ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 16
 54 46 47 43
Nov 2
 55 45 48 41
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

Comments Page 6 of 13
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  2. [Howard is all over the place like a “mad womans sh#t”……this last week isn’t going to be pretty.]

    We had a sneak preview of it today “12 days to go…” “I’m Howard” (not Iemma)

    When he can’t give a simple answer to a completely innocuous question you can tell he is done.

    Off topic: Is there anything more addictive than watching items sell on ebay?

  3. 203 ShowsON, I have never in my life come across someone who has changed his/her vote because they didn’t want a landslide.

    If there is a landslide on the cards, people get on and ride it.

  4. Lionel-
    I love what you say –
    People really do care about the decline of decency in this country. The one thing I have enjoyed about campaigning is the constant surprise I feel when people who are not usually engaged with politics tell me why they are ready to vote against Howard (and that can be Labor, Greens, Dems, whatever..)

  5. I can see the cartoon now. Howard and rudd in front of egg stalls selling identical eggs and the people fighting off each other to buy Rudds, Howards stall empty holding up half a dozen shouting okay they come with pork, money anyone???

  6. After the election is over, whoever wins, won’t change the fact that we are all Australians and can be friends no matter what our political persuasion. We all have to work together for the good of this country. I have good friends and family who are die-hard John Howard supporters and have good friends and family who can’t wait for him to go. I don’t treat my Howard supporter friends any differently from my Green and Labor friends. We are one big family with our differences.

  8. From David Rubie at LP.

    [We should probably be requesting a thread for the election night drinking game. Nambour mentions are a good start Leinad.

    “Working Families” – take a shot.
    “It’s not over yet” – take a shot.
    “What’s your take, Antony?” – take a shot.
    “McKew has taken Bennelong” – chug a whole beer, then NUDIE RUN!!!!!! GO MAXINE!

    Comment by David Rubie — November 15, 2007 @ 10:08 pm ]

    http://larvatusprodeo.wordpress.com/2007/11/15/the-boy-from-a-town-called-nambour/#comment-1381

  10. [203 ShowsON, I have never in my life come across someone who has changed his/her vote because they didn’t want a landslide.

    If there is a landslide on the cards, people get on and ride it.]

    Well I hope that happens, we are ONE rogue away from a blood bath.

  11. Saw two pro obesity ads, one for kids, Kerry Anne K, the other Woolies.

    One on Union Thugs. So scared!

    Changed back two Lateline and 2.

  12. Sol Lebovic’s remarks tonight were very illuminating i thought.

    He said that it will be history making in the extreme for a Government to lose an election while being 14 points ahead as the better economic manager.

    well….the Coalition aren’t just going to be beaten, they are going to be thrashed.

    so

    what does this say about the rest of the performance?

    this is the greatest rejection of a government/Pm’s ideology in our history.

  14. Saw Julie Bishop at Tullamarine airport this arvo; she looked very distracted but surprisingly attractive, is this a very sick and unpleasant fantasy?
    Having spent 2 days in Melbourne i can confirm taxi driver poll was 4-0 for Labor.
    I am sticking to 53:47 labor win but why am i still thinking in an inappropriate way about Julie Bishop, the fine patina of sweat on her brow as she rushed through the airport masses in her pristine white linen suit, please help now.

  15. Paterson voters – You should just do what you can to help. Paterson might be closer than the press are trying to make out – despite the tv saturation.

  16. Possum, thanks but that doesn’t work. The link works, but all the code is still visible. How do I get the visible url to disappear so that only the words “damning report” are visible.

  19. 262- I have to agree

    Australians have always been about more than a strong economy. How that wealth is shared is much more important.

    If the elction had anything to do with economic management the libs would be 20 points ahead regardless of how they have squandered the benefits.

  20. Cancel that last statement he is as Keating said of him: “the idiot son of the aristocracy” .

    PK actually called Lexy the “idiot son of the establishment” which is spot one but a little harsh on the real, old money Adelaide establishment, the Bonythons etc. I suspect most of them are most embarrassed at Lexy being considered one of them. OTOH, the johnny come lately used car dealer millionaire types probably hang on every word of his sooky, dummy spit rants.

    Lexy was sent off to a UK boarding school at a young age, make of that what you will. Unkind folk like me might think even his own family wasn’t keen to have him around.

  22. ESJ If you’re out there. More on the celebrity candidates argument, which I agree are very interesting. We are living in a culture obsessed by celebrity. I think with the only thing the Rodent has been able to get traction on being the union scare and Rudd having pissed off the unions, Labor are going to change to more “celebrity candidates”. This makes the voters response to Cornes, Handshin et al crucial for future planning.

