ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 16
 54 46 47 43
Nov 2
 55 45 48 41
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

Comments Page 5 of 13
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  1. Well, well, well Newhouse is doing Malcolm alot of favours in Wentworth 🙂
    Malcolm should be able to sleep easy id say from here, Newhouse has turned out to be a drop kick candidate by the looks of things.

    Labor’s Newhouse pulls out of debate
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22766216-12377,00.html

    “BELEAGUERED ALP candidate for the New South Wales seat of Wentworth, George Newhouse, has dodged a candidates’ debate in the electorate, pulling out at the last minute for ‘personal reasons'”

    “More than 200 people crammed into the St Matthias Anglican church in Paddington tonight to hear a debate between nine of the candidates from the federal electorate, including sitting MP Malcolm Turnbull.”

  2. Glen – once people see how he lacked a clear vision?

    So in the future the public will see something about what he didn’t have in the past??

  3. [I hope you’re right, but Newspoll has been counter-intuitive a lot lately, and all over the place. the last thing I need is a scare in the last week fo the campaign.]

    Would it be bad if the Newspoll on election day said 52/48?

    If it says 56/44 I’d worry that Labor would lose a heap of votes because people don’t want a landslide.

    If the last Newspoll is 52/48 some voters will go to Labor to sure up the victory.

    We often have have close polls in vote terms, but not seat terms.

  4. If it Ain’t Broke Don’t Fix It

    That is what the coalition should be saying constantly in the last week.
    If they don’t, they will get thumped.

  5. 197 Well remembered, Michael. They sat on the fence, but they did do it on the front page. Perhaps they will do so again, but they must sense their core readership is camped in Rudd’s paddock this time and might opt to fall that way too.

    I’d bet money they won’t back Howard.

  6. Bill Weller-
    I am also a bit concerned about the union thug ads. It might appeal to the swingers. But then again, it is soooo Yesterday. Hopefully labour has predicted they would do this (seeing as it has been the Libs only strategy apart from bribery) and will blitz them with images of kids in coal mines and women fighting for the vote.. that’s as current as the Govt’s camapign, and as sophisticated as their target audience.

  9. Grog Rudd is a teaser. He promises the world and a revolution but copies government initiatives and presents hardly anything new of any value.

    Rudd was a serious tease at the campaign launch committing himself to nothing really.

    I’d say the next few polls will be interesting to watch.

  13. on 7.30 report Hartcher basically said those “anti-union ads” only preaches to converted i.e. diehard liberal voters agree with them, everybody else don’t care…

  15. I have been enjoying the blogs on this site for the past several weeks, wqondering why i felt so much at home here. It was only yesterday, after wiping the tears from my eyes after watching Rudd finally show his true labor colours, that i realised why.

    The vast majority of people blogging here are just like me; hoping, wishing and now starting to believe that this country has come to its senses and is finally, after 11 and 1/2 long years, going to rid the country of this most divisive vermin.

    But the way most of you express this almost-desperate desire is the important part of why I have enjoyed reading, and sometimes participating, in these discussions. Not one of you left-leaning or Howard-hating Labor supporters (and yes, even those of you voting for the Greens in the senate) have expressed your desire to see anything more than this country of ours, and its people, benefit.

    None of you have put yourselves first in discussions, not worried about your own position, but rather how this country will be better off with a change of government. It is rare these days to find so many selfless and considerate people together in one place, all reminding each other that a true Labor or left-leaning person places a higher value on the well-being of our country, or our community as a whole, than we do on ourselves.

    To William for setting up and running this site i say thank you. But for all those people out there contributing to these blogs, a special note of thanks to each of you for making it clear that people, many people, still care about the things in life that matter.

    And thanks to people like Glen also, for reminding us each and every day that, despite him and his creed, it DOES matter.

    Sorry if i have taken too much of your reading/b;ogging time with that message, but felt I had to let you know.

    My prediction of 106 seats to Labor is not looking out of the question now, is it LTEP?

  17. Snapper – any text book that contains the words Introductory and Econometrics will do the trick. There’s about a million of them around. It will encompass the time series approach and a few other bits and pieces that can be plugged into it.Just look for something that has good verbal descriptions of the mathematical processes.

    The current bible of this would probably be Walter Enders “Applied Econometric Time Series”, but that’s probably a Masters/PhD level, but damn good once you can speak a de lingo!

  20. 206- The libs have hammered the anti-union stuff since the campaign began and it has not helped one little bit. In fact the union movement can legitimately claim overwhelming public support for their role in society when ALP wins the election.

  21. The betting market position at this exact moment is:

    – Betfair ALP 1.34 / LIB 3.90

    – Sportingbet ALP 1.32 / LIB 3.35

    – Centrebet ALP 1.31 / LIB 3.50

    – IAS ALP 1.32 / 3.55

    Sportingbet continue to keep LIB relatively safe and IAS continue to offer overs.

  23. Well Glen as a true fighter of course you will wait until you see those final polls, but I wouldn’t get your hopes up too much. Be prepared for the worst. The vote on the day is likely to be around 53-47.

  25. 198 Show’s on
    {Howard is selling a half a dozen mixed messages which is why he is losing this campaign.}

    When he couldn’t sell half a dozen eggs at the moment.

