Morgan: 56-44

Curiously, all we have from Morgan so far is a small-sample telephone poll conducted over the past two nights showing Labor’s lead at 56-44, about half way between last week’s face-to-face and the previous phone poll a fortnight ago. The press release continues to assure us that “the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll is the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week”. So where is it?

UPDATE: Morgan have just added a new poll from the same sample covering attitudes to the Tamar Valley pulp mill, so maybe they’re not done for the day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

429 comments on “Morgan: 56-44”

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  2. welcome col to this blog. For someone new to this site, you seem to make a lot of assumptions on people’s background, allegiances and future opinions.
    It is best to take everything you read with a grain of salt, your first post included.

  3. I always love Morgan’s Q. “Do you think Australia is heading in the right direction?” I would answer yes to that because we are heading for a labor government. Fingers crossed!

  5. col@46

    Look mate, we’ve had a decade of that rodent pouring his small minded bile over anyone he thought he could walk over, while the media, (like the tawdry tart that it really is), magnified his message and genuflected to his averageness.

    We’ve had enough, the electorate has finally grown tired of his shrill squeaking and now want rid of him.

    Come here and rejoice, or not, but don’t try and insult us with your superior ‘intelligence’ while we are having such a great time watching the death throes of this geriatric rodent.

  6. Good to see Hussey get some time in the middle. I was beginning to think that his spot might be at risk due to him getting out of form because he wasn’t getting any batting time. His average is starting to slip- only 85.6 now!

  14. Yep Col 46, you are right. Howard is an erudite, interesting, humble, compassionate and fundamentally likeable guy with rubbish policies.

  15. [Check out the picture of Howard and the woman who fell over. Looks almost as though he just decked her, and he’s now telling her off.]

    Curiously, he told her off using the word “sorry”.

  21. Col-I woulndt say Im consumed with hatred for the Tories-its something much much worse. And this ‘play the ball not the man’ stuff give me a break.All politics is personal.

  23. Howard to decked woman: “I’m sorry that it happened. But that’s not an apology”.

    Or: “We will dcide who comes to Penrith Plaza, and the circumstances under which they come”.

    Or: “If it’s any consolation, I can offer you a week’s unpaid grandparents’ leave”.

    Or: “Amanda! I thought you were still it Italy”

  24. Posted this earlier today but it’s worth repeating on this thread.

    This is the third telephone poll Morgan has done since mid october and all of them have the ALP primary at 44 to 45%. The much larger face to face polls on the other hand have consistently shown Labor’s primary at 47%+. Morgan himself has said in the past that his telephone polls tend to understate the ALP vote and this seems to be further evidence of that.

    So all in all, I believe there is reason for optimism from these figures, even if Morgan is not our favourite pollster.

  25. My feisty little Chinese wife having only these past few years been coached in politics was livid at Latham and asks how could such a person expect to be PM. Anyway, Latham has made himself irrelevant to the community having already declared his position as chief ALP hater.

    Someone noted in the other thread that the ALP had an asset in the blogosphere if it knew how to use it. This was my contention also the other day. The best way to get a message heard is if it comes from family and friends – not advertising or TV. Thus the idea of say a person emailing a short message/alert etc to 6 people and asking them to do the same and so on quite quickly covers a very large segment of Australia.

    It appears in the polls that the LNP have reached peak primary from the minor parties and the only way they can advance now is to take it off the ALP. The last 5 Morgans however show that primary to be made of concrete.

    I’m waiting/hoping for a interest rate bounce of a fraction.

  26. Lib MHR’s interviewing for exciting new careers.

    javascript:window.open(‘http://media.news.com.au/multimedia/mediaplayer/index.html?id=561’, ‘_blank’, ‘width=760,height=650’); void(0);

  27. I knew it was only a matter of time before Latham threw his two bobs worth into the election. His jealousy of Rudd must be excrutiating.

    Do you feel better after your little spray Mark? He will probably be miserable and angry for the rest of his life. I think back 47/45. God bless McLelland!

  28. There was an old polster named Roy,
    Whos inflated predictions brought joy,
    His samples were small,
    But howard will fall,
    And their conservative vote we’ll destroy.

  30. Caption: “Look, I may not be able to keep the interest rates down, but you Labor voters are a different matter”

  32. The real poll comes out tomorrow (ACN) I believe.

    I reckon it could well turn out to be the most important poll in the entire election cycle. I’m happy to take 55/45.

  33. [I reckon it could well turn out to be the most important poll in the entire election cycle. I’m happy to take 55/45.]

    Last night Edward StJohn said it will be 55/45. His reputation depends on that being the result.

    Apparently a Galaxy of Wentworth has Turnbull behind. That will possibly be released on Sunday, like the Bennelong poll last Sunday (but leaked on Friday night’s Lateline).

  34. Yes Kina and the same people who elected Latham as their leader are still there in the party. Now that should scare a number of you.

  36. As for Latham, here is a personal story why I don’t think he could have never won the last election. I used to live in Latham St, and it was amazing how many people didn’t even know how to spell it, even during the election. How could anyone expect to win if the public doesn’t even know how to spell your last name?

  38. 73 Antonio, ripper! Nearly fell out of my seat.

    Col, you sook, we will decide who gets smacked on this blog and the manner in which we smack them.

    48 Derek Corbett, nice phantom editorial, but seriously Uncy Rupe doesn’t back losers, so at what stage do you think The Sun God will get behind Kev? Oh the joy of reading Shamaham, Janet and Glug Glug Milne when he changes the script for them!

  43. Union offers condom to stop Work Choices
    The condoms are contained in a cardboard wrapper with slogans such as: “This election, don’t let lil’ Johnny slide back in!”

    Obviously designed to appeal to Generation Sex

  48. “84
    Thommo Says:
    November 9th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
    Yes Kina and the same people who elected Latham as their leader are still there in the party. Now that should scare a number of you.”

    Just wait and see, if Howard loses this election, the Liberal party factions will break out in a show of self destruction. The ultra-right faction, currently hidden dark corners, which has the party by the throat will either make them unelectable for a decade or be ‘excised’ like a melanoma.

  49. How about some some debate about possible definitions for Possums new addition to the Australian language:

    “Shanahanian”

    How about:

    a) an act of seemingly impossible statistical gymnastics

    b) the ability to pick out tiny shreds of supporting evidence while ignoring the overwhelming majority of contrary evidence

    Anyone care to add any further definitions to our lexicon?

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