Hinkler (Qld, Nationals 8.8%): Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for this Bundaberg-based seat, Garry Parr, is suffering a campaigning boycott from members of the Left and Unity (“Old Guard”) factions. Parr is backed by the Labor Forum (AWU) faction, whose chieftain Bill Ludwig has evidently put a few noses out of joint. Former Labor Forum members Brian Courtice, who held the seat from 1987 to 1996, and Greg McMahon, a one-time branch secretary and candidate at the 1998 state election, have said they will not vote for Parr in protest at Ludwig’s “bully boy” approach. Courtice was expelled from the party in 2005 for leaking party documents to state Nationals MP Rob Messenger, which purportedly exposed the “siphoning” of $7,000 in branch funds. At around this time, Courtice’s wife Marcia was sacked from her job with state Bundaberg MP Nita Cunningham, which she claimed to be in revenge for her husband’s actions. Marcia Courtice reportedly had the backing of local branches for the Bundaberg preselection going into the 2006 election, but the party’s union-appointed electoral college instead imposed former nurse Sonja Cleary. McMahon ran against Cleary as an independent, and the seat fell by a narrow margin to Nationals candidate Jack Dempsey, who was assisted by the fallout over the Bundaberg Hospital “Dr Death” scandal.
Blair (Liberal 5.7%): The Courier-Mail reports that the largesse being heaped on this crucial electorate, which covers most of Ipswich and rural areas beyond, is “starting to cause angst in Coalition ranks”. Specifically, Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce has criticised the decision to spend $2.3 billion on the Goodna bypass as the government’s solution to congestion on the Ipswich Motorway. Blair was also the target of yesterday’s announcement by Mark Vaile of $700 million in Auslink funding for a second crossing of the Toowoomba Range, located in neighbouring Groom.
McEwen (Vic, Liberal 6.4%): The Age reports of yet more marginal seat road funding, this time in Fran Bailey’s traditionally precarious electorate beyond Melbourne’s north-eastern outskirts. Peter Costello appeared in the electorate yesterday announcing $80 million in AusLink funding for road bridges on a yet-to-be-built extension of the Epping rail line to South Morang.
Charlton (NSW, Labor 8.4%): Sitting member Kelly Hoare, who was first dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU secretary Greg Combet and then humiliated with sexual harrassment claims, is “considering” following Gavan O’Connor’s footsteps and attempting to hold her Hunter Valley seat as an independent. She has until the closure of nominations next Thursday to make up her mind.
Wentworth (NSW, Liberal 2.6%): Danielle Ecuyer, investment banker and environmental activist, has confirmed she will run for Malcolm Turnbull’s seat as an independent. This prospect has attracted considerable attention as she is a former partner of the Labor candidate, George Newhouse.
Maranoa (Qld, Nationals 21.0%): Labor has dumped its candidate for this unwinnable rural Queensland seat, Shane Guley, after his reputation for robust behaviour as a union official emerged as a political liability. This didn’t seem to bother anybody when he ran at the 2004 election, at which time his colourful history was noted on this website.
Matthew – just a quick, completely off-topic question! But how long did it take for your partner to get the visa to _stay_ in Australia?
Must say i am impressed by the common sense opinions of those in the ‘gay community’ about the same-sex marraige issue. Let me tell you, as a het, marriage is a crock of s*** best avoided!Civil unions are a much more sensible approach.
Rudd may or may not turn out to be a conservative Labor leader, all of them have been (including Whitlam), progressive policies will come if the commmunity wants them, at least with a Rudd government there is the likelehood that it will respond to the community. Howard’s government has been oligarchic from the start.
Now is not the time to scare the horses with any new ‘progressive’ policy statement – it is just what the Liberals want.
ESJ at number 50 – one of the most insightful things I’ve read of yours.
Let’s not forget that the poor ALP finally won a federal election in October 1927. Just in time for the crash. I think the crash is a little further away this time though – and still far enough that it can be averted (or at least diluted) if Rudd implements some of the rhetorical ideas he’s putting forward now.
Yes Persse (47), I agree that Howard’s legacy may well fade quite quickly. When we look back on the Howard era in, say, 2020, there will be very little that we will be able to point to as a concrete, long-lasting achievement. There’ll be the GST of course, and large dollops of middle class welfare to clean up (which will be hard when the time comes), but, really, JWH doesn’t have much to show for such a record-breaking term. Compare that to the Labor governments of 1983-96. We are still enjoying the pay-off from the economic heavy lifting that Hawke and Keating did, not to mention Medicare and compulsory super.
