Galaxy Senate poll

As reported by the Sydney Morning Herald (link broken at the time of writing), GetUp! has commissioned its third national poll of Senate voting intention from Galaxy. This is a highly dubious exercise which is producing very strange results. Make whatever you like from the news that Labor’s vote has slumped in the last month from 39 per cent to 33 per cent. The sample size was 1003; Family First and the Democrats were both on 2 per cent.

October 20/21 33 38 11
September 8/9 39 35 10
June 23/24 38 34 13
2004 Election 35.0 45.0 7.7

UPDATE: GetUp! press release here. Maddeningly, “other/don’t know” has been rolled into one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

707 comments on “Galaxy Senate poll”

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  1. Bobby Horry, great looking game.
    Wonder what button you click when you’re down 58/42 with 4 weeks to go?
    The one that says promise to spend one billion dollars in every marginal electorate or the one that says promise to spend two billion dollars in every marginal electorate?
    This game’s easy.

  2. Apologies for the slightly off-topic post, but I’ve seen a number of questions in other places in this site along the lines of “Alan Kohler said that a Nov/Dec double rate rise is a possibility, why not 50bp in one go?”

    The real reason is because Alan (and others) are saying something like:

    “The current data is strong enough for the RBA to raise rates in Nov. Also, I believe the data between Nov and Dec will be strong enough to cause the RBA to raise rates again in Dec.”

    Contrast this with:

    “The current data is strong enough for the RBA to raise rates in Nov, and again in Dec, REGARDLESS of what the data between Nov and Dec says.”

    Only if you beileve the second response should you expect the RBA to go 50bp in Nov. Hence the reason that some analysts are now expecting the Nov/Dec double or, at least, the classic “failing to rule it out”.

    The main data to come out between Nov and Dec which would affect that subsequent Dec decision by the RBA are all the monthly figures (employment, retail sales, credit use) and the furhter developments in the US. The US appears headed for some nastiness, and the depth of said nastiness will also affect the RBA.

    On the topic of credit numbers, there are also credit usage figures out on Oct 31. Depending on the strength of those, the last remaining chance of “no move” in Nov may be wiped out. Last I checked there was about a 15% chance of no move in Nov priced into the market.

  3. Perhaps people are scared of giving power to the ALP and going to vote minor parties, but seriously a 2% drop in Senate primary for the ALP compared to a 7% drop from the Coalition. Surely some votes should of swung to the ALP.

  4. LTEP, I’m happy to own up to predicting a Coalition majority of 8-10. I vetntured for a chance of more after the debate, however, for now, Coalition 83-85 is where I’ll stay.

  5. Yeh, doesn’t Matthew’s prediction mean that the Government will GAIN seats?

    Btw, I love it how ESJ has just predicted a bigger Labor win than myself – come join us on the forces of good, ESJ!!!

  6. Prime Minister John Howard, campaigning in Western Australia, tried to put a positive spin on the inflation figures, and declared the Coalition would be re-elected on November 24. “We’re going to win this election. We’re going to keep Australia in safe and steady hands.”
    What do you think the response of the Liberals would be if Rudd had said these words? I’m sure Glen could tell us.
    What these words tell me though is that even Howard is finding it difficult to believe tthey can win. That he feels he needs to build up the hopes of the troops.

  7. Most people vote EXACTLY the same in the House of Reps as they do with the Senate, and this can clearly be seen from the 2004 election results.

    If Labor gets 45% of the primary vote, they WILL get around 45% of the senate vote as well.

    For me this is a no-brainer as most voters are lazy, don’t care about politics and will always vote for the same party on both forms.

  8. Joe McDonald, the CFMEU’s West Australian deputy secretary is still a member of the ALP, four months after Labor leader Kevin Rudd promised to expel him after he was caught on camera threatening construction bosses.

    And yesterday Brian Courtice, the former Labor member for the regional Queensland seat of Hinkler attacked union influence in the ALP at a press conference with Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey. Courtice declared: “Kevin Rudd couldn’t go three rounds with Winnie the Pooh, so there’s no way he’s going to be able to stand up to the union bosses”.


  9. Gary Bruce: Expect ads (at least online ones) saying a vote for Labor is a vote for a recession. They started down that track yesterday, and they can’t campaign on interest rates this time so they have to campaign on something more fearful.

  10. Yeah Gary, they only say they’re going to win when they’re totally desperate and positive they won’t. He’s now thinking about the mental health of his branch offices rather than the bigger picture..

  11. Misty, I’m firmly of the belief that ecomomics isn’t difficult – economists are.

    As to my prediction for the election, try ALP gets 92 seats.

    (Though my knowledge of minutae is much more aligned to matters financial than electoral.)

    I’m pretty sure the ALP are going to win, but the exact number of seats is a tough guess.

  12. LaborVoter: Actually, I believe there is a trend that while majority of people vote the same way in both houses, a small percentage (Adam can help on this one) tend to vote minor parties for the Senate. I think it’s about 2-3% difference in the HoR to Senate primaries.

  13. Thank god for the unions Jim and if you knew your history you’d be saying the same thing. I’m more worried about the corporate bosses – the ones that your man bends over backwards for…they’re the ones with real power. You obviously aren’t a lower skilled worker on a AWA.

  14. All these predictions…

    The Senate poll DOES seem odd (Senate polls being what they are anyway), but I suspect the missing 14% is voters looking for a home. They’re not happy with the Howard, so thats out, the ALP are a bit too me-too, they can’t bring themselves to vote for the Greens yet, leaving only the other minor parties – but they equally don’t want to “waste” their vote, or worse still see it “given away” to the Libs. The Senate might seriously be where people do make up there minds come election day. Maybe that’ll provide some hope for the Democrats after all (or FFP, LDP/ON/UAP etc).

    Personally, the pain of ’98, ’01 & ’04 is too great. I fear Howard’s ability to pull a rabbit out of the hat, but then Iemma overcame the Carr legacy (which REALLY took some overcoming!), so maybe Rudd really is in there. I’m hoping for a 80+ seats to ALP (workable margin in the house) and a ALP/Green vote in excess of 54% in the Senate, thus wresting control from the Libs, especially given state variations.

    Damn, I wasn’t going to make a prediction…

  15. Jim, you provide an example of another disgruntled former Labor man with an axe to grind. So what? The term ‘sour grapes’ comes to mind and with it a strong belief that most people will view it in that light if indeed they view it at all.
    Only the rusted ons get hot over this stuff and their vote is locked in anyway.

  16. mike_f: Growing up in Townsville, I know what it’s like up there.. So yes this is what will sure up votes with the bogans. Is it enough to win Herbert? Not sure, but it will most likely add 1-2% to the swing. Watch tomorrow with Howard offering $15-20m for the project.

  17. Put me down for ALP 88, my lucky number. I think on the day, there will be enough scaredy cats, who decide late to stay with the Libs, to keep the Labor number down.

  18. Put me down for 82 ALP/3 Ind/65 Coalition. I get the feeling right now that there’s going to be a swing, and once we get closer to the day and it really looks like the Libs are gone, people will be bolting for the liferafts.

    I wonder when people like Ruddock, Downer, Costello &c will get asked “will you promise to stay a full term if the ALP wins?”

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