ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 16
54 46 47 43
Nov 2
55 45 48 41
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  1. Antony,

    When I plug those figures into your senate calculator (with the others being split primarily between Family First (3%), Democrats (1.5%) and DLP (0.5%)), I get:

    3 Labor Senators
    2 Liberals
    1 Green

  2. On e final thing – the polls haven’t moved diogenes, because 55-45 would be a freakin’ landslide. ie they can’t realistically go higher.

  3. The Newspoll State results suggest to me that sampling error showed up big time in the Vic result for the Oct 26-28 poll and NSW result for either or both Nov 2-4 and 9-11. These show a sudden 5 or 6% drop in Labor 2pp for those two States (now recovered in Vic). Given that we have heard Newspoll are polling roughly equal samples per State and then weighting the result, the last couple of Newspoll national figures most likely have error margins in favour of the Coalition.

  4. There’s the new ad… Abbott on IR.

    So, folks, quiz time: we all know, and agree, that Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman will be the senior serving Liberal Politician in the country if Rudd wins.

    But, of course, as we also know, its actually a ‘presidential ‘ style position – and the ALP controls the Brisbane Council.

    So tell me, anyone: what will be the most prominent Lib majority local govt? Are there any?

    I would have thought so, over Malvern/ Toorak way at least.

    Im keen to know more about exactly how low the coalition will sink!

  5. Newspoll figures – Is Iemma that much on the nose? suggests about 3% less vote in NSW.

    I cannot believe the Victorian figure either 59:41 2PP. Why would JWH be more that much more unpopular there compared to the rest of the country?

    I believe the NERO order will be issued after Galaxy reports

  6. SirEggo

    Sorry I just read the rest of the thread; ignore my comment.

    I have a new theory to explain the State to State differences: macro-economics. The performance of the state economies is not uniform. Sydney has been in the doldrums for the past 3 years, regardless of national GDP figures. Labor is getting big swings in most of the States where the local economy is strong (QLD, Vic, SA) but consequently rising house prices mean interest rates are starting to bite. Others (NSW, Tas) are more stagnant and so the interest rate issue bites less. I can’t explain WA; maybe its a reaction to Beasley’s sacking, or maybe the sheer economic growth means people still feel the govt is doing OK.

    This is just a suggestion; I don’t know for sure. But the basic premise is that its not just communication strategies that explain the State to State differences. Their circumstances are different, and so people respond to the govt. differently.

  7. [So tell me, anyone: what will be the most prominent Lib majority local govt? Are there any? ]

    Here in WA Councils aren’t offically Party Political, but I assume that the most Liberal Leaning would be the City of Nedlands, which includes Bishop’s seat of Curtin

  8. I’ve been thinking for ages that someone should take a closer look at Menzies. Last time Kevin Andrews stood for that seat he was a nobody; in the interim, he’s stuffed up two consecutive portfolios (Workchoices, Haneef, the Sudanese scare). His margin (10.7%) is only just above the Victorian swing, and his appalling behaviour since he got the nod from the rodent should be worth 3% more against him.

    It’s a mixed electorate with a growing non-Anglo population, and I reckon he could be in trouble. He’ll get preferences from Family First, but all the other candidates in that seat will be preferencing Labor, I assume. Certainly Philip Nitschke, who’s standing against him as an independent, won’t be directing preferences his way, and there are a lot of local green issues that will play against him.

    Here’s hoping, anyway. Me, I’m in Maribyrnong, so the best I can hope for is to re-route my vote via the Greens so that Bill Shorten only gets it on the second pass.

  9. 505 BBD- thats right, they don’t do redistributions with thier eyes shut, it is supposed to create close elections.

    Is that true? I though redistributions were only to keep the same number of people in each seat mot to make it closer?

  10. Diogenes:

    With polls averaging 54 or 55%, and all polls being within MOE of 55% (morgan is the exception to the MOE with that 62%’er), i Think its very hard to convince extra people and hold the others.

    As your % support rises, you have more people to keep happy to maintain your support, and those remaining that don’t support you are a lot harder to convince.

    I think a lot of people have stopped taking notice by now too. people seem to have made up their minds and are staying put.

    Guess we’ll see on polling day.

  11. Edward, we’ve never liked your type down here, where the Deakinite tradition of civilised liberalism lingers in the middle-class suburbs. Rudd’s christian earnestness fits the Melbourne middle class very nicely.

