The ABC reports that Galaxy’s poll of Wentworth, which we first heard about on Thursday, shows Malcolm Turnbull and George Newhouse locked at 50-50 on two-party preferred. The only further detail provided is that Turnbull leads by 8 per cent on the primary vote, and that the sample size was 800. All will be revealed in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph.
UPDATE: Sunday Telegraph article here. Primary vote figures are Liberal 44 per cent, Labor 36 per cent and Greens 14 per cent.
Nice work Ophuph Hucksake @ 190. You should send a copy to the ex-seminarian (assuming he’s retuned from Oodnadatta) and see if you get a merciful reply.
p.s. Sometimes this blog is like a high school yard at lunchtime: you gotta keep your ears pricked to know where the best fights are.
It’s no coincidence that those ads weren;t on until recently, also Libs are all about National security, I think its subliminal
JC, I think it was Antony Green or Adam who explained that Labor has given permission (gov in caretaker mode) for such ads.
On the Wentworth seat:
If you try to forget who is standing for relection, our high profile vote polarising Mr Turnbull, and just look at the polls swing indicators for NSW and remember the margin in Wentworth is a paltry 2.6.
That is 2.6, see the number and cf it to the swing on in NSW. It makes sense that this seat is currently being given 50-50 status.
Turnbull or no Turnbull, 2.6 is stuff all of a margin to defend in this kind of election climate [pardon the pun]; the Labor candidate is, ok, he is a to**er, but it does not matter in a seat with a 2.6 margin and an electorate in the mood for change. Mathematically speaking,the seat of Wentworth will change colours at this election.
I agree that the gov has purposefully arranged for the ads to be shown during the election campaign, to remind people about terrorism (and by association, “strong-on-terror” Howard).
Labor had to give permission for the ads, but obviously they didn’t have much choice… blocking them would have given the government a good ‘soft on terror’ angle.
No biggie, but another low blow from the government.
Diogenes, I think Keelty and most of the AFP will be extatic if they have seen the last of Howard.
Though they probably like the news laws that do away with warrants needed for searchign and bugging (wonder if they’ll last, I know the greens were against them)
BlueBottle
Yes but that is an inflated margin based on the lat election when King (the deposed sitting Liberal) ran as an independent and picked up 14% (?) of the primary. The real margin is much higher – I would say in the vicinity of 10% despite recent redistributions. If you’ve been near double bay you’ll know what I mean.
Grog-I agree Keelty would love to se the back of Howard but he’s so hopelessly compromised now, esp by Haneef, that he’s got to go. We became an international laughing stock over Haneef and he’s got to take responsibility.
There is no such thing as ‘real margins’. Margins are what they are. If a poll says 50-50 it doesn’t matter what the ‘real’ margin is.
Most people suggest the ‘King’ factor had a very negligible effect in any case.
No one really knows what the “real” margin is in Wentworth, but most pundits seem to agree that it is probably considerably higher than Howard’s 4.3% in Bennelong.
LTEP is back….!
Just been trying the ABC online swing-o-meter (HoR) http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/
When you put Qld on a 8% ALP swing, NSW on 5% you get ALP on 73 seats.
Then move Vic up to .1% swing to ALP, and ALP gain an extra seat, when we all know that the most marginal seat in Vic requires a 5% swing to the ALP before it can fall.
Seems the calculator merely aggregates the swings rather than calulating on a state by state basis. Is that right?
I also notice that you have to move the Vic swing to 5% for the next seat to fall. Seems something not right there.
BlueBottle
The 2001 result was 57.8% TPP to King (LIB), so the current margin after the rediastibution is about 5% off.
This is so good it needs to be reposted in it’s entirety:
Best post I’ve seen on PB in weeks. 🙂
Thanks for a very enjoyable encapsulation of the campaign so far. Did you come up with the “Shenanigan” name? That suits him to a T.
Nothing personal against Turnbull, but I would like to see him, and as many other Liberal frontbenchers gone as possible. Maybe then the party will get the message that extremism alienates voters. The Liberals need a thorough cleanout and rebuild. They have gone off the rails and taken this once-proud nation with them.
Excuse me. Had just stepped out.
I was just at Kevin 07 website, ordering some balloons.
Checked with local party shop today, election balloons? Nup.
Opportunity missed. So much for business acumen.
