ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 16
54 46 47 43
Nov 2
55 45 48 41
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  1. 78 – oldtimer

    have you forgotten ros kelly’s whiteboard?
    in that regard, there is no gain for labor in the seat based pork barrelling

    Someone else above was right whent hey said i might even play to their advantage in those seats. why vote out a govrnment which is giving you an unfair advantage?

  2. Michael, the RMArk Riley, on the Seven news mentioned the whiteboard – said “that concerned $30m, this on the other hand is $110m”. It was a very damning comparison.

  3. Mr Squiggle,

    Not sure about rates not been an ongoing effect. The previous rate rise occoured on 8th August – the majors poll all hit peaks abouts 4 weeks later (who can forget the 59/41 newspoll on the 9th of Sept that nearly did away with the rodent).

    In the heat of an election campain the time delay will be less but I think the rate rise will be the gift that keeps on giving right up to election day.

    Us tragics process new infomation within hours the great unwashed out there take a lot more time.

  4. jen, the average educated voter ain’t neccessarily who decides elections, these days. The systematic stacking of critical national institutions, such as the ABC and the High Court; the systematic move to user pays as a principle for organising society; the systematic politicisation of the public service, defence and AFP, I could go on, but would probably bore you to tears or only be speaking to someone who thought similiarly. That sentence went on way too long. I suppose I feel quite quite emotional about this election, as I believe that if Labor lose and the LNP win that there will be an even more apalling ‘dog eat dog’ society emerge.

  5. Howard has been suffering from increasing negative imagery for three years. With AWB, WorkChoices, Interest rate rises and a poor launch, the final week swinging voters would be feeling less reason than normal to go with Howard.

    AND coupled with the positive images of Rudd along with his good launch and the neutralising of the economic debate you would think Rudd will get more than usual share of the swinging voter this election.

    They say that the swinging voter normally breaks in favour of the trend anyway – well it just might give Rudd a little extra boost on 24/11

    I suspect Labor will go close to 55/45 on the 24/11.

  6. Jen 54 – as much as we would like to see Albrechtsen and Windschuttle gone from the ABC, Rudd will leave them there for the duration of their appointments. What Rudd might do is set up an independent panel to select ABC board members in the future so we hope we’ll get rid of political stooges once and for all.

  7. But Prime Minister John Howard says he has not seen the report.

    “I think the Regional Partnership scheme has brought a lot of benefits to a lot of people in many parts of Australia,” he said. “Like me, for one.”

  8. 103 – but it’s about ethics – a pox on both their houses that they use taxpayers’ money in such a partisan way, whatever the amount.

    Having said that, my point was really that i am not sure it will work to the government’s disadvantage. I am not sure whether these residents of marginal seats vote against someone because they feel that the person has given their seat an unfair advantage over the rest of the country. I’d like to think I was wrong.

  9. Alex Mcdonnel

    Aunty should not serve any political party and it’s independence should never again be compromised!

    Trolls everywhere on the sphere.

  10. And in interesting symbolism.

    A friend has spent all day today, baking, to feed the students, for the visit on Friday 16/11, as described in article, schools and parishes in the narrowing Sturt electorate, (SA Pyne/Mia).

    Whilst the electorate is diverse, it contains many Catholics, and a strong Italian base. And as the article suggest, the occasional other. No Hillsongs, as far as I am aware. Whatever works, I say. Even Howard’s horses promise is sunk.

    ‘Youth carry cross of peace. Article from: The Advertiser Ben Way November 09, 2007 01:15am

    HUNDREDS of students flocked to Port Adelaide yesterday to welcome a giant cross symbolising the world’s largest Catholic youth event.

    For the past 21 years, the 3.8m-high, 40kg World Youth Day cross has travelled the world, carrying the Catholic Church’s message of peace, reconciliation and hope.

    The cross and the Icon of Our Lady painting were taken from Ardrossan across Gulf St Vincent to Port Adelaide aboard a police boat.

