Hinkler (Qld, Nationals 8.8%): Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for this Bundaberg-based seat, Garry Parr, is suffering a campaigning boycott from members of the Left and Unity (“Old Guard”) factions. Parr is backed by the Labor Forum (AWU) faction, whose chieftain Bill Ludwig has evidently put a few noses out of joint. Former Labor Forum members Brian Courtice, who held the seat from 1987 to 1996, and Greg McMahon, a one-time branch secretary and candidate at the 1998 state election, have said they will not vote for Parr in protest at Ludwig’s “bully boy” approach. Courtice was expelled from the party in 2005 for leaking party documents to state Nationals MP Rob Messenger, which purportedly exposed the “siphoning” of $7,000 in branch funds. At around this time, Courtice’s wife Marcia was sacked from her job with state Bundaberg MP Nita Cunningham, which she claimed to be in revenge for her husband’s actions. Marcia Courtice reportedly had the backing of local branches for the Bundaberg preselection going into the 2006 election, but the party’s union-appointed electoral college instead imposed former nurse Sonja Cleary. McMahon ran against Cleary as an independent, and the seat fell by a narrow margin to Nationals candidate Jack Dempsey, who was assisted by the fallout over the Bundaberg Hospital “Dr Death” scandal.
Blair (Liberal 5.7%): The Courier-Mail reports that the largesse being heaped on this crucial electorate, which covers most of Ipswich and rural areas beyond, is “starting to cause angst in Coalition ranks”. Specifically, Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce has criticised the decision to spend $2.3 billion on the Goodna bypass as the government’s solution to congestion on the Ipswich Motorway. Blair was also the target of yesterday’s announcement by Mark Vaile of $700 million in Auslink funding for a second crossing of the Toowoomba Range, located in neighbouring Groom.
McEwen (Vic, Liberal 6.4%): The Age reports of yet more marginal seat road funding, this time in Fran Bailey’s traditionally precarious electorate beyond Melbourne’s north-eastern outskirts. Peter Costello appeared in the electorate yesterday announcing $80 million in AusLink funding for road bridges on a yet-to-be-built extension of the Epping rail line to South Morang.
Charlton (NSW, Labor 8.4%): Sitting member Kelly Hoare, who was first dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU secretary Greg Combet and then humiliated with sexual harrassment claims, is “considering” following Gavan O’Connor’s footsteps and attempting to hold her Hunter Valley seat as an independent. She has until the closure of nominations next Thursday to make up her mind.
Wentworth (NSW, Liberal 2.6%): Danielle Ecuyer, investment banker and environmental activist, has confirmed she will run for Malcolm Turnbull’s seat as an independent. This prospect has attracted considerable attention as she is a former partner of the Labor candidate, George Newhouse.
Maranoa (Qld, Nationals 21.0%): Labor has dumped its candidate for this unwinnable rural Queensland seat, Shane Guley, after his reputation for robust behaviour as a union official emerged as a political liability. This didn’t seem to bother anybody when he ran at the 2004 election, at which time his colourful history was noted on this website.
glen , i’ll be weeping into my beer but it’ll be tears of joy. i’ll be seriously guilty of Schadenfreude.
148
Could be worse, he could be an antechinus. 🙂
I’ll stick by my 6.4% swing and 53.5% TPP resulting in a 20 seat majority to ALP even though am now seeing that as conservative.
I feel like Ive stumbled into the Collingwood dressing room at half time in the 1970 grand final.
Carlton’s extraordinary inability to trouble the scorers in Round 19 suggested “a discrepancy between the teams was virtually insurmountable. ”
HALF TIME: Collingwood 10.13 (73); Carlton 4.5 (29)
It’s all over.
Except………… Carlton win by 10 points.
How embarassment.
Pride comes before the fall people.
340
Kina Says:
Fraser froze mortgage rates at 13% otherwise they would have been around 17%
Probably more like 19%. The highest the 90 Day RBA bank bill rate got to under Hawke/Keating was 19.56%, compared to Howard’s 21.39%. Also, the lowest rates got to under H/K Labour was 4.78%, and under treasurer Howard it was 7.65%.
362
Matthew Sykes Says:
The UK government is instituting a massive privatisation program of the local NHS Trusts, which is being driven by ‘target’ and profit mad insurance companies, and will be a major disaster.
371
Misty Says:
Chris B – You have a good point re: John Howard in 1996, but then he was relatively moderate during his first term (emphasis on relatively).
His budget slashing wasn’t moderate. For example, he gutted the public dental budget, which has had serious long term consequences, and caused a lot of suffering.
400
alpal Says:
He shoud’a called the election in August/September. The polls stopped him. He shoud’a resigned when Dolly told him. Hyacinth stopped him. Now he’ll take his Party to its greatest-ever defeat. Some legacy.
