D-day minus 31

Hinkler (Qld, Nationals 8.8%): Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for this Bundaberg-based seat, Garry Parr, is suffering a campaigning boycott from members of the Left and Unity (“Old Guard”) factions. Parr is backed by the Labor Forum (AWU) faction, whose chieftain Bill Ludwig has evidently put a few noses out of joint. Former Labor Forum members Brian Courtice, who held the seat from 1987 to 1996, and Greg McMahon, a one-time branch secretary and candidate at the 1998 state election, have said they will not vote for Parr in protest at Ludwig’s “bully boy” approach. Courtice was expelled from the party in 2005 for leaking party documents to state Nationals MP Rob Messenger, which purportedly exposed the “siphoning” of $7,000 in branch funds. At around this time, Courtice’s wife Marcia was sacked from her job with state Bundaberg MP Nita Cunningham, which she claimed to be in revenge for her husband’s actions. Marcia Courtice reportedly had the backing of local branches for the Bundaberg preselection going into the 2006 election, but the party’s union-appointed electoral college instead imposed former nurse Sonja Cleary. McMahon ran against Cleary as an independent, and the seat fell by a narrow margin to Nationals candidate Jack Dempsey, who was assisted by the fallout over the Bundaberg Hospital “Dr Death” scandal.

Blair (Liberal 5.7%): The Courier-Mail reports that the largesse being heaped on this crucial electorate, which covers most of Ipswich and rural areas beyond, is “starting to cause angst in Coalition ranks”. Specifically, Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce has criticised the decision to spend $2.3 billion on the Goodna bypass as the government’s solution to congestion on the Ipswich Motorway. Blair was also the target of yesterday’s announcement by Mark Vaile of $700 million in Auslink funding for a second crossing of the Toowoomba Range, located in neighbouring Groom.

McEwen (Vic, Liberal 6.4%): The Age reports of yet more marginal seat road funding, this time in Fran Bailey’s traditionally precarious electorate beyond Melbourne’s north-eastern outskirts. Peter Costello appeared in the electorate yesterday announcing $80 million in AusLink funding for road bridges on a yet-to-be-built extension of the Epping rail line to South Morang.

Charlton (NSW, Labor 8.4%): Sitting member Kelly Hoare, who was first dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU secretary Greg Combet and then humiliated with sexual harrassment claims, is “considering” following Gavan O’Connor’s footsteps and attempting to hold her Hunter Valley seat as an independent. She has until the closure of nominations next Thursday to make up her mind.

Wentworth (NSW, Liberal 2.6%): Danielle Ecuyer, investment banker and environmental activist, has confirmed she will run for Malcolm Turnbull’s seat as an independent. This prospect has attracted considerable attention as she is a former partner of the Labor candidate, George Newhouse.

Maranoa (Qld, Nationals 21.0%): Labor has dumped its candidate for this unwinnable rural Queensland seat, Shane Guley, after his reputation for robust behaviour as a union official emerged as a political liability. This didn’t seem to bother anybody when he ran at the 2004 election, at which time his colourful history was noted on this website.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

591 comments on “D-day minus 31”

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  1. 444
    Kina Says:
    October 24th, 2007 at 4:07 pm
    It is about time the media came clean and ran the true story of the ’smoke and mirrors’ BS that the LNP have been good economic managers.

    They need to point out clearly that our economic strength comes from:

    1. hawke/keating reforms

    The media did come clean on it this afternoon for the first time. Bob Hawke was on Agenda with David Spears and Spears let him tell the whole story and nothing but the whole story. Hawke even told the exact amount of the budget defecit he inherited from the outgoing Liberal treasurer 🙂 as he was briefed on it on his first day in office and he was also told that there had never been a bigger defecit in Australian history. He said ‘we had to fix it’ and ‘fix it we did’. Spears sat back and let him say it all :):):)

  2. I don’t know if this is so true, but here’s my bit of pop-psych before I go get something to eat:

    If you live in Australia, New Zealand, the UK, the USA and then some, you are raised on the idea of a welfare state, of a New Deal, etc, etc. Not in a pejorative sense, but in a sense of cradle-to-the-grave education, health, etc. Labour laws, a 40 hour working week, etc, etc – [icture striking workers in cloth hats with billboard being whacked by policemen on horseback. The elecotral division you live in is more likely than not to be named after an explorer, pioneer, social radical or somesuch. Think of stories of battlers on wharves, and the like. It’s part of the Australian myth (again, not in the pejorative sense). And Workchoices is a betrayal of that story. Australia has a very strong idea of what it is. A land carved by blahblah hard working blahblah and a fair go for all, amen.