    A group representing the 413 indigenous Catholic school students in SA then carried the symbols to Kaurna land before an evening welcoming ceremony in Black Diamond Square at Port Adelaide.

    Thousands of people are expected to join the pilgrimage across almost 400 Australian communities before it ends in Sydney next July, for the 23rd World Youth Day. The event will be held in conjunction with Pope Benedict XVI’s first visit to Australia.

    Today, the symbols will visit Al-Khalil Mosque at Woodville about 9.40am and St Margaret Mary’s Church at Croydon Park.

    They will then be taken to Bonython Park for a youth festival involving students from 19 Catholic schools across Adelaide before a visit to the steps of Parliament House’.

  11. yep Michale, both examples are a disgrace, but I think it will be a big – journos love stories like this. (though a “big story” means a one day wonder in today’s world)

    It was on The Oz’s website before any other today, so I bet it’ll be their front page tomorrow.

  12. I’m sure this is an old story. I remember something very similar popping up earlier this year? Honestly, I don’t think this story will do the Libs any favours… but I think it’ll most likely act to solidify Labor’s primary rather than add to it.

  13. On one of the news tonight they showed the results of some of the pork from that report…….$1 million for a vacant paddock…..another had a building that looked nothing like the original mock up: looked like it was built by the dodgey brothers.

  14. Grog – I agree. i was pleasantly surprised to see its prominance on the Oz website. Good on them. On some issues (AWB, Aborigines), for all its faults, the Oz has been quite good over the last 3 years… I said *some* issues. Overall, it’s been a disgrace.

  15. Poss, if you could point me to some texts would be good. I’ve got to admit stats is not my strong point unless I can see some point in actually doing the work. Do a fair amount of evalualtion both qualitative and quantitative.

  16. If the ALP don’t do something soon, they’re gonna be facing Bob Baldwin as the next Liberal leader.. (be afraid.. be VERY afraid)…

  17. I suspect others here may disagree, but I think the latest round of union advertisements are quite effective & may have some impact.

    How much, I couldn’t say, but I suspect these ads may be wearing down some people (it’s certainly caused some doubt over Labor with friends of mine).

    I think the ALP should run another series of positive ads for contrastt – one would be seen as clearly positive, the negative ads from the Liberals hopelessly out of touch.

    However, when the Liberals get clear air like they’ve had the last couple of days, the anti-union message may sink in further.

  18. Good move by Rudd.

    [Labor leader Kevin Rudd has promised $15 million to help companies set up next generation ethanol pilot plants.

    Mr Rudd says the money will be provided in grants to help make next generation ethanol commercially viable in five to 10 years.

    The Opposition Leader travelled to a cane farm outside of Mackay in Queensland to make the announcement.

    He says one of the benefits of next generation ethanol is that it will not drive up food costs, because it does not replace the production of sugar crops.

    “So if this works and we can actually get these pilot projects to fire, what we’re having for our sugar farmers in the future is a continued revenue stream from the sugar crop itself,” he said.

    “But also from the cane waste and crop waste in general a further income source which comes from the production of second generation ethanol.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/15/2092268.htm?section=justin

  19. 120 – agree – I hope to god that Wentworth is not the decider because Newouse is completely hopeless. Sadly he is the candidate for my seat so I am forced to vote for him, or at least preference him, so as not to preference the Howard government.

  20. Shock result!. Polls reveal utter lack of change in public opinion of Howard government. Still regard him and Costello as shifty con job! The long predicted “narrowing” is now thought to be likely to be delayed until approximately 5.30 PM on November 24, after which it will come in with such a rush that all will be swept before it.

    The RAAF are also expected to perform a complex fly-past on that day, in which several squadrons of pigs are expected to take to the air accompanied by Brendan Nelson’s new “SuperHornets” (if the wings haven’t already been pulled off the latter by passing schoolchildren or manufacturers of decent aeroplanes).

