ACNielsen: 54-46

From comments comes the news that ABC television has reported on an ACNielsen poll to be published tomorrow, showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. Most of the survey was apparently conducted after the Coalition launch on Tuesday and before Labor’s launch yesterday. More to follow.

UPDATE: Sketchy Sydney Morning Herald report here.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures now available: Coalition up two points to 43 per cent, Labor down one to 47 per cent. The former figure offers a slight glimmer for the Coalition, being its highest primary vote in ACNielsen this year.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 16
 54 46 47 43
Nov 2
 55 45 48 41
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

605 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

Comments Page 8 of 13
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  1. Dyno @ 342,

    Whilst Garrett may have made just one slip-up (and I think he made 2 – the other was to do with Labor entering into a post-Kyoto protocol without developing nations signing up), it was pretty major – major enough to warrant a Liberal ad.

    Turnbull hasn’t had a great campaign, but both he and Garrett participated in the best debate of this campaign (in terms of substance), so they should both pick up brownie points for that.

  4. Crikey Whitey,

    Nicole’s at Mandilla Reserve, Daveys Rd, Flagstaff Hill at 10am and at the reserve on the corner of Ridgeway Drive and Templar Ct, Flagstaff Hill.
    Go easy on her!

  5. I was sitting at home in Melbourne stewing on the fact that I have seen zero ALP ads and three Liberal ads. All that was blown away with the Channel 10 news that basically said Liberals caught wroughting the system. They ran it as a promo for the news as well. Then turned on Lateline to see Tony Abbott admitting that conditions have been stripped away and if you don’t like it go and get another job.
    There is a god!

  7. I know this is parochial and shameful, but i am really bored with this Lateline interview about Pakistan.
    i just want more Oz politics.
    Thank God for you lot.

  8. Speaking of Dollface…does anyone remember seeing that (4 Corners?) special where a TV crew went over to UK and tracked down Lexy’s old teacher?

    They go up to this old Mr Chips type and say: “So what do you think of the fact your old student Lexy is now Australia’s opposition leader? Did you think he was destined for greatness when you were his teacher?” And Mr Chips says, in this nice English way: Alex Downer? Oh god no, he was incredibly mediocre. Choice.

  9. 312 Kirribilli Nice work mate… though you’ve now buggered up my own version of the same, only half written. Great minds blah blah.

    I’ll have to switch to ‘Clancy’ for my election eve ode…

  10. Sir Eggo – I was about 13, or 14 when “Its time” was around – was an amazing time, and the song words still in my memory. But also I remember that “Its Time” song ad was included in the Top 25 Australian ads of all time..LOL, up there with the “Vegemite Song”!!

    I always felt like it should have ended with a huge chorus of “Its the Dawning of the Age of Aquarius”…ahahaha… was very hippy-trippy, sign of the times-they-are-a-changin…. and it obviously worked!

    But, like others, I am far more emotional about the outcome of this election than I have been in more than 25, maybe 30 years – for too long “Mr & Mrs Plasma TV fascist neo-nazi thugs” have held the rest of us by the short & curlies. I hate the ‘dog-eat-dog’ country we have become.

    I live in a safe Labor seat too, (There are a few left, rare as they have seemed to have become) in a safe Labor city – Canberra – so don’t even see any of the ads you lot keep talking about, we are basically in “blackout” every election, wouldn’t know one was on – other than getting a fair bit of Bob Brown and the Greens lately(because the ACT Senate seat is one of the key Senate seats needed to re-balance the balance of power) — and in 2004 we had to vote twice two Saturdays apart, as the federal election coincided with the exact same campaign timing as the ACT govt election which overshadowed the federal one!

    Some ACT licence plates sport the motto ” Heart of the Nation”. After the 2004 Latham disaster, many ACT cars with this one, had stickers on their plates saying various things like ” … of the Nation – With no heart”.
    or ” .. and the legs, arms would not follow their heart!”

    BUT — I’m also a pessimist, been on the losing side for far too long, living in a city which has never lost the faith with Labor (though it came close a couple of times!) and mourns every election….

    I keep thinking…they can’t get 16, its just too many seats to hope for *sob* *sob* *sniff* – there are just too freaking many Mr & Mrs Plasma TVs crying poor because they can’t pay their kids private school fees, AND handle their McMansion debt on which they continue to over-extend on.

    You know something? Whichever way it falls – I hope the whole damn lot lose their houses, or they drop in market price so much they are worth peanuts – I’m so pissed off at getting the govt *they* vote for, and being double-taxed to pay their way.

  11. Left E – He admitted that WorkChoices has stripped industrial relations protections and then goes on to say that the best protection you can have is to get a new job.

  12. Lefty E @ 350,

    Abbott said that he accepted that “conditions” had been reduced under Workchoices and that the powers of the IRC had been reduced as well, but that the best way to solve these sorts of problems was for the worker to get a new job, rather than go to a court or commission.

  16. SL and Grog,
    You’re right, Garrett did make two.
    Turnbull’s campaign probably hasn’t been that brilliant, but if he manages to hold Wentworth he’ll enter some kind of perverse Liberal folklore as their version of King Canute. Even with all the help from George and Danielle.