    Which is to say: IT’S NOT THE ECONOMY, stupid.

  3. [“Pyne to hold Sturt by 2% 51/49″

    Saying that he loses, and Mia Handshin, Kate Ellis and Nicole Cornes win, who will get that house seat right behind Rudd in the camera’s line of sight?]

    Take your pick, they’re all fiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnneeeee.

    Ellis is the senior hot member from S.A., so it’s hers to lose.

  4. Triffid Says:
    Although I’m also keen for a Labor win, there’s something a bit sad about all of the carry on in this forum about massive wins etc with still 4.5 weeks to go.

    Well I did say there would still be 3 independents, so I think you’re drawing a long bow there. Next thing you know Glen will be accusing me of hubris.

  5. Will at 500

    That press release looked like a precursor for something.

    I smell a joint Premiers/Rudd presser coming up with a huge infrastructure program where the States take on half the expenditure.

    Double the bang for half the budget pressure.

  6. David Charles

    Certainly not having a go at LTEP, good contributor, but surely the Labor lose by 5 thing is just having a bet each way. When Labor wins will he say “I always knew they’d get up”, and the prediction is just an insurance policy in case of disaster? Anyone who has wished for the Rodent to get his just deserts for some time has to be scarred, so it’s completely understandable, but like Possum and others I’m prepared to put the crown jewels down.

    LTEP – 85 minimum for Labor has been my tip for a while and I think it’s conservative. I’d be happy with 75 though.

  7. Ashley @ 480,

    Making predictions along the lines of the early Canadian election in the 90’s is bold ……. I think that there will be a huge sweep but don’t think that those entrenched like Nelson, for example, will be turfed out even in the current climate …..

  8. Just loved Bob Hawkes suggestion to Howard that he should divert some of his road funding promises to the Syrian Govt to reimburse them for him wearing out their “road to Damascus” with all his late minute conversions.

  9. David

    Re “Bonn fide pessimists are well informed optimists”

    I can see what you mean but I’d substitute ‘pesimist’ with scepticist

    Ie Bonna fide scepticists are well informed optimists. There’s nothing objective about pessimists – they’re just routinely negative. Scepticism on the other hand implies a willingness to be embrace doubt in lieu of finding the truth (to use a quaint old expression).

    In LTEP case, I think if he was sceptical he would still be able, based on the facts, to reach a fairly balanced and objective view that Labor are going to win in a canter – and therefore be able to contemplate getting up on the table in a drunken romp on election night etc as many of us are committed to doing

  10. 165
    Swing Lowe Says:
    October 24th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
    – “EXCEPT Howard took credit for lower interest rates in 2004. This is his problem – it was wrong for him to take credit back then and it is wrong to blame him for the rise now – but as they say, “If you live by the sword, you die by the sword”.”

    IMO this just blows Costelloe’s credibility out of the water. He can’t say, “I’m not responsible for this”and then say that he’s got a good track record.. like the elephant said to the mouse “Snookered, pal”

    I’d love to be Swan on Tuesday “Let’s not take credit for the past over which we had no control. Let’s have policies for the future, and be prepared to meet the ups and downs as they come”

  11. A marginal seat profile on Skynooz just caught my eye – Petrie.

    It’s interesting that the first issue the ALP candidate mentioned was the “water shortage”.

    Rudd has only announced some small biccies policy on this so far.

    But that ALP lass in Petrie isnt the first Qld ALP candidate I’ve heard talk about the water shortage as an issue right up there with Workchoices.

    Looks like a fairly considerable Rudd promise is in the pipeline (pardon the pun)

  12. Hawke also suggested this about a Republic down the road [and since he has Rudd’s ear in some respects, I am sure Rudd will listen too]

    Suggested framing the question when it comes {and Rudd has promised it is coming} in the form of a sleeper clause in the constitution.

    1. Are in favor of a Republic if that Republic wouldn’t come into existence until the end of the current monarch’s reign? {So keeping Elizabeth however long that is and then going Republic at that point}

  13. [IMO this just blows Costelloe’s credibility out of the water. He can’t say, “I’m not responsible for this”and then say that he’s got a good track record.. like the elephant said to the mouse “Snookered, pal”]

    He has to wait until after then election, then he can blame anything and everythign on Howard!

    Rudd will counter, and blame it on Costello’s gutlessness / dickheadery.

  14. 506 Possum
    There was always going to be a BIG joint state/federal co-operative federalism announcement on infrastructure to counter Howard’s blame game and wall to wall Labor Govt’s. It will involve very big co-operative announcements on Health, Education, Water and Energy for climate change. Will be the final nail in the coffin IMO.

