Reuters poll trend: 54.8-45.2

Reuters’ fortnightly labour-saving device, Poll Trend, shows the two-party gap narrowing to 54.8-45.2 from 56.2-43.8 last time out. This is achieved by aggregating results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen and “smoothing volatility by using a five-term Henderson moving average”. Labor’s primary vote is down from 48.3 per cent to 47.8 per cent, with the Coalition up from 39.5 per cent to 40.8 per cent. A weekly breakdown shows that almost all of this movement came in the week before last.

UPDATE: Surprising news from SportingBet: “punters have flocked to the Coalition since this morning’s rate rise with 96% of money bet with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, going to the Coalition since the Reserve Bank’s announcement was made”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

658 comments on “Reuters poll trend: 54.8-45.2”

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  5. I often read but don’t usually contribute, but does anyone else think that it’s time for Labor to follow through with the big guns? I’m getting nervous!

    Or is the buffer so big not to matter?

    Or are they concentrating their resources in the marginal seats?

    It would be good for the troops to see some sign of coordinated activity.

    On another topic, did Julia flatten Shreck today?

  6. Chris #5,

    Yes, yes she did. Showed the pres gallery the sh**e that is their IR policy, and then rubbed his face in it, without getting too personal. Pure, solid gold.

  8. I watched about half the debate, and altho Gillard won, the debate will have no effect on anything. No king hits there.

    Hockey did better than I expected too.

  10. The Australian Government is thinking about setting up a consultation blog/forum to give the public a chance to debate public policy.

    If you want to help shape the form this blog will take then have your say here:

    http://www.openforum.com.au/Survey

    It only takes a couple of minutes and could help lead to something really worthwhile. Thanks.

  11. Well, if this is the “Narrowing” that the Coalition was looking for, a 6 month election campaign might have got them close to winning…

  12. Chris @ #5

    Don’t forget ALP launches campaign on 14th – boof, boof, coordinated punch to the collective coalition noggin.

    Well let’s hope anyway

  14. [punters have flocked to the Coalition since this morning’s rate rise with 96% of money bet with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, going to the Coalition since the Reserve Bank’s announcement was made]

    Boy there are some dumb punters out there

  16. I reckon the bookies would love to talk up a coalition win right now. All those bets that they won’t have to pay out on!

    Cheers

    Rod

  17. Of course Labor voters are not betting – they are trying to figure out how to feed the kids for two days on a can of baked beans. 🙁

  19. Someone else mentioned that there was one guy who made at $10,000 bet. So that would skew the percentages a fair amount I imagine!!

  21. It just concerns me that the idea of any differentiation with the Libs is being increasingly obscured ie the me-too thing is now accepted as fact.

    Kitt @12 Do we really expect a lot of big new ideas to come out? That would seem to fly in the face of the Rudd’s equivalent of the small target.

    I live in Canberra and the idea of a razor gang got a big run here (unsurprisingly) this morning. Howard has been a prize hypocrite on the idea of small government, though I’m not sure his supporters acknowledge it

  22. So more punters are betting on the coalition to win due to the interest rate increase, believing that now the economy is front and centre – which is an issue favoring the Libs. They should stop taking themselves, the Australian and Newspoll so seriously.

    This is the interest rate that broke the camel’s back ( the coalition’s economic credibility), and with it Howard’s house of cards will fall – consigning the Libs to a decade of purgatory in opposition.
    Aesop has spoken…..

  24. So it seems that there has been a narrowing, despite Possum’s belief that they generally don’t happen. Mercifully for this ALP supporter the narrowing has not been that significant.

    But with the interest rate rise maybe the last 3 weeks will see the older margin restored, and then 40 seats change hands on election night. Fingers crossed…

  26. [So it seems that there has been a narrowing, despite Possum’s belief that they generally don’t happen. Mercifully for this ALP supporter the narrowing has not been that significant. ]

    Well, we don’t find out if there was a narrowing until election day when we get the final score.

  28. 22 [So more punters are betting on the coalition to win due to the interest rate increase, believing that now the economy is front and centre – which is an issue favoring the Libs.]

    Way too stupid to believe but maybe they took Costello’s:

    rising interest rates = great economic management, seriously. They will be in for a rude shock come election night.

  29. Portlandbet currently 77-71-2.

    Does anyone know if any of the big agencies run margin betting. Just like the footy ie. Coalition +11.5 seats @ $1.95 for example.

  31. John, I think Possum contends that a narrowing is not a fait accompli, as some commentators were asserting. Endlessly. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn’t. And Showson is right, we could be back to 55/45 by this time next week and beyond.

  32. Yes, the “rising rates = return the experienced economic manager” formula has too many twists in it to be effective. A plausible enough thought for those close to politics (and therefore already committed), but for those who the coalition hopes are not engaged yet, the formula is “blame the govt for the rate rise becuase they said they were responsible for the falls”.

  33. [Yes, the “rising rates = return the experienced economic manager” formula has too many twists in it to be effective. ]

    It implies that their entire election campaign now has a new theme – “Go For Growth, and see interest rates rise because of the growth”

    Or how about “Go For Growth (Maybe)”

  38. We are however calling Parramatta, Lindsay, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Page, La Trobe, Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert, Leichhardt, Kingston, Wakefield, Makin, Bass, Braddon and Solomon (that’s 17), with at least another ten in play. We’ll let you keep Kooyong for now.

  39. Bookmakers need to balance there book. So that whoever wins they win. So by saying that nearly bet is now for the libs party and by the way you can still get 3.50 for every dollar bet. (fantastic odds in a two horse race as long as one neddie is not already rooted). They, the bookmakers are just wanting people to back the lib party, because even with labour only paying around 1.35 for a dollar bet enough people/money are backing labour at that price that the bookies face a loss unless they can get more people to back and lose money on the libs.

  42. I see The Age is reporting on the rate rises that:

    “Labor’s treasury spokesman Wayne Swan said the Federal Government had ignored 20 central bank warnings in the past three years that a skilled labour shortage was contributing to the economy overheating.

    “The Government has been inactive and complacent about skills shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks that are putting upwards pressure on inflation,” he said.

    That’s the real story that the ALP should stick to. This points to the LNP’s “management of the economy” looking to the financial markets, but ignoring the real economy.

  45. “Surprising news from SportingBet: ‘punters have flocked to the Coalition since this morning’s rate rise with 96% of money bet with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, going to the Coalition since the Reserve Bank’s announcement was made’ “.

    Well how come the odds in Sportingbet are still the same as yesterday (ALP $1.32, Coalition $3.30)? Probably Uncle Rupert putting on a $1m bet for his mate the Rodent.

  46. I’m calling Cook. I didn’t move there for nothing.

    Labor will shorten again once the first Opinion poll is published showing labor’s lead increasing. Punters are simply putting some $$’s on the uncertainty, not the result.

  48. Stephen T:
    I think Julia Gillard summary to the Press Club debate annihilated Shrek. He looked like death warmed up. She is extremely competent. Rudd has to use her more. I bet myself the media would run with the intro and sure enough have a look at the GG. ABC radio did the same thing. It is so bloody sexist. The opposition has got to get over pussy footing around and take charge just as Gillard did today. It is so biased it is bloody shitty. Her summary was a king hit and somehow needs to get decent exposure.

  49. I also know well-off labor types who’ve put some reddies on LNP on the basis that if the neo-fascists get back in, they’ll win enough to throw a really good wake

  50. “I reckon the bookies would love to talk up a coalition win right now”

    Yep.

    Good call Rod.

    Bookies are a little like horse trainers. It’s not what they say, it’s what they do. Hmm bit like the liberal party as well.

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