most likely, on such a tiny (within MoE) 2PP movement. Either way, another poll which cements a loss.

  2. OMG.

    Brisso, Mega and Hartcher.

    Three reasonable, nonaffiliated (relatively) unbiased, well informed commentators discussing stuff like margin of error.

    On the 7:30 Report.


  3. Yes

    And he does have quite a sexy voice…

    But in any event, am reposting my concern about the MSM and trust that William will put up a thread about its woeful behaviour…

    lets not forget the shanahan car story the other week…that has to be up there for a “jeanette”…for “meritrious efforts to keep the grand dame in her home at Kirribilli”..oh, its the public’s? I never knew…

    so here’s the repeat:

    GetReal Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 7:40 pm
    Kevin “Rud”

    Says it all about the commitment to accuracy in our MSM

    On the basis that the polls hold true, they are going to have to seriously have to examine how they covered this whole campaign, and indeed the whole year as a political “story”

    If so they would have to be honest to expose themselves as creative story-tellers, constructing a “narrative” of colour and movement…

    journalism as a subset of creative accounting: this teams UP!!!!, this teams DOWN!!!!

    trouble is, they sold and bought-back the line of Rattus Howard, Politicus Perfectus….

    they are a suitable mirror for the narcissus of the likes of howard, costello and downer who glory in the reflected beauty of the front pages of the GG…

    and Alex, how long did it take to learn your few sentences of schoolboy french?

    repeat after me: la plume de ma tante…..

  4. pants off seats people, we havent won it yet. Put some posters up, letterbox a suburb, talk to a stranger in the pub…we gotta win this for our own and our children’s future. Get the great divider out of the lodge!

  5. fiztig @ 12 -I often see him having breakfast at Orange Cafe in windsor most weekends – maybe you should appear and make a total dork of yourseld 😉

  6. 54-46 TPP a little more than a week out from the election is landslide territory! Even 53-47 on the night will be good – that’s the TPP the ALP got in the Hawke landslide of 1983. 🙂

    Also a good omen for the ALP is that in the individual seat betting in Centrebet, Portlandbet and Sportingbet shows ALP the favourite to win in 17-19 Coalition seats with the ALP given a 40-49.9% chance of winning a further swag of seats: Page, Petrie, Corangamite, McMillan, Stirling, McEwen, Leichhardt and Sturt. 🙂

    Unfortunately, according to the individual seat betting markets, the ALP has a less than a 40% chance of winning Bennelong. 🙁

  7. I presume everyone heard George the greek say the GG was going to carry a state by state breakdown of recent newspolls?

    It will need to cover the shocking 53-47 result, so basically I can’t wait to see the breakdown…was it Queensland that narrowed? – its going to be a long night

  8. One week to go and the polls are still 55/45. So why should Rudd appear on Insiders. No news is good news from now on. Let Rodent does all the running and tired itself out. All Rudd needs to do is to look ready to GOVERN without looking smug or arrogant.

    BTW: Where is Smirk lately, he has been invisible since last Monday launch.

  9. LoL Bob Brown on the ABC. “The Greens will limit Global Warming to 2 degrees.” Will be interesting to see the primaries on this one.

  10. *ahem* Now back to the issue at hand. It was nice to see intellectual discussion on the 7:30 Report tonight. Interesting to hear the Coalition are still believers in the possibility of a win with 48% TPP. They must really be hoping that just the right marginals swing in just the right way – but then they face the fact that the ALP have been campaigning in semi-safe Coalition seats with 10% margins. Surely by this stage they’d need all the stars to align with the planets, galaxies and random asteroids for that scenario to play out.

  11. Mr Squiggle Says: “I presume everyone heard George the greek say the GG was going to carry a state by state breakdown of recent newspolls? It will need to cover the shocking 53-47 result, so basically I can’t wait to see the breakdown…was it Queensland that narrowed? – its going to be a long night”

    From one George the Greek commenting on the other George the Greek, yep, noted and can’t wait to see the breakdowns. Both the number breakdowns and the coalition minister breakdowns….

  12. Don’t forget that the latest ACN was done before:

    1. The latest scandal about the Regional Partner Scheme reported by the Auditor General.

    2. Before all those sensational headlines for labor after the sensational launch.

  13. How many of you have seen this ALP ad on TV today? It was getting a huge rotation here in Sydney, both on Sky News (national reach) and locally on 9 news here in Sydney. I think it is rather good and very effective. The first time it played today, I missed most of it as there wasn’t any audio words, just beeping noises, so I didn’t look up from the book I was reading until it was almost all done.

  14. Yep seen it heaps Julie – the important thing is it does make you look up. I think it’s better than the Brian C one for the Libs.(forgot his name), but then I can’t objectively analyse these ads.

  15. I was a bit disappointed by 54% but that was with 100% of the lib launch but only 10% of the labor launch, so probably as good as it gets for the libs????

  16. Jeez u guys are quick off the draw. I was wondering – did anyone else like Peter Hartcher’s line on the “deadly intent” of the polling this year….. 🙂 I guess there’s all eyes glued to the 7.30 Report from here on in. Thankfully its not taking the extended Chrissie break the rest of the ABC is…Kerry would never miss this anyway. (Unrelated – will Rove raise the earwax issue? Enquiring minds want to know…)

  17. Glad to see you’re focussing again , fitzig. This poll still within the same territory as every other one for months, given MOE. Geoff Lambert’s analysis is looking pretty good, as well as the Possum’s. Oh my!

  18. GS, yes he will, and you can bet your house Rudd is prepared for that and the question on who he would turn gay for.

    And please let’s not go there!

  19. Wow the smh article actually talks about margin of error instead of trying to pretend the poll shift happened because ……….yadda yadda yadda……………….

  20. #26
    RE the Greens aim to limit temperature increases to 2%
    Mate, I suggest you stop the LOL’ing after today’s reports on the higher than expected rate of global warming and read the policies.
    At least some party is trying to address what is looking pretty bloody dire.
    Or maybe keep on laughing – nothing like denial to keep life sweet.

  21. fitztig, you guys sound O.K., unlike the NLP. Could comprise an example for a definition of dysfunctional. The Auditor General’s report today should help the narrative along of how decrepit and corrupt the NLP have become. More evidence for the example of dysfunction. Nicely timed.

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