The Adelaide Advertiser’s latest marginal seat poll suggests Labor’s Steve Georganas, who won his coastal inner suburbs seat of Hindmarsh by 108 votes in 2004, is likely to have a less nervous election night this time around. He leads Liberal candidate Rita Bouras 46 per cent to 32 per cent on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred. This was from an impressive sample of 714 voters, and maintains the Advertiser’s recent record of results consistent with the conventional wisdom.
thats nice
ohh i was first!
If only some of those surplus votes would leak over to Sturt 😐
Friend of mine (Labor) asked me to listen to Life Matters of Tuesday morning, as she was interviewed as a Senior’s Rep of some kind at a recent stump up for seniors in particular with Georganos and Rita Bouras.
Said she had been a bit disappointed with Mr G’s responses, namely ‘we need to do this or look at that.’
Heard about this before, sez I, recollecting it was one of the die hard Lib friends who had attended and reported. Negative same, but so.
Not heard on the interview, Labor friend though, told me that one bit, that of the novice Bouras being asked for her opinion of euthanasia, at which she visibly quailed, of Steve G gallantly saving her, saying he would take the question. Explained such matters are conscience etc.
Much admiration, apparently.
Now then … my prediction was right for Hindmarsh !
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=639&cp=7#comments
Lets just call it local knowledge !
Oh, and PS, I think you could hear the Life Matters sequence if you missed it and are interested, on ABC on line. Tuesday 23/10.
Ok its easier if I do it like this:
664
Matthew Sykes Says:
October 23rd, 2007 at 7:10 am
Here’s my prediction for the Advertiser Hindmarsh poll (appearing in the next few days):
ALP 60-40 lead.
——————
Do I win a bun or something ?
Matthew Sykes! Hubris.
c’mon … I’m gonna have to call you Glenn !
Keep watch, Bosun Matthew Sykes.
That crew from Kingston will be shooting across the bow any minute.
Including Matthew Flinders, the least competent of the Investigators.
Found this intriguing bit on the net.
In 1800 the armed ship XENOPHON was chosen by the Admiralty to be Matthew Flinders’ ship on his voyage to chart the coast of Australia. She had been built as a collier and was described as being in good condition.
Before she sailed, her name was changed to Investigator as being more fitting for a voyage of exploration and discovery.
Hence we have the annual “Investigator lecture” given at Flinders University annually from a famous graduand !
There’s that name starting with X again !
I nominate this one as anticlimactic poll of the week, after a big red cordial and lollies day on the blog post Newspoll.
Hindmarsh will not fall to the forces of darkness. I am so going to bed now.
My English is becoming poor, I think it’s bedtime ! I can relax letterboxing in Hindmarsh tomorrow night after this poll.
Matthew, good call, although it was hardly surprising. I am tipping this seat to have the biggest ALP swing in SA on election day. Some of the swings at the state election were astronomical.
“I can relax letterboxing in Hindmarsh tomorrow night after this poll.”
You’re clearly doing a brilliant job there Matthew. Sorry for trivialising what must be a very happy poll for you. Sleep well.
I picked the 60 out of the air anyway, i thought it would be over 55 with about 95% certainty. Was getting a bit footloose with the 60.
Yes, its more of a natural labor seat anyway, plenty of old labor types plus some lattes thrown in around henley beach/grange areas. I agree, a double digit swing is not impossible in Hindmarsh, in fact its quite likely.
Matthew, did you work on the last Hindmarsh campaign? If so can you give a bit of insight in to the differences in resources for the campaign this time around as compared to the last election?
Yep, course at 11 graduand, Matthew. Keep the good work. No lose, I reckon, esp with your Endeavour.
Kev, unfortunately I was living in the UK in 2004, and voted at Australia House on the Strand.
Keep up, I mean.
The only thing I can say is the liberal candidate Rita Bouras is very poor compared to the articulate 2004 candidate Simon Birmingham, who is now of course a senator.
Yes, Matthew. I gathered she is a lawyer, but sounded less skilled as the Front Bench flock.
Congrats Matthew Sykes, as soon as I saw the result I thought… now I remember someone saying it would be that.
Senator Simon Birmingham manages to always sound like a school debating team captain. Still… I suppose it’s better than a lot of the other SA Lib senators (eg. Minchin, Bernardi)
Caption contest: what is Howard saying on the phone?
“Hey Reith, have you still got any of those phone cards left ?”
Thinking of South Australia, I wonder if Xenephon will stop the Coalition from being capable of forcing a DD post election ?
Is his mob running for both houses, given his result in the State election I probably would.
Maybe JWH had seats like Hindmarsh in mind with his grey voter sweetener policy yesterday coughing up 500.00 pa for utility bills. I don’t think it will influence the outcome of Labor held seats like Hindmarsh.
However, it might prop up Coalition marginals that come down to a handful of votes if grandparents decide that an extra 360.00 a year in their pocket is more important/relevant to them than their offsprings pain from WorkChoices. At least until Rudd does yet another ‘me-too-but’.
It’s not really so surprising, given the general swing and the fact that nobody nobody thinks any Labor marginals are at risk other than in WA.
What is interesting is that the swing has been so healthy with Hindmarsh having just about the oldest demographic of any seat. The oldies are just about the only demographic holding up (more or less) for Howard. They were the hope for defending other marginals such as Dobell and Robertson. If they too are gone, things are looking very grim for the Libs.
The other implication is that Labor in SA has now recovered from the long punishment it received from the State Bank failure. Might even be a bit of the reverse with the Libs suffering for electricity and water privatisation.
Here’s how the state seats look:
Morphett – Lib 5.4%.