He should of resigned a year ago and gone out a conservative hero. It was his ego that stopped him. If you want to see a real example of hubris, his refusal to get out while the getting was good is it. And speaking of which…
Glen’s here! Time for our daily dose…
HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS
And a couple of spares
HUBRIS HUBRIS.
Hawke on Agenda. 🙂
Bob Hawke on Agenda now – SkyNooz with David Spears
on hubris: people don’t want the Liberals to win. Not a single piece of evidence says they will, that there is the publcic will of this to happen, and to assume that something will magically appear and reverse the situation is an ironically large dose of hubris in and of itself. To predict an ALP landslide isn’t hubris now – it would have been a year ago.
No. I think that’s based on the idea that this isn’t a replay of 2004. You’d know if it was. You’d know because the gap would be 53-47 and Kevin Rudd wouldn’t be greeted in Melbourne like he had just fished Jesus out of a volcano.
LTEP – the same as it was here on 26th September.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=590&cp=4#comment-42885
[talking to Adam]
“…the only maths you’ll need this year is 60+29=89”
Glen, you and your ilk got hot flushes when the Galaxy came out showing a Labor win by 23 seats. Hell, when your hopes depend on a poll like that you know you are going bad. What did you say your seat prediction for a coalition win was again?
Turnbull must know that the game is up, he has just chucked 10 million at Murdoch`s nephew for a whiz bang rain making ruse.You can`t make this stuff up and they claim they are the good economic managers.
Glen,
Max would be proud of you.
http://www.slashfilm.com/2007/07/10/get-smart-teaser-movie-trailer/
Ok, so we’ve now got Let it End giving the ALP 95 seats.
I’m giving them 70 seats.
Any other predictions? I’m with Bolt on this one… you have to put something forward and then live up to it after the election.
83-65 to Labor with our two jackaroos holding on.
Kina, I think that history will pretty much see it that way. Howard has always had a modicum of credibility because it has suited his backers in business and the media to construct the mythology around him. As others have noted the aust public never really liked him.
Once the emperor loses his clothes its not going to be a pretty site. His powerful backers will abandon him soon I suspect. History will see him as having squandered the resources boom, and the craven manouverings of wedge politics will not look good to posterity. The final chapter of the book – the electoral pasting he’s about to receive will taint his legacy further and be the perfect post script. Thats why I’m keen for him to get wiped out – cos it will deligitimise his decietful and manipulative political modus operandi (which is essential..if we’re not going to have to endure another Howard in the future.)
I think in desperation and true to form he’s in the middle of trashing his economic credibility and by the end of the next 4 weeks might have finished the job.
95-52-3
Labor has big nutcracker
Liberal has exposed walnuts
It’s not hubris, it’s the future…
The following broadcast has been detected through a worm hole in space, (there’s the damn inverterbrate again!), and it comes from a few weeks in the future, and some experts think it’s the Melbourne Cup being called:
“…just two furlongs to go and Rodent’s Rear End is falling down the field, Mandarin Moment is way out in front, Bracket Creep’s looking tired but whoa! What’s this? Even Steven’s crushing Bracket Creep to the fence…he’s down, Bracket Creep is over, Rodent’s Rear End is bringing up the rear and oh, dear, he’s fallen on top of Bracket Creep and Mandarin Moment, the crowd’s favourite is five length’s in front as he crosses the finish line!”
Hang on, we’ve just confirmed it’s a bit later than that, in fact that’s the official vote counting from the tally room on November 24th.
Ladies and gentlemen, Rodent’s Rear End and Bracket Creep have just been put down, and Mandarin Moment is on a victory lap.
I thought for most of this year it would be a Labor win by about 10 seats, until the last couple of weeks, now I think it will be about 15, maybe 20.
I think LTEP’s posts deserve greater respect. I have been reading his contributions over many months and it seems to me that all all he is doing is calling it as he sees it. He should be allowed to wait until the final week of the campaign if he wants to alter his current (pessimistic) prediction of a narrow Australian Labor Party loss. Frankly, I find his contributions as worthy as the much praised Possum.
mike_f – who is your third independent?
I’m holding to the Mumble line: “and no, it won’t be close”.
78-70 ALP
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/
pancho: the dude in Forrest. I hear the coalition candidate is a bit crap there. Also, I don’t know about the situation in Calare, but then I think nobody does. I guess that’ll be determined by who comes third.
Liberal Party Philosphy:
Where the LIE becomes the TRUTH and the TRUTH becomes the LIE.
[Any other predictions? I’m with Bolt on this one… you have to put something forward and then live up to it after the election.]
ALP 85 – 53.5% 2pp
They’ll have a big lead in the polls with 2 weeks to go, say 55/45, but voters will worry about giving away a huge majority so 1 or 2% will drift back to Howard by polling day.