  15. I think things could get out of hand on Tuesday. The thing with Costello is his sense of entitlement is huge as is his brewing mortification at the way he has been used and abused by Howard. It makes for a highly unstable cocktail – as you saw when he attended the debate, when interviewed by Barry Cassidy last sunday etc. On the 7:30 report last night he again disgraced himself by saying who would you prefer me or (snivelling smirk) Wayne swan. I get the feeling this interest rate rise and the fact that Swan’s going to belt him over the head with it could push the smirk into some pretty unhinged behaviour.

  16. [There was always going to be a BIG joint state/federal co-operative federalism announcement on infrastructure to counter Howard’s blame game and wall to wall Labor Govt’s. It will involve very big co-operative announcements on Health, Education, Water and Energy for climate change. Will be the final nail in the coffin IMO.]

    Howard’s scare campaign on all Labor governments is completely bogus. A good federal government should be able to co-operate with the states irrespective of whether it is Liberal or Labor. It makes just as much sense that we should kick Howard out for being unable and unwilling to co-operate with state and territory Labor governments.

  17. I’m cautiously optimistic about Nov. 24, much more so that a lot of my other ‘leftie’ friends (mainly due to the excellent work of Possum). One of the main fears to people my age (27/28) is that Howard has been in power the entire time we’ve been eligible to vote. We’ve wanted him gone every single time, but he’s gotten over the line, or moved the posts (ala-Tampa) every single time so far.

    Interestingly, my father reports that he’s just been polled, and he lives in Aston…deep morgage-belt, ‘conservative values’ territory. Could the swing really be on in Melbourne?

    Anyhoo, all of these developments will certainly put the spring in my step for tonights’ letterboxing (for the Greens ;-). Got invited in for dinner last night, but not really surprising in my area (fed. seat of Melbourne).

  18. [My wife has spotted the great man Hawkie at the Five Dock (Sydney) shops, huge crowd (as ever) around the great man!]

    Hawke also brings out the crowds in WA – hence his use at the launch of Gary Gray’s campaign in Brand.

    He was also used to good effect in the last WA State Election campaign as well.

    I notice WA libs have been very quiet about the federal poll – not surprising considering the approval ratin g of it’s leader 🙂

  19. I’m on LTEP’s (BTW presume you were CTEP) side. My brother-in-law who’s a CA still goes on about interest rates being higher under Labor and that the Libs are better at managing the economy. If he does not understand interest rates and see the benefits of the Hawke-Keating reforms, how can we convince the lay voter. The polls figures are sometimes too good to be true. I just hope it’s not the work of some hackers!

  20. Looks like Rudd called on the right past PM to help him out. Latham chose Whitlam and that scared people and Keating still has a bad name outside of the party faithful. Hawke’s is willingness to kick the boot in to Howard is just fantastic. He also helps break down the whole union bosses are bad for the economy theory.

  21. Frank Calabrese – “I notice WA libs have been very quiet about the federal poll – not surprising considering the approval rating of it’s leader.” Same here in Victoria.

  22. Oh, and to follow up on my post, can people see Hawkie saying ‘Any boss who sacks his employees for not turning up on Monday is a bloody bum’ if there is a win for the ALP on Nov 24?

  23. Ashley: 147 seats for Labor is rather unlikely, but I love your optimism.
    More sober prediction:
    ALP 79
    COALITION 68
    INDEPENDENTS 3(including Forrest).

  24. JC at 522,

    You’ll be interested to know that every second or third day I seem to get about 10-20 emails from the residents of safe and safe-ish seats in Victoria (just like Aston, but also Kooying, Goldstein, Higgins and Casey) telling me they’ve just been polled, or that their neighboour/relative/friend etc has just been polled.

    And what makes it interesting is that its usually internal polling (if the company name of the pollster wasn’t given, you can usually tell by the questions).

    So both sides of politics are thinking something is up way down in Mexico.

  25. Will someone please shoot the next person who claims that Australian interst rates are low?

    According to the OECD, the following countries have higher rates than Australia:

    Hungary
    Iceland
    Mexico
    New Zealand
    Indonesia
    South Africa

    Everyone else in the OECD has lower rates.

    Apart form a couple of good rugby nations I see very little in that group to recommend it, in terms of economic success. The UK, the rest of Europe, Scandinavia, the US, everyone has higher rates.

    This is according to the Q2-07 data. Our rates have risen once since then altready, and that’s not counting the Nov rate rise that looks very likely.

    http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?querytype=view&queryname=86

    NZ and Iceland make the list because of “mining boom” type problems – namely dairy and oil respectively.