But then, if you run a government whose sole purpose is to get re-elected, I guess you can’t expect to leave much in the way of legacy.
ESJ (50) – there are never “good elections to lose”. The economy may head south in the next few years, or it may continue to boom for another 5-10 years (China and India are still expanding rapidly). Whether or not an election is good to lose can only be seen in retrospect. Anyone who claims that they can accurately pick the future is a charlatan.
Indeed, a plausible argument can be made that Labor policies (with its emphasis on education & training, as well as on infrastructure renewal) will actually prolong the boom.
On Ross Gittins’ piece, something really needs to be done about investment in human capacity i.e. educating people in areas of skills shortages. In the 2004 election, even that bunch of rabid socialists, the Business Council of Australia, called for more training of engineers and technicians to fill a looming shortage. Nothing has been done. Now 3 years later and the shortage is here in a large way. We have all sorts of infrastructure needs, and some solutions funded, but there aren’t enough skilled people left to design and build them. This is where a history of inadequate spending in both education and infrastructure really intersect. History has proven that the market will not fix either problem. Policy intervention is needed.
As a suggestion to any Labor policy people present, can we please see more spending on maths education in high schools and engineering at universities? Engineering is a long and expensive course to run and we can hardly blame cash-strapped universities for not offering more places. Even if they did it is debateble if we are producing enough good advanced maths students from high school to fill them. We need something like the funded places scheme for rural doctors. I don’t think Rudd would be accused of being a spend-a-holic socialist if he put a bit more money into science and engineering education at tertiary level.
There’s little doubt that Kevin Rudd is indeed genuinely conservative as is the majority of Australians.
Those who care deeply about the environment comprise but 10% of the electorate and another twenty or thirty per cent care about it to some exent.
There are those of us who would like rapid and radical action to save the planet but we are in a minority.
We are in desperate need of progressive policies in a number of areas but this is not supported by the bulk of Australians.
For any progress to be made at all on the issues that concern us we need to remove the ultra-conservative Howard government.
It is way past its use-by date and mired in the 20th century.
I am happy for a more progressive conservative government to replace an entirely non-progressive conservative government.
There is a number of progressive shadow ministers who will push their agenda when in government.
They may or may not succeed but they will certainly be an advance on the current out-dated mob.
It’s a truism to say that Kevin Rudd, if elected, has to govern for all Australians, the majority of whom are conservative.
So, don’t despair progressives. We will be better off under a Kevin Rudd government but not as well off as under a genuinely progressive government which probably would not be elected.
Voting Greens in the Senate will help however.
This election will produce a minimum of two – maybe three- terms for Labor. They will have a mandate to nation build. There will be a unique opportunity to build a partnership with the States. The political reality is that the Liberals and the Nationals will start to implode. The NSW right will do its thing. Up here in Queensland the Liberals will be reduced to irrelevancy. In Victoria – the spiritual home of the Libs – the Costello forces will be out for retribution. It will be like the Sunnis and Sheeites. That will be Howards legacy.
Hugo I said “could be”. Of course every new government is a clean slate and the past is another country.
If Labor wins which seems increasingly likely, then it gets a clean slate and makes its own luck and story. I recall a remark of Bob Carr’s as to why he didnt reform NSW along the lines that he never had a mandate to do so. IMO , KR in winning will be constrained in that he has adopted much of the agenda of JWH, I think it would be a brave call to move away from that especially for a party as risk adverse as Labor.
As you correctly point out much of the middle class welfare put in place is now extraordinarily difficult to remove – to name 3 – private health insurance rebate, free super (oxymoron), CGT discount as they all have powerful supporting constituencies.
So all in all I think we violently agree.
ESJ, how long after the recession did it take for the ALP to lose government in 1996?
Would you say they lost government merely due to economic management?
Oppositions don’t win elctions, Governments lose them. Rudd’s job right now is to sit quietly, smile patiently, and every now and then give Howard a gentle push towards the precipice.
I think Rudd in Government will be much more his own man than Kimbo (whom I greatly admire) could ever have been. He will probably “progress”more rapidly than, say Adam would like, but more slowly than say LTEP would wish.
Instead of us all sitting on this blog, muttering over the entrails (I hope) of the Libs, we should all be doing a bit to set a climate where “battlers” will find $10 per week into social insurance, like Health, education, IR, is better than in the hip pocket! And the best help we can have is a Government which is doing it!
