ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 16
54 46 47 43
Nov 2
55 45 48 41
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

  1. Crikey at 598

    I hear you. I dont think Boothby should be written off by having a poor candidate. Many electorates still vote Party, not person, and there are plenty of invisible unknown not-so-great performing back-benchers sitting as our reps in Parly House. The state-wide swing to the ALP may be enough to carry it over the line, or give Southcott a wake-up call.

    And like others have mentioned, many people have made up their minds months ago and are tuning out ‘en masse’. Maybe the ABC is getting higher ratings due to the less ads!

    I’ve switched to the Sci-fi channel on Foxtel, (lots of Star Trek re-runs) and Movie Extra’s channel with its nightly fix of Australian AFI Award winners!

  2. The first election I voted in was 1996, the one John Howard won. I’ve never known anything but PM Howard. I’ve never known anything but Federal Labor losses – big losses! I really hope Rudd wins but as you can imagine as I’ve only known Howard as PM all I can see is a Howard victory. I don’t know what I would do if I saw the unlosebale Howard actually lose. Is it really possible? It’s like young Brits seeing Tony Blair win in 1997 after nearly 20 years of Tory rule. It’s just hard to imagine. But I hope Rudd does win, I’m just sceptical after years of being burned.

  3. Given that: the margin on the primary vote is 4%; the preferences will likely favor the party with the lower primary, and the swing needed by Labor is 4.8, which is 52% of the TPP vote, I think we will be in for a close election night with no winner on the night.

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