ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

Nov 16
54 46 47 43
Nov 2
55 45 48 41
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  1. Didn’t you doubters read this at Possum, with his latest graph?

    ‘The Narrowing is surging strongly, placing the Coalition within reach of victory on or about the 28th July 2008’.

  2. Dolly on SkyNews:

    i can’t quite work it out.

    is this man an embarassment to the country?


    is he the country’s greatest comedian?


    is he on the piss?

  3. Thanks, Poss, I suspect regression, I have a better understanding of basic probabilities. Just point me in the direction/s you think would be useful, and I could even get excited about this. Cheezuz, it sounds really interesting!

  4. @152 No he’s just a naughty boy.

    Cancel that last statement he is as Keating said of him: “the idiot son of the aristocracy” .

  5. It would be good if people here emailed as TV, Radio and Newspapers and demand that the Pork scandal be given the coverage it deserves.

    Channel 9, in particular (as opposed to 7), seems to be particularly biased this election. The smallest Labor “gaffes” are given top billing, while a major scandal is 4th or 5th story.

  6. Re 138,

    Swing Lowe Says:

    November 15th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
    Adam @ 104,

    I doubt it’s going to be the biggest story of the day in Sydney (at least in the Daily Terror).

    Why? Because of Willie Mason going to the Roosters.

    Easily the biggest story of the day up here in Sin City…

    Maybe now the Sydney sports media will give Cousins a rest since they will be chasing Willie for a few days ….. 🙂

  7. Harry H:
    as I said on an earlier thread –
    Alexander is our very own Borat.
    And I will leave the image of the Hotel Room Scene to our viewers…

  8. I am being forced to have commercial TV on, so I can catch some of the polly ads, of the more disgusting type.

    It occurs to me to wonder if someone here has recorded the ads, over time?

    Would add to William’s collectibles.

  9. Downer on Sky News Agenda: I think he is crystal clear in his own mind that they have lost big time – and the fury and frustration is crystal clear too in all his bluster, which is turbo-charged from even his usual bluster.

    Something changed in the last 24 hours. You can feel it in the air. The breathtaking Labor launch. Howard bumbling on, forgetting which day it is, vowing bizarrely that he is “not here to attack computers” since they are “joyous” additions to our lives, the Auditor General’s report… the realisation that it is essentially just a week to go..

    Mark down Thursday, Nov 15 as the day the Labor win got locked in.

  10. Ben that’s a bit harsh – Laurie Oakes pretty much annointed Rudd this morning on Today (though Karl Stef kept trying to say, yes but isn’t Howard just as good etc etc?).

    Plus nine did the Libs no favours with the worm.
    And the nine news buried the Libs launch.

  11. i was polled this afternoon– third time for this election, i dont know who they are though, i was asked if i recognised the names of the three main candidates for Wakefield, ie Champion {labor} Fawcett {liberal} i didnt recognise the green one, then i was asked about what i thought of the different policies and why, then i was given several different phrases and asked what party i would put them to, one was — who would i say was better for IR, another was what party would put more money in my pocket, etc,etc.
    the final questions were who was getting my first preferences and how likely was it i might change my mind.
    i’m a contented bunny tonight, ive done my bit for Rudd today.

  12. Grog, it would be a break from tradition for the SMH to endorse the Labor Party.
    The editorial on Friday week may well be equivocal. They may say that Kevin Rudd has run a good campaign but it would be better to stick with the tried and true. They are true blue Liberals at heart. They may allow some of their reporters to run a bit wild but when it comes down to the editorial the day before…but then who knows they may have finally seen the light on the hill.

  13. Re 154,

    Grog Says:

    November 15th, 2007 at 9:42 pm
    Jeez Richard, I didn’t see that editorial today:

    That is as brutal as it gets.

    Don’t tell me the SMH may endorse the ALP???

    I haven’t been through a Federal Election before (became a citizen Australia Day this year 2007). When do we see the various newspaper endorsements? Will it be in Friday’s edition next week or will it be Saturday morning, Election day? Thanks 🙂

  14. Newhouse has pulled out of the Wentworth debate tonight and a tv presentation tomorrow morning for “personal reasons”.

    Assuming he hasn’t done it because of the nomination/ resignation issue, are there any issues with his health that are in the public domain? Seems odd that, even if he’s under the pump, he wouldn’t front up.

  15. Just saw the story on Stirling & Cowan on the 7.30 report – are those libs dills for banking on Hoons ? Especially with the Anti-Hoon laws here in WA which caught the son of a local Liberal Shadow Minister as well.

  16. Just watching Dolly on election agenda and OMFG he is imploding…..chucking a tanty big enough to even enough to annoy Speers. Absolutely bagging the media for not doing its job. That’ll sure help turn around the polls by next Saturday!