I am also one of those who hope that Rudd will prove to be more progressive once in office. I completely accept that he has to play the game now in order not to be wedged – it’s a product of Howard’s politics, not necessarily Rudd’s.
But of course, if Rudd does end up overly conservative, then I will be amongst the first to start protesting.
On gay marriage, I don’t care too much for it. I am gay myself, but have no interest in trying to have a pretend heterosexual lifestyle to that extent. I do, however, believe strongly in the need for civil unions, just as do the UK, Canada, New Zealand, some states in the U.S., and many countries in Europe. They enable full equality in the eyes of the law and society in terms of the recognition of a committed relationship. Australia, once again, has fallen far behind the rest of the Western world on this one.
So, I hope that something akin to civil unions will arrive here. It will never happen through the Liberal Party, at least in its current state, due to it being hijacked by the the religious Right, but Labor gives hope at least.
At any rate, let’s judge Rudd once he is PM. For now, it is all election campaign game-playing.
LTEP 60,
In my view what this election seems to be showing is:
a) Aust Govts have a natural shelf life of about 7 years.
b) To extend the shelf life beyond that needs a poor opposition/ poor opposition policies/ good luck
c) As it goes longer beyond 7 years it gets increasingly harder to get re-elected
d) Unpopular government policies or actions can add to the resentment, eg the recession under Keating and WorkChoices under Howard.
(e) the opposition has to be seen as a “safe ” bet
Therefore Labor was in trouble from 1990 onwards but factor (b) helped it in 1990 and 1993. Factor (c) and (d) and (e) sunk it in 1996.
In Liberal’s case, it really was in trouble from 2001 onwards but (b) and (c) saved it in 2001 and 2004. In 2006 it still has (b) in terms of a poor opposition but Rudd personally makes (e) count against it and (c) (d) are also working against it.
LOL. I heard this a number of times before and in the aftermath of the 2004 election too. The truth is, the world economy and markets are unpredictable enough that now is as good as any other time for getting into power.
ESJ (59), I suspect that we are in agreement (violently or otherwise) on the matter on Rudd’s “mandate”. Comparisons have been made with the incoming Blair government in 1997, another Centre-Left party that ended up having to run on a conservative platform in order to get elected, a platform which greatly constrained the freedom of movement of Blair government during their first term.
However, Rudd has left himself a bit of wriggle room, especially if tax receipts continue to pour in. Assuming that he gets at least 3 terms (which he will do if he doesn’t stuff things up), that is more than enough time to craft a new centre-left, progressive paradigm for the 2010s.
Count down to CPI figures at 11.30…. RatesAnalyst surely you will be first to post them? =-)
Yes ESJ that seems very sensible and I agree with all of it. Personally, I can’t see all the fuss about Rudd but obviously other people can.
I think the Coalition was luck in ’01 and outplayed Labor in ’04. I suspect they will outplay Labor again in ’07 but we’ll see.
I think the people at The Oz want the inflation figure to be high so on election day their headline can be “Inflation Dooms Howard”.
“Voting Greens in the Senate will help however.”
Couldn’t agree more. The Greens NEED to have the balance of power. This country actually has a lot of progressive-minded people in it, but who often lack any voice. A good showing of Greens in the senate would act as the perfect counterbalance to conservative tendencies of a Labor government.
I suspect Rudds already comprehensively outplayed Howard, LTEP. My view is that its already too late for Team Rodent.
Having said that, you gotta give to Rodent – he wants it, and wont lie down. The pensioners move is clever, worth a point or so.
Andrew @ 45: Bill Shorten pulling Rudd to the left? Err… Sure, Gillard, Combet, even Tanner (except on some Shorten-esque economic issues) may, but Shorten’s pretty freakin’ conservative. He’s one of those who’s in the Right faction because he’s actually (comparatively) right wing. So hopefully the others will have the same effect Garrett has had.
Oops.
John Rocket @ 51:
From applying for the interdependency visa to receiving it was fairly quick actually, probably no more than 2 months. Might even have been a bit less. However, we did make use of a migration agent, which certainly streamlined the process. The crucial thing to receive the interdependency visa is having lived together for at least 12 months prior to applying. You need to present evidence you have joint bank accounts, bills, living arrangements etc.,For example, living together at somebody else’s house is not acceptable. Have to show you are mutually dependent. Then there is a second stage to the application 2 years after arrival in Australia.
Howard’s cheer squad is getting really desperate now. Following Newspoll, the Herald Sun in Melbourne has renewed its attempts to try and smear Julia Gillard, saying she hasn’t been fully honest about her past connections.