Elder – ALP 14.9%, Ashford – ALP 16.1%, Colton – ALP 16.3%, West Torrens – ALP 18.3%.
The Libs advantage in the past was Chris Gallus. She was popular and active. I went to an afternoon at her office (nowhere near an election) at which she answered questions and helped a few people get jobs. If I lived there I would have voted for her despite my dislike of the Libs.
Don is right about the ages: 6.4% of Aussies are aged 75+. In Hindmarsh it’s 11.74%.
Aged 60+: Aust 21.2%, Hindmarsh 30.1%.
Maybe the Advertiser realises the inevitability and magnitude of the ALP win. Therefore the closer to the election the more accurate they will be. Which gives them credit for the next election.
10% swing to Labor since 2004. If this was replicated across SA, even Lord Downer could be in some trouble.
Is Helen Dalley the worst political TV host in Australia? Mind-numbingly irritating.
Chris Pyne heavily supported Simon Birmingham in Hindmarsh last time. This time he’s busy tryin g to save his own skin.
Birmingham’s supporters handing out the how-to-vote cards at Grange Primary at the last election, when asked where he went to school, said ‘around here somewhere’ (liars)
Georganas is quite popular here, he seems like a good bloke, even though it was supposedly the narrowest ALP seat (by 108 votes last time??) it doesn’t “feel” marginal here.
lots of oldies though my goodness, and yet the local primary here at grange has 500+ students and is very popular for people not in the boundary as well.
nobody ever polls me (sniff)
Barbara I agree, Georganas is very popular. I think the ALP would have lost this seat at the last election had he not been their candidate.
Matthew
Would you care to make a prediction in Sturt? Does anyone want to project Sturt basedon the corresponding State results? I know Pyne has a substantial margin but he has done nothing locally and Mia Handshin seems a capable candidate.
BTW, changing the subject to Sturt if I may, I was amazed by Chris Pyne’s mail-out spin on his promises. He said he was trying to “solve” the Brittania roundabout, a notorious local road junction. I don’t see how? It is a State/Council road intersection. No State planning study has been completed with an agreed solution; the State has not allocated funds, and it isn’t even on the commonwealth’s Auslink network! In other words, Pyne is promising something that he hasn’t even put in the pork barrell! Absurd.
At least the Advertiser’s seat polls are mostly in line with statewide polling, unlike the Westpolls.
Any idea when the A.B.S. releases the inflation figure?
congrats Matthew, well done, now if we could direct some of the surplus votes to Dolly’s seat that would be wonderful, fancy election night if we could get rid of the two ponces– Dolly AND Pyne, i’d drink a bottle of champers to that all on my own!
Not a surprising result from Hindmarsh at all. From what I hear, the Liberal candidate (Rita Bouras) hasn’t been anywhere near as active in Hindmarsh as Georganas.
I still however doubt that we will see a swing of this proportion (10%) across the entire state.
I believe the Inflation figure is to be released in 18 minutes!
Socrates: My gut feeling in Sturt is that Labor won’t quite get over the line, although I HOPE I’m wrong. Ok so here’s my prediction: Sturt goes down to postals, and Pyne wins narrowly. Pyne to win 51-49. I’d suggest that Sturt may well be one of the most marginal liberal seats after the election.
and what do you all you alp crow-eaters say about boothby? is barbie cornes going to cost you a seat you might otherwise have been well and truly on track to win?
I think contrary to their intentions, the media is helping Nicole Cornes. If they had have run a few stories and left her be, doubt may have been sown in people’s minds about her ability as a candidate. The silliness of the more recent stories about her is starting to make people feel sorry for her. The Australian sense of a fair go is playing a part here, and I think people are starting to think that the media are being too harsh on her. I drive through the suburbs around boothby every day, and see no reason why this one can’t swing enough to make it a close call. I suspect if a few people don’t like her they may vote for someone else and send Nicole their preference.
Looks like SA is going to be a lib basket case. What is the likelihood I wonder of a Labor win in Boothby or Sturt?
Next to none.
To be very boring Michael, I would suggest that Boothby and Sturt are genuine 50-50 chances. As far as I’m concerned 3 seats is a job well done in SA for the ALP, 4 is a bonus, 5 outstanding, and anything more astronomical.
From the talk of the town in Boothby, Nicole won’t make it. It’s not 50-50. People say they are genuinely insulted when they talk about Nicole Cornes in Boothby. They feel like they were given a dud candidate- whether she is capable or not, thats what people are saying.
Just look at the Advertiser poll done in Boothby a month back (the same Advertiser polls most of you claim as clear evidence about the other SA seats) . Nicole was sitting on less than 30% primary. Even with generous preferences, this isn’t going to be enough to get her across the line.
You plebeian Howard Hater how dare you, how dare you suggest that I am under threat. Member for Mayo is an inherited title passed to me by my dear Papa. I shall petition the Queen (my dear Aunt Betty) if the voters through me out, she’ll put things right.
As we know though Matthew Flinders, the chattering classes don’t decide many electorate outcomes. However, I’m happy to admit that Sturt is probably more likely to fall than Boothby. My guess is neither will fall, but it will nevertheless be close.
Matthew Sykes, I completely agree, it is not the chattering classes that decide, but there is a larger sentiment than would be usually expected coming from Boothby voters.
I don’t think either will fall but you are correct, Sturt will be a much closer result. Pyne is up against a very worthy candidate. I also have no doubt that if Nicole Cornes had not been the candidate for Boothby, that the polling would show a much stronger Labor result, however, this is not the case.
All in all Boothby and Sturt are most likely going to be retained by the Liberals.
I would have been interested to see a poll from Hindmarsh now that the $4bn pensioner package has been announced, especially considering the aged demographic of Hindmarsh.