Howard to hold Bennelong by 500 votes (but immediately resign)
Turnbull to hold Wentworth by 100 votes
and the saddest story of all… Pyne to hold Sturt by 2% 51/49
David
LTEP is welcome to his views. The problem is more that he wants to censure others in their exhuberant desire to put their walnuts on the table.
I’d love it to be a wipe out – but… I predict that the ALP will win around 90 seats. Here’s to you, posterity!
John Rocket — I’m with you. It’s going to be absolutely priceless, and if you’re too busy worrying about Howard’s rabbits you’re going to miss out.
LTEP —
Labor 147
Libs 0
Nats 0
Indep 3
I’m being conservative, so I’ve given the independents 3. Or should I go out on a limb and give you the Coalition’s worst case scenario?
I hope William makes a post in late November called: what you said was going to happen. Should make for some interesting reading
No hubris, just the unmistakable smell of death.
If you’re working on the campaign keep working hard, stuffing those letter boxes and remember to be happy and smiling when you hand out the how to vote cards on the 24th. But don’t lose sleep about some Rat of the Undead rising from the ashes. It would take an astronomical stuff up from Rudd to even get Club Vermin back in with a sniff.
Tim Blair can cut and paste what he likes, it won’t change the fact he’s a prat. The cut and pasting will be going the other way frankly. This Rat has been dead for a while now. Just no one has buried the corpse yet.
Mr Denmore, agreed the RBA will be looking at the US, but realistically what are the odds of anything happing there making a difference to their deliberations on Nov 6? 2%? Every time the market loses a couple of percent due to shocks on Wall St they get em back with interest next week. The Fed in reducing rates is reacting to a completely different set of circumstances that the RBA is. The Reserve will be focused first and formost on preventing an inflation blowout. You’d know more than I about that, but I don’t see too much reason to suspect the US situation is going to reduce inflation pressures here. Our economy is getting close to overheating and I doubt the board would gamble on US problems slowing it down (maybe) when they have the responsibility to give the brakes a jab.
New Liberal Party website.
http://www.lies.com/
ashley
LOL
Can anyone confirm that Labor has candidates running in 147 seats… otherwise my prediction of 147 seats to Labor may be optimistic.
HAHHAHAHAHA! 😛
INFLATION IS FINE! BLACK IS WHITE! BLAH! I GIVE UP!
Ashley
Stop it!!
[Can anyone confirm that Labor has candidates running in 147 seats… otherwise my prediction of 147 seats to Labor may be optimistic.]
They have 150 candidates.
Fair enough Sean (478). In my experience, bona fide pessimists (and I believe LTEP is one of them), are well informed optimists! You can make of that observation what you will, but it will be interesting to see whether there is any swing back to the Coalition late in the campaign. All the available evidence suggests that is very unlikely but who knows, Mr. Rudd might indulge himself in a ‘birthday cake moment’. In my opinion, that is what it is going to take for the Coalition to prevail. We will see.
Government’s Union Scare Campaign
I understand that the Government is still distributing pamphlets with the 70% union officials claim, which has since been proven false. I also heard the PM on AM radio this morning making the same claim.
Is this something the electoral comission should be looking into?
David (489): Kevin Rudd could take to wearing a tiara and ask to be addressed as Princess Amanda. He could transport Julia Gillard to press conferences riding horsey and humming the theme to Bonanza. Which is to say, match the coalition meltdown drip for drip. Otherwise…?
On matters of electoral authorisation – there’s a monster billboard on the monster truck racetrack otherwsie known as the Monash Freeway in Melb – ‘Labor would be a disaster for the economy’ blah blah – are these thibns supposed to be authorised by someone? ‘cos this one isn’t … anyone an expert on such matters?
I want to see Howard and The Gimp slaughtered. Then the Libs tear themselves apart and spend 15-20 years in the political wilderness. Why………Workchoices!
Possibly Rudd is going to win so big that he could dispense with parliament and institute a trade union socialist autocracy populated by chardonay elites, dogooders, hippies, artists and the welfare dependent .. Janet albretchsen and Gerard Henderson could do the cleaning…Sorry LTEP
“Pyne to hold Sturt by 2% 51/49”
Saying that he loses, and Mia Handshin, Kate Ellis and Nicole Cornes win, who will get that house seat right behind Rudd in the camera’s line of sight?
Chasers latest – 100% of unions are controlled by unionists 🙂
You need to review your maths, I said a 20 seat majority which is 84/64 not 95
Although I’m also keen for a Labor win, there’s something a bit sad about all of the carry on in this forum about massive wins etc with still 4.5 weeks to go.
#492 – the authorisation is probably in print far too tiny to read from a car (I don’t think there’s any law saying how large the font size of the authorisation has to be).
YAY! Rudd has came out laying blame squarely on the government making a point that they’ve had many of warnings from the RBA about capacity constraints.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22640999-29277,00.html