Reuters’ fortnightly labour-saving device, Poll Trend, shows the two-party gap narrowing to 54.8-45.2 from 56.2-43.8 last time out. This is achieved by aggregating results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen and “smoothing volatility by using a five-term Henderson moving average”. Labor’s primary vote is down from 48.3 per cent to 47.8 per cent, with the Coalition up from 39.5 per cent to 40.8 per cent. A weekly breakdown shows that almost all of this movement came in the week before last.
UPDATE: Surprising news from SportingBet: “punters have flocked to the Coalition since this morning’s rate rise with 96% of money bet with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, going to the Coalition since the Reserve Bank’s announcement was made”.
From Newspoll TPP aggregate Oct 26-28 & Nov 2-4, 2007
National 54/46 swing 6.7%
NSW 54/46 swing 5.9%
Vic 55/45 swing 6.0%
Qld 54/46 swing 14%
SA 58/42 swing 14%
WA 50/50 swing 5.4%
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-8nov.pdf
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Let It End Says:
November 8th, 2007 at 2:25 am
Oh my God, you need to check out the State by State Newspoll aggregation, it clearly shows WA is propping up the 53/47 figure for LNP. All other states is a lib wipeout.
Those numbers confirm what my Lib staffer mate told me the other week (posted on a thread somewhere here, tho I’ll never find it now) – especially in SA.
I don’t see any way they can get out of this now. I think it’s over.
And how could we let such calamitous results for HMAS Howie pass without the Shameahan spin. Seriously, this guy makes Glen and his ear wax sound plausible.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22721868-5014046,00.html
Election Night coverage line-ups announced.
[SATIRIST Charles Firth, game-show host Andrew O’Keefe and Sunrise presenters David Koch and Melissa Doyle have been roped in by the Seven and Nine networks in a bid to make their election night coverage entertaining for viewers.
However, both networks stress they are taking the November 24 poll “extremely seriously” – while attempting to cast each other’s plans in a frivolous light.
Seven’s first commercial-free, full-night election coverage in about 20 years (to be called Your Call 07: Election Night Done Right) will be hosted from the Canberra tallyroom by Koch, Doyle and Deal Or No Deal host O’Keefe.
Seven’s executive producer of news and current affairs, Mark Llewellyn, described the line-up as “people who are entertaining but who have absolute cred”.
“They are people who communicate with the audience very, very well,” Llewellyn said. “We’re not looking to plant ersatz entertainers into the coverage, as others might be.” ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22721793-30540,00.html
Koch, Doyle and O’Keefe?? Is that some kind of joke?
[Koch, Doyle and O’Keefe?? Is that some kind of joke?]
Nope, it’s serious – they’re even running the ads.
I’m surprised they’re not doing the National Election Night Bingo Game. 🙂
Higgins – Johnny wasn’t here, then he was here, now I’m not too sure.
Piping Shrike
Like the other posters here I’m an admirer of your blogs. I think your criticisms of Labor’s campaign are pretty spot on. Labor has played a very tightly disciplined game of lock-step with Howard.
The strength is that it has denied Howard opportunities for a wedge or a dog whistle – certainly that was the case with the ‘save the children’ strategy, the Haneef arrest, even the Mersey Hospital. Given the perception of Howard as dominating the media, it was successful in nullifying Howard from diversions.
The weakness is that it reduces the extent of criticism of Howard’s agenda, and diminishes Labor’s efforts to establish a new direction.
I know that you don’t accept IR/Workchoices as so dominant in the campaign. To the point that it’s not on everyone’s lips, I’d agree. But I’d also agree with the McKerras thesis that springing it on us without notice was a serious breach of trust. The ‘no argument’ approach to rushing it through compounded that impression. It was a turning point in the way Howard was viewed. After that, anything he said or did was viewed for the political motives behind it.
And oddly enough, that was pretty well the correct perception. Everything he does is for the political implications – hence his rush to embrace nuclear energy as a belated attempt to catch up on climate change, while still trying a wedge.
So I’d say Workchoices led to that change in belief about Howard.
On another matter, assuming from your pen-name you’re a South Aussie, how do you think Nicole Cornes is going in Boothby? My impression, from Phil Robins occasional posts is that, despite the bagging she’s getting from MSM and political insiders, she’s actually faring quite well with voters at large.