The ABC reports that Galaxy’s poll of Wentworth, which we first heard about on Thursday, shows Malcolm Turnbull and George Newhouse locked at 50-50 on two-party preferred. The only further detail provided is that Turnbull leads by 8 per cent on the primary vote, and that the sample size was 800. All will be revealed in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph.
UPDATE: Sunday Telegraph article here. Primary vote figures are Liberal 44 per cent, Labor 36 per cent and Greens 14 per cent.
Speaking of ads, does anyone else get the feeling that some of the ads are being ‘trialled’ here and there to figure out which ones end up in the coming blitz?
What time is the Lib launch tomorrow? On Sky? Will Smirky McSmirk be smirking?
Question probably asked a zillion times over the years, but I’ll ask it again:
Explain why a “campaign launch” takes place 13 days before an election (in Labor’s case, 10 days) when the official campaign has been 4 weeks, and the unofficial one going for 9 months?
@ 144
Is that actually a ministry? Is there also a department of People He Did Like? My guess is Pyne will get a full time job as Howard’s personal carer (and that he’ll be forced onto an AWA before any reversals are legislated, with a clause specifying 24 hour ‘toilet attendance’ …).
I see the bookies have Labor favourite to win Robertson: very surprising! Belinda Neale must be campaigning better than one might have expected.
Adam: Bruce Billson is one Liberal I don’t mind, seems like a nice bloke. So the ALP thinks they can win Dunkley?
122 Swing Lowe. Have a look at the polls, then the swing meter. Then you will see the evidence. And when the ALP finally gets its act together and starts advertising. BOOM.
labor secret weapon revealed!!!
There is an army of kevin rudds out there,in every electorate,every city,every state just waiting to appear at a shopping centre near you 🙂
Ashley, it was on the front page of the Daily Terror today.
Maybe it’s on their website too?
Cheers, couldn’t see it on their website. I guess it’s definitely on Monday then (presumably the Wentworth poll is for the Sunday Tele).
That is going to provide a nice talking point for the media on Monday isn’t it? “The Coalition holds its campaign launch… meanwhile another poll shows Howard set to lose Bennelong 53-47 (my guess)”.
That’s gonna be fun.
Yes, Liberal campaign launch: Rodent desperate bribery on Monday
Labor’s campaign launch: Wednesday?
The Green are 3rd on the ballot paper with
Labor 9th
Liberal 10th
Donkey vote to Labor 1%-2%
Interest rates up 1%-2% to Labor…
Factors not taken into account in this latest Gallexy poll.
“Turnbull is toast” or as they say at kindy “cactus”
Adam 146
Please let us know your basis why Nairn down and dusted. He must have a lot campaign cash as he’s running heaps of quality-production commercials on WIN-TV. One is simply anti-Labor fear and loathing, another is boasting of all the pork barrel projects he’s scored for the electorate. Only Anti-Coalition ads are from the nurses union and the abbatoir workers ad which I think is also from union movement.
I would think Labor ad blitz will start from 6pm tomorrow night.
a 12 day blitzkrieg just as the few who haven’t made up their mind finally take a minute interest is the plan. ads up until now are largely irrelevant i think.
Howards record ,Your Rights at Work and Labor discipline have done all the work needed so far.
On realistic/semi realistic ministers seats falling,
i think Howard, Hockey and Andrews going would send a very clear message.
Oh the Joy
Posted on the other thread to cheer up some pessimists!
Prediction based on swings recorded in polls in each state of Ministers (Cabinet and outer) to lose their seats (to pace the drinking games)
Howard-Bennelong
Brough-Longman
Turnbull-Wentworth
Dutton-Dickson
Nairn-Eden-Monaro
Pyne-Sturt
Lloyd-Robertson
Gambaro-Petrie
Oh the Humanity!!
Portland Bet Seat Odds. South Australia. Movement Mention.
In descending, Coalition, ALP.
Aug-07 10/11/2007
Sturt 1.32 1.58 Coalition
3.00 2.25 ALP
Just keeping a note.
As it is so annoying, I suppose that most of us would not have got as far as page 12 in the Australian today.
However, it was good to see the doctors joining their wives and campaigning for action on climate change.
There was a very large (and expensive) ad put in by Doctors for the Environment on that page asking us to consider climate change policies before voting.
164, format doesn’t come out aligned, but there.
William,
we need another thread as this one is exhausted!
Correction on last post, Lib launch is Monday, apologies
Question still stands, hasn’t the campaign already been going for a while? Why does it need launching?
Triffid, Kev put an ad on ABC, apologised for taking our time. Just before the Bill.
The bill?
Andrews has already gone hasn’t he? A search party was sent out from Warrandyte at 0500 hours today and so far only a dog-eared copy of the collected scripts of Some Mothers Do ‘Ave ‘Em has been found.
Looks grim.
Hemingway: because every poll says so, and everyone who knows anything about it says so.
Tory Crimes: Yes it would, wouldn’t it?
SirEggo: Campaigns don’t have real launches any more – as you say, we’ve been in campaign mode ever since Rudd became leader (four-year terms anyone?). The title “campaign launch” is now just used to promote a big speech two weeks out from D-day. The “policy speech” is also pretty much dead. Both speeches will be just standard themes, although Howard, being a long way behind, will splash around a few trillion more bucks in pointless pork. Labor will need to be careful that its event doesn’t look too triumphalist – we all remember Kinnock’s Sheffield rally. The Libs’ problem will be to stop theirs looking like a state funeral.
Andrews? Spit on pavement. AFP still looking for him.
My goodness, are you suggesting he might have escaped to India?
Re 162,
HarryH Says:
Labor are hitting the billboards here on the freeway in SW Sydney. Saw several billboards going south between Liverpool and Campbelltown this evening. “Vote Labor with pictures of Rudd and reminders about their road promises in the electorates here.
