• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.
• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.
• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.
• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.
I don’t get the tactic behind this. Rudd should just do the debate now. Stories on him refusing to do it will just look bad and emphasise him looking smug.
So far, to me, this campaign is markedly worse for the ALP than ’04.
Leave a little of the post sticking out above the sign, paint it black, embed a (wide-angle) camera in it, beam or cable pictures or frames back to a storage unit. That will give you a look at the perpetrators.
That goes for all political parties/candidates. Let democracy do its work.
Ad @491
“just had my Maxine sign in my front yard replaced for the third time, after being graffiti’d. thought the brethren were doing it ”
Keep an eye out for blokes wearing pig masks like they did last time, brethren were very vocal for Howard in benelong before, including disrupting meetings, letterboxing and funds, about $140,000 graciuosly spent in Benelong to help howard.
[I don’t get the tactic behind this. Rudd should just do the debate now. Stories on him refusing to do it will just look bad and emphasise him looking smug.]
Sure, but stories of Howard not allowing the worm make him look like a petty loser.
494
Mark Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 9:21 pm
Bluebottle #483, I think you are on the money with Rudd’s demeanor and tactics. Are sure about QLD though?
As you would know Mark nothing is sure in politics except that the landscape can change in 2 seconds: remember Hewson stumbling over the GST on the birthday cake and candles or the death knell of the female vote when Latham assaulted Howard’s hand at the radio station or 9/11 or ….
What I am saying is I remain sceptical at this point in time about the doom and gloom prospects of Labor gains in QLD.
I would be looking not at the marginals which is the logical place but so called ‘safe’ seats like Blair and Bowman and Ryan and Dickson and [nominally] Flynn.
The QLD parochialism factor is highly underestimated in my view {Rudd, Swan} this time around as it was with Hanson years ago; we are a weird mob up here that do strange things against National trends, but to the extent that Labor only gains 1-2 seats, I don’t think we are that weird.
LTEP [I don’t get the tactic behind this. Rudd should just do the debate now.]
Do not fret. The ALP is playing the right way. They cannot keep (the Govt.) for the entire campaign.
G’day Amber
Looks like your dog scrambling on a slippery surface is still looking that bit of ledge that will give him a bit of grip.
One other thing. I hope Rudd refers to Howard as “John”. I never understand why the opposition leader, whoever it is, refers to Howard as “Prime Minister”. I don’t think it is easy to beat someone in a debate by refering to them via the title that you wish you had yourself.
BB @ 504. So are you saying “We can count on a Queenslander?”
I think Rudd should do the debate but for the rest of the week keep mentioning that Howard is afraid of the worm. He doesn’t want to be seen to be judged.
I would say also, OK I have agreed to your debate, now 2 weeks out I am going to organise a debate in X location – pick a marginal seat and invite 1000 people off the electoral roll to attend.
G’day Arbie, we’ll know in 40 days 🙂 Reckon he’ll find some purchase before then?
Why should labor jump when Howard says.
Labor can release its tax policy when it is right to do so, it can debate Howard on terms it feels are right, it can determine what the issues are in the election as well as Howard.
Howard can put his view and Rudd and labor can put theirs, neither is obliged to jump when the other says.
Labor wants 3 open debates, Howard wants 1 closed one, why shouldn’t Howard be moving to accomodate labor?
Labor released a policy on excess federal land for housing, where’s Howards response to that?
No Amber
I reckon everytime he looks like finding a bit of purchase Rudd pours a bit more oil on the surface.
[Labor can release its tax policy when it is right to do so, it can debate Howard on terms it feels are right, it can determine what the issues are in the election as well as Howard.]
Sure. I think Rudd should arrange other debates other than the one on Sunday.
However, he has to go to that one. He just can’t miss out on the free air time.
I think Queenslanders will back Rudd just cause he a Queenlander and to the extent that this election comes down to a presidential decision in the mind of swinging voters Rudd will beat Howard in most people’s minds up here, yes.
Therefore, we may find seats going to Labor in Qld for different reasons than they will be for other States/seats, yes sir. !
Goodness me, haven’t we gotten ourselves into a lather, this early into the campaign? I refer you to Possum’s analysis of the long term trend. Campaigns tend to build on existing trends. The Libs. come out with the ‘life changing’ tax changes, and then are obliterated in the MSM by that stupid footballer from the West getting investigated for (now charged, I understand) for reverting to old habits. I personally, love the idea/image of Howard turning up to talk for an hour and a half to the faithful, with a no show from Rudd. Maybe stupid footballers and their effect on election campaigns would be a useful Ph.D. research topic?
PS: If Rudd does a ‘me too’ on tax policy I think Im going to puke. He MUST be different on this one or he will look like a clown.
Hi, my name is Kevin, I’m from Queensland and I’m here to help.
Don’t fret anyone. Us Queenslanders won’t let Ruddie down.
We canetoads have a great appetite for eating up Liberal cockroaches.
Exclusive Brethren tip. When you see them go and talk to them, follow them and keep talking to them. Tell them you’re gay. Talk dirty to them, that will drive them away.