Plan to helium fill, and release to the heavens on Sunday.
kelly, the 73 figure is wrong, with no swing in vic it is giving it to the libs for some reason.
NB @ #207 says
NB, I’m nowhere near Double Bay. So could you please explain why the Libs margin in Wentworth has suddenly increased by 7.4% to 10%. 2% higher than they have achieved in any election in the last 23 years.
Here are the margins for each election during that time:
2004 5.5%
2001 7.9%
1998 6.3%
1996 7.8%
1993 5.5%
1990 7.2%
1987 8.0%
1984 6.3%
Grog @ 206
Yes, Keelty was savaged by Howard for daring to suggest (back in March of 2004) that the Madrid bombings might have been linked to Spain’s involvement in Iraq. He won’t miss his public humiliator following The Royal Drubbing.
Greetings Comrades,
I see from a perusal of this evening there has been even more than the usual level of violent agreement that typifies this site.
Just a thought:
Make 4 assumptions
Assume the national swing comes in at 6%
QLD is a shade under 6.5% swing
Vic is a shade under 5%
NSW is a shade under 5% and Howard/Turnbull hold on
and say Labor picks up the following as a result:
WA – 2 seats
Tas – 2 seats
NT – 1 seat
SA – 4 seats (assuming the Boothby factor comes true)
QLD – 3 seats (Herbert in doubt)
VIC – ( Deakin in doubt)
NSW – 3 seats (Lindsay, Parramatta and Eden Monaro) (dobell in doubt)
The election would be decided on 3 seats:
Dobell – Health union guy vs Ticehurst?
Herbert – McDonalds guy vs Peter Lindsay
Deakin – ETU guy vs Baressi
Just remember a 5% national swing is massive and as much as self reaffirming propaganda feels good KR may have been telling the truth when he said it was going to be a nailbiter.
It would be ironic if Maccas guy got Labor over the line!
How come we are having to wait so long for a proper post-interest rate poll at the national level???
The suspense is killing me!
Oh thats easy LaborVoter, HQ hasnt told the Australian what figures it wants for Newspoll yet!
Wow, ESJ, great idea. Let’s halve the swings of all the polls and claim victory!
Prat.
Barry, you caught me out being flippant.
Yes 10% is too high, but the 2001 7.9% must be closer to the mark than the current 2.(?)%. Wentworth was one of the few/only electorates that recorded a significant swing to Labor last time, and it had to be on the back of the King/Turnbull preselection and then independent fighting. This will swing back to Turnbull this election. My point is that as much as I might like it to be otherwise Wentworth wont fall.
And if you were near Double Bay you would uderstand my comment. It’s the most unbelievable den of established wealth/snese-of-entitlement I’ve ever experienced – makes Toorak look like Kingsford Smith.
The real margin in Wentworth is said to be between 5-7%
Labor advertising: I’ve also seen Rudd’s 5 minutes slots on the ABC, including tonight. And the ALP ads are appearing on commercial television after 7PM at night. The Libs seem to have bought all the slots during the 6PM news bulletins.
LaborVoter @ 221
I do not expect that this poll will be all that much different. The media made it very clear that the reserve bank would be putting up interest rates due to the ecomomic figures before the last Newspoll.
Numbers may not be your strong suit Stunkrat,
but even at 55-45 that is a national swing of 7.8% so you will find my swings are very realistic.
Ashley @ #210 says
Between elections, there are changes to the electoral roll in every electorate. People die; people reach voting age for the first time; people migrate to Australia and become citizens; and, people move between electorates.
No one knows the “real” margin in any of these electorates. We use the margin from the previous election because it makes more sense than any other measure.
Can we all just agree we’re not certain what the ‘real’ margin in Wentworth is?
There is a poll of it out which shows 50/50 TPP. Therefore Turnbull’s ‘real-time’ margin is 0% +/- MOE (4% on 800?)
Gerr and others.
I heard Kev saying recently that the Govt was releasing our funded ads beyond the caretaker convention niceties. Whatever was agreed to earlier, by the sound of.
As for the ads, I saw an ALP ad tonight. It started off with a pic of the ‘Australian families have never been better off’ and you can clearly see the ‘howardfacts.com’ in the ad. It goes on to a lady talking about the financial stress her family is in. So watch out of the advertising blitz real soon.
