Morgan: 56-44

Curiously, all we have from Morgan so far is a small-sample telephone poll conducted over the past two nights showing Labor’s lead at 56-44, about half way between last week’s face-to-face and the previous phone poll a fortnight ago. The press release continues to assure us that “the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week”. So where is it?

UPDATE: Morgan have just added a new poll from the same sample covering attitudes to the Tamar Valley pulp mill, so maybe they’re not done for the day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

429 comments on “Morgan: 56-44”

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  2. Col does have a slight point. The level of personal insults on this blog has risen inversely proportional to the amount of insightful analysis.

  3. I just viewed the film of the woman knocked out at Penrith and Howards response says it all.No attempt to help and then just walks away.Nasty little man.He wouldnt p##s on his mother if she was on fire.He disgusts me.He is degenerate, a liar and traitor to this country.

  4. Col, give yourself a few days and you’ll be barking at the moon like the rest of us.

    I’ve even given up smoking so I can shout louder at the television.

    Toughen up, son. It’s a rodent hunt.

  6. I’m sure he was confident that his minders could look after her. I really think people are looking too deeply into an unfortunate incident…
    We should be relishing more significant issues, like Howard’s apparent state of dementia. He really does seem to have gone mad in the last few days:
    * labor will destroy the fertility rate
    * labor will destroy 400,000 jobs
    * labor will push up inflation
    * he’s not apologising for interest rate rises and labor twisted his “sorry” statement

    Altogether very very strange.

    What I suspect is that once politicians start sprouting statements that just don’t coincide with that general gut instinct for what sounds true, then they very rapidly come unstuck.

    Liberal used to go around making fun of Labor for asserting that “the sky would fall in” over workchoices – the goal was to appeal to people’s common sense.

    Now it’s their turn to carry on like chicken little and i really don’t think it’s gunna work

  7. “Shanahanian”

    One-handed statistical analysis

    (cf. One-sided statistical analysis which, whilst also biased, does not involve acts of disrepute whilst watching Howard’s approval rating).

  8. i think its a lack of polls or policy announcements thats to blame. it really has be dull teh past two days. just gaffes and silly photo op’s. no one is going to announce anything on a friday either… might as well do some real work.

  10. In breaking news today, the Japanese Govt finally says sorry for all injustices that their soldiers perpetrated in WW2. This sorry statement is not to be taken as a formal apology however.

  11. More polls in tomorrow’s Government Gazette for Shanahan to misinterpret?
    The only unbiased, objective political coverage I get is on blogs like this one and ozelection 2007. The MSM and the ABC this election have been woeful, one sided and blatantly cheerleading for the Rodent.

  14. wouldn’t it be cute if some concerned soul followed up about the lady who got decked in the mob following Rattus, and found she was Brethren all decked out in bogan tracksuit.

    that would just top off Loughnan’s campaign

  15. I am sorry and regret all the personal insults on this site which have offended Col 46, but I refuse to apologise for it.

  16. Socrates @ 38 says:

    “Thanks, in that case this really means nothing. 56 +/-4.25 = 51.75 to 60.25”

    This is a misunderstanding of the whole concept of margin of error. Even though the sample was not particularly large it is MOST LIKELY that the swing it picked up is real.

    It is not the case that the ALP 2PP vote is just as likely to be 56 as it is to be 51.75 because the latter figure is within the margin of error. It is 95% likely that the ALP vote is between 51.75 and 60.25 (at the moment). But within that spectrum the middle of it is where it probably is, not the extremities. There is no certainty that there has been a 1.5% swing to the ALP since their last poll, but that is the most likely scenario based on the evidence that we have in front of us.

  17. The video I posted at #85, will not go well for the dirty Rodent. The bastard felt it was more important to keep campaigning than to assist an unconscious women.

  19. One could be pardoned for thinking, as Col (46) has apparently done, that on a dispassionate reading of recent threads, this is a website cluttered with the opinions of those who want to indulge in an exquisite form of ‘feel good’ loathing; that is, because they have found a cathartic forum of (mostly) like minded people where they may vent their spleen about how ‘bad’ this country has become under the stewardship of the present prime minister and how unintelligent, moronic or even ‘troll-like’ are those who do not share their despair.

    In fact, this is a truly excellent website, Col, and that is in spite of the tiresome ‘group think’ of the loathers. It contains interesting assessments of opinion polling data not made in the mainstream media, and it is sprinkled with useful and intelligent comment on a range of psephologist’s topics such as the betting markets and electoral behaviour and (albeit occasionally only) leaked internal party polling.

    This website has been bookmarked as favourite on my work and home computers for almost twelve months now. It will continue as a favourite long after this Federal election is decided, when I expect many of the very partisan bloggers will have moved on.

  20. And you reckon HOWARD is a meanie???

    “While campaigning in the southern suburbs seat of Kingston, Mr Rudd also announced a plan to spend $12.5m on a GP Super clinic at Noarlunga.

    Mr Rudd did, however, refuse a request to give his kidney to a patient who was on dialysis.”

  21. John Howards’ last gift to the nation:
    An interest-rate rise, high inflation.
    The battlers are out,
    (They’re not blaming the drought)
    To send him off on his ‘vacation’.

