Galaxy Senate poll

As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month from 39 per cent to 33 per cent. The sample size was 1003; Family First and the Democrats were both on 2 per cent.

ALP LNP GRN
October 20/21 33 38 11
September 8/9 39 35 10
June 23/24 38 34 13
2004 Election 35.0 45.0 7.7

UPDATE: GetUp! press release here. Maddeningly, “other/don’t know” has been rolled into one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

707 comments on “Galaxy Senate poll”

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  1. I don’t care much about individual seats, but I will say that the blue-ribbon urban Lib heartland seats could well have shock results. Thus Higgins, Goldstein and Kooyong in Melb could all be in danger, as could Nth Sydney, Wentworth, Berowra and Bennelong in Sydney. Ryan could well be a definite gain for Labor. Mayo in SA is another potential pick-up (good riddance to bad rubbish, Alexander).

  4. I live in North Sydney and the response to the ALP camapign there has been phenomenal.

    The campaign workers who’ve been doing this for years say the reaction is unbelievable.

    Look at the pork Hockey’s announcing (still waiting for that RNS annoncement too)

    If the ALP win government I suspect the more normal groupings will re-assert at the next election (wet libs, etc). If they don’t, we’ll need a new conservative party, because the Libs will be finished.

  6. By around this time last week we’d had the leak that Morgan would show a significant move back to the Coalition.

    If we haven’t heard anything by the end of the day we can assume no change. If Galaxy is due tomorrow, we’ll know the result tonight if its good for the Coalition.

  7. South Australia’s Industrial Relations Commission slams Govt claims work choices generates jobs and productivity as totally false;

    WORK Choices has disadvantaged thousands of workers and failed to create new jobs, a report by South Australia’s Industrial Relations Commission says.

    It said there was no reliable evidence that the changes had increased productivity or flexibility and no evidence that they had generated increased employment opportunities.

    http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22645955-31037,00.html

    Another coalition ideological myth is unravelling.

  8. ALP = Australian Liberal Party

    Yup watch for the blue ribbon bolters for sure

    Its all topsy turvy

    Warringah to be a shock to close to call

    and Elvis to be spotted in Manly

  10. I looked at the portlanbet website this morning and counted that they now have Labor winning 14 coalition seats including Parramatta, but not counting Macquarie as a Labor gian. This is down from 19 when I checked soon before the election was called. The overall odds still overwhelmingly favour a Labor win though. However, Labor gaining 14 seats would most likely result in a hung parliament. I note that portlandbet does not appear to take bets on this particular outcome, only a win by one side or the other. Interesting…

  11. Paul K Says:

    [barbara Says:
    October 25th, 2007 at 10:23 am
    I want a number no-one has taken yet ]

    How about Liberals= ZERO seats?

    I’ve got that one already. Mine was 147 Labor + 3 independents. 😉

    I think it’s showing up in the list as 146 after I made a joke that Nicole Cornes wouldn’t win her seat after reports break that she is planning to vote for Howard ‘because he will keep interest rates at record lows’.

  14. Greg Sheridan is always a bit flaky, and quite prone to producing the odd article that appears to have been written after a hard night out with Ben Cousins.

    The Conservative press has indeed been considerably edgy though. You can compare this to the last election where they all solidly closed ranks behind Howard to the point where any indication of non-partisanship was completely non existent and where the only paper to editorialise in favour of the ALP was the Canberra Times.

    (by the way, does anyone have a copy of that particular editorial – it was heart warming in its defiance).

    I can only hope that this defeatist tone will continue for rest of the campaign. Last week it was a different story with Howard’s tax package and those two polls (Galaxy and Nielson) yet this week the smell of death hanging over the government has returned with a vengeance.

    From my own point of view, it seems like the more the electorate sees of Howard, the more they want him gone. He does have the look of a dead man walking.

    And I can’t see there being too many tears of sorry should he lose. It will be the end of the most cynical, mean spirited, divisive and spin doctored Government this country has ever had.

  16. Boll # 61 and Swing Lowe # 63.

    What I’m saying is that Labor will probably lose both Cowan and Swan, and have trouble holding on to Brand, with the Bomber retiring. There’s 3 seats right there, just in WA. If Labor picks up any seats in WA, it will be a miracle – the polls actually have the Libs in front 56-44 on average, with virtually no swing, or even a swing TO the Libs.

    Let’s look at the other states – Macquarie and Parramatta will probably swap hands, going home to their own parties (see the 2007 guide for details) in NSW. Turnbull’s margin in Wentworth is artificially deflated – he’ll have no trouble holding on to his own seat. Labor may, however pick up Lindsay, and (if they’re lucky) Eden-Monaro – however, the Libs are sparing no pork in the bellwether. Despite a desire to see the Rodent gone, I am not giving spit for Maxine’s much-touted chances in Bennelong. If the ALP is lucky, they’ll also fetch Dobell.

    Labor may very well lose Bendigo in Victoria, not helped by the abysmal performance of the Brumby Government. Corcoran in Isaacs lost votes in 2004 despite a highly favourable redistribution, and her performance will be interesting this time around. Having trouble seeing Victorian seats that the ALP can pick up – they’ve already got 20 of 39. Such ALP seats as don’t go backwards will become much safer, however.

