Reuters’ fortnightly labour-saving device, Poll Trend, shows the two-party gap narrowing to 54.8-45.2 from 56.2-43.8 last time out. This is achieved by aggregating results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen and “smoothing volatility by using a five-term Henderson moving average”. Labor’s primary vote is down from 48.3 per cent to 47.8 per cent, with the Coalition up from 39.5 per cent to 40.8 per cent. A weekly breakdown shows that almost all of this movement came in the week before last.
UPDATE: Surprising news from SportingBet: “punters have flocked to the Coalition since this morning’s rate rise with 96% of money bet with Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, going to the Coalition since the Reserve Bank’s announcement was made”.
Labor, failure, recession, unemployment, gloom
Liberal, success, boom time, job, happiness
You’ve gotta give it to Howard when it comes to forward planning; Ah, we are the party of GO FOR GROWTH. Crash Boom!! Ooops, inflation eh! Oh, OK, we are now the party for GO FOR SHRINK lol. Not even Maxwell Smart could sell that one.
God knows what they are going to trot out at the campaign launch, how many simultaneous campaigns are they actually running.
My question is this, if they can’t even plan a 6 week campaign without being shown up for fools how on earth can they be deemed capable of planning a 3 year term for the country.
Regarding Lateline and Tony Jones’ treatment of Swan, its an easy mistake to make (thinking labor are running the country). After all, Howard gave up governing straight after the budget at the start of the phoney campaign months ago.
Glen, there isn’t much point trying to convince us that Howard and Costello didn’t avoid Lateline. After all, if I were to promise you that I would vote Liberal it would be a “non-core voting intention”. You need to convince all the punters out there who were watching. They aren’t all deaf.
[Still why would you want to give Swan any credibility by appearing on Lateline with him, Cossie and Howie were right not to give the Rooster the light of day. ]
Costello and Howard have no economic credibility left because they think inflation and interest rate increases are good.
@501 LOL
I am going to bed….cancer medication sending me to sleep.
Goodnight all, catch up tomorrow
445
Possum Comitatus
Not a chance, oh glorious marsupial. It just doesn’t work that way. I’m sure the likes of Glenn Milne, Dennis Shanahan and in particular Greg Sheridan will have nice fluffy omelettes sprouting from their broken-capilliaried facades, but so did Alan Ramsey after the Latham debacle, and he’s still doing what he does. Shanahan might have his chubby little buttocks slightly paddled, but the press secretary to the Less Popular Costello will battle on and Sheridan will have to gulp back the bile once Hillary takes over the land of the free.
The commentators we all love to hate are paid to comment, and they will continue to do so. Janet and her pals will probably get the boot from the ABC board but not until the next round of appointments. Kevin07 will not want to look vindictive. As Old Bill was wont to opine, the quality of mercy is not strained. It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven (oh Kevin!).
I still think a lot of lefties pay far too much attention to the naughty kiddies from the GG. I rarely read it until hooking up with this site, and I’m not Nigel there.
Glen 497 – Refusing to appear with Swan is a mistake. It shouldn’t be about Swan. It’s disrespect for voters.
Re RSS Feed Readers – Thanks Possum, sondeo
ShowsOn stop spreading lies find proof of Howard and Costello saying high inflation is good and interest rate rises are good and ill eat my hate, good luck mate!
Seriously you trash me for lies and yet you have done the same.
480
Dave55 Says:
November 7th, 2007 at 10:54 pm
Glen at 471
Selective hearing from you I think. Jones said that he wanted a debate over interest rates but both Costello and Mincin declined to attend.
Methinks that polling Textor commissioned on the interest rate knee jerk effect in the electorate tonight has clearly hurt JWH and they are running as fast as they can away from that subject, thank you very much. Next…..Who do you trust to…to… oops too late.
Bedtime for Bluebottle.
Marky,
There’s two problems with removing negative gearing:
(1) Proposing it from opposition will guarantee that they stay in opposition
(2) Abolishing it in government will guarantee that the government quickly becomes the opposition at the first available opportunity.
