ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 16
54 46 47 43
Nov 2
55 45 48 41
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  1. Nath i agree it will swing in Victoria to Labor, but thankfully most of our marginals are held by more than 5% thus Rudd will need a massive massive swing to capture any seats. He’ll be lucky to win any seats in Victoria.

    Rudd needs seats in NSW, QLD, TAS, SA to win, he’ll be lucky to get Solomon and Stirling and Hasluck and not lose Swan and Cowan IMHO.

  2. Boy, how worried I was about that last Garrettgaffe. You know, the really bad one that really shifted the momentum of the whole campaign.

    I wasn’t the only ready to start practising noose-knots, if I recall. But in the end, did the LibGnats even use it?

  3. criikey whitey (418): calm down mate, just a little levity, if i offended whatever your personal morality may be I do apologise. I guess my general point would be that all these power dressing taut politicians of both sexes do have a bit of ‘oomph’ about them – if you have ever met some serious politicians in the flesh you will know what i mean, they are potent people, Bob Carr is the most powerful i have ever come across, but i once met Howard and his energy was surprising. None of them are fools or wimps; to achieve at that level you need to be something special.
    Also, Labor or Liberal, they work hard and basically deserve their pay.
    Again, don’t want to be sexist or offensive but lighten up; it’s just a blog.

  4. Here’s a thought before I go to bed

    If you put the national swing mode figures in (54-46), it shows 87-61 ALP

    But the state breakdowns show 99-49 ALP

    Are the Libs sandbagging the wrong electorates?

  5. Thanks, Bludgers, for your responses – I really shouldn’t need comforting at this stage, but all such news is welcome. (Mind you, I haven’t yet seen the Lateline program with Bat Ears. I shall reserve this for my lunchtime, I think…)

  6. Thanks again anthony- i hope you get a dollar every time someone uses the calc- you deserve it.

    Lefty E- I am sorry but Pyne has a primary of almost 50% and unless it drops by 3% he will hold on.

    My three bets for an upset win in this election are

    Canning
    Benelong
    Boothby

    feel free to rub my nose in it if none of them come off.

  7. And don’t get too excited that The Mad Monk’s admissions will have an adverse effect in Warringah – it might even increase his vote! Because that’s the way a lot of the voters here think. Locally in Warringah it is very difficult to judge the impact of SerfChoices – on locals.

  8. Glen,

    On these figures Rudd is going to get a 10% swing in Victoria – so all of the 5% marginals would fall easily (and there’s a few of them there).

    Also, a 5.4% swing in WA means the theory that Labor is going to lose Swan and Cowan goes out of the window IMHO. Maybe they won’t pick up Stirling, but I think Hasluck is locked up now.

    Also worth noting is that Rudd has a 10.1% swing to him in QLD – which explains why he was campaigning in Dawson and Bowman today.

    And yes, RGee, this is referring to the Newspolls that said Labor were up 53/47 and 55/45.

  9. A preliminary scan of the MSM websites suggests that it will be pretty prominent tomorrow. At the moment, Howard’s in denial, saying he hasn’t read the report, but that excuse will only last so long.

    I dare say http://www.anao.gov.au/ isn’t one of JWH’s fave websites and in any event the boradband connection where he is makes the 10 meg zipped file download of the report a three hour process…

  10. Thought so, ShowsOn, 443.

    ShowsOn Sturt and Paterson Polls thread at 86:
    November 15th, 2007 at 6:33 pm

    [There’s a rumour that a new Advertiser Poll is about to be released & apparently shows Mia within 2 points of winning the seat.]

    Any news?

  11. 132
    Bob from Bonner Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 9:26 pm
    Queensland is still leading the way for its favourite son.

    The exposure of rorting Regional Grant Scheme funds to favour Coalition seats all over the country by the Aud. Gen. will be front page news tomorrow in both print. radio and TV media breakfast shows.

    I think it will do more damage to the ‘trust’ and ‘credibility’ issue for the Coalition at a time when then have zero momentum and the polls are bouncing on track for a 55/45 election result

    Their ‘firewall’ in QLD has cracks appearing all over the place, as Bob From Bonner, Possum and other QLD contributors have ‘picked up’ on the streets of Brisvegas as I have done haranging Labor freinds around the traps.

    Add Rudd’s very strong performance yesterday in Brisvegas at his campaign “launch” which dominated today, and tomorrows media tossing up over whether to feature the Regional Grants Scheme Rort or Abbotts confirmation that WorkChoices is less than equitable for the workers side of the IR ledger and very little attention to Howards health policy [yeah he announced one today] and all of a sudden

    (A) We are into the last weekend before the election,
    (B) A 55-45 margin on 2PP has stuck;
    (C) People are rolling into the weekend papers with Rudd looking shiny and new and Howard looking vague and over it, and
    (D) The Liberal Party lamentations and blood=letting will dominate the last week before the election, and
    (E) All of a sudden the GG will visit the road to Damascus and get behind Rudd as the more responsible ‘economist’ {it began today} after months of doing their dardest to discredit Rudd on Howards trump card, economic growth and security.

    Given these probable media grab messages to the electorate in the last week, I am very confident of a Labor victory at this election: the question is by how much ?

  12. SirEggo

    I don’t think it is a pork allocation error. Liberals are still polling well in WA, inflating their overall voting percentage. But they already hold their seats in WA by big margins, so they don’t gain anything out of it. Whereas if Labor is looking at a big swing in their favour in SA and QLD, where there are a lot of close marginals, it will deliver them a return out of proportion of the overall swing.