  12. Abbott has really annoyed me tonight. Why couldn’t these things have been said before now? I just can’t believe the Tories can sit there for months watching their support base bleeding away and take no action to solve anything. They deserve to be swept away in a massive landslide. Obviously prepared to sacrifice the country for their high risk political games. A ship of fools from top to bottom.

  13. [The state govt in WA is polling at the same rate. Historically you could argue 50/50 is a godd result for ALP in WA federally and yes Beasley did help the WA vote along a bit in the past.]

    Dave,

    I wonder how Sheley & Kev taking their bat and ball and the WA Libs fighting over Fels will affect the WA Vote ?

  14. 508 Swing Lowe – that’s the same story as the SMH. I am told that both paper groups show the AAP feed for breaking stories. What appears or dosen’t appear in the papers tomorrow is another story.

  15. [So tell me, anyone: what will be the most prominent Lib majority local govt? Are there any?]

    The Lord Mayor of Adelaide Michael Harbison is a Liberal but the council itself isn’t exactly pro-Liberal. We don’t really have party representation in local government in S.A. Candidates don’t really campaign on party tickets, even though they may be party members.

    [Is the 51/49 result in Sturt any change from the previous Advertiser poll there?]

    Previous one was 52/48.

    So really both of them are line ball because the margin of error for both polls is around 6%.

  16. 529 Frank

    Hard to tell really. If peole thought CFMEU was a problem in itself. it may help ALP.

    If they believed the LIbs that all unions are like that mob (and i hope voters aren’t that dumb) then it may have hurt.

    WA is pretty polarised by that issue already so I will tip “no change”.

  17. I really dont think that Shelley stuff will affect the WA vote.

    Remember that senior Liberals have been caught up in it as well and that is all over the media as well.

    Wonderfully, the Liberal member caught up is refusing to quity the party and so the Liberals in WA are doing what they do best: implosion

    The West Australian yesterday ran a slew of Pro-Rudd and Anti-Howard articles, possibly a first

  18. God this thread is moving fast. I’ve spent the last hour trying to catch up – finally made it.

    Seajay, regarding your unclean thoughts about a certain female Minister, a very cold shower would probably do the trick. If that doesn’t work I can only suggest chemical castration or amputation.

  19. IMHO – the CFMEU are the scourge of the earth (literally). I hope they are the next biggest losers in this election after the neo-cons.

  20. Andrews is a deadbeat and a poor media performer, one of those alsorand Ministers who won’t achieve much like Wilson Tuckey lol!

    Still what id like is for both major parties to have a clean out of their MPs.

    Go through the lists who has potential who is an up and comer who could be a future leader who has good networking skills and popularity, who has some good fresh ideas. I think we get on both sides 25% of our MPs who have talent and the rest are drop kicks who will achieve nothing and warm the seat until another lawyer or a trade unionist takes it from them. I think it’s fair to say both parties could force the retirement of at least half of their backbenchers who are under performers. We are all on about standards but we don’t have standards for MPs, they don’t have to meet a criteria or prove they can do the job or take on more responsibility or more roles to get to where they are.

    Landslides are never a good thing, look at post 1966 in 1969 the tories almost lost after having a what 30 odd seat majority. After 1975 Fraser got a reduced mandate in 1977 and 1980 and after 1983 Hawke got a much reduced mandate in 1984 in the share of votes.

    I would think if accountability and responsible are required, we need an opposition party to hold at least 65 if not more seats, an opposition of less than 50 MPs is hardly going to be sufficient to hold the government accountable IMHO.

  21. 542

    The betting odds for Nicole will not match the final margin which is why i say she is good value bet- like Maxine in Benelong, ahead in the polls and JWH is likely to not be PM so why is she paying so well?

  22. 542 Crikey
    I’ll repost this from earlier for you.
    More on the celebrity candidates argument, which I agree are very interesting. We are living in a culture obsessed by celebrity. I think with the only thing the Rodent has been able to get traction on being the union scare and Rudd having pissed off the unions, Labor are going to change to more “celebrity candidates”. This makes the voters response to Cornes, Handshin et al crucial for future planning.

    Cornes was stabbed again on ABC News for not answering questions (she was getting into a car). Gillard “stepped in to protect Nicole”. The media here really hate her. Handshin was asked about a dodgy, unfavourable poll and she looked like a star. I think even Pyne has some respect for her. Train those celebrity candidates up before releasing them, weed out the poor media performers and they will win over “union thugs” every time.

  23. I do not believe 59-41 is going to happen in Victoria. Period.

    Perhaps after Galaxy comes out? Evening all!

    Sweet dreams Adam!

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