D-day minus 31

591 comments on “D-day minus 31”

1. Lots of sideshow here. As for Wentworth George Newhouse has really cut out for him with his ex being a BITCH trying to spoil his chances. This may mean something & it goes down to the wire on election night or the ‘Rudd slide will sweep all before it.
   Patience grasshopper, Patience.

2. CHARLTON
   Mixed feelings on this one. I used to live in this electorate and knew Kelly and her father and predecessor Bob Brown quite well. Her dad was actually personally responsible for persuading me to be affiliated with the Labor side of politics. I always found Kelly very friendly and helpful when I needed her help and I had a lot of respect for her.

   I disagreed with Rudd’s decision to strip her of pre-selection, even though I recognize the validity of the arguments for him doing so. I thought it was a particularly unfortunate thing to do to the local Labor Party branches who were still reeling from the unpleasantness of the Bryce Gaudry saga earlier in the year –incidentally her father was one of those expelled from the Labor Party for supporting Gaudry. Nevertheless I have a lot of respect and admiration for Combet and am glad he is entering Parliament.

   I’m not sure how well Hoare would poll as an independent. I don’t think she’s been in long enough to have much of a personal vote and I think that the high profile of Combet combined with the popularity of Rudd will probably dilute the potential impact of her candidacy. Nevertheless she may get some votes from people who remember her father and from those still disillusioned over the Gaudry situation in neighboring Newcastle. But I don’t see her posing much of a thread to Combet if she runs.

   HINKLER
   I can hardly follow the factional problems of the Queensland Labor Party –goodness knows it’s hard enough trying to keep up with the factional issues with the NSW Labor Party –but I expect Paul Neville to retain this seat. Neville has seen off stronger challengers than Parr and the margin is sufficient for him to prevail even in the event of a strong statewide swing. I think Rudd may be in great difficulty in Queensland and this worries me

   WENTWORTH
   So I guess the question is whether Ecuyer will direct preferences to Turnbull, her ex or someone else or will she not give guidance to her supporters on preferences? I still expect Turnbull to win here

3. If all goes as expected and Labor is swept to power, many of us would hope Rudd would be brave enough to take on some of these heavies such as Ludwig. What occurred in Hinkler is dreadful, as was his (successful) move earlier to remove Emerson from the front bench.

   The Liberals ‘union-boss-control’ type of campaign, mildly echoed (albeit unfairly) in the O’Connor-Corio issue, is about 95% rubbish. Edwards’ snipings of Labcest don’t take into account the (very) gradual changes in pre-selection occurring since Crean’s day. It is improving and will go on doing so with electoral success.

   One of the biggest barriers to reform was Kimbo who would never ever rock the boat with the factional heavies, even to the point of sacrificing Barry Jones for the national presidency. Perhaps he was influenced by his brilliant dad’s alienation from the Labor power-brokers of his day.

4. Re. Wentworth, the SMH today had an article on the ‘ex running and noted that there would at some point be a debate between the two main candidates. BOTLO for a debate between Newhouse and Turnbull. No notice of when that would be though.

   Re. the CPI coming out today, the following shows the time it will be out:

   “The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the September quarter core and headline consumer price index (CPI) at 11.30am AEST. “

5. The Great The Pal and Baked Bean Bonanza of 2007.

   Yesderday El Rodente pitched for the Grey Vote with what amounted to an $8 per week pension increase. Word on the bingo circuit says they can’t wait to thank King Kirribilli Coconut come November 24.

6. The pork for road bridges in McEwen is a wedge.

   It’s contingent on the State Labor Government extending the Epping train line into the electorate. This is something the Bracks Government promised to do, but failed to deliver. It will be interesting to see if Labor matches the road bridges pledge – if it does, it’s effectively ordering the State Government to spend more money on the rail line (which is badly needed).

7. Julie,
   RE:- Wentworth
   This Saturday at the Paddington Market Church on Oxford Street, there will be a Meet the Candidates Forum starting at 1:00pm.
   Perhaps we will have some debate there.