    Australian citizens are warned, however, that in the course of the practices leading up to the 24th Nov various strange “pies” may appear in the sky.

    Independent observers suggest that these avian cochon (even when vouched for by Freaky Downer) are almost certain to really be “Porkies”, and should , as far as possible, be ignored if you know what is good for you!

  21. Scaper – 112 It would be nice to see Labor sacking the Liberal stooges in all agencies but they won’t. The danger is that when the government changes again, the other mob will do the same. Not good for the country. In the same vein, Rudd will not set up any Royal Commissions to investigate actions of the Howard government (children o’board, AWB etc) – there’s an unwritten rule not to do that because it can come back to haunt later. Pity, I’d love to see Dolly go to jail for perjury!

  22. Queensland is still leading the way for its favourite son,the list of seats falling prey to the Lib/Nat vote freefall is amazing!!!
    The word is Dawson is now in danger,along with Leichardt,Petrie,Ryan,Bowman,Flynn and Blair
    Keep an eye on Fisher as well.
    This is fast becoming a repeat of the Beattie landslides!!!

  23. Harry my friend –
    I too feel emotional about this election. Which is why I am nailing my colours to the mast and putting my name on a HTV card.
    It is time that the culture ” Mr and Mrs Plasma TV who Hates Everyone that doesn’t Look Like We Do” that has defined Australian politics for the past decade is about to end .
    We are better than them.

  24. Piping shrike – which one is that? the ding buzzz one?

    Back to the polls, this was from Keating back in May 06 on the 7:30 Report:

    PAUL KEATING, FORMER PRIME MINISTER: Well, the only time that we have been above 39 per cent, Bob scored 39 per cent primaries in 1990, Bob Hawke. I got 44.98 per cent in ’93. That was 45 per cent. Since then we’ve been 38 per cent or 39 per cent or 37 per cent. Um, Kim I think got to 40 per cent in 1998. You can essentially say Labor’s vote today is 38 per cent. The coalition has a structural vote of 43 per cent. So there’s 5 percentage points primary votes that Labor is behind the game without any distribution of preferences and you simply cannot win from 38.

    KERRY O’BRIEN: Why are they in that position?

    PAUL KEATING: Yes , going back to the old base. Bob Hawke and I created a new constituency for Labor. Young and those people on middle incomes and those self-employed and smaller businesses. Essentially I think they have returned to the Coalition. And I think if we don’t get them back, if you cannot – in the last election campaign when I was speaking to Mark Latham I said to him, “If you can’t start the last week with 42 per cent in the slot, you’re finished. You can’t win from 38s and 37s.” He got 37.8. So it’s about trying to bring those people back.

  25. Rod at 129
    I heard recently that the Indonesians are buying Mig 31’s.Faster with a bigger payload,heard the same???
    Another Howard stuffup actually,he did the deal for the Superhornets over lunch with Bush.We’re sold another lemon,over beef and burgundy!!!!

  26. Adam @ 104,

    I doubt it’s going to be the biggest story of the day in Sydney (at least in the Daily Terror).

    Why? Because of Willie Mason going to the Roosters.

    Easily the biggest story of the day up here in Sin City…

  27. 54-46 is OK.

    But the most interesting part of this election will not be so much the result, which will surprise many, but the post election analysis of the campaign and where and why it was won.

  28. Swing Lowe 113 Says: And Petrie on Portlandbet is Lib $1.80/ Lab $1.95

    My mid September Portland Bet records show Petrie as then:

    Coalition $1.42 Labor $2.70

  29. Not convinced PC (134). The annoying and the smart arse bit are not the problem, it is the Rudd tinkle thing that is not quite right. I also think there must be care taken in being anti-Howard. There is only one thing they should be saying about him, he is going to retire. I thought the “sorry Mr Howard” ones were much better.

