ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 16
 54 46 47 43
Nov 2
 55 45 48 41
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  1. I am also going to meet Nicole Cornes at a street meeting on Saturday arvo here in Boothby. I would like to meet her personally, see what she is really like away from the relentless media dogs & offer my support and best wishes to her.

  2. Glen @ 453, I half agree with you. I agree that there is much deadweight in both sides of the house (possibly more after this election?). But I disagree with your assertions about landslides. Hawke may have lost a lot of support in 1984, but this was largely due to strategic errors born out of hubris (I hope someone is relaying this to clever Kev).

    Unless you have a dangerous ideologue in power (Howard in 1996, for example), then landslides actually remove the burden of secularism from a government for a period of time. For all his faults, Rudd is definitely not an ideologue (hence the ongoing battle with the unions). I actually think (rising above party politics for a moment) that there is an opportunity for Rudd at this election if he does get a sizeable margin. This is spoken from my true small-l liberal heart.

  3. I reckon there are three things people are missing about Victoria. One is that the country areas swung to Labor ages ago, and the Nationals are particularly weak down here. Another is that climate change is really biting; even people who used to vote Liberal have worked out that building new dams isn’t going to keep their gardens alive. (Remember Victoria, the Garden State?) And the third is that infrastructure problems are reaching crisis point as the population rises.
    When I came to Melbourne in 1980, my partner and I accounted for just over 14 per cent of the net interstate migration for that year (it was 14 people). You couldn’t do anything sociable on Sundays, because everyone was going to their parents’ places for Sunday dinner. Now, almost everyone seems to come from somewhere else. I love it, but it’s certainly not the city I moved to.

  4. 498
    Diogenes

    You ask why, given the coalition’s terrible shambles of a campaign and the tight, punchy ALP campaign, we haven’t seen a significant shift to the ALP in the polls.

    Just from discussions with people at work and friends, it seems to me that many people are sick and tired of this campaign and have completely tuned out. Almost everyone decided which way they’ll be voting a long time ago and just aren’t paying any attention any more.

    It is still possible, however, that as punters receive letters from their banks in the final week, see the complete collapse of the coalition and are soothed by Rudd’s prime-ministerial behaviour, that we will see some small increase in the ALP vote.

  6. Again, why isn’t Krudd appearing on Insiders this Sunday? Is he that scared of scrutiny? Surely he can go on Rove to shore up the idiot yoof vote AND go on Insiders, can’t he? What a slimy little coward.

    You know, as crazy as Latham was, he still had more substance and conviction than the lying fraud posing as the current Leader of the Opposition.

  7. The 2 reports on Tony Abbott’s WorknoChoices blunder, one from the SMH [see#499 for link] and one from the Australian [see #508 for link] appear to me to be identical in wording.
    That’s unusual isn’t it?

  8. [The 2 reports on Tony Abbott’s WorknoChoices blunder, one from the SMH [see#499 for link] and one from the Australian [see #508 for link] appear to me to be identical in wording.
    That’s unusual isn’t it?]

    They’re most likely using the same AAP Wire service feed of the story.

  9. The CFMEU are not the scourge of the earth.

    I deal with comrades from the CFMEU regularly. Without them we would see a lot more workplace deaths in Australia.

  11. Anybody else sick and tired of Sky News’s David Speers constantly asking on Election Agenda – “can the Government come back? The polls are bad but can they come back?” I used to like and respect him but this question is asked everyday and it’s making him sound like a whiney tory who isn’t happy that Labor might possibly win. Plus Sol Lebovic is often asked his opinion on the programme. He always says the same thing – polls are good for Labor but 1 in 4 people make up their mind just before election day and they could swing to the Coalition. The way he says it, it’s like he wants that to happen. I remember his Newspoll analysis when he was in charge of it – he was as bad as Shanahan for pro-Howard spin. I think I’ll stop watching Sky News for now.

  12. 452
    “Glen Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 11:27 pm
    Nath i agree it will swing in Victoria to Labor, but thankfully most of our marginals are held by more than 5% thus Rudd will need a massive massive swing to capture any seats. He’ll be lucky to win any seats in Victoria. Rudd needs seats in NSW, QLD, TAS, SA to win, he’ll be lucky to get Solomon and Stirling and Hasluck and not lose Swan and Cowan IMHO”.

    Glen I would agree with you about Victorian gains being far less likely than in any other place, the swings probably not strong enough in the seats that matter {Corangamite, Latrobe, McMillan, McEwen, Deakin} but I would not write them off.

    Those lamenting ONLY 3 in SA, have another look at Boothby and Sturt, I am tipping 4 in SA. I think Rudd will lose NO seats at this election, none, nada, including WA seats and both Solomon and Hasluck WILL go to Labor along with Bass and Braddon. PS: Those writing off Paterson and/or Robertson, look again.

