Curiously, all we have from Morgan so far is a small-sample telephone poll conducted over the past two nights showing Labor’s lead at 56-44, about half way between last week’s face-to-face and the previous phone poll a fortnight ago. The press release continues to assure us that “the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week”. So where is it?
UPDATE: Morgan have just added a new poll from the same sample covering attitudes to the Tamar Valley pulp mill, so maybe they’re not done for the day.
If it’s 22% Morgan for the afternoon, I’ll sing it again:
“IT ONLY A MORGA’n’ POLL (BUT I LIKE IT)!!!!!!!!!!!”
do.not.take.Morgan.seriously.
Repeat
do.not.take.Morgan.seriously.
Morgan f2f with Antony’s thingamebob. 😉
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=13.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
What they’ve got traffic in Adelaide….??? Nah!
We have socrates, diogenes, but I haven’t heard much from plato or aristotle or democritus (who proposed the atomic theory in a blanced way)
Spiros – I agree. especially when, if it’s a face to face, it is taken over quite a long period and so pre-dates the interest rate rise – hence making it even more unbelievable
Socrates see post #143
61-39 – that narrowing is really taking off.
22% !! More information please- anyone!!
Can we free Dolly Downer to take up the plum diplomatic post at Baghdad embassy?
Apparently the rat is being heckled in Lindsay – by the normal folk, it seems.
[Lib ad in my letterbox today says “Labor’s too inexperienced, there still learning”]
Ahh yes, that reminds me. ESJ, Glen and JoM, why do we no longer hear anything at all about the great coalition “TEAM” since the debates, where have they gone boys?
What happened to the TEAM 🙂
I think Morgan produced a similar outlier near the end of the 2004 election.
Too small and MOE, nothings changed. No? Stable on the 56-44 to 53-47 range…no? Still better to be 56 than 53….no?
Antony: If you’re reading, that ‘Set swing to Recent Poll’ is truly excellent.
Have I missed something – is there a Morgan F2F out?
Dolly just might run for premier in SA. He vehemently denied this a few weeks ago so it must be true. I’d love to see Media Mike wipe that smug God-I love-having-a-carrot-up-my-arse smile off his mendacious face. And on the philosophers Aristotle was fascist, Plato has been discredited but Democritus was a true legend. No-one will ever match the gadfly Socrates though.
Did it say their or there. it should read they’re. If not then they are the ones learning…how to put a flyer together.
Denis Shanahan is leading with “John Howard has once again shown a deft campaigning hand and the experience of a true professional by boxing Rudd into exactly where he would like to be”.
Yes, its ‘the widening’ all pollsters expected as voters started to tune in, pay attention, and think
“holy crap! who are these losers posing as our government?”
Wha? 61-39?
Ill take that thanks very much.
Nothing on the Morgan site AND the pulp mill results seem to have disappeared as well… 22% lead seems astronomical, even for Morgan.
Matthew Sykes @ 146
The Sturt Road and Port Road overpasses are still on the cards, but are going to be staggered with the current Anzac Highway one so that it doesn’t completely destroy South Road during construction.
Let it end I’m here 🙂
I just heard on News Radio from a director at Roy Morgan that the weekly face to face poll held last weekend had Labor leading by 22%, Newspoll was out on Tuesday and it too was taken last weekend so me thinks something is going on at Morgan’s maybe a computer virus?
This has probably been said, but Michelle Levine said it was a large f2f taken last weekend and showed 61-39.
They were checking their figures!
Pulp mill poll is still up:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4238/
Let It End @ 157
If the statement were “Labor’s too inexperienced there. Still learning”, and it were positioned beneath a big photograph of the Treasury HQ in Canberra, then maybe this would have passed as grammatically acceptable propaganda.
Nothing a lunchtime read of Lynne Truss’ Eats, Shoots & Leaves couldn’t have avoided.
Catch ‘22%’. The gov is dead, even if it is an anomaly(?) its a BAD trend for the rat, who according to Shamahan has Rudd right where he wants him….
Sad isn’t it.
Could you also add an “I’m Feeling Cocky” button that we can just click whenever one of these sort of polls come out?
And perhaps an “Annihilate” option we can tick which brings up an image of the horseshoe of seats in the house of reps, showing the blaze of red across the parliament with a smattering of blue seats in the corner.
Sean – Morgan F2F reported on News Radio as 61-39.
Greensborough – is that for real? And if so, has Howard therefore decided he likes being trapped in a closed off drainpipe with a pack of hounds at the open end? The only thing I can say apropos of Shammers if F%@#!