8. http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/a-smarter-vision-for-the-future-not-ruddy-likely/2007/10/23/1192941064156.html

   Excellent piece from Ross Gittins. It expresses a lot of the angst about Rudd I’ve had building up over the past few weeks.

   I also think the problem he identifies may be core to why the ALP lose, if they should do so. There are actually a surprisingly high number of people out there crying out for more progressive policies. If Rudd ends up too close to Howard people are bound to ask – why the hell should I bother taking a risk?

9. As a Charlton voter, I would support PD1981 in saying that Kelly Hoare was a very nice person and did a lot for the refugee cause. She was especially good at maintaining a social position on refugees despite the electorate having many socially conservative ALP voters.

   That said, depsite a few new lake-side Liberal pockets, this is a dyed-in-the-wool ALP electorate that would vote ALP come hell or high water. I don’t think Kelly will run but if she does her personal standing will not count for much. The new boundaries also take in areas that would never have heard of Kelly and that is where Combet’s office is.

   The NSW state election saw an independent win, but he was a VERY popular local mayor and, I believe, if it wasn’t for the appalling behaviour of NSW ALP on many issues he would have been an ALP candidate. Besides, he only just scraped in.

   Combet has nothing to fear from Kelly Hoare even if she runs

10. Misty

    I agree with Gittins but he really failed to further explore one of his opening observations – that voters want more but have a feeling that Rudd will give it to them AFTER the election.

    Howard is not the only one who can purse his lips and whistle a tune on the dog whistle.

    I don’t doubt that the progressives amongst us will be frustrated by a Rudd government but I say bring it on and then let’s debate some real issues with him. The trouble is we have lost the fundamentals of social justice so much under Howard that we can’t even begin to make a dint in the real progressive issues.

    Rudd in government and Brown as opposition – now that I would like to see!

11. { Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he cannot explain why the prime minister deleted references to his deputy in election material.
    “… John Howard deleted references to Treasurer Peter Costello in letters sent to voters in the prime minister’s Bennelong electorate, according to The Australian newspaper….”}

    Malcolm Turnbull pot – kettle – black
    As a Wentworth voters, we have received very, very expensive Malcolm Turnbull brochures in the mail,’printed on recycled paper using environmentally-friendly vegetable-based inks’ 210mmx 210mm, 20 pages of glossy (not high-gloss- more soft sheen) pix, Malcolm here; Malcolm there; Malcolm & Family; Malcolm & kids; Malcolm & President Hu signing ’something’; Malcolm Protecting our Icons….
    Where is John Howard? Where is Peter Costello ?
    Not even a mention, let alone a ‘Happy-Snap’ of either with Malcolm.
    Who is funding this mail-out?
    Turnbull should make it very clear, there are reports he’s had meetings with The Exclusive Brethren and they are supporting his campaign.

12. Check out the interested spectator in the last frame of this.

    http://www.smh.com.au/multimedia/2007/national/election-2007-dancing-in-bennelong/index.html

13. William,

    You might want to include the Coalition infighting in Barker. The sitting Liberal is saying a vote for the Nats is a vote for Labor, now the Nats candidate is threatening to go to the AEC about it all.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/24/2068439.htm

14. Misty and Kit:

    Howard sure has suffocated the debate, so much so that government is about not running anything except a well payed sheltered workshop for pollies. Rudd would frighten the horses if he even suggested that government does have a bigger role to play beyond the much heralded ‘free market’, but I think his ‘education revolution’ is his dog whistle. He’s saying that government must get back into the traditional role of providing services as its part of the social contract, and by hammering away at that, plus backing broadband, he’s flagging a committment to change the way government acts.

    Gittins’ argument is that if he intends to follow through on that, then he’s chained himself down to a heavy tree stump with these tax cuts, and it will severely limit his ability to move harder in this direction.

    But I get the impression that Rudd has his eye on the long term, and what he’s doing is baiting the electoral hook without rocking the boat, but intends to sail off in future years to new waters. My fear is that he may have weighed down the boat with too much of Howard’s ballast.

