Galaxy: 50-50 in Wentworth

The ABC reports that Galaxy’s poll of Wentworth, which we first heard about on Thursday, shows Malcolm Turnbull and George Newhouse locked at 50-50 on two-party preferred. The only further detail provided is that Turnbull leads by 8 per cent on the primary vote, and that the sample size was 800. All will be revealed in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph.

UPDATE: Sunday Telegraph article here. Primary vote figures are Liberal 44 per cent, Labor 36 per cent and Greens 14 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

423 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50 in Wentworth”

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  2. Peter @ 100 – no, just for some reason I can’t post something – can’t explain why – there are no words in it which I would expect would automatically cause by post to be set aside. just doesn’t come up. weird

  3. The Liberals campaign was dependent on there being no interest rate rise. They were so wrong and as Rod Cameron suggests in todays Age, that is why their campaign is in such disarray now.
    Costello categorically stated there would be no rise in November. Dutton did the same. Why were they certain?
    What did they know that made them bet the house it?

  5. I think we will see something that has not being witnessed before in the political landscape.

    There will come a time when all parties will sit at the table in agreement to take this nation forward as we approach the biggest challenge to our existence.

    We will all have to be brothers in arms.

  6. Ok, how many deck chairs from the front bench are going overboard? I will say 8 and they belong to (in no particular order):

    Andrews 🙂
    Howard 🙂
    Abbot 🙂
    Costello 🙂
    Hockey 🙂
    Pyne 🙂
    McGauran 🙂
    Turnbull 🙂

    I will keep my informal list at home and check it off in 2 weeks time. I would dearly like to add Downer and Ruddock to that list but I don’t honestly think either will go (in spite of rumors to the contrary in Mayo recently)

  7. Socrates – Woman knocked down

    My understanding is, after listening in to an airport lounge conversation of two Liberal hacks, that Howard knocked the woman over in a fit of rage. Evidently she said something about being sorry that Howard wasn’t sorry for saying he wasn’t really sorry the previous day. Howard then decked her and as she lay on the ground he pointed to her and said “And I’m not sorry about that either”. Since then Lib minders have been desperately trying to spin the story that she was accidentally knocked over by the press scum – or scrum – not sure which. Denis Shenanigan has a letter from PM & C proving that Howard didn’t do it so I guess that’s the real truth.

    Something like that anyway.

  8. Some of this ‘undecided’ vote must be taken with a dose of salts.

    A re-interviewee on Geraldine’s program this morning, said that his ‘undecided’ vote had firmed definitely for the coalition.

    Could have knocked me over with how vote card. As if that wasn’t obvious from his first interview of a couple or so weeks ago.

    He said some most unflattering things about Kev, but worse, said if the Greens and the Dems get hold of the Senate, God help us!

    Slight revamp from post, previous thread.

    Yet, some interviewees in the various seats as heard continually, do present as genuine undecided, and don’t express or withhold affiliation/voting pattern.

  13. hey scaper, Mrs Briss says she is not going to sit at any table with Howard or his rank wife or any other poxy liberals for that matter.

  14. Anyone seen any TV advertisements for the minor parties yet?

    I hadn’t seen any in Adelaide before tonight (Family Fraud twice in 10 minutes).

  15. Some of these supposed undecideds betray themeselves by how they refer to things which, indicates they do have a bias. The real undecideds are the people who think about politics once a year for 5 minutes in the polling booth. Anthony says they follow the trend 2/1. Maybe that is the big deal about momentum, make it appear you have the trend?

  17. hugh briss,

    Curs don’t sit at the table, they sit on the floor and feed off the scraps!

    The table is a privilege that is earned.

    Got to go….leg of hockey for dinner.

  19. Mad Cow,

    Antony said that the undecideds break 2 to 1 with the current trend in the polls, so the poll leader. In this case, that would be the ALP nationally as they have led for the last 11 months or so. That means that of the undecideds, if they break this time as they have done so historically; Rudd will get 67% of those. When Antony posted that (about 2 weeks ago I think) I pretty much stopped worrying about the outcome of the election 🙂

  20. kind @ 115

    The AEC should just use a random number generator and save them all the trouble. (No interruption to waxing their SUVs or whatever.)

  22. Julie,

    On what basis are you saying that Warringah (for Abbott) is going to fall?