RGee 153
Thanks. In a sense who cares if a 22% lead is accurate. Even if you take off the margin of error the best case result from that will still have every coalition staffer in a marginal having ulcers from now till Monday’s Newspoll. Two weeks out they know they’re dead.
Memo to self: put sparkling wine on ice.
@115:
“It is not the case that the ALP 2PP vote is just as likely to be 56 as it is to be 51.75 because the latter figure is within the margin of error. It is 95% likely that the ALP vote is between 51.75 and 60.25 (at the moment).”
Not entirely right. The correct interpretation of a frequentist confidence interval is that in 95% of surveys of the same sample size (n), the sample statistic would fall within this range. You are interpreting this like a Bayesian, but to do that correctly, you need to specify your prior. Assuming gaussian errors, 56 is still the maximum likelihood estimate however, so you are correct that it is more likely than any other value in the probability density function and the MoE is symmetrical.
Love this site and Possum’s – just picked these up a couple of days ago and have been lurking, laughing, and increasingly looking forward to a spectacular night of celebration come 24 Nov.
Matt102
I know my comments are totally emotional and lacking in logical thought but I dont care anymore.Lets call aspade a spade,at least I will.Howard ,his government and everything it stands for is base and degenerate cloacked in the Flag and the church.I use the word traitor in respect to the AWB scandal.How many of the bullets Saddam purchased had the names of our sons and daughters on them.And how many were payed for with money from the bribes payed to Alia.The government was warned or informed on numerous occasions but ignored.The bank balance of our wheat farmers was demmed mothere important than our soldiers lives.. and the lives of other coalition of the willing soldiers.I say for this act of treachery alone the governmet should be turfed out.Shame on them and shame on anyone who votes for them.
What’s the Libs slogan for today “Gone to Shite”?
William are you going to hold an election night part-tay?
Pick a city all the bloggers could attend. 🙂
ella re socrate, fawk out on champagne. You can get cattier which is an excellent champagne for around $30. It has the aroma and yeastiness of a great champagne at a bargain price. Definately beats Moet.
BV, you can still get to it from the link you posted but, unless I am blind, there is no link to that page from the Morgan home page. It was originally posted above the phone poll results. Originally posted by accident?
I think a swing like that is on peoples minds 22%, but while not possible on the day I think it is on ppls minds and they are warming to Rudd as Howard becomes more and more irrelevant.
Red Wombat it is we’l have the best health and housing policies ever!
I woild like to apolgise to Col and Matt but in no way am I sorry about the PM John Hunt Being a Coward.
News radio – ‘Hecklers cause trouble for Howards campaign’
Re “Knock Over Old Lady Scumbaggate” could this be the Latham Handshake moment of the campaign? Especially after the Sorrygate?
irrelevant do do doroodoo. (sung to the tune of manamana from the muppet show)
Hmmm mupets Howard-Kermit, Downer-ms piggy, costello fuzzy, gonzo-mark vail?
‘Scumbag’ that term sits well with lying rodent dont it….
I assume the f2f was done on the same weekend as Galaxy and newspoll. Interesting.
Yawn. Another nail in Morgan’s coffin.
So on the same weekend:
Newspoll 53/47
Galaxy 54/46
Morgan 61/39
Even Morgan’s phone poll shows 61/39 to be a joke.
Unfortunate, Morgan has such a long history, its sad to see them destroy their credibility. They are obviously doing something wrong.
I agree with Kina, ACNielsen appears the most reliable.
The ‘handshake’ moment has already come, it’s ‘sorry not apologizegate’. That’s the final beginning of the end – coming on the back and excacerbating the interest rate rise like an unwelcome turd in a swimming pool.
“Knock Over Old Lady Scumbaggate”
Christ I nearly fell over laughing after reading that one.
Beware divorce and infertility under the ALP.
My word… to think in 2 weeks, just two weeks, we can refer to Dear Leader in the past tense…
Honestly, just say anything about Howard in the past tense… it feels so amazing.
I suggest a neutral venue for William’s party – Paris perhaps.
Howard to Woman: “Sure, I’m sorry you’re on the ground in pain and crying – I’m very sorry… ”
Howard to Nation: “… and don’t any of youse mistake that for an apology!”
If Shamahams had to ‘shanner’ this one he’d point to the ‘soft’ ALP vote. I bet he’s glad he only has to spruik the newspoll.
Turns out it was Hyacinth that clocked the lady….she thought it was Pete’s wife.