    In SA, Labor can make some gains to offset these – Kingston and Makin will probably fall to Labor. Despite the ALP’s stupidity in choosing yet ANOTHER left-wing union affiliate to run in Wakefield, they may gain that seat as well. However, unless Georganas stops being invisible in Hindmarsh, he’ll lose it to the Libs. I’ve written off Boothby thanks to the utter stupidity of the ALP’s “star candidate” Cornes.

    ALP to pick up Braddon and possibly Bass in Tas. We all know why.

    Not much hope for the ALP in Qld – I’ll give them Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Herbert. Labor’s chances are much overrated in Flynn – although they might get lucky.

    Total – Worst-case – ALP loses 7 to the Coalition (Swan, Cowan, Brand, Bendigo, Macquarie, Isaacs and Hindmarsh) and picks up 9 from the Coalition (Paramatta, Lindsay, Kingston, Makin, Braddon, Bonner, Moreton, Blair and Herbert), for a net total of 85 Coalition. You were right after all, guys – 89 L/NP was too much to give them after all.

    Best-case – ALP loses 2 to the Coalition (Swan and Cowan – those votes are fairly locked-in), and picks up 14 from the Coalition (Parramatta, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Kingston, Makin, Wakefield, Braddon, Bass and the five Qld seats.) This would deliver a total of 75 L/NP, 73 ALP and 2 independants (I’m giving Calare to the ALP). L/NP appoints an Independant Speaker, and has a floor majority.

    The Coalition is just too firmly cemented into power (with 87 seats) to be kicked out at one election, barring a 1996-style swing, which I don’t see on the cards, for four reasons.
    1. This is NOT the recession we had to have (yes, I know that we had to have it and that it did us good, but that phrase did Keating no good at all). People do NOT (shown time and again historically) kick governments out in good times, which for many people these are. It doesn’t happen.
    2. There has been no 1993-style warning signal. This election should be it, paving the way for 2010.
    3. Howard’s retiring after the election anyway, so wasting your time attacking him will generate no return. This also reduces the “it’s time” factor, although it doesn’t eliminate it altogether.
    4. Even Keating only had 80 seats going into 1996. You have to go back to 1990 to see the last government with this size majority (Hawke had 86 seats going in, and lost 8 of them, just barely holding on).

    Therefore, my final prediction – definite L/NP win (I’ve put $20 on it elsewhere), with size varying from 75 to 85 seats. I’ll pick 78 as my number – the worst-case for ALP was VERY worst-case.

  17. Michael, the ALP winning 74 seats would likely be enough for them to form government. If they achieved the largest percentage of the primary Windsor would back them, Labor would appoint Katter speaker and have their majority.

    To win I think the Coalition needs to hold the ALP back to 73 seats.

  19. Some people are saying 3 Independents (Lefty E) and some even 5 (Mark). Who are these extra independents?

    By the way, I live in Goldstein and the chance of it suddenly changing colours and going Labor is minimal, to say the least. There are a number of traditionally pro-Labor middle income suburbs but that is offset by all the blue ribbon Liberal patches, a la Brighton and Sandringham.

  21. kevin the rock star

    KEVIN Rudd neither looks nor acts like a rock star.

    Yesterday, however, the Labor leader got the full treatment from a surging mob of teenagers at a Melbourne high school.

    His tour of Eumemmerring College, in sunburnt Hallam, seemed to define the momentum that has enveloped the Opposition campaign.

    “We want Rudd, we want Rudd, we want Rudd,” the group screamed during mid-morning recess

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22643840-2862,00.html

    this is sounding like more and more like 1972 again

  22. I heard an inteview with a guy from GetUp and even he didn’t sound like he believed the poll. The fact is that Labor cannot win control of the Senate this electon anyway so the only question is can the Coalition retain control? According to these figures they probably can but it’s still difficult to believe these numbers.

  23. erm..westpoll has had labor losing brand since it was created.

    it never has. It wont this time either.

    its all stirling, hasluck, cowan and swan

    For some reason westpoll does not survey swan…

  24. In my parallel universe the Libs are routed and Tabitha becomes Hon. Leader of the Opposition (with Glen as deputy). Her opening address to parliament goes something like this:

    [ speech begins ]

    Labor is for losers.
    Liberal is for winners.

    [ speech ends ]

  25. Eumemmerring College……..most of these kids wont be able to vote in the future due to the new electoral laws, they will be in jail. 🙂

  26. “When I see Penny Wong and John Faulkner on tv I want to do an Elvis and shoot the TV. Irritation factor SPF1000!”

    Gee – thats exactly what I feel when I see any of the Howard Cabinet on TV.

    😉

  27. Michael: The betting agencies seem to be more conservative with individual seats. This can be seen as a few things, power of incumbency as well as the need to find ways to win money against possible huge losses of the overall bet. I know someone said before that it could be a 4-5 seat margin. This is why I’ve gone for a small victory for the ALP – just an 18 seat gain like they got in 98 (they lost in 98 but this time it will be enough to win).

