Advertiser poll: 60-40 in Hindmarsh

The Adelaide Advertiser’s latest marginal seat poll suggests Labor’s Steve Georganas, who won his coastal inner suburbs seat of Hindmarsh by 108 votes in 2004, is likely to have a less nervous election night this time around. He leads Liberal candidate Rita Bouras 46 per cent to 32 per cent on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred. This was from an impressive sample of 714 voters, and maintains the Advertiser’s recent record of results consistent with the conventional wisdom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

59 comments on “Advertiser poll: 60-40 in Hindmarsh”

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  1. Hindmarsh whilst it has an aged population has dropped off the top of the “oldies” list as I believe it was the oldest in 2004. Don’t have any evidence of this, but its what I recall. I think Chris Gallus was postponing the inevitable when she was the local member, and I would expect this will be a strong labor seat for many years to come, as it used to be. As was pointed out in post #28, the labor margins of state seats within Hindmarsh are all well into double figures, apart from morphett which is liberal held. I can’t imagine the pensioner package will change too many votes, most of the older people are either rusted on liberal or labor.

  2. I just hope Rudd doesn’t fall into the New Labour trap in the UK of employing loads of hospital administrators. The target driven culture in the British NHS has to be seen to be believed. Some of the targets might directly help patients, but many of them are being manipulated by people with too much time on their hands.

  3. More of their ABC
    SA Local Radio 891 Matt Abraham and David Bevan. 8.45 Wednesday 24/10/07.

    Did you hear that? Tim Noonan, roving reporter, managed to get in three interviewees from the electorate of Hindmarsh. Based on the result of the Advertiser poll, and in the context of Howard’s pensioner offering.

    Matt Abraham and David Bevan, the radio heads, wanting to hear anything but Labor, disappointed, wanting a swinging voter.

    They still can’t work out that it’s not all about the swingers.

    The three voters, however. Two sounding like Labor voters, the third, refusing to divulge his usual voting pattern.

    All expressing the ‘too little, too late’ ‘here we go again’ view over what a pensioner may expect of this Government, at campaign time only ‘and after all this time.’ Very angry. ‘This time’ sounded to me that they meant election after election. Don’t believe you, anymore.

    It is as if a dam of belief, held against the odds, has burst. Taking all with it. And if three represents a community, little wonder that the poll is 60/40.

    PS Matthew Sykes. The friend I referred to earlier post said the older population is still at or near the top, can’t quite remember.

  4. Radio National . A little earlier.

    Don’t know if this was ABC’s intention, but their short method in How to Influence My Vote. (Senate)

    I listened to John Howard’s policy deal for pensioners. I listened to the various assessments by particular interest groups. I considered both, and a few elements which were not mentioned.

    I listened to Senator Bob Brown’s interview on the Green’s policy for pensioners, by ABC’s Chris Uhlman. 24/10 .

    Senator Brown put forward a sound and just argument for restoring equity and an ongoing, firm financial commitment to a reasonable pension rate and future adjustments.

    And a reasonable argument as to why and how that could be done. Transcript and audio available on ABC Radio, AM.

    Now, Senator Brown’s policy and argument seemed eminently reasonable to my ear, achievable and far more just than Mr Howard’s.

    Nevertheless, ordinarily I would have considered Senator Brown’s policy and argument in the same manner as I have described listening to Mr Howards.

    However, the aggressive, if not hostile style and questioning points of Mr Uhlman clinched it for me.

    Mr Uhlman, in point, tone and slant, epitomised the mean, penny pinching, uncaring approach this Government has consistently, increasingly and for a decade visited on not only this poor and desperately struggling part of our community, but also to all the deliberately marginalised, demonised, discarded others, suffering for political and ideological cause in our excessively wealthy economy.

  5. The advertiser is recording like 6% swing to Labor in Kingston, 10% in Hindmarsh, means Boothby (5.4% Liberal) and Sturt (6.8% Liberal) are in trouble for the Libs. They can kiss very marginal Makin goodbye too. Labor could win like 8 out of 11 seats in the state. The Liberals only hanging onto Mayo, Barker and Grey.

  6. I have a feeling based on those advertiser results, that the swing to Labor is going to be bigger in the provincial electorates and the inner city ones and more subdued in the outer suburbs. If there is a big swing to Labor there might be some oh my god seats like North Sydney, Kooyong, Higgins, Sturt, Boothby and Ryan.

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