Galaxy Senate poll

As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month from 39 per cent to 33 per cent. The sample size was 1003; Family First and the Democrats were both on 2 per cent.

ALP LNP GRN
October 20/21 33 38 11
September 8/9 39 35 10
June 23/24 38 34 13
2004 Election 35.0 45.0 7.7

UPDATE: GetUp! press release here. Maddeningly, “other/don’t know” has been rolled into one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

707 comments on “Galaxy Senate poll”

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  9. Graeme (33)

    If you’re looking for articulate ALP senators, how about John Faulkner?
    Kate Lundy isn’t too bad either.
    LTEP – My prediction: ALP 78, LNP 70, Ind 2

  11. There’s gotta come a time when the msm actually whip up one of those campaigns of frenzy and indignation re the pork. We’ve got another 4 weeks to go for gods sake. The mind boggles at whats gonna be promised by the end of the campaign. Poor Kevs gonna be cleaning up for years after this….

  12. Ok, new competition kids, email me with the seats you think will change hands at the election, and I will keep a spreadsheet of the details. If you don’t mention a particular electorate, I assume you predict the status quo for that electorate. Winner is the one who most correctly predicts the changing seats, and wins bragging rights !

    For this purpose, I have included Macquarie as an ALP seat, and Parramatta as a LIB seat. Kennedy and New England are included as Independent seats, but Calare is included as a national seat. Basically its the classification as per Anthony’s ABC election page.

    I decided on email as it will save William’s bandwidth.

    matthew.sykes “at symbol” flinders.edu.au

  13. “34
    Jim Says:
    October 25th, 2007 at 8:14 am
    ps You may not know me.
    I am one of the many silent but frankly, amused, right-wingers who read this blog for our daily funnies. Bit like I used to read ‘Peanuts’ as a child.”

    Word on the strip, Silent Jim, says that many Lucy Van Pelt fans around here will be doing their darndest to help you touch base with your inner political masochist. Blogs like this abound with opportunistic schadenfreudists.

  14. I’m a political novice as far as the Senate is concerned so maybe the more enlightened here will be able to answer a couple questions.

    1.Will the major parties openly campaign for the Senate?

    The Greens openly do so but maybe I’m not looking in the right places as I haven’t seen any ALP or Lib Senate pamphlets as such.

    2.Do the majors hope/think people will follow the HTV cards on election day.?

    I never take a HTV anyway as I know who I’m going to vote for in the HoR and I vote Green in the Senate.

    3.Will the Coalition maintain its majority or will Ind or the Greens hold the BOP.?

  18. In a way I hope the Galaxy senate figures are right – although common sense tells me they probably aren’t. An obstructive opposition blocking the abolition of the work choices legislation would be just what Kevin Rudd needed to take the long handle to the senate and give it a good clean out.

    Roll on the double dissolution.

  21. The missing %ge in this poll would be people who haven’t focused on the Senate.

    Labor has long polled well under its Rep vote in the Senate.

    This poll has Libs down 7, Labor down 2, with 14% either for others/don’t know. Factor much of that 14% on a similar ratio to the committed votes in the poll, and add Greens, Dems and ALP as a combined ‘left’ vote and the results are on a par with Galaxy’s recent Reps poll. Probably a point or two better allowing for some FF/indep/micro prefs to Labor.

  22. Seems to be a real lull in political advertising on TV here in Adelaide. Would be interested to know what’s going on in other parts of the country.

  24. That’s it, the white flag is flying, held aloft by Greg Sheridan in today’s GG:

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22642864-7583,00.html

    He sprays everyone that ever disagreed with the white armband view of history, and then declares that Howard has lost the Culture War. Top of the list of fifth columnists is the ABC (of course!), but he doesn’t stop there, he even takes a swipe at Tim Flannery.

    When the rightwing commentariat starts burying Howard, even before the election, you just know you’re in for a fun show.

  25. No TV advertising in Melbourne either Triffid…looks like the major parties are saving their money for the last 2 weeks of the campaign…

  28. Triffid,

    Have not seen any ads on Newcastle TV for the past 3 nights. Not sure why. Glen may be right, a big assault could be planned soon.

    Still waiting for the anti-nuclear ads. Will play well in Hunter and Paterson.

    Have given Matthew my seat-by-seat tips by email see post #112. Looking forward to seeing everyone’s tips on the spreadsheet.

  29. On the subject of articulate Labor senators:
    – Penny Wong
    – John Faulkner
    – Trish Crossin
    – Claire Moore
    – Kate Lundy
    – Glenn Sterle

    Personally, I think their senators are better than their members.

  33. Matt D: 11 votes would probably mean a by-election do to a successful challenge over voting irregularities (ala the 95 QLD election and the Mundingburra electorate. I think Ken Davies won by 8 votes)

  35. Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor | October 25, 2007 – “THIS election campaign is far from over and John Howard could yet win. But it’s not likely. The most likely outcome is a substantial victory for Kevin Rudd.” Yep, they’re lining up now. Henderson and Lebovich will go to the election still believing the Libs have got it in the bag.

  36. chrispydog @ 124

    I’d agree that the Sheridan article is one of the funniest articles i’ve ever read. There were several laugh-out-loud moments (such as “the ABC worldview is stronger than ever” WTF does that even mean?). Poor Greg seems upset that the majority of academics disagree with his interpretation of Australian History. No mention of the fact that this may be because he’s wrong, rather than the fact that “it’s impossible to govern against elite opinion”….

    I recommend it highly to anyone feeling a bit down today.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22642864-7583,00.html

  37. Yes, Chrispy Dog @124. It is an extraordinary article. I agree we are in for a fun show. Bolt vs. Henderson and Sheridan vs. civilisation.

  38. Gary Bruce @ 135

    Not only is it amazing how many of the rusted on Liberals are calling it for Rudd, it’s even more amazing when Sheridan starts attacking Howard for losing the culture wars!

    This is the first time I’ve seen this in print, and no doubt we’ll be hearing a lot more of it after the battle when the historians start picking over the carcass of the Liberal party, but this is a very significant first draft of this argument.

    Oddly enough, he seems to be saying that Howard is losing because he didn’t hobble the ABC!

    When do these guys ever wake up? It’s not an ‘elite’ position to think that Howard has poisoned much public debate and we want to remove ourselves from the rectum of GWBush. Watching this meltdown in the GG is truly fascinating.

  43. Can someone kick out that fat ass Kim Carr im sure the ALP can find someone better to fill his well worn seat in the Senate…i am so seriously this guy puts Hockey to shame…

  45. Seat Predictions:
    Labor to gain:
    Parramatta
    Lindsay
    Dobell
    Eden Monaro
    Bennelong
    Wentworth
    Page
    Hughes(my bolter)
    Bass
    Braddon
    Solomon
    Stirling
    Hasluck
    Kingston
    Wakefield
    Makin
    Sturt(another bolter)
    La Trobe
    Corrangamite
    Goldstein(absolute bolter)
    Macmillan
    Bonner
    Moreton
    Blair
    Leichardt
    Herbert
    Ryan

  49. What makes you believe that Glen? Just put yourself in some objective shoes for once… imagine not everyone loves the Liberal Party… and think again.

  50. John Laws today attacked Alan Jones for bias, syaing if he is going to bring up the 17.5% rate under Keating he shouldve also mentioned the 22% when Howard was Treasurer, amazing how the worm has turned against Howard. Another media supporter deserting the sinking ship?

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