Electorate-level Morgan data

If you’ve got a lazy four grand to spare, Roy Morgan provides subscribers with “complete computer tabulations of the questions asked analysed by a range of demographics”. This isn’t much use to most of us, so it’s pleasing to learn that “for the rest of the campaign, Crikey will be working with Roy Morgan Research to mine the data deeper”. Today we are given cumulative two-party results for the “pre-Rudd” (January to December 2006) and “Post-Rudd” (January to June 2007) eras in seats that make the top 25 by numbers of public servants, self-employed, professionals/managers and unemployed. With due caution given to Morgan’s traditional skew to Labor, the early year Rudd honeymoon period and the general quirkiness of many of the results, here is a table showing Labor’s two-party preferred vote in each period from electorates of particular interest. By my reckoning, the sample sizes for any given electorate would be about 300 pre-Rudd and 150 post-Rudd. Also from Morgan: an alternative debate worm.

Solomon 48 64.5
Moreton 49 66
Ryan 46.5 55.5
Herbert 54 62.5
Sturt 45.5 58
Cook 40 60.5
Flinders 45 51
Eden-Monaro 50.5 65
Fadden 45.5 50.5
Bowman 48 52.5
Canning 44.5 48.5
Lingiari 49 45.5
McEwen 51.5 56
La Trobe 47.5 52
Leichhardt 50 57
Forde 51 59.5
Hume 56 56.5
Moncrieff 51 54
Boothby 50 48.5
Wide Bay 45 62
Gippsland 42.5 55.5
Kooyong 47.5 52
Wentworth 51 59
Warringah 44 57.5
Higgins 49.5 56.5
Curtin 38.5 53.5
Goldstein 47 58
Bennelong 49.5 57.5
Wakefield 67.5 68
Cowper 49.5 55.5
Gilmore 49.5 59.5
Grey 59 55
Paterson 51 56
Page 48 59
Dobell 53 67
Fairfax 47.5 52.5
Longman 56 63.5
Fisher 46 61.5

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

505 comments on “Electorate-level Morgan data”

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  1. Someone in posts 1-500 has probably already pointed this out, but the average TPP for the 2007 Morgan data is about 56.5%, which is actually a little below the 58.5% that prevailed Australia-wide from the 4 pollsters at the mid point of this period. So, ovewall, the data doesn’t actually appear to be particularly biased pro-ALP.

    But there are some notably bodgy figures that seem to cancel one another out- e.g. Lingiari and Warringah; these are all probably sampling deviations. (On the other hand, the Warringah branch of the ALP got terribly excited earlier this year when they worked out that they might be able to knock over Tony Abbott with a 2-election strategy, if only they could find high-profile Independents to preference them.)

  2. Katherine West wrote a good book on the Liberal party in the early 1960s. But her the Revolution in Australian Politics (1984) is very strange, lots of pseudo-leftist rhetoric about elites and corporatism with a loopy right undercurrent.

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