15. Misty… so what you’re saying is… people want more progressive policies… they’re not getting it from Rudd, so they’ll vote for Howard to get it?

    There are other options of course, vote minor party in the Senate and choose which of the two major parties will most likely be less abhorent to you in the House. If you are concerned about Labor’s stated intentions in reference to ‘progressive policy’, think the Liberal Party offer a better deal and better economics then go ahead and vote for them.

    I don’t believe that… but to each their own. The most important thing where Labor is concerned is that they’ll have nothing to offer if they’re not in Government. They can have all the best intentions in the world when they’re in Opposition and it won’t make a difference.

16. LTEP – I’d never vote for the Coalition on that basis myself. I’m willing to believe just about anyone is better than Howard and Co. However I did note a lot of comments from members of the gay community along those lines yesterday.

    There are plenty of voters out there that don’t have a strong affiliation to either party, but do feel that a more progressive government is in order after far too long of Mr 1950s. Such people may get turned off Rudd if he fails to differentiate himself sufficiently from John Howard – particularly in terms of social policy.

    Personally I am increasingly frustrated by Rudd’s conservatism. As Gittens alludes to there are many of us out there desperately hoping that once the election is won Rudd will suddenly transform from a conservative grubb into a socialist butterfly. Clearly we are deluding ourselves.

17. Just saw this one from Hockey:

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22638994-5013945,00.html

    Hockey is complainging that YRAW have sent letters to newspapers as part of a concerted campaign – unforgiveable surely!!

    Surprisingly well balanced article given the source.

18. Jason Wood in La Trobe has an ad in the local rag but there is no mention of the Liberal party. Why are these sitting members so ashamed?

19. Steve #12

    It’s her Grandad!!

20. Misty – Rudd’s singular aim is to win the election and mimicking Howard is the way he has chosen. Once in government, Labor will be a lot more progressive than they appear to be now.

21. PD1981 says “I disagreed with Rudd’s decision to strip her [Hoare] of pre-selection, even though I recognize the validity of the arguments for him doing so.” The Charlton preselection had nothing to do with Rudd, although no doubt he approved. Combet indicated he wanted a seat and the NSW Labor Party found him one. Hoare was a useless, lazy, low-grade hack who would never have been elected to Woop Woop council without her father being an MP. People can’t go on about nepotism and hackery in the Labor Party and then complain when something is done about it. Combet is a first-class talent and will be a Labor minister fairly soon. If Hoare runs she’ll be lucky to get 10%.

22. Alex – But that is precisely Gittens’s point. Perhaps we are all deceiving ourselves when we believe that.

    And even if Rudd is significantly more progressive than he is letting on he may be so constrained by his current me-tooism once he gets into office that he will have little room to act in that manner.

    Gittens:

    “Rudd talks about his grand plans but, in reality, he keeps closing off his options, lumbering himself with commitments to keep pursuing Howard’s policies.

    Which goes to show that Howard really is the cleverest politician of his generation. Even if he loses this election he will have dictated the bulk of his opponents’ policies for at least their first term.”

23. I’m gay and whilst gay marriage would be welcomed by me, the political reality cannot be ignored. Labor in my opinion is right to tread carefully. I think its obvious enough that complete reform to supperannuation, taxation, and the many other federal laws that discriminate against gay and lesbian couples is overdue, and will not cause any murmurs in the community. I for one believe an incremental reform process will be the most successful, in spite of what I would like in an ideal world. If you move too fast, you give the zealots too much ammo !

24. Misty, I am a member of the ‘gay community’ (whatever that is) and don’t imagine that Rudd will be some ‘socialist butterfly’ nor do I want it. Rudd is there to put Labor in a position for them to govern for all of us. If we look at the record of Labor governments on a state level, they are undeniably better with same sex issues than the Coalition is.

    We even had the Coalition use their territories power to overrule the ACT’s civil unions Bill, which is clearly unacceptable. Note that Labor did not support this action (nor did ACT senator, Gary Humphries).