There’s ways that you can grandfather out negative gearing and reapply it to actually encourage an increase in the supply of housing and probably not be molested by the electorate in the process, but that’s a long topic not really suited to all things PollBludgerish.
But you cant expect anything about it to happen in an election campaign.
voterboy over are you out there? If so anu insider news from your Lib staffer?
[ShowsOn stop spreading lies find proof of Howard and Costello saying high inflation is good and interest rate rises are good and ill eat my hate, good luck mate!]
Costello said it today! Do you ready ANYTHING? Costello said inflation was an inevitable product of a growing economy.
Face facts Glen, you are supporting a team of economic dunces.
459 It’s time, from memory the Monthly is around a few years old. It’s leftleaning and it’s some rich guy’s pastime. They were the only ones who had the guts to publish the Wendi Deng piece.
Dazzamack @ 474, from my straw poll of all in my Asian circle, everyone is impressed with Rudd. Told them that anyone who can speak Mandarin has my vote.
Glen,
If lying offends you, you must be quite disgusted with the Prime Minister by now?
Winston is right – today was national sorry day for Howard, and nothing else. No new policy, no interview, no appearance on Lateline. The Rat is in the bunker. Glen, if you are offered any cordial to drink in the next few days, I’d decline.
Glen why are bankruptcies at record highs under the Howard Government? I thought you said they were good economic managers.
Chinese people are for hard work and prosperity
Labor is for laziness and the dole
[Chinese people are for hard work and prosperity
Labor is for laziness and the dole]
Careful, Glen hates communists.
ninemsn’s Passion Pulse has Lord Smirk-a-lot’s seat in doubt! Oh juicy manna from heaven. Picking up an 8.3% swing to ALP from around 900 votes.
Psephy people, can that really worth hoping for? Anyone been keeping an eye on Higgins? And are these Passion Pulse polls worth the html they’re written on?
[Psephy people, can that really worth hoping for? Anyone been keeping an eye on Higgins? And are these Passion Pulse polls worth the html they’re written on?]
I don’t think Higgins is in trouble.
Last week the Passion Pulse poll had about 300 – 400 votes per seat, and the seats it suggested were switching or in doubt were suprisingly likely candidates.
This week there are more than double the amount of votes per seat, but some of the seats are a bit strange. Higgins is probably the best examples of that.
It seems to me some vote stacking has gone on that the Pulse weighting doesn’t seem ot of accounted for.
I agree totally. Labor should do something about it in government. If Howard and Kennett can lie Labor should also.
I think on Negative Gearing Labor should reduce the amount of tax break provided and slowing decrease the amount of there on.
But of course it will not do that. NO GUTS.
It is gutless and to worried about its mates.
In 1988 it scraped negative gearing and then reintroduced it and look what happened it caused a bad recession in 1990-91. Again we heading down that same route but only this time it will be much worse.
[ShowsOn stop spreading lies find proof ]
LOL, funniest thing I’ve read, when have you ever done that!!
[LOL, funniest thing I’ve read, when have you ever done that!!]
Be fair, Glen is writing a Ph.D. on ear wax, he has no time with “facts” unrelated to ear wax.
522 Don’t forget the Housing market took off after Howard cut the Capital gains tax.
Betamax: Passion Pulse had my seat going to green at one stage and i live in a semi-marginal liberal seat, i think it is the polling group with the most credibility????.. 😉
last time i looked costello was at $1.04… the labor candiate would be paying a good return… so worth a big punt if you believe that polling group
Possum 512
There are a host of things Government can do about housing affordability if they have the guts. But as you say, it won’t happen in this election campaign.
One simple option is to reduce the tax breaks for investors in high-priced housing and give more to lower priced housing. You don’t have to eliminate negative gearing – just structure it to encourage investment where it will produce the most public benefit.
[Be fair, Glen is writing a Ph.D. on ear wax, he has no time with “facts” unrelated to ear wax]
Problem is Glen appears to have little else between his ears other than wax.