  22. Diogenes @ 112

    Clearly indicates the ALP still think Boothby is in play in this case. Although I’m not sure what Rudd being back in Kingston says…

  24. The reason you would treat Morgan cautiously unless it has fixed something; also why to be wary of Newspoll; AC Neilsen seemingly much better and the one to believe more [maybe] and, Galaxy last election got it right but has been unreliable this year. AND how much is down to luck of the sampling on the day?
    I dont know what figures Galaxy was producing during 2004.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2004/3796/

  29. hahahh Ashley@39 and AlbertRoss@93
    how genius! brilliant idea! 🙂
    I’d like to have a couple of that, willing to pay for them 🙂

  31. More ABC Pro Howard bias: Rudd’s campaigning in South Australia today is totally ignored by ABC radio news, but we get a full 5 minutes on the Rodent in Penrith! Any further evidence required the conservative hacks on the ABC board are running the news/current affairs dept?

  32. “Australian shoppers, in generality, have never been better off. Individually, sure, there’s pain. (sotto voce to stricken woman) Don’t get up or say anything till I’ve finished. (facing tv cameras) I mean not everyone is falling over in shopping centres. Goodness gracious. The aggregate impression, as we would all recognise if we just submited ourselves from time to time to a bit of a common sense, practical, reality mugging (looks to minder), is one of hordes of perfectly erect, sure-footed consumers going about their ordinary business in tasteful tracksuits, not harming themselves and (twitches shoulders) certainly not harming their or their country’s highly achievable prospects of standing on it’s own two feet in a dangerous world over-run by union thugs, illegal immigrants, militant secularists, ABC gardners and unAustralian comedians who seek satirical gratification in the trashing of dead, hence defenceless, national heros.”

  34. caption:
    Man of steel personally intervenes to poll axe terrorist house mum

    Howard gives demonstration of the effects of workchoices on Dinkum donut employee

    Howard responds to taunts that he is too old to be PM.

  35. There was an old rodent called Johnnie
    Whose preferred head of state was a Pommie
    If you care to diverge
    From his neo-con dirge
    You must be a tree-hugging commie!

  39. As I have mentioned before – there will be a backlash on Party journalists and their newspapers after the election including partisan radio stations. Even more so if it is them that costs Labor an election.

    I doubt very much the average labor supporting Australian will let them escape scot free this time around. Just look how popular ‘Get Up’ has become this year. There is new way to get at these people/stations/papers who hitherto were able to hide behind their owners. They will make themselves irrelevant.

  42. Oh david charles – go and have a good lie down

    Partisan group think is what happens occassionally in any congregation of people who share a similiar political perspective – particularly on the eve of an election involving the imminent demise of unquestionably the most divisive, manipulative and corrupt prime minister in Australian History (excuse me if that description is a bit too rich for you)…. Thats life. Get over it – or go somewhere else..

  43. Just what we need, a great outlier. Morgan shouldn’t be taken too seriously. But it does kind of make those “expert commentaries” on how a rates rise would be GOOD for the Coalition looks a bit silly.

  45. Michael, it’s what Roy Morgan’s CEO Michelle Levine stated on News Radio. She was being interviewed for 56/44 phone poll, and said “The bad news for the government is that we have just collated the data from our face to face poll and the gap to Labor is 22%.”

  46. Why not get backpackers like they did for the AWA vetting………………

    Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd has pounced on the Coalition’s proposal to staff local hospital boards with volunteers, saying the Government is “making it up as they go along”.

    Earlier this year, federal Health Minister Tony Abbott indicated that hospital board members would be paid a modest annual fee.

    But he has since indicated they may not be paid at all.

    Mr Rudd has described the plan as shambolic.

    “Has anyone actually looked at the size of these hospital budgets?” he said.

    “You don’t get people who have quality experience to simply volunteer their services.

    “Mr Howard and Mr Abbott are making it up as they go along every step of the way.”

  47. david charles – go and have a good lie down

    Partisan group think is what happens occassionally in any congregation of people who share a similiar political perspective – particularly on the eve of an election involving the iminent demise of unquestionably the most divisive, manipulative and corrupt prime minister in Australian History (excuse me if that description is a bit too rich for you)…. Thats life. Get over it – or go somewhere else..

  48. Also, another prediction. Morgan’s spin on how the two polls can predict such different things will rival Howard and Costello’s interest rate spin.

    Then again, it was taken just after the interest rates and the sorry thing, so not much of a surprise really. I wonder what the F2F sample size is…hopefully a decent number.

  49. Diogenes, its interesting that Rudd has announced an overpass for the corner of South Rd and Sturt Rd, which is almost just outside my office, as the state labor government announced an underpass would be built at the same place in approx 2010 during the 2006 state election campaign.

  50. John 115,

    I understand what you are saying, but don’t fully agree. With the margin for error, it is still too close to previous Morgan polls to tell anything about trend IMO. I do agree that the Morgan phone polls tend to favour the Coalition, so it may not be a bad result.

    RGee
    A 22% SPP lead OTOH would be music to my ears, even if it is Morgan 🙂
    Please explain the source? I haven’t heard it.

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