  28. Matt Cole, the problem with your argument is that its not at all supported by the polls.

    There’s no indication Brand will fall, although I’m certain the Coalition will win Cowan. They will not win Swan, but will retain Stirling and Hasluck.

    You say Hindmarsh will go back to the Liberal party, ignoring the poll giving them a 60-40 lead over the Liberal Party just earlier this week.

    Everything else in your post is at least arguable, if not supported by polling or the actions of the government.

    Think to yourself, if the Liberal Party was really unconcered about their electoral chances would they be acting the way they are? Talking about Australia going into recession should Labor win is a big thing to say, firing your tax policy off on the first day of the campaign is a big thing to do. Waiting this late in the year to hold an election is a big thing to do.

    We also have reports that the Liberal Party’s internal polling is showing a 10.6% swing since the last election, albeit in surprising places.

    Why do you think that even Liberal Party supporters here aren’t predicting the size of Coalition victory that you are?

  29. Blacklight # 173
    I don’t refer to Westpoll anymore, ever since they had Jaye Radisch losing Swan Hills 32-52 in the 2005 state election, and she picked up to 54/46, gaining 14% on her primary vote when the overall result was fairly neutral.

    James # 171
    I don’t doubt it. But high school students are too young to vote, and adults are too sceptical of any politician (after 11 years of Howard, who wouldn’t be?) to trust anyone based on the fact that he looks like a nice guy and has some charisma. I personally think that a Rudd government would be Australia’s easiest road out of the grey depression of the Howard years – it just isn’t going to happen, unfortunately. Meh – I’m starting to think that I’m just someone who’s had his hopes dashed too many times.

  30. 34
    Jim Says:
    October 25th, 2007 at 8:14 am
    ps You may not know me.
    I am one of the many silent but frankly, amused, right-wingers who read this blog for our daily funnies. Bit like I used to read ‘Peanuts’ as a child.

    Hate to be pedantic, Jim, but if they’re silent, how do you know they’re there, and that they are “many” in number?

  31. Matthew Cole, your claim regarding Hindmarsh being under threat is somewhat laughable. The swing is on in Hindmarsh big time. The Liberal candidate Rita Bouras is woeful, and the Advertiser poll has around a 10% swing on the cards. The chances of the Liberals winning back Hindmarsh is close to zero. The Rann revolution in South Australia coupled with a dysfunctional state liberal party has the Liberals dead in the water here.

  33. “Matt Cole [#166], the problem with your argument is that its not at all supported by the polls.

    There’s no indication Brand will fall, although I’m certain the Coalition will win Cowan. They will not win Swan, but will retain Stirling and Hasluck.”

    Yet, the Westpoll has Labor losing Stirling and Hasluck and quite convincingly.

    I think Matthew’s is a pretty sound analysis.

  35. Matthew Cole @161
    That analysis makes Christopher Pearson look well informed. You can’t even get facts right. The Labor candidate inWakefield worked for the SDA. Since when did they EVER get classed as left wing. And Georganas in Hindmarsh? Didn’t you read the poll on Wednesday?

  37. #159 Tabitha

    “Liberal encourages strong and independent women like me”

    Tabitha compare JWH’S wife to KR’S wife, if this is your view you should then vote Labour

  38. 166 MC: In your SA analysis you’ve got Georganas wrong. He’s killing Bouras, confirmed by the quite respectable Tiser poll published yesterday. It’s in the bag.

    Completely right about Cornes though. Women hate her. Stupid mistake by the ALP, should have had Handshin in Boothby (Surely she could have moved:))

  42. WA polls show on average about 50-50 TPP

    This is a swing of 5% to the ALP.

    This is enough to make Brand very safe Labor, and for them to easily hold Swan.

    Recent local Westpolls have said that Cowan won’t be so easy to hold
    and that Hasluck and Stirling may be harder to pick up than the state-wide swing would suggest.

    Canning, Kalgoorlie and Forrest are all conceivable Lib losses due to local factors coupled with a swing which may be bigger than 5% out of the fiercely fought marginals.

    So WA will be somewhere between a 1 coalition gain to a 6 ALP gain.
    Most likely 2 gains to ALP.

  43. John of Melbourne, in the 1929 election, Stanley Bruce lost his seat in an election seeing a swing of 5.2% away from them (4.2% to the ALP) and a loss of 15 seats, giving a 75 seat Parliament.

    This resulted in an ALP/Coalition split of 46/24.

    It’s almost incongruous to today though (different voting systems, candidates being elected unopposed etc.) In fact it may even be unconstitutional now for candidates to be elected unopposed (not that it would happen).

  47. Jim is just another name for the one person who posts as Glen, Tabitha and Nostradamus.

    He also has dozens of other names which he has never used.

    Thus he knows they exist.

  48. Matt Cole, I live in Macquarie and to say that it will go to the Coalition is a bit of a stretch. I must say, there has been not a whole lot of activity on the TV with ads or campaigning around the place. The main people advertising on the TV here are the Nationals and they aren’t even running in this electorate. This makes me wonder what the go is with the campaign funding. If the Liberals were actually making a serious go of it here they would surely do more to support Kerry (who has all the charisma of a wet lettuce leaf).

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