Ms Twain,
With the sole purpose of The Oz being influence, it’s key problem is that it’s losing it. Not only in a specific political way, but a general way. It still reaches the same demographic of eyeballs, but its problem seems to be that those eyeballs are continuing to become more promiscuous, and the attempts by The Oz thus far to adapt are not working, in many respects they’re all a bit pathetic.
That’s not a good look for a flagship.
I would have thought a new government would have been the perfect time to try and address that before it becomes a bit more terminal.It’s not like Rupert hasn’t done it before elsewhere around the planet.
That whole Overington stirring the pot thing is a case in point, that type of nonsense might generate a few more eyeballs and revenue in the short term, but it eats away at the foundations of the actual purpose and role of the brand, and they undermine their own readership demographic in the process.
It’s all a bit silly really.
The Monthly is a great read, despite the title sounding like a young lady’s personal issues. They published the Richard Flanagan story about Gunns Ltd that got Malcolm Turnbull’s former friend so hot under the collar. If you can get your hands on it, read it. You’ll never look at either side of politics the same way again.
Also published the oh so earnest Wendi Deng piece that Lindsay Voter mentioned but the great joy is the odd Robert Manne story (on the odd occasion he is on his game) but also probably the most lyrically skillful journalist working in Australia today, Gideon Haigh. Unfortunately, he mainly writes about cricket or big business, so if your interests don’t tend that way you will miss out. And if you are not interested in those two topics, you’re unOrstraylian.
ShowsOn you have lost all credibility you said you had clear evidence of Howard and Costello saying “Interest rate rises are good and i like them happening and i like high inflation it is good for our economy”.
They never said that and that just shows how you are full of yourself you are.
[Betamax: Passion Pulse had my seat going to green at one stage and i live in a semi-marginal liberal seat, i think it is the polling group with the most credibility????.. ]
How long ago was that? How many votes had there been made for your seat?
There are no seats suggesting Greens will win now. The “Seats Under Threat” list is astonishingly reasonable in its prediction:
http://pulse.ninemsn.com.au/forecast/
Looks like the Chinese have got the US by the short and curlies.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/dollar-slides-to-new-record-low-against-euro/20071107-18n4.html
Average Wednesday night demographic breakdown during FTA 8.30 – 9.30 pm
Ten – 1.481,000 ( 56.3% 18 – 49 ) & 58.0% of 16 -39
Nine – 1.098,000 ( 22.7% 18 -49 ) 52.2% over 50 +
Seven – 681,000 ( 21.0% 18 – 49 ) 19.3% over 50 +
ALP spend well during HOUSE.
Totally agree Steve, along with all the handouts on health, education and childcare and the tax cuts. The rich have done very well and look what will happen they will generally be immune whilst yet again working people and middle classes will feel the brunt.
Crispy (405) I don’t think people mind too much about lying, it is the point behind it that is important. Labor has tried making a deal of Howard lying in the past (overboard, WMDs etc.) and it has not worked.
By the way the main issue on interest rates in 2004 as I remember it, was not on keeping them at record lows, it was who do you trust to do so, Howard or Latham, and an important part of that was trust over the War on Terror, fact that has been air-brushed out of the rewriting of 2004.
Making it seem as though Howard is an IR demon makes him a conviction politician again, which is what he desparately wants (and why he started his campaign with his ‘love me or loathe me’ line). Even if it isunpopular, it is no matter, he has won elections on unpopular policies before (e.g. GST in ’98) in fact he rather likes it. Labor was making headway exposing Howard as the empty shell he is, now they are going into reverse.
Howard pushed the “Go For Growth” signs to the sides and had the Australian flag behind him instead.
Seems “Go For Growth” was a bad choice for an election slogan… akekekeke
MarkyMark,
Not only do we have a housing affordability crisis, we also have a rent affordability crisis. Getting rid of negative gearing, even in small staps, reduces the profitability of investing in housing. The result is an even worse rental crisis, with the lower classes suffering the most.