    Cornes was stabbed again on ABC News for not answering questions (she was getting into a car). Gillard “stepped in to protect Nicole”. The media here really hate her. Handshin was asked about a dodgy, unfavourable poll and she looked like a star. I think even Pyne has some respect for her. Train those celebrity candidates up before releasing them, weed out the poor media performers and they will win over “union thugs” every time.

  23. Grants report a blow for Coalition:

    “Prime Minister John Howard’s re-election chances have been dealt a blow by a damning report which finds the regional grants program has been used for pork-barrelling in coalition electorates”

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/071114/2/14xb0.html

    This scandal is really taking off, obviously some public servants have deliberlately released this in the last week of the election.

  24. To General Wenck

    Not to worry General Wenck as Von Greim and Reitsch have offered me a position aboard their Fieseler Fi 156. Just in case worse comes to worse and the ivans close in on us we can make a speedy getaway.

    There i’d thought you like that have a laugh at my expense lol!

    Look one can feel confident about ones position being ahead atm, but the election is not a forgone conclusion, only a fool would believe the result has been decided.

  26. Thanks Jen (254),

    And I get really pissed when my next door neighbour comes over for a glass of red on the back patio and, when asked who she’s going to vote for says, probably Howard because of the economy.

    When asked what he’s done for the economy, she can’t answer with any details whatsoever!! Just blindly repeating what she hears on commercial TV or reads on the first few pages of the Murdoch press.

    And she’s a public servant, working in Canberra!! Amazing!

    great example of why Politics 101 should be taught in high school!

  28. Glen, I won’t be hurt if John Howard scrapes back in. I will accept it immediately and get on with my life but I have to say that for the good of the country I hope we have a change. I think we need to push the “refresh” button. We really do need to get serious about doing something about global warming and I don’t think John Howard has taken the issue seriously. I also think his WorkChoices discriminate dreadfully against lower paid workers.
    ShowsOn, yes there is one more addictive thing – watching fast moving shares on Comsec – especially ones you own or are about to buy or sell.

  29. For all the Labor nervous nellies and Glen spouting off his usual, ill informed pro Howard crap: tomorrow’s newspoll state by state survey shows very little change, according to George Meglogenis tonight on 7.30 Report.
    In other words, the ALP is still well ahead in N.S.W, QLD and SA, ahead in VIC, and narrowly behind the Liberals in WA.
    Rudd campaigning in Bowman and Dawson today, hardly marginal seats
    QLD is looking like a disaster for the Libs.

  32. Sorry for theat last post – for those not watching LL – Abbott has been taped last Tuesday admitting workers conditions have been stripped.

  35. [ShowsOn, yes there is one more addictive thing – watching fast moving shares on Comsec – especially ones you own or are about to buy or sell.]

    Yeah I wish my auctions (selling) were shares – they’ve nearly doubled today.

  39. In essence it is steady as she goes.

    I think, however, the next Newspoll will be 57-43 to Labor (maybe 56-44).

    Either way, within little more than a week Kevin Rudd will be the new Prime Minister of Australia.

    But let’s not celebrate just yet, the final buzzer hasn’t sounded yet, the game is still on and it demands full concentration and effort.

  40. [Sorry for theat last post – for those not watching LL – Abbott has been taped last Tuesday admitting workers conditions have been stripped.]

    I hope Labor turn this into an advert.

  43. Grog Says: “Sorry for theat last post – for those not watching LL – Abbott has been taped last Tuesday admitting workers conditions have been stripped.”

    Grog, it’s an absolute classic, isn’t it? Just terrible stuff from the ‘bott

  48. Seajay for her age Bishop scrubs up better than most female MPs in Parliament that fact is undeniable.

    The fact is the world won’t cave in if either side is put into government well at least it shouldn’t so long as the civil service is run by Sir Humphrey Appleby lol! One just has to hope that if the side we don’t want in gets in that they don’t stuff things up royally. I don’t think its fair to say Howard doesn’t care about what happens to Australians or the future, he like Rudd only wants the best for our country. What separates them is that they have different ways of going about this.

    I can tell you one thing, winning in 2004 when i thought we could lose i was gracious in victory with my ALP mates, for i knew that could have been me one has to remember that your own side can’t win all the time, hopefully they’ll go easy on me should Howie loses. One can at least hope, but i doubt ill receive much sympathy from the Labor bloggers but one can expect only so much empathy.

  50. I’m in WA. You guys watching Late Line over east have just convinced me to watch, tape, burn to DVD and letterbox my suburb with the episode- setting up for it now, thanks for the warning

    By the way I live in the biggest and most swinging booth in Hasluck

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