    As it’s taken after the Labor launch and the pork revelations: Newspoll prediction —> 56:44 TPP

  17. I am a bit disappointed with 54/46. Obviously people are concerned that:
    – Gillard is going to be the godmother of the unions mafia.
    – Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with winnie the pooh.
    – A 60s mindset PM is ideal for the 21st century.
    – We will stop licking Dubya’s rear end.

    C’mon people, get serious! Anything over 37% of the primary vote for the dessicated one is embarrasing for the nation.

  18. Just to settle the nerves I was trying to construct a scenario where the ALP gets less than 15 seats. The most reasonable I can come up with is

    Vic, NT, WA, ACT no gains
    Tas 2 seats
    SA – 3 seats
    NSW – 4 seats
    QLD – 5 seats

    Gain of 14 seats. Each individual state outcome is possible but rock bottom of expectations.

    Provided the ALP don’t fall in a ditch, objectively, I don’t think its possible but I’ll still fret until Anthony gives us this first graphic of an ALP majority

  19. Harry hon,
    Don’t worry:Can’t happen. we are on the record supporting Rudd as PM. We just want a balance in the senate to keep the little pet on track just in case it all goes to his head.

  20. Richard Jones – I am more confident of an ALP win, than an SMH endorsement!

    And Flash – there is one man I want to see having to deal with a Liberal loss next Saturday night, and that is Downer.

  21. Centre, it may be the highest poll for the Coalition till election day. It was just after the Liberal launch. Really, if the Coalition can’t do better than this with all the publicity and promises of their launch, then they are truly doomed.
    The blow out in the betting confirms that.

  22. Possum’s ennui issue concerning yet another 54/46 poll result:

    Eight is enough?
    Howard’s trackies dacked?
    Rudd scudds Elmer Fudd?

    (Now I know why they never made me a sub-editor.)

  23. [Grog (155) I would imagine all of the Fairfaxes and most of the Murdochs will back Rudd.]

    Why do you think so? I think they will be all over the place. I asked David Penberthy of the Telegraph, and he said he doesn’t think it will make much difference who is in power.

    That could be construed as support for Rudd because he would be low risk, or a re-endorsement of Howard because Rudd hasn’t given a reason for change.

  24. Harry H – Downer is the best reason I know for outlawing political dynasties in Australia. Seems to be on a par with Caligula from the Caesar dynasty in ancient Rome. God knows what they make of him overseas.

  25. The SMH usually put their election day editorial on the front page. I’m tipping they will back a change of government this year, possibly climbing over the dead body of Ron Walker to do so.

  26. The polls will only change once people see how little Rudd had to offer the people of Australia and how he lacked a clear vision for the future of this country, the next polls should show the tories picking up more ground to 52-48.

  27. I am willing to put good money on the Murdoch papers endorsing Rudd. They really went for his reverse wedge on the Rodent by spending a lot less in the launch. They also want to back the winner. They also want to keep in good with the next Govt for financial reasons eg media ownership laws and political advertising.

  28. Piping at 142 – that ad would have been tested from ars*hole to breakfast time in front of focus groups, and would have been found to work for the demographic its meant for – which doesn’t actually contain any of us here at BillBowes pad.

    It’s meant to get a wry smile at Rudd followed by a short snort of derision at Howard in it’s target audience.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if it disappears in a few days, after it’s done its job for ex-coalition voting upper blue/lower white income workers and (which cracks me up a bit) relatively wealthy small L libs voters – look at the framing of the ad next time you see it, and pay close attention to the lengths of the sound.

    It’s pretty well constructed as far as targeted agitprop goes.

    I agree BTW – sh*ts me tears as well… Bzzzzzzzzzzz Ding!

    But I bet it will work.

  29. Crispy – the SMH declared last time (2004) that they would no longer recommend who to vote for… my recollection is that it was a bit of sanctimonious crap, and it will be interesting to see whether it survives 1 election

  30. [The polls will only change once people see how little Rudd had to offer the people of Australia and how he lacked a clear vision for the future of this country, the next polls should show the tories picking up more ground to 52-48.]

    What’s Howard’s vision exactly?

    Go For Grow(ing) interest rates?

    Go For Grow(ing) inflation?

    The economy is going great, and it is all because of me.

    The economy could go bad, and I have nothing to do with it.

    Howard is selling a half a dozen mixed messages which is why he is losing this campaign.

  31. Adam,

    I hope you’re right, but Newspoll has been counter-intuitive a lot lately, and all over the place. the last thing I need is a scare in the last week fo the campaign.

  32. I haven’t seen the Coalition ad but really if it is the sole issue they can win on then they haven’t got much. They’ve been stripped of all their clothes.
    Did you note the research where focus groups reacted positively to the Labor ads but were neutral to the Coalition ads. The Labor ads had the potential to change votes but the Coalition ads sent voters back to their own corners.

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