The ABC reports that Galaxy’s poll of Wentworth, which we first heard about on Thursday, shows Malcolm Turnbull and George Newhouse locked at 50-50 on two-party preferred. The only further detail provided is that Turnbull leads by 8 per cent on the primary vote, and that the sample size was 800. All will be revealed in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph.
UPDATE: Sunday Telegraph article here. Primary vote figures are Liberal 44 per cent, Labor 36 per cent and Greens 14 per cent.
If there’s a Labor primary vote of 36% and a Greens vote for 14% Malcolm is quite possibly cactus. That’s 50% of Wentworth voting for centre/left candidates – almost unprecedented! If Newhouse gets up to 38% then he’s home. I reckon it will depend on whether the climate change/pulp mill vote goes to the Greens or the independents, and if it goes to the independents, will they preferene Labor.
@42 in 1995 it would be just ‘after’ not ‘as’ Keatings boom began. And if Mr Amo is crediting Mr Howard with his prosperity he either needs to learn english (perhaps the racists are right) or someone should tell him (oh wait I want to say the next thing but occassionally self-censorship kicks in, if anyone knows how to move from ‘intermittent’ to ‘on’ I’d be most grateful).
50:50 in Wentworth is indeed a labor dream, win lose or draw the ALP should be very very happy. Nice too, to see some quite silly criticism of a male candidate, like Ms Cornes the criticisms to me seem bizarre and unfounded and unrealistic. But it is nice this time it is stupid unfair unrealistic criticism of a bloke. There are probably only 100 extra bloke candidates for you to have silly unfounded and unrealistic criticisms of and I’ll have to withdraw my theory the attacks on Ms Cornes are largely sexisim alive and well in Australia.
You people should really have a sit down and a long long hard think about the kind of candidates you want and how easy it is to pick on people who don’t have Bill Clinton’s sex appeal and political instincts, Paul Keatings intellect and the cuddliness of santa clause. Look at world leaders for a moment. I’m not sure, if you were ever let onto a pre-selection panel or committee you’d find a single candidate you could run.
And I’m assuming you are liberal trolls no real labor person would say such nasty things in the open during an election campaign we have factions to keep the bitchiness inside with friends.
I feel funny saying this. I want Labour to win resoundingly but I hope Turnbull keeps his seat. Out of all the coalition I think he is the idea’s man. He’s intelligent and I get the feeling he’s toeing a party line he can’t wait to be freed from. I think the Liberal party needs a leader like him to pick up the pieces and maybe become PM when the Labor cycle ends.
I think Costello is the Beazley of the Liberal party and will never be PM. Just opposition leader for a while.
What were the primaries given in that poll?
Do you think they have apportioned Greens preferences correctly?
Malcom Mackarras, incessantly wrong Grandfather Psephology, was interviewed briefly in a television report about Wentworth last week. He reckoned that many Libs who are angry over the Pulp Mill decision will still give Turnbull their 2nd preference after Green Party because they they dislike Costello (Mr. 4 %) heaps and want the Liberals to still have Turnbull available after Costello stuffs things up as Opp. Leader or PM.
Having read Turnbull’s books about his leadership of the Republican Referendum Campaign and his role as advocate in the Peter Wright “Spycatcher” trial, I consider him less odious than Costello, Abbott, Coonan, Brough, and the rest.
Nevertheless, it would be a huge treat to see Labor take Wentworth for the first time.
Win one. Lose many.
Anyway, Turnbull may yet be one of the last of the remnant small L Liberals left standing.
Might provide some sanity as they take their few places on the Opposition benches.
Crikey Whitey,
I’m with you and Nostradoofus on this as Turnbull with all his faults is the next logical leader and we need a strong opposition to achieve true democracy.
It might take over a year before this happens though, to the fact that I see much bloodletting.
Sorry to change the subject, but I was wondering about the incident at (Penrith?) shopping centre where the woman was knocked over. After reading that she was knocked unconscious, it cannot have been a trivial bump. Apart from Howard’s reaction, the obvious question was – who knocked her over and in what circumstances? I ask because I find that if there is one thing journalists are bad at reporting, it is indiscretions by journalists. So, did the press pack knock her over, or Howard’s minders? I presume that if it was Howard himself it would have made the front page. One here for Media Watch?