Do the Fundies First get support from the EB?
LTEP @ 501: have to disagree with you there. Sure yesterday was bad because of the tax policy from the other mob, but today’s housing affordability thing was fine – the day probably went to Labor I would think, although they haven’t fired any big shots yet.
Rudd will turn up. The ABC is showing the debate as well – they won’t do the worm I think.
On a sadder note, I saw Albrectsen on Sky today and I hate to say this, but she looks pretty good for a political commentator – better than the sphere of influence at least. Same about the bile she spouts.
At least we know the EBs won’t be helping with Chris Pynes campaign
Maybe stupid footballers and their effect on election campaigns would be a useful Ph.D. research topic?
Very funny. I did mine on youthism [age discrimination against young people] using the Australian labour market history as my test site, and a freind of mine who did hers on 20th Century Mysticism told me “You are a weird man D..” . Go figure.
What did that footballer get charged with ? Handing out HTV cards for the Marijuana Party ?
“just had my Maxine sign in my front yard replaced for the third time, a
after being graffiti’d. thought the brethren were doing it”
Sounds like a little CCTV investment might pay huge dividends. A bit of footage of the EB doing Howad’s dirty work would play well on ACA.
{Talk dirty to them, that will drive them away.}
Yeah, probably, just after they have knocked most of your front teeth out.
Haven’t you seen these guys in action on various current affairs programs. They are quite happy to play rough.
Latter Day Saints Missionaries they aint.
Sounds like an electrified post might be the go. “It’s Time” …..to meet your maker”.
I’m glad I’m gay then Burgey, at least I can think of Albrechtsen as an unattractive bile fountain.
[Do the Fundies First get support from the EB?]
No, Family First is supported by the Assembly of God churches (e.g. Hillsong in N.S.W., Paradise Community in S.A.) which are I believe pentecostal.
MT @ 527 – good point. I may have to switch sides 🙂
Rudd mocks Libs’ L-plate theme in new ad
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22595298-5001021,00.html
525 Scorpio That would look good on election day.
Whats on Lateline tonight, not Dolly of Mayo again please.
Shows on –
i know FF is backed by the Assemblies of God – just wondering whether given the EB are extermist religious zealots whether they would have a natural affiliation with another such group?
533 jen Yes they do have an affiliation its called the Liberal Party.
I wonder if the Advertiser will have a specific seat poll tomorrow ? Wednesday has been the day for the last 3 weeks … I’m guessing they will go for Kingston next … or possibly Grey.
When the EB had the meeting with Howard did they bring their lunch in that little paper bag?
The Assemblies of God control Australian Idol, they have 4 members in it. They have had one winner. Guy Sebastion
One of the Happy Clappers went last night:-)
🙂
Chris B
cute!
BB @ 505
Bowman is no “safe” seat”.
Laming is a seriously weird guy. And private polling has shown most people know about his “spending issues”.
Ink it in as a Labor win. He’s gone.
AoG is from the Creationalist form of thought or Intelligent Design. After all the Theory of Evolution is only a theory.
If I were Rudd I would ignore Howard’s “debate” and I would hold a big function in Bennelong at the same time as the “debate” with Maxine and a live audience of Bennelong voters and all the TVs invited. That’d fix him.
{533 jen Yes they do have an affiliation its called the Liberal Party.}
Loved this quote about them by a poster on another site in June.
{One should never forget Bob Ellis’ maxim “All Liberals lie…all the time†. They have to. There’s fewer of them than there are workers; parasites always try and ‘fool’ their hosts, afterall.}
Fits the EB well too.
I hope you are right Winston.
535
Matthew Sykes Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 10:08 pm
I wonder if the Advertiser will have a specific seat poll tomorrow ? Wednesday has been the day for the last 3 weeks … I’m guessing they will go for Kingston next … or possibly Grey
Matthew have you seen anything recent on Boothby. Cornes was a very bad choice of candidate going on her performances to date. Waste of a very winnable seat if you ask me.
[AoG is from the Creationalist form of thought or Intelligent Design. After all the Theory of Evolution is only a theory.]
This is true. Dennis Hood, a Family First member in the S.A. parliament, is a declared creationist.
Adam Says: @ 543,
{If I were Rudd I would ignore Howard’s “debate†and I would hold a big function in Bennelong at the same time as the “debate†with Maxine and a live audience of Bennelong voters and all the TVs invited. That’d fix him.}
He should announce it tomorrow. I bet there would be a very quick cancellation of any self debate by Howard in the Great Hall of the People.
I prefer to think the wife grew from bacteria 🙂
Bluebottle: The last Boothby poll was published in the Advertiser about 2 or 3 weeks back, from memory it had Nicole Cornes trailing Southcott by about 46-54. It’s a shame Chloe Fox didn’t stand again, she would have won in a canter. She managed a mere 14% swing to her in the 2006 state election in Bright after a decent swing standing in Boothby in 2004. I wouldn’t write Cornes off, but she’s up against it.
And John Clarke could come along and pretend to be Howard and KR could debate him.