536 Shrike
Surely Howard won despite GST, not because of it.
If you are suggesting that lower wages and reduced conditions for workers will help Howard, I beg to differ (to put it politely).
[Howard pushed the “Go For Growth” signs to the sides and had the Australian flag behind him instead.]
He meant growth of interest rates.
538 Midnorthcoast
Easy more social housing.
Shrike @ 536 I half agree with you on lying – people only care about lies if they are lies they care about – sadly most of Australia seems to not care about non-core lies…
Maybe, on re-reading that, I do agree with you?
536 So where to from here TPS?
Centaur @ 513. No, I haven’t spoken to him for a couple of days. I’ll give him a call tomorrow once the papers are out. I’ll also do a ring around of some of our bankers to see what the feeling is, but as I’ve said in the past few days, no one I’ve spoken to was willing to give Howard a chance if rates went up.
I think people can be too “clever clever” on this stuff (which is, of course, Rudd’s Hawker-Britton fuelled euphemism for the cunning Howard). Even I can see (as a biased Labor supporter, but one who works in the banking industry) that there is an economic argument that higher interest rates do not necessarily equal a dud economy. Equally, I can see that interest rates are in the hands of the RBA. But even the most fiscally illiterate voters – indeed, especially the most fiscally illiterate voters – see that here we have two men who three years ago gave the impression that they could control rates, and who, now that things have turned out badly, are denying responsibility. They can also see (even if they don’t fully understand the economics behind it), that two weeks ago Costello said inflation wasn’t a problem, so vote for us, and now Howard is saying inflation is a problem, so vote for us.
Labor does need to master the economic arguments, true, but Howard’s latest wheeze indicates that he’s aiming to penetrate voters minds on a subterranean level (Labor can’t be trusted) because the economic arguments and logical arguments don’t add up in his favour. Labor therefore should now hammer these lines – these people will say anything to get elected, and John Howard and Peter Costello are trying to blackmail Australian working families into paying for their mistakes. That rate rise – that’s you paying for their mistakes. Accompany it with a photo of the smirk. Hammer that nail in…
Steve @ 533 – that is most interesting. US$1.47 = 1 Euro is quite astonishing, I’d have thought. At what point does it become a very big problem for the US?
Marky Marky, you are truly a fundamentalist . You’d rather have no pig than settle for half a pig.
Half a pig still provides you with a lot of sausages, my little green Trotskyite, no pig merely gives you the opportunity of sleeping in the sty.
Just listened to PM off the ABC web site. If the locals interviewed in Lindsay are anything to go by Howard is well and truly doomed – none of them were leting Howard off the hook on interest rates.
Two points about negative gearing –
1. Australia is unusual in the world in that, by contrast with the US for instance, there is no limit on the amount that can be deducted.
2. On the other hand, as marginal tax rates fall (for most people), the true tax incentives in negative gearing diminish correspondingly. I use the word “true” because the fact is little understood by a lot of punters who are into it, but not on the top marginal rate. They assume it must be a winner, when in reality they are increasingly reliant on capital gains, rather than the tax lurk, to make a decent dollar out of it.
Which all tends to emphasise, I guess, that we are in a property bubble. At least during the notorious Dutch tulip bubble, every man and his dog were growing tulips like crazy – unlike housing here.
Brian are you saying more government housing?
If so how will it be funded- 3 choices:
1) Reduce other programs – which ones?
2)Increase Tax – which one?
3)Increase Government debt.
Which one of these do you prefer?
ShowsOn…
I think Higgins is worth a small bet. 8.8% swing required. Probable national swing of around 6-7%. Add to that the proximity to safe labor seats. Quite possibly a negative swing on account of the sitting member. And throw in some volatility for good luck.
Ok, I’m giving it a 20% chance, but just think about it.
Costello ends up with a 2% margin. That’s gonna cause some strife 🙂
Costello ends up losing by 100 votes. I’m gonna get newscasted 😉