Oh, I agree, Turnbull is generally less odious than the others. But, he’s in bed with Howard and should be judged as such.
And I hate to say it but, Turnbull’s personal rep doesn’t matter that much in this election. This is very much about Howard.
Crikey, scaper etc…
The next Liberal PM hasn’t even thought of running for parliament yet.
Give it a decade or so.
mad cow,
In bed with Turnbull??……I wonder if big John wore a wet suit?
For some reason that makes me think ‘bottom of the harbour…’ 🙂
unlike other seats, you have to be careful with expectations from the Green vote and independant vote here.
if the Green vote is 16% in Wentworth, it could well be made up of 10% labor 2nd prefs and 6% lib 2nd prefs.
i think some “wet” Green Libs in Wentworth will vote Green and preference Malcolm, whereas in other seats they will abandon Howards Libs altogether.
I agree with those express a certain approval of Turnbull.
As a person of his business background, I can imagine him chafing sorely at the party line and at possibly the unwillingness of his boss to adapt to new ideas, renewing to stay afloat, perceive the changing winds, if not climates.
I may have missed it, but I haven’t heard him espouse any of the mean spirited attitudes and actions commonly dished out by the other Government front benchers.
Labor is for misogynists
Liberal is for everyone
HarryH, it aint just the Green he’s gotta worry about 🙂
mad cow,
Rusty bed springs to mind.
According to Ozelections, Turnbull has 44% primary and Newhouse (ALP) 36%. If Greens have 14%, that would indeed make it very close. However, greens prefs may not necessarily flow to Labor in great strength in this seat.
Crikey, which way did Turnbull vote on WorkChoices?
scaper.. wet liberal? ah.. got it
Tabitha, it’s past your bedtime, so be a good little Liberal girl and tuck yourself in.
Labor is for people’s needs
Liberal is for corporate greed
There’s no way Howard would campaign in Wentworth. Anyone who votes Liberal around here will vote despite Howard, not because of him.
Didn’t Anthony Green say that undecides broke 2/1 with the trend. That might indicate a surprise loss for Turnbull.
Oh, duh, mad cow.
Guess your’e right!
William, please delete my comment on Turnbull.
Liberal are misogynists.
Labor gives opportunities to strong women like me.
I don’t buy this ‘frustrated centrist’ line about Turnbull. Recall that when Howard was madly spruiking the N option, Turnbull was there at the dispatch box dutifully thumping out his master’s message: ‘renewables will never provide base load power’ etc. (He should have a read of Ian Lowe’s recent (quarterly) essay Reaction Time if he’s still of that view.) And now he expects us to believe that he and his party are the only mob who can responsibly take the global warming agenda forward in this country.
I mean, I accept that policy development always involves a degree of compromise (which Turnbull’s immune from apparently), and backroom argy-bargy etc., but in my opinion there is a line beyond which compromise becomes serious abrogation of responsibility. And there could be no more a fundamentally serious challenge facing all of us at present than global warming.
To have so passionately and effectively done Howard’s (obfuscatory, denial-afflicted) bidding on this question makes me think Turnbull’s either too weak for such an important job, or a fraud.
I’d be very happy to see him go (but as I said in an earlier post, I suspect he won’t).
You know I hate it when you’re on one blog, and the you find another one has started, and you realise most of what you have written for the last 1 hours has been read by about 2 people!!
Turnbull is NOT going to lose his seat.
He’s probably the only one in the entire Coalition with a pulse. Plus the other guy is useless.
Yes there is a lot of green voters, but Turnbull also has a rock solid Primary vote which is gonna get him over the line quite easily.
Plus you’d have to be crazy to vote for that other idiot over Turnbull… if the 7:30 report interview is anything to go by he’s a complete airhead. Turnbull however actually seems to believe what he is saying even if most of it is BS.
Turnbull to win Wentworth easily imho.
