ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 16
54 46 47 43
Nov 2
55 45 48 41
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  1. How about ‘Howard is reeling in Labor huge poll lead at a rate of knots after his superb campaign launch on Monday. The PM’s carefully targetted and responsible spending promises are reasonating with large swathes of prior to umcommitted voters. Another 26 weeks of this and the Coalition are right back in the ball game(sorry)

  2. I would think Shanahnnananan is too busy filling in the Centrelink forms for Jobsearch to have time to comment on any polls right now.
    And right beside him will be Windschuttle and Albrectson…
    now that I can laugh about.

  3. [showson @ 35

    Less than the swing they got in the last week of last election.]

    How do you know that?

    According to Newspoll there was a 2% swing to Howard in the last TWO weeks of the campaign.

    Or possibly there wasn’t a swing at all, and that it was just bad polling.

    Most people thought Howard would win in 2004 remember, so many were skeptical of the polls at the start showing Labor leading.

  4. Barbara (37)

    I confidently predict that this will be the last time in your life – whatever age you are – that you will be disappointed with a 2pp of 54% for the ALP one week out from an election.

    I guess we’ve all just been a bit spoilt with the fabulous poll figures we have had all year.

  5. There is a saying that democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. The Rodent believes in this philosophy which has, after all, served him well for 11 years. In our system, the wolves are the swinging voters in marginal seats. The Ratking’s launch was aimed at greedy wolves in the marginals who add up the “what’s in this for me” and don’t care about the effect it will have on the lambs in the economy. Rudd has eschewed this philosophy in his launch, to a large extent.

  6. Re 47,

    charles Says:

    November 15th, 2007 at 8:16 pm
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22764435-5014075,00.html

    Ms Gillard is a class act.

    So is Bob Hawke ๐Ÿ™‚ – “Former prime minister Bob Hawke says he hopes for the good of the country that Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd smashes the landslide winning record Mr Hawke set in the 1983 election.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/hawke-hopes-for-rudd-landslide/2007/11/15/1194766862682.html

  7. This is very close to be the last 24-48 hours if the polls are right to get some really good prices. IF 1.30 labour win is right, there are seats around 4 to 6 percents that are a lock and show very good odds. Way better than bank interest Just work your way up from the most endangered.

  8. Just to try and stay on topic for about 5 nanoseconds, do any of the professional psephy’s think that this poll adds or detracts from, for example., Geoff Lambert’s analysis? For an amateur, like me, it just looks like so much more of the same, it’s hard to know.

  9. 56
    charles Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
    The GG reporters have stopped blogging, I guess they will soon stop reporting.

    ..and stop inventing stuff too, i hope

  10. forget about the auditor generals report meaning anything. if i was Labor i wouldn’t even mention it. Labor is trying to win Coalition seats and this report, disgraceful though it is, only points out to the folk in these electorates that Howie is their friend.

    looks like this 54 is about the watermark. any minute advantage Libs will get by Rudds lack of pork at the launch (pork always works) will be made up by the wash thru of the rates rise when the bank letters arrive.

    same old same old.

  11. #
    58
    Darn Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 8:24 pm

    Barbara (37)

    I confidently predict that this will be the last time in your life – whatever age you are – that you will be disappointed with a 2pp of 54% for the ALP one week out from an election.

    I guess weโ€™ve all just been a bit spoilt with the fabulous poll figures we have had all year.

    I know that in my brain. But I am a worrier. This process is entertaining and stressful in equal measures.

  12. =IF(D3>0,-C3+D3,IF(D3<0,D3,-C3+natwing))

    Guys, for fun:

    if we take the 16 most marginal seats for the Libs in order and make a HUGE assumption that the Lib’s firewalling exercise has created ZERO swing in the 7 least marginal, i.e.:

    Dobell (NSW), Deakin (VIC), McMillan (VIC), Corangamite (VIC), Boothby (SA), Blair (QLD), La Trobe (VIC)

    Keeping them at their current swing.

    Then let’s take the next 9 most marginal seats and say that here they keep their swing at 1% less than what they currently have (so Herbert which is on 1.4% would become 0.4%, so a Lib retain). Thus the firewalling allows only a 1% swing away from the current figure. The seats are:

    Herbert (QLD), Kalgoorlie (WA), Paterson (NSW), McEwen (VIC), Cowper (NSW), Longman (QLD), Sturt (SA), Robertson (NSW), Petrie (QLD)

    So all the above seats are RETAINED by the Libs.

    At the current 7% swing on the most recent 2PP poll, this would still mean 78 seats to Labor, due to the larger swings statistically required in the remaining seats to absorb the swing away from the trend.

    Interesting, isn’t it ๐Ÿ˜‰

  13. Pork works, but only when it is not revealed as pork.

    It’s the old “I’ll pretend it’s ok if you do”. But when the govt gets found out, the public get indignant very quickly about how “their tax dollars” have been spent.