@ 224
Double Bay is the cosmetic surgery capital of the antipodes (where insecurity about aging is in inverse proportion to wealth).
A campaign built around subsidised botox therapy for the over 90’s would go down a treat I reckon.
“New Tricks” on the ABC rates its socks off on Saturday nights, and Rudd’s 5 minute thing aired straight afterwards: lots of people would have seen it tonight.
ESJ: The ‘Maccas guy’ has a name, it’s George Colbran, and since I grew up in Townsville I can tell you he has done more for Townsville than Peter Lindsay has ever done. Don’t under estimate Colbran.
ESJ @220
Take Antony’s caluclator, set it to state swings.
Put in QLD 6.4%, VIC 4.9%, NSW 4.9%, as per your specification.
And then adjust the sliders so that you *just* get
2 seats in WA – 2.0%
2 seats in TAS – 2.8%
1 seat in NT – 3.3%
4 seats in SA – 7.1%
National swing 4.9%
Result: 80 seats to Labor
Take away 3 seats (not that that is consistent). Result is 71 (+2 IND) to 77.
No I agree Will I think Colbran would be an excellent candidate for Labor.
HH – Yes I am sure all over the inner city of Mel and Syd and lower north shore of Sydney people preparing to watch the Bill had a very positive experience with the infommercial.
… direct proportion … oh f*ck it, I’m going to bed …
If you want a true reflection of how things stand, watch where the leaders are.
Howard: in Lindsay for a 2nd straight day, trying to hold on to a seat Labor thinks it has in the bag
Rudd: campaigning in Sturt, Christopher Pyne’s seat with a margin of 7%.
I think we can work out which of the two is having to defend territory.
Matt – not until we find out the sample size and methods of the poll. Plus the reported Greens primary was 14% (not sure but I think that was given above somewhere). THe preferences in this distrubution are likely to be all over the place and go to the Libs much more than usual.
@233 – Brilliant. Call GW immediately.
ESJ-there is a flaw in your logic. There has never been an occasion when a Government has got in with less than 49% popular vote. They just can’t make enough seats with 47% even, let alone 45%.
Mad cow ,
You’ve included Boothby, Bennellong and Wentworth which I specificaly excluded.
Note: Howard Hater
ABC TV ad, JWH. After.
New message, Keeping interest rates ‘as low as possible’.
I think Turnbull is worth keeping in Parliament, and I was most unimpressed by Newhouse on the 7.30 Report the other night. One got the impression he had been conscripted to be the candidate, and didn’t really want it. He was a total wuss on the pulp mill issue.
Obviously, Wentworth is necy-and-neck. But I doubt that Greens preferences will go as strongly to Labor in wentworth as in other seats. For example, the Geoffrey Cousins supporters may go independent/Green, but why would they give their preference to Labor? At least we have some hints that Turnbull, deep down, is not a big pulp mill fan. Newhouse would have no say on the issue should Labor win.
It is interesting, though, that while Wentworth has always been considered a “blue-ribbon” Liberal seat, it’s seldom had a really big margin over Labor, nothing like seats like Berowra or Mackellar.
Kevin is on Sky Election Channel
Link below:
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
ESJ @241, if you adjust the swings in those seats to be below the swing, then to remain consistent with the given state and federal swings, you have to put those votes elsewhere. That is the swing goes *up* elsewhere.
Diogenes,
My real point is:
At 55% Labor wins, at 52% Labor may lose due to poor candidate selection. After all I imagine for many of you partisans it would be a very sad thing if Nicole Cornes, Belinda Neal or ETU guy in Victoria was the difference on the night?
NB @ 239
Sample size is 800 as per William’s post. Preference allocations could be out of kilter, or they could not be, maybe they actually asked people their second preference. I’m sure there was a reasonable number of people voting Green and preferencing Liberal at the last election too. Remember 40% of King voters preferenced Labor
I can’t believe so many of you admire Malcolm Turnball! What makes you think he is any different from the rest of Howard’s mob? Don’t forget Turnball endorsed Work Choices and a myriad of other heinous Howard policies!
ESJ — it is looking very much like Howard will lose Bennelong. I reckon Malcolm will probably hold on (just) in Wentworth. But 5 polls (and apparently a 6th on Monday) say that Howard will be defeated in Bennelong by at least 52-48.
ESJ, I think the Libs have their own candidate problems 🙂