    In all elections we need to look at the sum total of a party’s actions and decide which of the two majors will receive our preference, which party is closest to what we believe. Also remember that we have a more representative Senate which can look after our interests and put the pressure on the majors to deliver.

    To me, for left people to whinge and whine about Rudd not being left enough is to ignore the undeniable fact that no matter what he is, the Labor Party will always be at least marginally better than the modern Liberal Party. Think back at the actions of this government and ask yourself… would Labor have done that?

    To me, it’s clear there’s a very big difference between the two major parties and I can never understand people that state otherwise.

25. Thanks steve @ 12 for the clip. She can move!

26. I watched with some horror a gay debate at a state labor conference. Rudd’s position is not just a match of Howard’s it reflects a large piece of the labor vote on the floor of the conference.

    I think for those personally affected just think a little bit about which of the two parties is most likely to use you for a deliberate wedge regardless of the damage it will do to you and which is most likely to have a reasonably open debate and perhaps even, in time so some leadership in a progressive direction so that the community comes with us.

    I strongly disagree with Alex’s ‘once in Government’ will be different, that is just using a Howard wedge, but the pressures and directions on a Labor government will be in the right direction and over time progress will be made.

    Lets be honest on many of these issues Howard has been driving in the opposite direction not just for philosophical reasons but for political gain from the Hanson mob. I don’t think progressives, as disappointed as they might be, can look to Howard as a progressive alternative.

    Finally interesting that Howard is trying to make EVERY WEEK about the tax policy. Either it confirms some of the ‘they have nothing else’ theories of those much wiser and furrier than me, or they are getting some numbers back that indicate it has some traction.

27. Speaking as a gay man I entirely approve Rudd’s decision not to be wedged by Howard on this issue. Most gay and lesbian people don’t want to get married in any case – they want the removal of discrimination in their everyday lives, and that’s Labor policy. The gay rights movement, if it still exists, should be pushing for civil union legislation in the states.

28. I hope Rudd keeps up his “mimic Howard” strategy – but not in the way you think.

    After running in 96 as not Keating, Howard proceeded to make a case for and win an election on a policy he believed in in 99.

    I don’t look for too much socially progressive policy in a first term Rudd government – but he’ll come out of his shell a little in future campaigns, I believe. The current environment is so toxic to progressive ideas he needs to spend a few years altering the social enverinoment before anyone can make big changes.

29. @18 red wombat Says:

    Jason Wood in La Trobe has an ad in the local rag but there is no mention of the Liberal party. Why are these sitting members so ashamed?.

    Here at outer western edge of Parramatta we have received only one item of unaddressed election material from the Liberal Party. (This contrasts markedly from the flood of materials we received from the Liberals when we were on the outer south-eastern edge of Greenway last time when barely a day went past without something from them.)

    It is threefold A4 full colour pamphlet with a picture of some sky and clouds on the front page. On the inside there is one small muddy picture of Costard and Howello glaring at each other.

    There is but one mention of the local candidate’s name.

    I think the Libs have given up in Parramatta.

30. Postum Posted Thoughtum

    Rudd’s people should be ready if Howard brings up the tax thing again to run an add (perhaps even on TV not just on the web) saying that for 11 long years Howard and Costello think that all they need to do is tax a lot, put the money away and then later give tax cuts. Then call this reform. It is not reform it is massive taxation followed by a tiny bit of relief.

    There is more to Government than just tax and tax cuts, Government needs to care for peoples lives and budgets etc. Mr Howard wants this campaign to be about tax cuts in 5 years time because that is all he has, vote for Rudd who’ll do the tax as well as governing for ordinary Australians.

    I’m to wordy and unpolished but surely you get the idea. If howard is arguing about the size of tax cuts in 5 years time it means he has nothing and should be rejected.

31. Talking of pork-barrelling roads in the marginals …

    Govt denies roads money is a slush fund

    The federal government has denied it will use a giant $22 billion transport fund to pork barrel itself back into power.