  14. Just seen a new ad – “Wall to Wall Labor will ‘stuff our economy’. Only Liberals like Gary Nairn will stand up for small business.”

    No mention of Howard, perhaps he isn’t like one of those Liberals….

  15. Grog,

    at least you’re getting Minister Nairn.

    down in Melbourne we’re being told old Stewie Macarthur is the only person who can stop crime and keep the economy going.

  16. This poll shows that John Howard’s genius plan is still going strong.

    Stage 1. Spend three years running a morally bankrupt Government to make the ALP complacent.

    Stage 2: Run the worst Liberal campaign in recent history. Again lulling the ALP into false confidence.

    Stage 3: ?!?!?!?!?

    Stage 4: Victory!

  17. Its probably of no interest to any lefties contributing tonight, but this AC Neilson was conducted after the 25bp rate rise by the reserve bank.

    Kevin Rein is winning by a healthy lead, but individual rate rises haven’t changed the voting position in his favour

  18. This is off topic but I don’t know where else to go with it?

    In regard to the Auditor generals report released today that shows the Government pork barrelling.

    How does Howard and co expect to get away with this.

    Once upon a time Ministers heads would roll for less.

    This is corruption! Misuse of public money.

    Are there legal ramifications?

  19. Given every newspaper in the country this morning labelled Rudd and the ALP as the most economically prudent party, these ads are trying to sell last year’s message.

    Just as all the ads in the world won’t make Tickle Me Elmos the most popular present this Christmas, the Libs should work out that what they’re selling is out of date.

  20. Mr Squiggle… you’re probably right. I’ve always imagined interest rate rises will have a negligible effect since most people still think they’d be the same or higher under Labor. Most people can’t be bothered getting into nit-picky arguments about what Howard said in ’04.

    However… there’s a possibility receiving letters from the bank may influence people more. I doubt it.

  21. With reference to Charles 67

    Why doesn’t Labor use the “It’s time” jingle? If the is a perfect election to use it, it’s this one. Bloody catchy too.

    Surely the thoughts of Gough wouldn’t be too prevelent?

    Would they?

    Please bear in mind I was born 5 years after the dismissal. I probably sound like I don’t know what I’m talking about LOL

  22. 76 Mr. Squiggle,

    Only because they haven’t received their letters in the mail yet from their banks. They will continue to deny it until it hits them square between the eyes 36 hours prior to the opening of the polls ๐Ÿ˜‰ …. Remember the stages of grief that other PB’s have posted in the last few weeks? Denial is one of those stages ๐Ÿ˜‰ … when the swing is on, it is ON and these folks will wag the tail for Rudd quite strongly when the election day gets here ๐Ÿ™‚

  23. Grog 83

    Point taken, but they could modernise it a bit, change the words

    Maybe get Powderfinger or Silverchair to sing it

    That would be a sight!

    ๐Ÿ™‚

    OK, now I’m talking crap LOL …….

  24. Grog,

    Yes I know that, what I mean to suggest is that the argument over Howard’s pledge over rate rises was locked in before the Melbourne cup increase

    Basically, this decision on this issue can be put to bed by psephs, it will only be other issues that change the vote from here on in

  25. I think you’re right Squiggle. (sorry didn’t mean to come on all lefty before!).

    The newscycle is so damn fast now that a $250m aged care pledge will be lucky to get a mention on the inside pages of tomorrow’s papers.

  26. It’s time we brought back the 3 R’s in…………………………..employment

    Respect, remuneration and rights!

    We are home and hosed and hubris (the 3 h’s)

  27. Grog!!!

    Dont tell me someone pledged $250m on aged care and I missed it

    Which side…..

    Seriously…., I missed it, please let me know, which side pledged a quarter of bill on aged care?

    You are right, I have absolutely no faith that I woudl read about it in the papers

    this election really is a turning point

  28. On the interest rate impact, Possum’s rather compelling chart showing the ALP primary tracking interest rate rises shows a three newspoll lag between rate rise and a boost in the primary. Three polls since the rate rise would be… one, two, um… the election, actually. So maybe the effect is yet to come, and in the fog of war we’ll never know anyway.

  29. Snapper at 62,

    Not being a fan of straight lines myself, but none-the-less thinking that Mr Lambert and his work rocks, a 54-46 dont make any difference worth noticing at all….. at this stage.

    Mr Squiggle – I noticed the same… quite interesting. Maybe it really is true that election campaigns don’t compress the voter reaction time to rate rises, and it’s still all about getting the letters from the bank in the post.

    Gippsy at 9 – The pressure, the pressure!

    Anyone have a witty headline for an ACN post? :mrgreen:

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