    Night all, only x more sleeps to end of a Government that I am tired of remembering.

  13. RGee @ 559 I do not doubt that they stand up for the members immediate needs. But what about the actual earth (climate change)? These mega-unions formed under Hawke in the late 80s look after ‘workers’ who earn as much or more than I do as a professional while downtrodden casualised labour goes without representation. What is the difference between the CFMEU and the AMA (apart from dayglo, of course)?

  14. [Again, why isn’t Krudd appearing on Insiders this Sunday? Is he that scared of scrutiny? Surely he can go on Rove to shore up the idiot yoof vote AND go on Insiders, can’t he? What a slimy little coward.]

    I just received a memo from Labor H.Q. Rudd will not appear on Insiders because he wants to piss you off. The more pissed off you are, the happier the Rudd campaign team is.

  15. 561
    Luke Says:
    November 16th, 2007 at 12:19 am
    Anybody else sick and tired of Sky News’s David Speers

    Luke do yourself a favour, BAN Sky’s election channel from your TV: It is almost entirely a Liberal Party spin doctor channel.

  16. Again, why isn’t Krudd appearing on Insiders this Sunday?…………because he is going to church to PRAISE THE LORD FOR TONY ABBOTT!!!!!!!

  18. 235
    Richard Jones Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 10:18 pm
    I don’t know but you can bet the parties have their own hour by hour polling happening in marginal seats. Kevin Rudd is certain to have picked up in the past 24 hours by at least a point and possibly more. His launch was the coup de grace as Alexander Downer would say in a bad accent

    Don’t knock Dolly too much; I believe the French find an English accent spoken by a Girl quite as entrancing as we find a French girl’s accent!

    I agree with your view that Rudd’s launch was “ze knock oot blow” (as Bridgit Bardot might say).

  19. Luke @ 561
    While I find the Speer pretty repugnant any commercial channel that trys to make 24 hour news cannot run the line that it is all over 9 days out – they just have to pretend there is a competition…

  26. While the Auditor-General report today is dramatic, if the media had undertake any serious review of other reports by the A-G this year they would have identified others where discretionary grant programs, a favourite of ths Government have been clear rorts and pork barrelling by Ministers. The difference is there is much more detail in this report.

    The timing I suspect is largely a product of the Government andthe department seekig to delay publication, I think it as scheduled to be released around August. I they allowed it to slip out when APEC was on, would the headlines have been the same.

    I noticed one comment questioning its release one week before the election. Look at it from a different perspective, what would the reaction be if the Auditor-General having finished the report did not release until shortly after th election. How frosty would the new Ministers have been, or if the Government by chance was returned what level of outcry would there have been at its suppression.

    Finally Diogenes concern that the polls havent moved despite all the problems for the Government. I think it reinforces the argument that the Australian public made up their minds quite some time ago. All that is happening is reinforcing existing prejudices o allowing people to rationalise a position already taken. It is myth that decisions are made at the last moment.

  27. Don’t underestimate Victoria’s hatred of Howard.

    His dog whistles have never worked here.

    The wets hate him.

    the only thing that helped him here last time was interest rates and the tollway freeway thru the eastern suburbs.

    Victorians will have cricket bats out for Howard this year.

    Goldstein and maybe even Higgins and Menzies are my surprises.

  29. 545 Diogenes

    Saw that, on Nicole and Mia, with Julia. ABC.

    Other what the papers say. Other than Sturt poll.

    GG. Julie Bishop still constructing. Now a ‘Steering Curriculum’. Panel of experts.
    Newhouse. Absent on campaign trail. Apparently cancelled scheduled Sky am appearance Friday.

    SMH. Asio asking a moderate Muslim sheik to deport himself.

  30. HarryH,

    The other thing is some of us are successionists at heart – f*cking commonwealth was the worst thing to happen to Victoria since before Federation 🙂

  33. Evening all, just caught up on tonight’s comments. Boy you can call post. Nice set of numbers for ACN and the Newpoll. As for Abbott, god is definitely the loose canon, he can be sure to get a back bench position after all the mess he has done this election.

  35. Oh God this is like my Uni-exams I know I’m going to pass (I’ve boned up on all the major subject areas) but Christ almighty I want to get a High Distinction (OK I’m a girly swat mature age student). i.e. I Know labor will win, but gawd it has to be a landslide to convince even the losers the nation was in the mood for a whole paradigm shift (flush the previous 11 years down the toilet of history)
    please please let it be ….

  36. Frank Cal.

    WA. WTPS. Paraphrased.

    WA Premier heading for showdown with Coroner, alcohol/drug related deaths. Coroner seeking access to a report.