  13. Swing Lowe, was Labor ever likely to win Cowper, Macarthur or Greenway?
    I’m puzzled about Hughes. It should be a Labor seat, but they keep reelecting that nutbag Dana Vaille, for some strange reason.
    Most likely N.S.W gains for Rudd:
    Macquarie
    Parramatta
    Lindsay
    Eden Monaro
    Dobell
    Page

    I don’t believe the betting odds for Robertson, unless they know of some private polling I haven’t seen

  14. Rudd’s great launch and the following coverage, immediately followed by Howard’s pork barreling of grants controversy also with prime coverage, is going to give the general impression of a dying dog down. AND Abbott has just added to it.

    Like Bolt said on Howard’s Aboriginal recognition in the constitution – this is really ‘look away sad’ for Howard. People are just going to not want to vote Howard because it will be embarassing; just take the body away please, its not nice to look at. He looks down, he looks out, he looks a loser and it is all just to damn messy.

    Rudd just needs to act Prime Ministerial and not over do it these next fews days and I reckon he could pick up a whole heap more votes.

  15. [How about the VIC primary vote at 50 – up from 45 a few weeks ago. Are they getting over the grief of Bracks’ sudden departure??]

    Well it went 46 – 52 – 50.

    So Rather than ~100,000 people changing their vote back and forth in such a short time, perhaps this suggests they are really at 48 or 49 in Victoria, which happens to be the national primary.

  16. HH,

    Labor did replace their original candidate in Cowper because they believed the seat had suddenly become winnable – it still is (I think), but Labor will probably place most of their resources in NSW next week in Eden-Monaro, Page and the Central Coast (Robertson and Dobell).

    Hughes will probably come back to Labor if:

    1. Dana Vale resigns or retires
    2. Steve Waugh (who lives in the seat) runs as the ALP candidate.

    However, anyone who takes on Dana in Hughes (including Steve Waugh) is sure to lose…

  17. Poss, if you’re still around – just pumped the State swings into the excel calculator, received 93 seats to Labor (assumed national swing for Tas/NT).

  18. SirEggo, thanks!
    I guess one point is that the Libs do have quite a lot of seats on fine margins in NSW and SA, where the swing might be (say) 5-6%, and then they have a lot in Qld in the “fairly safe” range, where the swing’s looking more like 10%.
    In other words, if these figures are to be believed, Labor’s getting the swings in the right places.
    Not sure if pork allocation is the issue. The two Nambour High boys are probably a big selling point up north, I’m guessing.

  19. 280
    red wombat Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 10:35 pm
    Abbott best protection for workers….”get a new job”…….coming to an ad near you!

    Yes Wombat, that will be all over the TV to counter the Anti-Union ‘strike me here, strike me there, strike me, strike me, everywhere [oh you naughty boy] ads which is ALL the Coalition are running with up here in QLD at the minute.

  20. #192 Big Blind Dave

    In that same 7:30 Report, MegaGeorge mentioned that the GG tomorrow will have the aggregated and state-by-state polling. Again absolutely no joy for the coalition.

    In case you missed that sensational political edition, Peter Hartcher (SMH) mentioned the ACN 54-46 result (also released tomorrow) PLUS some focus research from (believe it or not) Roy Morgan on the advertising. Apparently the study was on the impact of the scare advertising. According to Hartcher it showed that the ACTU stuff was changing votes. The Union Bosses stuff merely seemed to reinforce the rusted-on votes on both sides of the equation.

    I have to go by train to Melbourne and back tomorrow (from Warrnambool – 3 hours by train). So for once the dead tree editions of The Age and the GG may help to fill in the time.

    Ben, I think you’re wrong on Channel 9. I’ve seen it the last few nights here in country Vic. True, the political campaign is well down the list of topics. About 4th on my count. But I think that reflects the newsworthiness. Ben Cousins and the Police Integrity Enquiry still dominate, and even local murder or crime may rate higher. But Nine at most is unaligned. Laurie Oakes at APEC labelled Howard’s meeting Bush as, “The Dead Duck greets The Lame Duck”. In general there is some scepticism of Howard, as shown in the fight over The Worm. The Packer days are already gone.

    On that score, I think Marktwain has a point. The media are not entirely governed by prejudice or political favours (GG perhaps excepted). Sure, they got it wrong about Howard’s invincibility. An error as much due to laziness, the search for simplistic solutions, and a lack of curiosity. As Matt Price said about the Rudd-Labor comeback, “We never saw it coming.”

  21. 472 HH

    Don’t discount Bennelong. I really think theres a huge chance of that going, especially the more likely it seems Rudd wil win. The average punter despises another round of compulsory voting.

  22. 487 Don

    Thanks Don- I also have info on that poll about the contarsting IR messages, aparently there is high recognition that the ALp is influenced by unions but the number of people that thought that was a bad thing was lowere than the Lib primary vote in percentage terms.

  23. [BB Dave. I just cant stand Pyne, so said it for fun.]

    Yeah, it is like he is Downer’s love child.

    [Antony
    Great info]

    Even on these House of Reps figures, isn’t 3 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green the most likely result in Victoria?

  24. Can I introduce a circumspect moment into this? Rudd won the debate, had the best launch, had an interest rate rise, Abbott and Turnbull stuffed up, the Rodent looks like a rotting carcass, the Libs have given almost no good performances and the only campaign slip for Labor has been Garrett. So a valid question is WHY ARE THE POLLS THE SAME AS AT THE START OF THE CAMPAIGN? Are we too biased (God forbid) and the above is not true (dont think so)? Why havent we gone further ahead?

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