    Labor and lobby groups have raised concerns that Auslink II, worth $22.3 billion and starting in 2009-10, will be used to target marginal coalition electorates in the lead-up to the election expected later this year.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/070510/2/13eps.html

    10 May 2007

32. Many people have mentioned the candidates not mentioning they’re part of the Liberal Party.

    This is indeed the tactic for the Liberal Party this election. I remember reading an article a week or so ago saying the Liberal Party campaign team plans to run a national campaign and ‘local campaigns’ focusing on ‘issues that count’ for the electorate, including graffiti, hoons, crime etc. They probably hope to scrounge up enough votes on both campaigns to get across the line in a majority of seats.

    I’ve actually been startled by the wastefulness of the Liberal Party campaign so far. The number of glossy brochures I’ve received (I live in Eden Monaro) just seems wrong. They look like they’ve gone all out with the PR firms this election, the yellow and blue motif must certainly be an effort to give themselves a softer image.

    In contrast, the Labor campaign seems quite penny pinching. I’ve only received one or two small and cheap looking pamphlets from Mike Kelly. I’m seeing no evidence the Liberal Party is being outspent… quite the opposite.

33. Adam: I’m with you on that. I support the removal of discrimination in the areas of tax, super, health and many other areas, but I don’t support gay marriage. In fact I don’t know any of my friends who support it.

34. The ALP hasn’t really started spending yet…. There’s still 4 weeks to go!

35. I should quantify, when I say I support gay marriage, what I really mean is I support a scheme along the lines of UK civil partnerships, which work very well. In fact I agree with them so much, I have one with my partner.

36. Matthew: I support civil unions, because the government already recognises gay relationships as de facto relationships when it comes to things like First Home Buyers Grant, the dole and other things where the government gives money away. When it comes to real issues on taxation, super and that we have laws that blatantly discriminates.

37. Misty – I agree with Rates Analyst, progressive is a dirty word in the present environment. Labor progressives, I think, are savvy enough to assess Rudd as a closet progressive and to trust him to introduce softer polices over time as he settles into the job. Gittins is taking a simplistic line on the Rudd strategy.

38. LTEP – reports for many months said that Labor are cashed up for this campaign. I think the last two weeks will see heavy spending on adverts.

39. This is going to be on long and boring campaign (as an ALP voter, I hope so) – the polls are not moving anywhere, and it certainly looks like people made up their minds months ago. It’s fast reaching the point where I would be surprised if Labor gets a majority below 20 seats (though I would of course settle for a majority of one). The law of political inertia suggests that polling numbers will remain essentially the same until an external force acts upon them, and time is running out for that event to happen. In essence, all the Coalition can do now is to hope for a miracle.

    As for the Gittins theory on a Rudd government – he raises a valid point, though I suspect that he should stick to economic, rather than political, analysis. I’ve got no doubt that Rudd PM will be a fairly conservative Labor leader, and that he will consistently disappoint those of us on the Left. However, a Labor government will be far more likely to introduce policy that we Lefties will be happy with.

    Personally I think Gittins’ argument that Rudd has hamstrung his future government because he’s committed to various Howard policies is to overlook that government coffers are over-flowing at the moment. This may prove to be an excellent election to win simply because of all the money floating around – that rare election where the jibe “where’s the money coming from?” has no salience. So it may not matter that Rudd is copying several Howard policies, as there will be plenty of money to fund Labor priorities.

40. Will, a first hand example of gay discrimination in federal law is buying a house in joint ownership (joint tenants), if your same-sex partner is from overseas. My partner is english, and moved to australia with me after I had been living in the uk for 5 years. He obtained a interdependency visa granted by DIMIA, as it was called then.

    We then went to buy a house in Adelaide, but what we didn’t realise is you need approval to buy a house if the partner of the australian citizen is from overseas, AND a same-sex partner.

    In this situation, we had to apply to the Foreign Investment Review Board, JUST to get permission to buy a house jointly.

    The stupidity is, if I had been on holiday in the Ivory Coast, brought back a woman, we could have bought a house together instantly, with no approval required.

