Reuters poll trend: 54.8-45.2

Reuters’ fortnightly labour-saving device, Poll Trend, shows the two-party gap narrowing to 54.8-45.2 from 56.2-43.8 last time out. This is achieved by aggregating results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen and “smoothing volatility by using a five-term Henderson moving average”. Labor’s primary vote is down from 48.3 per cent to 47.8 per cent, with the Coalition up from 39.5 per cent to 40.8 per cent. A weekly breakdown shows that almost all of this movement came in the week before last.

UPDATE: Surprising news from SportingBet: “punters have flocked to the Coalition since this morning’s rate rise with 96% of money bet with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, going to the Coalition since the Reserve Bank’s announcement was made”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

658 comments on “Reuters poll trend: 54.8-45.2”

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  3. Ross Gittens, always tells it the way it is.

    The treasurer is mainly pretence

    t’s clear from the way Howard and Costello have had to change their tune during the course of this campaign that, far from being able to influence interest rates, they didn’t even see this rise coming. As long ago as August, the Reserve Bank governor, Glenn Stevens, warned that if the consumer price index figures due on October 24 revealed a continued build-up of inflation pressure, he would have little choice but to raise rates, even if an election campaign were in progress at the time.

    So Howard could have called the election well before yesterday’s meeting of the Reserve Bank board, but he didn’t bother. That may go down as one of the great miscalculations of modern politics.

    Rather, he chose a campaign slogan, Go for Growth, that’s now proved embarrassingly inappropriate and has had to be ditched. He wanted to claim the credit for the economy’s rapid growth and promise that under the Libs it could continue indefinitely, leading us back to full employment.

    Whoops. It’s the rapid growth that’s making the Reserve so nervous about inflation and will have prompted it to raise interest rates twice in the past three months. Its objective is clear: to slow the rate of growth and thereby ease inflation pressure.

    A fortnight ago Howard and Costello were claiming the inflation rate was at its lowest in almost nine years. Now they say there’s a lot of inflation in the system so only they can be trusted to manage this “more challenging and difficult economic outlook”.

    Will the punters fall for this two elections in a row? I doubt it.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-treasurer-is-mainly-pretence/2007/11/06/1194329223119.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

    Costello is a fraud!

  4. OMG look at the time. Deadline tomorrow. I’m unplugging my modem now and getting Mrs Crispy to hide it somewhere clever until the morning. G’night all.

  6. http://pulse.ninemsn.com.au/forecast/

    The Pulse survey is now showing Labor winning 19 seats, but two of those are Wentworth and Bennelong.

    There are 12 seats listed as “Too Close to Call”. So this is another poll that suggests the result will either be a close Labor win, or a Labor landslide.

    Samples are now up to 900+ for most seats, i.e. margins of error of 3.5% or less.

    But it all depends on how good their weighting scheme is.

    Labor are wasting some huge swings in seats they already hold, especially in Victoria.

  7. Lordy me, the LNP are absolutely gorn, mate, gorn. Have never seen such a total meltdown of a political party in my entire life, and I’m an old bastard. It couldn’t happen to a more deserving group of self serving, narcisstic, incompetent bastards ever in Australian political history.

  8. I don’t suppose there is any value in Labor doing a day or two on COSTELLO as your next [unelected] PM if you want him on your TV for the next 3 years ? Na, better to focus on WORSTCHOICES (IR) and toss some more money/messages at the mothers looking for childcare and education stuff now, oh and something substantial for the grey voters apparently yet to be detached from JWH in Victoria and WA.

  11. Mr Squiggle,

    “I think only 7:30 report carried it, so it may have been missed, but essentially the RBA statement today said wage pressures had been contained, despite other inflationary pressures.
    ”

    That’s the whole point. Costs are going up, people are working longer and more unsociable hours and wages don’t go up? The great unwashed feel they are carrying the can for the wealthy. And they’d be right!

  13. Re interest rates it seems the great “wedger” has wedged himself.

    To say that the interest rate rise is evidence of a good economy is plausible if not for the commitment to keep rates at record lows. There’s a major contradiction there.

    The Libs are all over the place on this.

    If you want to claim responsibility for the good news you can’t avoid the bad.

  15. SportingBet

    Tuesday, 06 November

    Labor has won both weeks two and three of the election campaign convincingly. That is the verdict from punters betting with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia.

    Sportingbet Australia CEO, Michael Sullivan today revealed that all the money had been for Labor since the end of the first week of the campaign.