  26. Yeah, see, I know all online polls are degrees of dumb but out of the these polls – I think this coredata one is the best, insofar as you can’t run a script to vote/vote/vote. You could still flush your cookies but… you can’t cheat this one easily. Having said that it’s still meaningless.

  27. Ashley: 147 seats for Labor is rather unlikely, but I love your optimism.

    HH — you’re right.

    Upon more sober consideration I’ve revised my estimate to 146. Nicole Cornes will fail to win her seat after she tells reporters she is planning on voting for Howard again because “he can keep interest rates low”.

  28. Possum@513 : My 78yo dad lives in Petrie (Redcliffe) and he senses that Beattie’s council mergers will be a factor there – as he says, “Silly old buggers! They don’t like the council, they just care about keeping the name.”

    It can get like that in Qld… anyway he expects Gambaro to hang on, much against his wishes.

  29. 533
    Gary Bruce Says:
    October 24th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
    Sportsbet – Labor $1.38 Coalition $3.00

    Just out of curiousity, has the fall out for the Libs been reflected in Bennelong yet? 🙂

  30. Mia Handshin,Kate Ellis and Nicole Cornes are indeed very feminine examples of SA politics…….but they don’t quite cut it with the Lib variety.

    Lord Downer and Mr Pyne are still the feminine heavyweights of that quaint place we call Adelaide.

  31. Lindsay Voter @ 524 – I agree with your comments – I’m a CPA in a finance department full of CPA’s & CA’s & its staggering to note their lack of understanding of our economy & their “blind” intention to vote Liberal.

    Though I also suspect they may historically be Liberal voters (for either class or the fact that parents have always voted that way) & no matter what evidence you throw at them, they’d never change for fear of betraying their perceived class or family tradition.

  32. Did the RBA push up mortgage interest rates today?

    Anyone.. Theres been a lot of comments about the issue so Im thinking maybe something happened today. I’m thinking we wont hear anything till the RBA Board meet in Nov..but I’m often wrong.

  33. Bluebottle @ 543,

    No – the RBA won’t push up interest rates until it meets on 6th November, with the decision as to whether interest rates remain steady or go up by 0.25% coming out on the morning of the 7th.

  34. Thank you Swing Lowe- your always on the money [accurate].

    Meantime, I wonder what the Hicks Fix will do; maybe do alittle damage to one of the Coalition’s trump cards [National security:Terrorism] which Rudd carefully danced around on debate night_ held my breath hoping and praying he took a zero tolerance, march em out and shoot em approach, and he did.. phew !!

    Channel Eddy is reporting the RBA is definitely planning to up interest rates on Nov 6th, oops JWH, nowhere to hide on that one… Bluebottle runs his highlighter through outer suburban mortgage belts seats JWH has collected since 1996.. interesting.

  35. Let it End

    You said earlier that Howard will not go the distance.

    I wonder if it goes something like this: The Liberal Party knew Howard was its only chance at winning this election. Costello unelectable. Fly in ointment. John’s crook. OK. Prop him up, win election, election night big speech reveal all, retire, pass to … er, anyone. The hero retires hurt. Much clapping and bowing to the great master.

  36. If Interest Rates rise on November 3, i presume the advertisements with JWH bombasting in Parliament that “working families have never been better off” will make quite a splash from Nov 4 to 24th.

    i was watching Parliament that fateful day earlier in the year when Howie blurted it out and i don’t know who was more shocked, Me,the Labor frontbench or the helpless schmuck Tip sitting behind the PM.

    It truly was a stupid thing to say, especially in Parliament.

    Just perfect material for a campaign ad, and esp now with 2 rate rises since .
    As Lib hack office would say…..Hubris

  37. Ch 9 news, Laurie Oakes, has just shown another of Howard’s “senior moments” where he announced his skills plan through to 1916 🙂

  38. Let it End @ 497

    “You need to review your maths, I said a 20 seat majority which is 84/64 not 95”

    Sorry, I think I’m getting confused. Do we count the independents as neglible in an ‘x seat majority’? If so your statement of 84/64 would be fine. Otherwise we’d need to say, the ALP wins 84 seats which gives them 18 seats over the others combined.

    If we did exclude the independents we’d get a sitaution where, in the even that the ALP wins 75 seats, the Coalition would have 73, and we’d term it a 2 seat majority, when in fact they don’t have a majority of the seats at all.

    I always thought it made more sense just to imagine independents siding with the Opposition, making it the case that winning 76 seats gave you a 2 seat clear majority. This would make your prediction of a 20 seat majority, an ALP win of 85 seats.

    I’m a maths graduate so I really should have known my original number was wrong! That’s what you happen when you switch your brain off.

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