  30. Just on the RPP – I dont see how places like Gunnedah will view millions on a biofuel plant- which has never materialised will view this ANAO report thing favourably. I dont expect they will have seen a penny of that money.

  31. The fact that both John Howard and Kevin Rudd are campaigning in Liberal seats with margins of 10% says it all. Queensland is where it is all at. That’s obviously why both launched there. It may well be a bloodbath in Queensland for the Coalition. Queenslanders are very parochial. Imagine having both the Prime Minister and Treasurer from that state. That’ll make Queenslanders extremely proud. Of course they will vote for their own. “Give our Kev a go”.
    Kevin Rudd may only need to win another half a dozen seats elsewhere to win the election and he would do that in a canter.
    Today’s headlines all over Australia also speak volumes. Couldn’t be better for Kevin Rudd. He was indeed looking prime ministerial on the stage.
    The headline on the Sydney Morning Herald editorial this morning “Move over Grandpa….” was truly devastating.
    All the momentum is with Kevin Rudd and none with the retiree. That is reflected in the way the media treated the launches. They gave much better coverage to Kevin Rudd.
    The old me-tooism is gone and no longer needed. He has broken away from the pack and is a length and a half ahead.
    John Howard should have gained several points with his massive bribes but didn’t.
    The next poll will be post Kevin Rudd’s launch and post favourable coverage.
    Most likely 55-45 or conceivably 56-44. The primaries are what count.
    The real guessing game is how many seats can Kevin Rudd win in Queensland?
    8, 10, 12? What’s the betting that he and his key players will saturate all Liberal held seats in Queensland for the last week. John Howard will need to spend half his time up there. In the meantime the people of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania will feel neglected.
    It would take a miracle for John Howard to win from here so all his friends in the Exclusive Brethren and other extremist cults had better start their prayer sessions.

  32. This poll does not cover the swing after Labor official campaign on Wednesday.
    I believe the betting markets reflect the whole / true story promptly.

    After Howard officially launched his campaign on Monday, there was a small swing toward Coalition.
    However, after the Labor launching campaign on Wednesday, the swing is back to Labor big time, virtually undone any gain that Howard has
    See for yourselves here. 13 betting agencies’ records during this period:

    last week -> after Lib camp. -> after Lab camp.(now)
    Lassseters: 1.35 / 3.2 -> 1.33 / 3.3 -> 1.27 / 3.75
    CentreBet: 1.36 / 3.15 -> 1.35 / 3.20 -> 1.31 / 3.5
    PortlandBet: 1.33 / 3.3 -> 1.32 / 3.4 -> 1.33 / 3.3
    SportingBet: 1.32 / 3.3 -> 1.35 / 3.2 -> 1.32 / 3.35
    BetFair: 1.35 / 3.7 -> 1.35 / 3.7 -> 1.34 / 3.9
    SportsBet: 1.35 / 3.25 -> 1.32 / 3.35 -> 1.33 / 3.35
    SportAcumen: 1.30 / 3.5 -> 1.31 / 3.4 -> 1.30 / 3.5
    IASBet: 1.30 / 3.5 -> 1.35 / 3.35 -> 1.32 / 3.55
    BetStar: -> 1.34 / 3.3 -> 1.34 / 3.3
    GlobalSportsBet: -> 1.31 / 3.4 -> 1.30 / 3.5
    RacingOdds: -> 1.36 / 3.15 -> 1.34 / 3.2
    BetChoice: -> 1.32 / 3.4 -> 1.31 / 3.5
    CanBet: -> 1.35 / 3.35 -> 1.32 / 3.55

    Notes: BetFair’s offers fluctuate frequently even during a day.

  33. I hear the ACN poll is probably a 1 point drop in ALP primary and a slightly higher increase in Liberal primary.

    Also The West has a 400 person state wide poll tomorrow showing ALP would win Sterling and Hasluck. Slight swing back to government but still a swing to Labor on ’04 result.

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