    “The Coalition got an ‘election bounce’ after it called the election with 70% of bets in the first week going to the Coalition,” he said

    “But it was short lived and betting has been all Labor since then, with 61% of bets going to Labor in week two and 64% in week three.

    “Labor goes into week four of the campaign with a wind in their sail and well ahead in the betting markets, the polls and every other indicator going around.

    “And I’ve been running betting markets on elections for twenty years now and I’ve never seen either Party come from this far behind in the odds to win,” said Sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan.

    Week 1 (bets) Week 2 (bets) Week 3 (bets)
    Labor 30% 61% 64%
    Coalition 70% 39% 36%

  16. There were two 15-second Labor interest rates ads during the first ad break on the Channel Nine News in Perth, and one 30-second Coalition interest rates ad during the second. On Channel Ten, the 15-second Labor ad ran in the second break and the 30-second Coalition ad ran in the third. You might be surprised to learn that the Channel Nine news ordered its stories as follows:

    0.33 Dante Arthur sentencing
    5.50 Prison escape
    7.33 Maori-Aborigines street brawl
    9.30 Ben Cousins back from US
    10.53 Interest rates
    14.44 Outro to ad break

  17. Swan on lateline zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!

    Worse than Andrew Robb.

    Will Downer was on last night that is why Swan is on tonight the Libs didnt chicken out mate you’re dreaming.

  19. Will Labors’ policies make housing more affordable?
    Wayne Swan on Lateline telling us what Labor will do. Simple answer we will tinker at the edges and do nothing.
    Other than workchoices and Climate Change there are few other differences between the parties.
    And peak oil is approaching and both parties are massively spending on roads. The future these people are dills.

  22. Agree LaborVoter. A wise man once said “Noone ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people”. And re Rupert I heard him on radio today saying he wouldn’t be intervening or commenting on the Australian election.

  24. Kina at 449,

    My Mrs is Chinese too, and tho she has no interest in politics as she has never known democracy, she does love seeing and hearing Rudd kick it in Chinese.

    You can’t tell me that Bennelong is safe for the Rat, cos if the Chinese/Asians there, the whole 17% of them, are anything like my Mrs (couldnt care less about politics but see a white guy who has taken time to learn their language) then Maxine is the next member for Bennelong

  25. Whats on tommorrow, oh yeah the great GAFFEGATE DEBATE..Both Garrett and Turnbull will be quickly dispatched to their respective caves thereafter and little more will be said about climate change-environment issues until election day.

    So, what will Rudd do to overcome his apparent electioneering fatigue and get the ‘gossip’ away from economic security and onto his trump cards ? I agree that more $$$$$ promises will not do it. Rudd has got this far by NOT scaring the horses.

  26. 471
    Glen Says:
    November 7th, 2007 at 10:51 pm

    Jones didn’t say that Will he just said Swan was the guest for tonight.

    Glen, he said the Treasurer and Finance Minister were asked to appear and they refused.

  30. Glen at 471

    Selective hearing from you I think. Jones said that he wanted a debate over interest rates but both Costello and Mincin declined to attend. Abbott is running late …

  31. [Jones didn’t say that Will he just said Swan was the guest for tonight.]

    Yeah, but the Liberals are gutless, it goes without saying. Why else would they say inflation is an unavoidable consequence of a growing economy?

  33. The way Tony Jones is attacking Swan, you would think Labour has been running the country for 11 years.

    Is Tony a JWH attack dog?, he has tried to wedge Swan about ten times, Swan has avoided everyone.

  36. [Selective hearing from you I think. Jones said that he wanted a debate over interest rates but both Costello and Mincin declined to attend. Abbott is running late …]

    And Howard is busy being told the new interest rate by Tracy Grimshaw.

  39. I know this is completely off topic & would be better posted elsewhere in a technical forum, but if anyone has been using RSS Feeders for a while & wouldn’t mind sharing what they use, I’d be most grateful.

  45. I love people who think as far as ten minutes ahead.
    Meanwhile tax breaks for rich through negative gearing continue causing people with nothing to struggle and what are our governments going to do about the wealthy who can afford to negative gear provide crumbs to people entering the market. What next.

  47. Still why would you want to give Swan any credibility by appearing on Lateline with him, Cossie and Howie were right not to give the Rooster the light of day. If Jones wanted a debate on interest rates he should have had it last week not the day of the rise of course they are not going to want to go on Lateline to get belted by Red Jones.

    I saw the intro just not the intro of the Swan interview, i stand corrected.

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