We know of course how completely honest John Howard has been about everything over the last eleven years don’t we? Hypocrytes!
2 minutes to go…
Howard finally acts on the skills shortage! The only catch is that you have to join the war against terror…
“Prime Minister John Howard has unveiled a $208 million package to boost skills in the Australian Defence Force (ADF).
The plan includes two new ADF technical colleges, one in Adelaide and one in Queensland, and more than 2,000 skills scholarship for traineeships, cadetships and work experience.
There will also be 700 new higher education and vocational education training places for students who want to work in the defence sector.”
Gay marriage has come up as an attempted wedge – thankfully Rudd hasn’t fallen for it.
I agree with Andrew @ 45 – hopefully there will be enough lefties in Cabinet to temper any overly right-wing initiatives of those more conservative members of the Government, including the PM.
I am happy for Rudd to continue to play it safe and cool. Just get into Government, guys. We can deal with the rest later.
0.7%
Damn.
cpi 0.7 ergo no interest rate rise
D’oh.
Well, at least there won’t be any excuses for Howard when he loses.
Weighted mean 1.1%
CPI 0.7%
Yeah, that’s quick. For my wife and I – it took about 18 months (and that was with the bills and proof of co-habitation!) for a spouse visa, although we didn’t use a migration agent, I don’t think it would’ve improved matters. A lot depends on the country your spouse/partner is coming from… I really got to hate dimia.
Yep – likely no rate rise, as I’ve been saying…
Labor will win with or without an interest rate rise. I don’t really understand this wishing for pain and bankruptcies in the electorate just so as Rudd can get an even bigger majority.
Paul K — we’re told an interest rate rise is almost certainly coming in the next 6 months. I’d rather Howard copped it now.
Hang on folks. it’s not that simple. They’re still discussing the underlying measures and thay don’t look so flash.
A talking head right now is confidently predicting an interest rate rise.
Weird one….. Headline is 0.7 but all the underlying measures are .9 or so.
Seem so me that there’s a big but volatile component (petrol maybe?) that has decreased in price that drags down the overall measure for Headline inflation. But the underlying measures (which are what the RBA focuses on) exclude volatile items and so the movement in that volatitle compenent is excluded.
The market sold-off, indicating that overall, the market thinks a rise in Nov is now more likely. Percentage chance rose from 50% to 80%
No, I’m happy there’ll be no interest rate rise. Don’t want to scare or panic people into voting Howard. I’m surprised the Coalition hasn’t made more use of the ‘if you think it’s bad now… which it is… how much worse could it get under Labor’.
Yes, they’ve been trying but sorta half-heartedly. Don’t want to give the everyperson any real pain to acccompany that message.
Sorry I was late guys – duty called….
Chinster
Problem is that Labor have basically blown all their finances sticking to the basic Howard agenda. Fiscally he’s basically neutered himself for his first couple of terms.
Dissappointing interest rate figure. I’m hocked up to my eyeballs but was happy to part with the cash in the national interest.
A rate hike is now the distinct favourite. David Spears is describing it as a “shocker for the government”.
RBA more influenced by underlying figure. nov 7 could still be on.
Ashley,
I understand the tactics but how can you say you’re any better than some of the right wing nutters if you don’t put the concerns of the Australain people ahead of your politics. Have you learnt anything from years of Opposition other than doing what is politcially expedient.
Doesnt that mean under the Sawford formula JWH wins?
Sure I heard 1.9 on News Radio
Rates Analyst… your first duty is to this blog, you should know that. 😉
Don’t be too sure on no rate rise guys.
The RBA Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median are both above economist expectations at 2.9% and 3.1% respectively and both 30 day and 3 year rates are up after the release.
It’ll take some fortitude for the RBA to increase, but they’ve talked the talk to date.
JWH is still on the road to a drubbing.
[Seem so me that there’s a big but volatile component (petrol maybe?) that has decreased in price that drags down the overall measure for Headline inflation. But the underlying measures (which are what the RBA focuses on) exclude volatile items and so the movement in that volatitle compenent is excluded.]
According to the ABS it was a decrease in child care costs due to the government making more people eligible for rebates.
If you take that out it would’ve been closer to 1%.
The Sawford formula is for suckers.
It doesnt matter. I think Rudd basically scuttled the any lib interest rate scare campaign with his reference to the 22% under Howard in the early 80s. The little guy was blushing when that came up – didn’t here a word of it in that lame 2004 Labor campaign…