Guys
Watch for the trump in the next week.
If it is not played, then the confidence is high and the big “change everything” will come to play.
Sorry for being cryptic, but it is best.
Goodnight.
171 Adam
Thanks, mate. I’ve obviously missed the Polling you mention, but I do know that Mike Kelly is one of the finer new Labor candidates going around. Rates up there with McKew, Combet and Shorten.
I seem to be the only Triple J listener here but on Turnbull, did anyone hear hear Kate on Hack interview him on Friday about climate change. She absolutely tore him him a new asshole! She pointed out that for someone who claims the Australia is leading the world on climate change, it seems a bit strange to insist that every other major emitter sign up to a target before we will. Also pointed out that while he whinges about the lack of a medium-term Labor target for reduction in CO2, he doesn’t have one for short, medium or long term. She ended up saying that LNP had a policy of no targets for anything except renewables-and their target here was actually less than the renewable amount existing- and no plans for a binding treaty and they wanted us to vote for them. The final comment was “You are giving us nothing!”.
173, Inner Westie.
All allusion is illusion. Had not thought of that. Tee Hee.
Diogenes – sounds like one for the podcast!
scaper scapes, on that intriguing note.
Damn, this site is sometimes such a mystery series.
Still, tv is tedious.
once again, in case you haven’t seen it
George Newhouse’s mother responds to Lucy Turnbull:
>
> You might enjoy this, particularly those of you who have received Lucy’s
> letter about the man she loves:
>
>
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLQaKA6n5qo
>
Who is going to their nearest “Walk Against Warming” tomorrow?
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/WalkAgainstWarming&id=194
In Perth, despite appropriate 35 degree heat, there may be about 5000
people coming out to show their concern for action on climate change.
The main parties have been invited to send speakers: it will be
a great opportunity for high profile candidates to parade their
party’s policies and their own charisma in front of big crowds.
Latest rumour here is that one of the two major parties is unable or unwilling
to send a speaker. Perhaps they don’t really feel that they
have appropriate policies. Or perhaps they don’t have
candidates with charisma.
Grog-it will be podcast on the J site next week for your listening pleasure. I got my 8c worth that day. Great to see some rampant bias still existing at the ABC. And I had been a Turnbull sympathiser until them but he was so fuc*king pathetic, it almost made me cringe.
scaper is labor yes?
change everything???
WHo’s on Insiders tomorrow? Swan was scheduled to be on last week, but Howard obviously wanted to get in before the interest rate rise. So that would mean tomorrow and next week will be Swan and Rudd (The campaign started with Costello, then the minor parties, 2 more to go).
TV and radio Political advertising is banned from the Weds before the election day, right?
Labor better push that button,
to answer the Q’s about the launch timing, apart from impact, all the “parliamentary assistance(tax payer funded staffers)” stops when the launch happens so the teams have to doc of pay and just do some leg work for free.
186 Follow the preferences – snap.
Dr Good, I can tell you Turnbull is not. Hack asked Turnbull if that told us something about the Environment Minister’s priorities. He wasnt happy.
I, must, know, what, scaper, means…………
Hi all: I posted this on the ACNielsen thread but didn’t realize we had all moved to this one so I’ll try again. The other couple of posters lingering there seemed to appreciate it …. *blush*.
My entry in the limerick contest:
A pugilistic ex-seminarian,
Sought control of all matters ovarian,
Come November (five and twenty),
He’ll need sedatives a-plenty,
And a stint in a nice sanitarium.
Sir Eggo, The campaign launch signals the point at which all of the travel and accommodation stops being a taxpayer funded event and becomes the responsibility of the parties. This is why the launches are so close to polling day, to keep the snouts in the trough just that little bit longer.
anyone notice the “be alert not alarmed”” ad has been on TV and Paper in the last week?
Why so Gerr? I agree I would love to see the ALP go ad crazy – pushing 20% by 2020, the child care, the education stuff… but from what I can see they’re countering the Libs interest rate ads pretty well. And as for the anti-union ads and the “ALP soft on crime” they’re just elevator music now.
Yes the Libs will come out with a child care and housing policy. You know, I know it, so I bloody hope the ALP HQ know it, and thus the ALP should get in with some policy ads now to make it look like the Libs are dragging their feet.
But the ALP is still in front no need to panic yet!
Back to the Bill, the Bill.
Workchoices.
How much is this minute examination of every AWA costing we, the taxpayer?
FOI, anyone?
Did our union dues not pay previously for such scrutiny, prior to embarking on perilous waters?
Now an ABC ad by JWH. Keeping interest rates ‘as low as possible’.
Ok Grog but I like to pre-emptively panic just in case…..
lol – I’m a life memeber of that club!
Onto an off opic, but fun subject, anyone care to guess the make-up of the Liberal shadow ministry?
JC
Yes just saw a National Security ad authorised by Mick Kelty supposedly – it’s no coincidence at all.
Grog, I don’t know that many Lib backbenchers!!!!
Oh c’mon Gerr, JC what would the ALP do – tell the govt it couldn’t put out those alert/alarmed ads during caretaker? And give the Libs a chance to make Rudd looks weak on security?
Zero percent of the population would see those ads and think, oh yes I better vote for Howard.
And on another suggestion in this or another thread, if Bush invades Iran, Howard has already said he won’t go in, but anyway do any ALP peole really fear Howard’s links with Bush being brought to the fore??
If Bush invades Iran, Rudd should come out with some strong “diplomatic” language against it, and he would be able to reduce the Libs to a rump party if they even hinted at supporting or going in as well.
197-Keystone Keelty should be more than alarmed, he must be shitting bricks. He will be one of the first packing their bags under Rudd. What a national disgrace that man is!