    Esperance. Mysterious bird deaths. Some 400 ‘Shearwaters’ (spelling).

    That’s it.

  39. El Nino 575

    It’s still grim up there. Melbourne is alarmingly sunny. I can only hope that this summer the state govt gets up the gumption to ban air conditioning except for the aged and infirm. Cool your immediate surroundings & fry the planet. Sounds like a great idea.

  40. I cannot understand why Gippsland seems off everybody’s radar! The seat is a much better bet than the average Vic swing, because in the last election it was heavily hit by Latham’s forestry debacle, and the local member must have the lowest personal vote of any National in the country. And if you don’t think Mortgages and Workchoice are issues in the Latrobe Valley then you’re wrong.
    I reckon an 8% + swing is right on the cards. Go Jane Rowe.. and go Maxine!

  42. Gippslander 590, I would have thought, that it is a damn good bet.

    Were not the Gippslanders responsible, among others, for ousting Kennett?

    Can’t immediately recall the complete geographical area, but have a reasonable idea.

    Don’t see why they would have changed their attitude.

  43. I lived in the Boothby electorate for ten years, during that time a 26 year old hospital doctor, Andrew Southcott; nice looking – nothing flash – and rather reticent, became our MP (Liberal) in the incoming 1996 Coalition government. From that date, living in a rather lovely Adelaide foothills suburb of Clapham, we never heard from him, or indeed, saw him. To my knowledge the MSM has never questioned him about anything of moment in the eleven years he has been an MP. Since he became a helpmate to one of the Ministers, he very occasionally comes out with a bit of scripted dialogue on the tele or radio, and I have never seen/heard him being questioned on, what are essentially, his lines. Going by old friends who have remained in Boothby, they only know that he is still their MP when a rather bland pamphlet is popped in their letter box by a Coalition helper at election time.

    Yet along comes a slender, pretty woman; blonde, with a fine sense of fashion – who has some celebrity, being the wife of the AFL Crows team’s ex-coach (Graham Cornes), and the step-mother of two Port Power players, oh, and had a column in one of our local rags – to challenge Southgate for his seat, and all hell breaks loose. ABC’s morning radio especially appears to have taken a most unhealthy interest in keeping Southcott’s seat safe for him – for some reason. The way Ms Cornes was interrogated – she would have to have been the Minister to have got her head around the intricacies of the questions – when she first stepped up to the plate was nothing short of hounding – indeed, I commend her courage in remaining in the game. Since then she has been singled out for ridicule as if it is some sort of a blood sport. Everything she does is negatively reported on, even female reporters/newsreaders appear to take some pleasure in pointing out her latest, supposed, transgression, as with yesterday. Southcott? As usual he is the invisible man.

    I do not know this woman, except from what I have read, she has a young daughter and is finishing a law degree. However, friends tell me that she has been door knocking and has regular street corner meetings, with flyers sent round a few days prior to let local residents know where she will be. When they have met her, she appears really likeable and to be very interested in what they have to say, and seems determined to make a good fist of her job should she be elected. To my understanding, Dr. Southgate (though I am sure he is nice enough bloke) has never been this available – he certainly wasn’t when I lived in his electorate.

    I believe Nicole Cornes should be given a fair-go, or don’t we know the meaning of the word anymore?

  48. Well said, Heindoors, at 593.

    Local media has been merciless, towards Nicole. Including ABC local radio.

    And Southcott does so little, and claims credit for all manner of things, in which he has not lifted a finger.

    Not that it has gone unnoticed.

    Nicole Cornes, anything else aside, is a very attractive woman, whose appearance alone would invite the envy of certain in the media.

    She is personable in her own right, as well.

    Now, she does not, definitely, have her head around the policies.

    And for that, she may fail in the endeavour. But mauling Nicole is bad form.

    The reality is that the Labor Party for untold years, failed to commit any resource to my electorate. And, at the last minute, recruit the novice, Nicole.

    Which is disgraceful of the ALP, and is a danger, personally, for Nicole herself.

    Which is a disregard for both the electorate and the candidate.

    Chloe Fox, the now State MP for Bright, stood for Boothby, in times past.

    Didn’t get Boothby, but emerged hugely regarded, result as described.

    Whatever, all those Labor, in my acquaintance, have decided to vote Nicole.

    Despite the initial, and perhaps because of the media.

  49. The LNP’s actual primary vote has always come in a few points lower than the AC Nielsen poll. The ALP primary in the poll has always been close to the actual vote. There being positives for Rudd and negatives for Howard you would not think Labor would do worse than the last three elections as far as the Nielsen polls went. If the same pattern is followed the final primary votes would be something like 47/41 TPP 55.5/44.5

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