  26. Its really jacks me off the jacinta collins will be back in the senate. she is the absolute definition of ‘hack’ and time server. I cannot recall a single useful contribution she made during her first time around. And lets not forget those idiots on the right who worked out the prference deals in 2004 that gave us Fielding. When o when will a saviour rise and throw the remnants of the DLP out of the Shoppies once and for? Guess I may as well wait for hell to freeze over or for john howard to tell the truth.

  27. Bill Weller – are you expecting a few Greens TV advertisements here in Australia? Haven’t seen any minor party advertisements other than Family Fraud.

  29. Flash at 162 said “Something changed in the last 24 hours. You can feel it in the air.”

    I agree.

    And on both sides. It must have been the tracking polls after the ALP campaign launch.

    You could notice it from Howards demeanor today, as well as Rudds Cheshire Cat grin.

    Must have been nasty – might have explained the movement in the betting market earlier today as well, because I dont think the 54/46 ACN would have done that.

  31. “Bill Weller – are you expecting a few Greens TV advertisements here in Australia? Haven’t seen any minor party advertisements other than Family Fraud.”

    Well, I’d hope there’d be some in Australia!

    I meant South Australia!

  32. Listen, there’s TWELVE days to go, ANYTHING can happen. Egg selling being one of them.

    He could even use the word “sorry” in the context of an apology.

    … OK that’s doubtful, but I predict egg selling by next Tuesday.

  33. #214 Glen, someone with access to Pollbludger archives might want to recycle some of your `If the polls haven`t turned around by (insert month of choice/ poll of choice) it`s all over.` or `Just wait until (insert moment of historic proportions sure to boost Libs` vote)` posts. I seriously doubt whether anyone could be bothered, though.

    All over bar the shouting, parties, drinking, dancing in the streets.Enjoy.

  34. The latest anti-labor ads are just feral. I mean straight out ‘union thugs eat babies’ kind of stuff.

    I know I’m probably rusted on, but it just makes me think…. ‘sore losers!’

  35. I don’t know but you can bet the parties have their own hour by hour polling happening in marginal seats. Kevin Rudd is certain to have picked up in the past 24 hours by at least a point and possibly more. His launch was the coup de grace as Alexander Downer would say in a bad accent.

  37. Glen – I know how I felt in ’96, and I wouldn’t wish that on anyone, not even a Liberal voter, so be prepared 🙂

    God, even I am starting to get confident… which of course only makes me nervous…

    Maybe, just maybe, we will have, in a little over a week, a government that actually wants to make the country a better place – maybe progress will seem inevitable again… which it did under all previous governments, whatever their creed, until Howard.

    It’d certainly save me the expense (and the relationship hassles) of moving overseas.

  38. Lieber Oberleutnant Glen!
    Greetings from Garmisch-Partenkirchen, where I am having a nice time after being taken prisoner by the Amis. Sorry I cannot come to relieve you there in the Bunker, but I decided that Die Alte Ratte and Der Huhnmann were not worth the lives of any more of my troops. I suggest you get out while you can.
    Mit deutschen Grüßen
    Walther Wenck (ex-General)

  40. [The latest anti-labor ads are just feral. I mean straight out ‘union thugs eat babies’ kind of stuff.

    I know I’m probably rusted on, but it just makes me think…. ’sore losers!’]

    It makes me think they are suring up their base, and have given up on swinging any voters.

    Or to put this another way, I’ve got a lot of friends who are completely pissed because of WorkChoices who haven’t the faintest idea what unions are, or what they do.

    You don’t have to be a rabid union hater to think it’s time for the government to go.

  42. On Centrebet:
    ALP to win – $1.31
    Australia to beat Sri Lanka – $1.42

    That says it all I think. (and btw mostly fine days forecast for Hobart for the next 5 days)

  43. [The latest anti-labor ads are just feral. I mean straight out ‘union thugs eat babies’ kind of stuff.]

    And the resignation of Mr & Mrs Kevin Reynolds from the WA ALP has kyboshed any hope of the Libs using those ads in WA, unlike the failure of WA Upper House Lib Anthony Fels refusing to fall on his sword and the bickering between Paul Omodei and his former leader Matt Birney.

  46. 234

    Questions to all about Lib ads

    A) would the libs waste money on local candidate specific ads if the weren’t concerned about the seat or hopeful for the seat?

    B) why are we now seeing ads for canning in the WA TV?

    C0 Would the Libs waste money on anti-union ads, even if they knew it wouldn’t convert voters, but needed to show thier financial backers they will do all they can to damage the reputation of unions into the future. Since the election is lost anyway?

  47. Richard Jones you are right only a fool would be expecting a certain Coalition victory come the 24th, after suffering from terrible polling since late last year one has to expect the worst and Rudd for probably 6 or more years.

    It will hurt you more if Howie scraps back in because i have grown pessimistic at this late stage, so ill be blown away if Howie holds on and if we lose ill be disappointed by i won’t be crushed (unless it is a 95 seat landslide of course).

  48. Adam, go to your WordPress dashboard and Edit that page (or alternatively click the Edit This on the actual page itself). When you get to the edit post page, highlight the link you have and cut it out, then highlight the words you want linked and click the link button in above the edit window where you page text is displayed (it’s the little chain looking button) – then paste your linke into that, then click insert and save.

    Ta Da – one link fixed up and looking spiffy. I also bold my links (highlight and the B button) as sometimes it’s hard to see the links on some browsers.

  50. For all his faults, we have to respect that at least Glen still shows up here even when the going gets tough!

    Can’t say as much for Steven Kaye and Nostro, who much like ‘the narrowing’, vanished back into thin air.

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