    I also seriously doubt Menzies (for Andrews) or North Sydney (for Hockey) are about to fall either…

  23. Julie @106, Well a couple of those are a bit of a long shot, but heck, it’s nice to dream. Final result 57% with ‘special’ swings in ‘special’ seats.. like Mayo 🙂

  26. Socrates @ 58, a camera man walked backwards and knocked her over. That’s why you see a camera man kneeling over her which is kinda unusual as his hands were full and really could not help her.

  28. I won’t mind if Turnbull survives, even though I’m desperate to see the end of Howard. A defeated Liberal party will have to rebuild, and a lot of current policy will go into the garbage bin along with Howard. The Liberals will look at the demographics they’ve lost and will plan to win them back, and this will involve dropping the wedges and dogwhistle stuff that has alienated so many inner-city small-l types, and getting back to a more mainstream position on IR. It beggars belief that Costello will be the man to do that, it will need somebody like a Turnbull to do it.

    My hope is that we will actually end up with a lot more consensus than we have today, so that progress on issues like the Republic and state/federal relations in areas like health can happen, instead of the bitterness and division and xenophobic populism we have with Howard. But first Rudd has to dispose of Howard, then Turnbull (or someone like him) has to destroy the far right elements within his own party!

  31. Swing Lowe,

    Just wishful thinking on my part, who I think will go. Nothing formal there at all, I was just putting up my “dart board” list for the 24th ;-). I am sure we all have our “want to see these guys” go list, what is yours?

    (Now, mind you, some of those names on my list are backed up by reliable polling data and are more likely to go than others)

  33. Once upon a time, but not so long ago, I expressed a view that Sidonos had left Bunker Howard, perhaps as a matter of principle.

    But also because he knew Howard would blow up once Kev was on the good ship.

    Sidonos comes across as a kindly fellow, in interviews.

    But, slow I am, but I think Sidonis was Howard’s, whom?

    Glen, name a Nazi, who bailed out before the bunker blew.

  34. Rudd campaigning today in Sturt with his wife and ALP candidate Mia Handlin.
    Labor is going all out to win every seat in Adelaide!

  38. Howard Hater @ 134.

    I live in Sturt & saw them at Thorndon Park this morning. If you also live in Sturt, where did you see them?

    I haven’t seen Pyne or any of his people this election.

  39. If Turnball loses Wentworth, Ruddock will be put out to pasture and Malcolm will get Berowra!
    I can’t believe supposed Labor supporters are actually barracking for a Liberal to win a marginal seat.
    Howard Government ministers who could be very vulnerable:
    Rodent
    Turnball
    Gary Nairn
    Chris Pyne
    Fran Bailey

    I don’t believe Hockey or Abbott will lose their seats

  40. Oh, but what of what will poor Christopher do if he loses? (I can see an uncontrollable addiction to war histories coming on … dear Chris, so much opportunity, so little talent …)

  41. HH, if Rudd is going all out on a seat like Sturt, *when* is he gonna visit Paterson? And when is the ALP machine gonna crank up the ads here. If it wasn’t for this blog I’d hardly notice we’re having an election.

  45. Mad Cow, perhaps Rudd will be visiting Patterson soon? I read in the paper during the week that the ALP is very encouraged by polling in your seat.

  46. Julie I think you’re being just a tad optimistic there. The only minister who definitely going to lose his seat is Nairn (having been specifically denounced by William, how could he hope to survive?). Pyne, McGauran, Bailey and Lloyd are obviously in serious danger. In Qld Brough and Gambaro are in some danger, although few seem to be predicting their defeat. (I am advised however that Labor is still spending big in Longman). I gather Billson is increasingly nervous about Dunkley. Howard, Turnbull and Hockey are obviously under threat, but may yet survive. I don’t believe Abbott or Costello are in trouble. The chance to beat Downer by finding a strong independent has been missed.

  48. HH, so encouraged by polling that it’s doing nothing? It’s been wall to wall Baldwin ads at times here with the only comeback being the union ads.

  49. The DECIDER for Wentworth can be found here:-

    http://greens.org.au/Wentworth

    Susan Jarnason, the Green candidale for Wentworth, and her votes will be the the determinating factor in Wentworth , as will be the case all across Australia.
    What does the Main Stream Media give us “2PP Club” results and hide the HUGE Green vote figures.

  50. HH, where did you see the info which said the Bennelong poll would come out on Monday? Was it in the treeware version of the DT, or online?

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