Kina can you explain that one about the undecideds?
Labor are true economic reformers.
Liberal piggy back off Labor’s success and botch it up by allowing 6 successive rises in the past term.
Mmm, even my couplet is a contradiction in terms.
Think I merit a lack of performance bonus.
What say you, non binders?
Turnbull – General Counsel for Consolidated Press Holdings Limited and you guys think he is a wet.
He was Packers Mr Fixit. He is no cuddly moderate.
Labor Voter @ 79. I’m not sure that what you’re saying actually hold true.
Turnbull told Cundall that he hated the pulp mill.
Publically, he’s for it.
What about Kyoto? Behind the scenes he’s for signing it, publically, he’s against signing it.
You could hardly claim that he believes in what he’s telling the public.
It’s easier to argue that he doesn’t have the courage to speak up for what he believes in.
Triffid,
It is a bit like rowing a boat. Going one way while facing the other. I am told that this is very clever politics.
Triffid,
On the mark.
I have an email in my possesion indicating this.
He and Garrett both are in this situation.
Meanwhile Rome burns.
Apparently he is the Minister FOR Climate Change, I think in that regard he is doing a fine job.
Of course I would want Garret as the Minister AGAINST climate change any day.
As much as I want to get rid of the Rodent, I do not wish to see Malcolm Turnbull lose his seat. To me he represents true Liberalism, as opposed to the neo-conservatism of Howard et al. There is also the fact of his support for the republic, we need people of his breadth of vision in Parliament, irrespective of politics.
I am having troube posting, so this is just a test…. sorry
Triffid at 84.
Maybe Turnbull is Peter Garrett’s brother in arms?
Turnbull is completely empty. If he was a true liberal he’d resign the Cabinet after their disgusting antics and move to the backbench.
How can a true liberal support the party after Haneef… Iraq… Tampa etc. If you sell out you don’t deserve any sympathy.
ruawake,
against normal standard bearers Turnbull is a raving rightwing nutcase headkicking pompous asshole.
against the bulk of fellow Howard frontbenchers he looks a moderate.
he’ll win Wentworth
Does anyone know why I might be having trouble posting my post?
In today’s Northern Star, which is the local newspaper for the Northern Rivers District of NSW, they have today their own poll for the PAGE constituency.
By their own admission it is not particularly scientific, but they say that 330 people were polled. No TPP, but it’s 44% ALP, 41% Nat, with others/undecideds as the rest. Page is a marginal and one in which the Coalition and the ALP have been outdoing each other to see who is the best at porkbarrelling.
Earlier in the week, the Northern Star also reported that Rudd, who was at Ballina RSL on Melbourne Cup Day afternoon, picked Efficient as the winner, which to me, being a Byron kind of guy, is a big sign. 🙂
Hi Tabby #65,
Your simple yet mind blowing quips do give me moments of clarity as this blogging blogs my head…NOT!
However I must know & I think you can answer this – do Liberals fold and Labor voter scrumple? or visa-versa?
I must know or I’ll have another sleepiness night! 🙂
‘Kina can you explain that one about the undecideds’? Per mad cow at 80.
We are waiting; is Mrs Kina okay?
True, LTEP, at 91. Is Turnbull Costello’s brother in arms?
Re 80,
Mad cow,
Not much to explain. Antony originally reported that a couple of weeks back. He said it was based on historical polling references so there is data to back it up. Don’t know if he is hunkered down or not getting ready for the 24th, I suspect so, but if he gets back onto one of the threads here, we can ask him on ‘what basis’ he says that? :):)
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Adam Says:
Isabella Says:
Jai-mei Says:
And charles says: ????????? What has dreams got to do with taking a photo, and what has Isabella’s misinterpretation got to do with a Joke, Gay, happy or otherwise ????????
mad cow @ 80
There was a discussion on one of the threads some days ago about how the broke on election day. One person said it went mostly to the govt, I think h Possum may have mentioned something on his site somewhere and I recall Anthony Green piping in and saying that it broke 2/1 in the direction of the trend. That is my recollection.
Michael @99.Are you Glen?