41. Simon Jackman’s latest update.

    http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/index.php

42. There’s no point in having a progressive Labor party if it languishes in opposition. As far as I’m concerned, Rudd can say and do pretty much whatever he wants to get elected, so long as he remains to the left of Howard (not difficult).

    For me, and many other people in Australia I suspect, there is one simple goal at this election: get Howard out of power. This involves taking more ground in the centre, and those of us who would like to see more progressive policies at this election are going to have to cop it.

    Remember: one step at a time. Howard has dragged Australia to the right, and it will take a few years for the pendulum to swing back in the other direction.

43. I was in the seat of Bendigo last weekend, which the Libs could take from Labor with just a one per cent swing. I saw some Liberal posters on one building, saw no Labor posters, and friends of mine in the electorate say they’ve seen little in the mail.

    Water/drought is a huge issue in this seat. There are votes waiting to be won and lost on this.

    I find it just amazing that it’s just assumed that Labor will hold the seat easily, and the Libs aren’t making a big fight for it. Their private polling must really be showing a huge swing to Labor just about everywhere.

44. More National Party pork for the FNQ

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/coalition-promises-10m-upgrade-for-fnq-road/2007/10/24/1192941106355.html

45. “I’ve got no doubt that Rudd PM will be a fairly conservative Labor leader, and that he will consistently disappoint those of us on the Left. However, a Labor government will be far more likely to introduce policy that we Lefties will be happy with.”

    Indeed. I’m finding Rudd increasingly disappointing in his rhetoric and until such time as he proves that he is as prepared as Howard to simply ignore his own past statements I have to assume that when he says he’s conservative he means it.

    But – even if he proves to be personally a reincarnation of John Howard himself, we have to remember that despite the appearance of the campaign, we are not running a presidential election here. Howard has Abbott, Downer, Minchin, even at one point people like Ross Lightfoot pressuring him to move even further right. Rudd will have Gillard, Shorten, etc, and once Labor is in power, those forces will have the opportunity to open up much more rhetorical space to pull him to the left. One has to assume that Rudd has at least some sympathies in that direction or he wouldn’t have joined the party he leads in the first place.

    From a progressive point of view it’s no contest. One can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good (especially when one can vote Green and then give Labor the next preference.)

46. Investment Bankers and Commercial Lawyers aplenty in the Wentworth field.

    At last they are contributing to society…

47. If a government with Kevin Rudd as PM fails it won’t have anything to do with John Howard. Despite Ross Gittens foreseeing his dead hand steering the country from his political grave, I think that on the contrary he will fade from history very quickly.
    Any failings will be the responsibility of Labor completely. The next two turns have to see a substantial improvement in indigenous health, education and employment. Australia’s education system modeling Finland and not the USA. Tackling cost challenges in health. Building infrastructure. China will have more to do whether these gaols come to fruition than the grisly claws of the ghost of John Winston Howard.

48. Steve @ 44

    I find it amusing the story has these two quotes from Mark Vaile:

    “This is something that everyone here and right up the coast has been arguing for for years,” Mr Vaile told reporters today.”
    and
    “I don’t need to remind you of the importance and significance of this seat in our effort to win this election on the 24th of November,” Mr Vaile said.

    One guess as to which of these quote represents the real reason for the road upgrade. Seriously… does anyone think… wow they’re upgrading this road… I’m going to vote for them now!

49. I totally agree with Ashley – 42. The name of the game is get rid of Howard. Everything else is secondary.

50. Labor will be dysfunctional because it doesnt know what it believes in anymore and its base is comprised of contradictory components – hence JWH’s penchant for wedges.

    It will be interesting if Labor sees this election as an endorsement of it or a repudiation of JWH. eg do people endorse re-regulation of the Labor market or do they just not like WorkChoices.

    I disagree Hugo it could be a good one to lose – every resources boom has ended in tears and it seems this one is going to do the same, I doubt rates need to go up more than 1% before there is real tears and pain in the Australian economy. Labor may just inherit as things go pear shaped in 2 years time.

    If that is the case I see Labor being out within 5 years (assuming they have a double dissolution in the first term and the Libs dont self-destruct which is entirely possible)