  20. I was sorting through my ephemera folders yesterday and came across my copy of the Fin Review’s street poster for March 2, 1983. It reads: BELIEVE IT THIS TIME and then in large letters below: FRASER IN DEEP TROUBLE.

    I think the equivalent versions come Friday/Saturday a week away will be even sweeter. Reserve your copies now.

  22. Possum, firstly I’ve already done that and it doesn’t work, and secondly it makes no sense anyway. The Word Press FAQ clearly says it should be done with the formula this page, as on any website page. That’s what I did but it doesn’t work. If I did it the way you suggest, how would I connect the url to the words I want to be visible? I’m finding this very annoying.

  23. Mr Green’s computer said that the last state breakdown for Newspoll would result in a 97-51 win.

    Since the last breakdown, we have had the Newspoll go up by two points to Labor.

    This should mean that Labor, on the calculator according to Newspoll Labor may be in line for 100+ seats

    Plus the great headlines from the Policy launch

    Plus this pork barrelling report today

    With Eight Days (plus nine hours) to go.

    From a Labor point of view, can someone tell me why I am still worried?

  26. One of the glorious features of the denouement to this campaign has been the complete meltdown of Tony Abbott, who has probably even surpassed the rodent as the goverment’s primary liability: gaffe after gaffe. I had originally hoped he might be swept aside in a Labour landslide, but it now seems likely that he will be re-elected. However, his suffering might be even more acute. Indeed, one of the joys resulting from his incompetence will be the scorn he will enjoy from his political partners in opposition for the complete goose he has made of himself. A political death if ever there was one!

  27. He looked pretty serious & frank. Must have thought he was talking to the converted.

    Best performer in the campaign: The guy who filmed Abbott.

    Oh joy Oh bliss.

    This blog is better than sex.

  28. Garrett was loose early on but i think he demolished Turnbull in the debate, notice how the Libs have been very quiet about him since. Have the Libs won any debate? Maybe Hockey should debate Abbott; hard to pick the winner there. I suggest you put a few bob on Mike Bailey in North Sydney for a value bet.
    Now fully over Julie Bishop fetish, now must not think of Joanna Gash during my weekend at Hyams Beach.

  30. Don’t you think that there is a chance that Turnbull will be hurt by the whole legal challenge aspect? Smacks of trickiness and bad loser syndrome and people might vote against the Libs for this point alone (if they were only sticking to Turnbull because of him being a moderate).

  31. 341
    Possum #341 I hope the embryonic cloning breakthrough announced today doesn’t mean that Steve Irwin, his recently awarded adjunct professorship in biology, our great leader Elmer Fudd and white shoes have a hope in hell of longer than this decade.

    Than again, you never know in Queensland …

  34. As for Abbott, I do think he’s correct to say that the best protection against Workchoices is to get a new job. And after November 24, he’ll be living proof of this. It’s certainly buggered up his career.

  35. SirEggo,
    You have no reason to be worried.
    Some people just won’t take yes for an answer!
    On average we can probably expect our Federal government to change sides roughly once a decade – it’s a rare event. Labor people would be well advised to make the most of the next 2-3 weeks.

  37. Rusted On @ 379,

    Actually, I spotted Ruddock on the news a couple of days ago discussing the Haneef appeal.

    But other than that, he’s nowhere to be seen…

  38. Charles at 56 says: “The GG reporters have stopped blogging, I guess they will soon stop reporting.”

    Reporting, eh. Is that what they do? I thought that mob were just the propaganda arm of the Liberal Party. Calling them reporters is being unkind to journalists.

    One week to go with Neilsen where its been all year. Blind Freddie can see what’s coming.

  39. 371- Howards Concessions Speach

    I know I have spent the last six weeks making it absolutley clear the ALP will be union dominated and the ALP have not even tried to deny it. But after losing in a land slide tonite I want to make one thing perfectly clear- IT DOES NOT MEAN PEOPLE SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UNIONS IN OUR SOCIETY.

    Well actually John, it really really will mean that- so get over it and piss off.

  45. Grog,

    He can’t use “It was said off-the-record” excuse for the simple reason that he was talking at a campaign event in Warringah (I believe).

    Of course, he’s likely to take exception to the fact that it was secretly taped, but the Liberals have done the same thing in regards to union meetings…

  47. I think at this point, polls and partisan commentary aside, I believe any genuinely neutral arbiter would have to agree: the coalition just doesnt deserve to win this election.

    And au contraire, various above: you’d have to be a fool to believe Howard still had anything but a very marginal chance.

  48. [Best performer in the campaign The guy who filmed Abbott( and the same person tony first thought was his long lost son)]

    I’d put in a vote for the charter pilot who went from Melbourne to Canberra via Adelaide on the day of the health debate.

  49. 292
    shaboh Says:
    November 15th, 2007 at 10:39 pm
    Abbott admits Work Choices hurts

    I think Abbott has been watching ‘The Dear Hunter’ and taken to playing Russian roulette but loses every round – can’t be much brain left.

  50. Oh Oh
    The liberals must be busy on Sky News

    “Will the auditor Generals report change your vote”
    Yes 48% No 52%

    Finally Labor nearly wins a poll on Sky News.

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